April 29, 2013
Weather

An upper level cutoff low pressure center advertised over the Midwest this week remains the single
most important weather event of the two weeks coming. Cutoff low pressure centers can be a
problem at any time, but especially during the planting season in a year in which fieldwork is already
behind schedule. They produce persistent shower activity over multiple days and produce cooler than
usual temperatures. Fieldwork will be disrupted this week with most Midwestern crop areas to be
impacted at one time or another by the storm. The Plains states will be impacted, as well.

Rain begins from the upper level low pressure center in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota and
Wisconsin Tuesday and Wednesday and will remain through the coming weekend. The persistent
precipitation will prevent fieldwork and will saturate the soil in some areas that have not been
saturated. Flooding will be a potential problem in areas that are already too wet

Temperatures will drop notably below average across the Plains States and western Corn Belt
during mid- to late week this week. Highs in the western Corn Belt may be limited to the upper 40s
and 50s with lows in the upper 20s and 30s reducing soil temperatures below the minimum for seed
germination.

Frost and freezes will return to the central U.S. Plains Thursday raising some potential for at least a
minor amount of crop damage in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado as extreme lows slip into the upper
20s and 30s with a few middle 20s Fahrenheit possible. The coldest conditions will abate Friday, but
temperatures will continue well below average over the western Corn Belt and a part of the Plains

Very warm to hot weather is expected to impact the central and eastern U.S. Midwest Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s and 80s Fahrenheit. Highs over 80 will occur as far north as
Michigan with middle 80s possible in a part of Missouri and Illinois briefly Wednesday afternoon

Warm temperatures and limited rainfall in the eastern U.S. Midwest through Wednesday will allow
some fieldwork to advance. Conditions will not be ideal for corn planting and some farmers may opt to
work in the mud, but progress should be made. Highs will reach into the 80s Fahrenheit Tuesday and
Wednesday

Cooling and rainfall will impact the central and eastern U.S. Midwest in the second half of this week

Rainfall will be greatest this week in Iowa and Wisconsin where totals for the week will range from
1.00 to 3.00 inches. Rainfall in other areas will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches and locally more, but it
is not the quantity of rainfall that is as important as the persistence of rain. Many days will have
rainfall and that will assure little to no fieldwork in portions of Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois.
Fieldwork elsewhere will be disrupted, but it will not be nearly as wet

Ohio and eastern Kentucky may experience the best weather for the longest period over the
coming week. A part of eastern Michigan may also experience favorable conditions for a while.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and
affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This
material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or
inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.

Rain will impact the U.S. Delta Thursday and Friday of this week, but the remainder of the week
should be relatively dry with cooling temperatures over time. Fieldwork and crop development will be
least impacted in the Delta from this week’s storm system

Not much rain will fall in the southern U.S. Plains this week outside of Wednesday and Thursday.
Some showers will occur again a week later – possibly. No drought busting rainfall is expected in the
southwest, however.

A relatively favorable mix of weather will impact the U.S. southeastern states over the next two
weeks. Rain will fall in some areas more often than others, but the moisture should support good crop
development

Canada’s Prairies are also enduring some significant flooding, especially from southern Manitoba
into south-central Saskatchewan where 2 to 5 feet of snow melted quickly during the weekend. Inland
oceans of water developed overnight – so it seems.
Conference Schedule
1. GULKE GROUP SUMMER CONFERENCE: We’re all set to go back to beautiful Beaver Creek for
our annual Summer Outlook Conference on July 10-12, 2013 at the Park Hyatt in Beaver Creek. If you’ve
never been to a Gulke Group conference—Beaver Creek is a good place to begin! If you’ve been to
conferences before— you already understand how critical it is to get a better understanding of how
fundamentals and technical's that drive the markets.
Use the web sign up tool to register and learn more information about the conference. The registration
fee is $550 per person, $650 for guests. If you have additional questions, feel free to contact Jamie at
707-365-0601. Attendance is limited at BC due to the size of the facility, so please confirm your spot as
soon as possible! Payment is expected in advance to confirm your spot. Call The Park Hyatt toll free at 1800-778-7477 or online at https://resweb.passkey.com/go/gulkegroup2013 to reserve your room and
be sure to mention you are with the Gulke Group get the group rate.
Technical Analysis
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and
affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This
material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or
inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.
News
The annual Wheat Quality Council tour this week (Tues-Wed-Thurs) is expected to find 2013 Kansas wheat
yields at 35.4 bushels per acre, below the state’s ten-year average of 39.4 bpa, with production estimated at 288
million bushels, which would be the third lowest of the past decade.
Argentina’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s soybean harvest at 55% complete as of Friday, down from 57%
at this point last year; corn harvest progress was pegged at 48% done, up from 47% of the same date last
season.
Brazilian analysts Safras e Mercado estimated the country’s corn crop at a whopping 78.42 million tonnes on
Friday, up from 72.7 mmt last year, and well above the USDA’s increased 74.0 mmt April figure.
Canadian Oilseed Processors Association weekly report shows 28,597 mt of Soybean crushed in week ending
Apr 24 down -5.0% from the previous week. The season to date crush is 1.18 mmt vs the 1.03 mmt in the year
ago period. The weekly report shows 145,596 mt of Canola crushed in week ending Apr 24 up +21% from the
previous week. The season to date crush is 5.17 mmt vs the 5.035 mmt in the year ago period.
Int'l Grains Council suggests that China's rice imports will bump up from 2012 levels by +16% to 2.2 mmt. The
group noted China recently bought 750,000 mt of Vietnamese rice to help meet its rising consumption needs.
Market
Weather: I looked at my I-phone and WGN changed from Friday to more rain and cooler in Midwest, but the
Weather Channel did not at least not yet. For now we’ll go with the following: Widespread rains for the
cornbelt later this week, starting Tuesday night in the west. Heavy rains possible for eastern IA and parts of
surrounding states. Late in the 10 day, possible rain in the central plains as the next front starts to build. Temps
will tend to be normal to below. NWS (National Weather Service) goes for cooler than normal with wetter conditions
in the eastern half of the cornbelt and drier in the western half. Another cold front drops down this week from
Canada on south into KS even with temps 25-30 degrees below normal --- From 84 in Chicago mid-week, to 55
on Friday--The volatile changing weather forecasts did it again as it looks wetter in the central cornbelt that what was
expected last Friday and prices reacted accordingly immediately at the open Sunday night and stayed there.
Planting progress released this PM will likely show little progress in IL and IA or in the eastern corn belt (ECB)
however planting was beginning this weekend in SE IA, NE and N ILL--- lighter ground---some clients in eastern
NE report 25-30% done. Fall strip-till worked great in loamy soils but anything with clay in it was wet of course.
A client drove from E SD to WI and reported he saw lots of fieldwork being done in MN even though they still
have some snow in the ditches, but no planters running--thinks it is still a little too wet. He did see planters
running in WI as well as field work being done. Expected today’s progress report to be well behind last year and
normal, the surprise would be if it is not well behind.
There are a few open days ahead of the rain and the 6-10 day forecast calls for warm and dry conditions across
the western half of the cornbelt. So, planting progress while remaining slow, there will be some progress and a
lot will depend on how long the cold/wet system lasts and how quickly it heads to the ECB where planting
should begin today.
Field Reports suggest pastures greening up and wheat looks good in the Southern Plains offering grass and
pasture improvements….however little planted out west there as well. It was wet this weekend from Chicago
southwest along I-55 to St Louis with wetter conditions further south of Bloomington---so little done there as
well.
Probably a common thread we have heard from last fall to currently is the amount of cropland expansion seen
in the WCB and for that matter N Plains (SD/ND) where pasture and hay was plowed up in favor of planting corn
and it continued through fall. Crop Insurance and high priced corn and the belief that high corn prices will
continue has tipped the odds that cropland will return much more than livestock, something the livestock
country does not need to see happening.
Medium Term: The Gulke Group 2013 planted acres survey showed intentions significantly higher than USDA’s
survey. We might find that intentions were for more corn by 1.5 mil-ac but we lose 1-3 mil-ac due to wet spring
and still come in with 96 mil-ac planted. Odds are prevent plant will increase if current trend continues.
Short Term obviously shows the skittishness that the market will have with each 6-10 day forecast and for now
it looks wet and cool again looking ahead 3-5 day with weather channel suggesting possible heavy rain right over
the heart of the corn belt, but next few days should see some progress. It is time and if it is fit planters will roll.
Technically look carefully at the weekly SX13 and daily CZ13 charts going back to 2010---these are not
continuous but are futures specific focusing just on new November soybean crop prices that are normally
traded 3 yrs in advance at least.
SOYBEANS (Nov): A significant three year soybean trendline is being tested---should soybeans take out the
current low of April it would break the longer term price appreciation focus the market has given soybean prices
for US and more importantly S America suggesting that bringing in new production, management practices and
considering the global situation in general, the market did its job of increasing global supplies ---and weather in
the US could suggest 1-2 mil-ac or more beans at the expense of corn, or more depending on weather next 2
weeks.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and
affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material
and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to
invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.
CORN (Dec): Touched $5.17 last week which was the close last June 2012 just before the massive bull market
begain that was induced by drought (weather)--- should that 5.17 be violated it would suggest sufficient
planting was accomplished to increase chances of supplies exceeding demand by more than a bil-bu.
Currently CZ13 in well established downtrend that needs to be broken --- we’ll let price action that changes the
technical outlook sufficiently to determine if weather has changed planting sufficiently to warrant lifting more
than token amounts of hedges.
BOTTOM LINE: Market psychology suggests nervousness and short covering especially in the bull-spread
environment---spreaders may merely lift the short Dec side and the market may make it painfull for them. For
producers it means higher prices as a result---- old crop will remain relatively strong unless the May crop report
throws demand a curve. Odds increase that USDA will lower projections of 2013 yield in corn by 1 to 1 ½ bu.
The wheat council begins its KS tour of HRW with expectations lower expectations. Traditional funds have the
smallest corn net long since 2011—we will show Large Spec charts tomorrow. An good link to discussion on
planting dates from Purdue http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/PltDateCornYld.html.
Markets & Recommendations
2013 Feb crop revenue ave.
CORN $5.65; SOYBEANS $12.87; SRW $8.57; HRW $8.78; HRSW $8.44;
Durum $9.64 Call Jamie 707-365-0601 if you have any questions on crop insurance or our marketing strategies.
Yesterday’s Trades: Cotton – Bot 40% CTN at 83.60($700 profit/contract).
ADVICE: Extensive weather forecast in MC --- Corn market responding to abrupt change in short term weather
versus Friday’s analysis—typical of this time of the year but changes seem extreme. We’ll need a change back to
a 5-7 day window for planting and that looks limited as the 10 day sees another system. Planting is happening
but weather says no big surge in near term---short covering by bull spreaders could move new crop significantly
CZ should test 5.50 on short covering. Key resistance could be 5.80. --- soybean trade sees more acres coming if
weather persists. Bull spreading in corn could surface on ideas of late harvest than usual of corn. Traditional
funds have the smallest corn net long since 2011.
Our 40% position hedged in corn futures for 2013, 2014 is not excessive—but will create margin to hold
positions. Lift a 10% position on a pullback to 5.38 –if not filled by 11:30 am—cancel the order—this is merely
a margin management move for now—CZ up against downtrend (see chart above)—we have little cash sales
so if we lift hedges, we may very well replace them with cash forward sales should planting window re-open .
Maintain soybean hedges for now---although specs may take profits on anything they have a profit in to offset
the short CZ13 squeeze. Wheat specs exit long May wheat (first notice day tomorrow) but wait for late day as
corn should drag wheat up as well, so by the close today exit long May wheat.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
CORN: 2012: Hedged 100% (100% cash). 2013: Hedged 50% (10%, cash, 40% futures) 2014: Hedged 40%
(40% futures). END USERS: No coverage.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and
affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material
and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to
invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.
SOYBEANS: 2012: Hedged 100% (100% cash). 2013: Hedged 70% (25% cash, 45% futures). 2014: Hedged
50% (50% futures). End Users: For 2013: No hedges.
WHEAT: 2012: Hedged 85% (85% cash, short 30% July 720 calls). 2013: Hedged 10% (10% cash, short 50%
July 720 calls).
SPRING WHEAT: 2012: No hedges, BUT we assume clients are following the wheat advice in Chicago wheat.
CANOLA: 2012: Hedged 100% (100% cash). 2013: Hedged 60% (10% cash, 50% futures)
SPEC: Long 2 May wheat AND short 4 July 720 calls
ENERGIES: no hedges.
LIVESTOCK:
Lean Hogs: 2013: For Q2, hedged 40%. For Q2, sold 20% LHM 92 calls.
Live Cattle: 2013: For Q2, short 20% LCM 124 calls. For Q3, short 20% in futures.
Feeder Cattle: 2013: Producers – no hedges. End Users – For Q3, long 40% FCQ and short 20% FCQ 150
calls. For Q4, long 40% FCQ and short 20% FCQ 150 calls. Lean Hogs: 2013: For Q2, hedged 40%. For Q2,
sold 20% LHM 92 calls.
Cotton: We lifted our profitable cotton hedges on Friday, and just in time it seems. With the
USD backing off it’s recent highs, cotton is surging again. We’ll use a move below 82.80 to reestablish hedges.
Rice: Collapsed again last week, getting down close to 14.80. Lift hedges this morning and
we’ll wait for a move below 14.80 support to re-establish hedges.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors,
employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts
referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any
way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors,
employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts
referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any
way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.