ASB FVOB BNPP Phase II Project Deliverables Completion Report
Contract No. 7114805, Phase II, Modification B
Status Phase II
Deliverables
(ref: project TOR dated 9 Sept 2002)
Comments
1.
Implementation protocols for
Activities 1 & 2.
Completed Also available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_general.htm
These were updated several times in the course of the project. Final versions reflect the state of development of the project through
October 2003.
2.a.
Activity 1
Technical Report , detailing data sources, methods and models applied, substantive outputs, and policy or methodologically relevant conclusions.
Completed Title: Searching for Synergy in Tropical Forest Ecosystem Services:
Historic and Projected Land Cover Scenarios for Exploring
Biodiversity and Watershed Function Linkages (91 pages)
Main report, figures, and appendices available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/ifpri/techreport/Act1_technical_report.pdf
2.b. Activity 2
Technical Report , detailing data sources, methods and models applied, substantive outputs, and policy or methodologically relevant conclusions.
Completed
Title: Landscape and (Sub)Catchment Scale Modeling of Effects of
Forest Conversion on Watershed Functions and Biodiversity in
Southeast Asia (253 pages)
Main report available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/techreport/FVOBAct2_all_2.pdf
Attachments to main report available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_act2.attach_techreport.htm
3. Spatial Datasets and analyses , with appropriate metadata, in archival form available from a public website covering (a) the humid pantropics and impact areas, including an integrated global gridded dataset incorporating key variables for Activity 1 and (b) comparable data where appropriate for Activity 2.
Completed (a) Available online for Activity 1 at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_datasets.htm#a1
(b) Currently available online in Technical Report for Activity 2 at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_datasets.htm#a2

ASB FVOB BNPP Phase II Project Deliverables Completion Report
Contract No. 7114805, Phase II, Modification B
Phase II
Deliverables
Status Comments
4.a.
At least one manuscript, corresponding to
Activity 1 , should make a significant contribution to delineating, at the global scale, areas and populations that are (or are not) at potential risk from the hydrological impacts of land use change in the study focus areas; and the degree to which threatposing land use change also impacts biodiversity.
Completed The manuscript is entitled: The Role of Tropical Forests in
Supporting Biodiversity and Hydrological Integrity: A Synoptic
Overview
Available at: ftp://eos.sr.unh.edu/pub/outgoing/EMD/Pantropics/Manuscript/ and also: www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/ifpri/manuscript/Activity1_manuscript_123003.zip
An additional policy-oriented journal article is planned to report what is learned about the scale of specific hydrological problems and methodological insights about the appropriate scale of analysis and analytical tools. Material for this article would cut across the topics of the collection of manuscripts (sections 4.a. and 4.b) and ASB
Policybriefs. (sections 5.a and 5b). This manuscript will be prepared after the various constituent elements have been reviewed.
4.b. At least one manuscript, corresponding to
Activity 2 , should represent a significant addition to the methodological and substantive understanding of the relation among land use change, biodiversity, and hydrological functions in small and medium basins. The manuscripts should also provide substantive information on hydrological risks and relevant policies in
MMSEA.
Completed
Three manuscripts were completed specifically in fulfillment of this deliverable; seven others are in preparation.
The three manuscripts are entitled:

Far-field effects: the impact of climate variability and landcover/landuse and management change on the dynamics of surface water in the Mekong Basin

Effects of landuse change on the hydrologic regime of the
Mae Chaem River Basin, NW Thailand . (Note that this draft is based exclusively on work by the University of
Washington team, but subsequent publications will be integrated with complementary work by the ICRAF SE Asia team.)

Spatrain: a simulator of space/time patterns in rainfall for predicting scale dependence of variability of rainfall-related processes
In addition to the ‘Spatrain’ paper above, a further six manuscripts are in preparation for submission to refereed journals in the coming year (listed in Attachment 1).
Moreover, an additional fourteen manuscripts were either developed directly as part of this project, as part of related activities of ICRAF SE Asia , or were presented at an international symposium session on ‘Tropical land use change and impacts on watershed functions’ that was co-organized as part of this project. (These are included in the Attachments to the Technical
Report for Activity 2; see 2.b. above for links.)

ASB FVOB BNPP Phase II Project Deliverables Completion Report
Contract No. 7114805, Phase II, Modification B
Phase II Deliverables Status Comments
5.a. ASB Policybrief linked to Activity 1 results . At least one brief on the coincidence of biodiversity-rich rainforest habitats and human populations ‘upstream’ and the exposure of human populations ‘downstream’ to degradation of watershed functions, with particular attention to flood regulation, describing implications for policies that seek to address poverty, biodiversity, and hydrological externalities through a common instrument.
5.b. ASB Policybrief linked to Activity 2 results . At least one brief focusing on land management in medium and small watersheds, discussing the need for and possibilities for policies to shape land use patterns so as to improve biological, hydrological, and agricultural outcomes.
Completed Title: Tropical Forests and Water Supply
Sidebar (abstract): Conventional wisdom has it that tropical forests play an indispensable role in water supply for agriculture, industry, and urban populations. But scientific evidence indicates tropical forest cover has different effects on water supply than many believe. Can policymakers relax? No, but they need to refocus on real problems.
Completed
An additional ASB Policybrief on Deforestation and
Lowland Flooding will be prepared after additional ‘far field flooding’ results from the Univ of New Hampshire
‘Water Balance Model’ and the Univ of Washington
‘Variable Infiltration Capacity Model are interpreted.
A second additional ASB Policybrief on the nexus of tropical biodiversity, hydrological functions and human population density will be prepared after interpretation of the results for flooding and when new disaggreaged data on rural and urban population distributions are available.
Title: Local hazards of tropical deforestation
Sidebar (abstract): There is convincing evidence that deforestation and other land cover changes can have serious local consequences. What are these local hazards?
When and in what situations are the risks highest? What can be done to reduce these hazards?
An additional ASB Policybrief on Reforestation and water supply will be prepared. Sidebar (abstract): Much harm has been done in the cause of watershed management aimed at ‘reforestation’. Efforts to reforest typically are neither effective nor necessary. Much more could be accomplished – without social dislocation – through negotiation with land users and through removing disincentives to land use and landscape management practices that serve community livelihood needs and meeting the hydrological needs of local people and downstream users too.
Moreover, another ASB Policybrief , Empowerment through Measurement , which will be the first in this
ASB series on tropical forests and water , was developed as part of related activities of ASB and ICRAF SE Asia and is planned for publication in January 2004. Sidebar
(abstract): Researchers in Southeast Asia are working together with local people to develop practical tools and methods—based on science and local knowledge—that communities can use to assess the environmental impact of their own land use practices. As a result, communities develop a stronger voice in decision making and are more able to resolve conflicts over the use of natural resources.
Note: As stated in the Project Implementation Protocols, these ASB Policybriefs will be made public following completion of the scientific peer review of the manuscripts listed above in 4.a and 4.b, which underpin the policy recommendations. Our current expectation is that these ASB Policybriefs would be released by 3 rd quarter 2004.

ASB FVOB BNPP Phase II Project Deliverables Completion Report
Contract No. 7114805, Phase II, Modification B
Phase II Deliverables Status Comments
6.a. Policy Seminar at
World Bank
Headquarters ,
Washington, DC
Completed.
Two policy seminars and a policy workshop were conducted for
Bank staff and others.
Details of the substance of the two policy seminars and the three-hour policy workshop are included in
Attachment 2.
Policy Seminar 1. Does deforestation affect river flows across the Mekong Basin?
2 December 2003.
Attended by approximately 45 Bank staff and others.
Policy Seminar 2. Tropical forests and water flows: from small watersheds to the pantropics . 3 December
2003. Attended by approximately 35 Bank staff and others. Available at: www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/BBL_3Dec2003_forweb.ppt
A 3-hour policy workshop Tropical forests, biodiversity, and hydrology: what are the linkages? was conducted on 3 December immediately after the second policy seminar. Approximately 15 Bank staff and others participated in those discussions.
The policy seminars and the workshop produced timely and valuable feedback for finalizing project technical reports, manuscripts and (especially) refining the messages for the ASB Policybriefs . The discussions with Bank staff also produced ideas for opportunities for additional presentations for Bank staff to further the objective of ‘mainstreaming’ results of this project.
6.b. Policy Seminar for
Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(DGIS) , the Hague.
Completed Briefings were held in Nairobi instead of the Hague at the request of DGIS senior staff. (Change in venue explained in email and written correspondence with
Bank Project Manager dated 25 November 2003).
The Activity 2 team also are developing opportunities to share results with appropriate audiences in SE Asia, which will be an essential step in influencing policy dialogues at the regional level.
Note: Results of this project also will contribute directly to the ASB cross-cutting assessment of ‘Forest and Agroecosystems Tradeoffs in the Tropics’ that has been selected as a sub-global component of the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.