Update on the Current Situation of Calf Registrations and Market
Trends in GB
Updated Paper produced for the Beyond Calf Exports Forum
November 2012
GB dairy calf registrations, deaths and live exports
GB
2010
2011
2012/ytd (Sept)
Dairy male calf registrations
370,300
371,400
291,300
Estimated number born (from heifer registrations)
465,200
471,000
351,500
Estimated number killed on farm or not registered
95,000
100,000
60,200
0
11,200
5,700
370,300
360,200
285,600
Estimated number of male dairy calves exported live
Estimated number of male dairy calves retained in GB
Calf registrations and the live export trade
In the year to date (Sept) around 16,000 more male dairy calves were registered in
GB compared with in the corresponding nine months of 2011. It’s important to note
that there has been some shift in trend as the year has progressed. (Q1 +14,500,
Q2 +4,280 and Q3 -3,200) as cereal prices have impacted on viability. There has
been an estimated 60,200 dairy male calves not registered in the year to
September, around 20% fewer than in the corresponding period of last year. The
data indicates that the rate of loss has fluctuated through the year, likely to be in
response to prices.
Estimates of unregistered male dairy calves in GB - 2012
Head
Source:BCMS
Live exports from GB are significantly lower than in the corresponding period of last
year. (<42 days -38%). The industry led ban on imported calves from Great Britain
to the Netherlands continues. British Cattle Movement Service reports that no dairy
calves have been exported for veal production to the Netherlands or Belgium so far
in 2012. However official data shows that live exports of male dairy calves to
Spain in the year to September total over 3,000 head (+78%), overtaking France
as the main destination for live shipments. A total of 1,260 calves have been
exported to France, significantly less than last year (-82%). In addition, cross
border trade with the Republic of Ireland has declined (-55%) with 1,350 male dairy
calves recorded as moving from GB into the Republic in the year to September.
Trends in calf registrations
In NI in the year to August the number of dairy sired calf registrations increased on
the year (+6%). It would appear an increased proportion of dairy cows have been
calved to dairy bulls as there was only a 1% increase in dairy cow numbers
reported in the June census. Of these increased registrations the number of dairy
sired male calf registrations also increased (+6%). Live calf exports (under 6
months of age) from Northern Ireland totalled 13, 600 in the year to August, (+4%);
it is likely that a large percentage of these are dairy males.
Calf prices
The strong store and finished trades are still filtering into the rearing calf market
with most types of calves still tracking above year earlier levels.
At £221 per head the average at GB auction markets for Hereford cross males
during October was almost £40 (21%) up on the average for October 2011.
Continental males recorded a rise of 8% (£20 per head) on year earlier levels,
other breeds were 6% (£7 per head) higher on the year at £128 per head.
While these beef breeds have recorded much stronger values, the market for dairy
bred calves has taken a significant downturn in recent months. This has been
driven by the sustained spike in feed prices since June. With dairy bred males
more likely to be entering more intensive cereal based systems, the economics of
finishing these animals has been changing, which has affected demand for these
animals. In October, the average price of a Friesian/Holstein cross bull calf was
nearly £49 per head. While this is roughly just on a par with year earlier levels it is
a considerable drop since June when the average value was £90 per head.
Friesian/Holstein X bull calf values 2011-2012
£90
Source:AHDB/EBLEX/LAA/IAAS
Debbie Butcher
AHDB/MI
November 2012
Source::BCMS