Project for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:
Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants
(EPA Task Order ID 4TCG68024006)
Progress and Work Plan Report:
Task 1
Prepared by
Adel Hanna, Aijun Xiu, and Kiran Alapaty
Carolina Environmental Program
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
P.O. Box 12889, 3021 Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2889
January 24, 2003
Introduction
In this report we provide a work plan for completing Task 1 of the overall 10-task
project. At this time, the EPA has funded Task 1, so only that task is covered in this
report; when funding for the remaining tasks is received, the report will be expanded to
include them. Work under Task 1 is a collaboration among the University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill, Argonne National Laboratory, and the University of Tennessee.
The overall focus of this task is to prepare meteorological and emissions data for the year
2001 to study intercontinental transport across the Pacific Ocean. Meteorological
simulations and the preparations for emissions modeling are being handled primarily by
the University of North Carolina. Development of emissions inventories over Asia is
being handled by Argonne National Lab and the University of Tennessee. The research
teams from the three institutions will gather for a one-day workshop at the end of January
(agenda in Appendix A). The focus of the workshop is emissions inventories and Sparse
Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) system processing.
Task Approach and Schedule
Task 1: Develop meteorological and emissions data inputs for
modeling of trans-Pacific pollutant transport
The objective of Task 1 is to assess the impacts of intercontinental transport across the
Pacific Ocean by applying, preferably, EPA’s Models-3/CMAQ system. The focus of the
task is preparing the emissions and meteorological inputs to CMAQ. The following five
subtasks will be completed; these are discussed in detail following the list.
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1) Select the modeling domain and configuration, then perform month-long MM5 test
runs to determine the best physics options for simulating intercontinental transport
across the Pacific Ocean
2) Perform MM5 annual simulations for 2001 to provide meteorological inputs for the
CMAQ system for the selected domain
3) Prepare emissions data for year 2001 by integrating emissions estimates from
different sources and regions
4) Develop future emissions projections and scenarios for the Asia/Pacific/North America region
5) Document the meteorology and emissions input preparation for the CMAQ
Task 1.1: Select model domain and configuration
We have generated several possible MM5 domains. After discussions with fellow
investigators and the EPA Project Officers (POs), we agreed on the domain shown in
Figure 1. The specifications for this domain are shown in Table 1. Note that SMOKE and
CMAQ would run on a slightly smaller domain (or consecutive subdomains).
Table 1. Domain specifications
Domain
Central
latitude
(degrees)
Asia-U.S.
61.0
Central
longitude
(degrees)
-175.0
Number of
grid cells in
x direction
Number of
grid cells in
y direction
Grid
spacing
(km)
200
70
108.0
Figure 1. Center latitude 61°N, Center longitude 175°W; grid resolution 108 km
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We will use 23 sigma vertical levels (Table 2). CMAQ and MM5 will use identical
vertical structures.
Table 2. Vertical structure of the MM5 and CMAQ modeling systems
Level
Full sigma*
Ht. AGL (m)
Pressure (mb)
Thickness (m)
0
1.00
0.0
1000
0.0
1
0.995
38.0
995.5
38.0
2
0.988
91.5
989.5
53.5
3
0.980
152.9
982.0
61.4
4
0.970
230.3
973.0
77.3
5
0.956
339.5
960.4
109.2
6
0.938
481.6
944.2
142.1
7
0.916
658.1
924.4
176.4
8
0.893
845.8
903.7
187.8
9
0.868
1053.9
881.2
208.1
10
0.839
1300.7
855.1
246.8
11
0.808
1571.4
827.2
270.7
12
0.777
1849.6
799.3
278.2
13
0.744
2154.5
769.6
304.9
14
0.702
2556.6
731.8
402.1
15
0.648
3099.0
683.2
542.4
16
0.582
3805.8
623.8
706.8
17
0.500
4763.7
550.0
957.9
18
0.400
6082.5
460.0
1318.8
19
0.300
7627.9
370.0
1545.5
20
0.200
9510.5
280.0
1882.6
21
0.120
11465.1
208.0
1954.6
22
0.052
13750.2
146.0
2285.1
23
0.0
16262.4
100.0
2512.1
*23 Full sigma levels = 22 Layers
Task 1.2: Prepare and process meteorological data for intercontinental
modeling
We plan to run MM5 v3.5 and use the analysis-nudging scheme for data assimilation. We
will test the two data sets, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and ECMWF (European Center for
Medium Range Weather Forecast] TOGA global analysis, for initial conditions in the
MM5 system and choose the one most suitable for all the episodes. Based on the
extensive experience we have with many regional and intercontinental applications, we
plan to use the following physics options: simple ice scheme for explicit clouds, Kuo or
Grell scheme for cumulus clouds, Blackadar scheme for the planetary boundary layer
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(PBL), and simple radiation scheme with cloud cover calculation. MCIP will be operated
to generate the Input/Output Applications Programming Interface (I/O API) inputs
formatted for CMAQ simulation based on the results of the MM5 modeling.
Before proceeding with the full-year MM5 simulations, we will perform initial testing
and evaluation of model performance. We will select three 10-day simulation periods in
the winter, spring, and summer seasons, during the months of January, April, and July.
The purpose is to detect physical modeling configurations that may raise issues during
the full-year simulation. For example, the performance of the model over ice may be an
issue during winter simulations. We will be able to learn from the experience gained
during the testing episode selections and will communicate our findings to the EPA POs.
Also during this testing and initial evaluation phase, we will run similar episodes on the
MCNC SGI workstation and the MCNC Linux cluster. Initial testing on the Linux cluster
shows processing speeds at least twice as fast as the SGI’s. We will perform statistical
analyses comparing the outputs of the two modeling platforms in order to ensure
compatibility and accuracy when using the Linux cluster.
Task 1.3: Prepare and process emissions data for intercontinental
modeling
The objective of this task is to prepare emissions inventories for the entire year of 2001
for the trans-Pacific modeling domain. Emissions data will be processed through the
SMOKE emissions processing system to prepare the gridded and temporally allocated
emissions data for CMAQ.
The first project workshop (Appendix A) will provide more insights into the planning of
this task.
Task 1.4: Develop future emissions projections for modeling
The objective of this task is to develop future emissions scenarios for the years 2020
and/or 2030, based on several existing scenarios. The emissions inventories will be
processed through the SMOKE system to prepare the gridded and temporally allocated
emissions data for CMAQ.
The first project workshop (Appendix A) will provide more insights into the planning of
this task.
Task 1.5: Prepare a report documenting meteorological and emissions task
efforts
We will develop a comprehensive report describing all the emissions and meteorological
modeling performed under Task 1. The report will include the modeling protocols for
MM5, MCIP, and SMOKE, along with descriptions of all the model configurations, data
and data sources, methods and processes adapted in MM5, and any problems with
accessing or retrieving the data. It will also contain a detailed description of the platforms
used for the simulations and the computational resources (CPU time and storage) that
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were used. Additionally, the report will include a description of the methodologies used
to develop emissions inventories outside the United States, uncertainties, and potential
areas of improvement that are needed.
Data and Storage
We are estimating a need for about 24 GB[refigure this number after you add the
MCIP estimates in the table below; also refigure the two totals shown in the table.]
for a one-month MM5 simulation, if we decide to keep all the data. Table 3 shows the
storage requirements per month of simulation as well as the total required for an annual
simulation.
Table 3: Estimated storage resources
Grid
Estimated storage
structure/domain
per month
Simulation
Total annual
storage
Obs. TOGA/ECMWF
See Figure 1
1.4 GB
16.8 GB
Preprocessors MM5
200x70x23
10.8 GB
129.6 GB
Inputs MM5
200x70x23
1.2 GB
14.4 GB
Outputs MM5
200x70x23
9 GB
108.0 GB
MCIP outputs
200x70x23
4. GB
48 GB]
—
26.4 GB
316.8 GB
Total
Options for storage hardware:


Fire Wire disks; cost: $400 per 250 GB
Iomega USB 2.0 external 7200RPM hard drive; cost: $256 per 120 GB
Schedule
Table 4: Schedule of operations (Task 1 only)
January
February
March
April
Linux testing
Seasonal evaluation
2001 meteorology
Emissions
Future emissions
Task 1 report
5
May
June
Appendix A
A group workshop to discuss the progress and details of the project’s emissions modeling
requirements is planned at the end of January. The workshop will include the project
research team involved in Task 1 and the EPA POs. A draft agenda for the workshop is
shown below.
Agenda for the First One-Day Project Workshop (draft as of December 31)
Presenter/discussio
Topic
Time
n coordinator
Quick update on the project progress and status
Adel Hanna
Dennis Doll
Carey Jang
10:00 - 10:15
MM5/MCIP update
Aijun Xiu
10:15 - 10:40
China case study
Joshua Fu
10:40 - 11:00
Asian inventory data
 Description of available datasets [give
examples here, as you did below?]by
emissions component (biogenics, mobile, etc.)
 Speciation and temporal and spatial allocation
issues
 Compatibility with SMOKE modeling system?
 Other issues
David Streets
11:00 - 12:15
LUNCH
12:15 - 1:30
North American, European, Russian (and other
regions?) inventory data
 Description of available datasets (US, MX,
CN) by emissions component (biogenics,
mobile, etc.)
 Speciation and temporal and spatial allocation
issues
 Compatibility with SMOKE modeling system?
 Other issues
Jeff Vukovich
David Streets
1:30 - 2:45
Future-year projection issues
 Global scenarios
 Asia
 North America
David
Jeff
2:45 - 3:30
Where do we go from here?
All participants
3:30 - 4:30
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