Figure 1: Targeting Conservation to Areas of High Biodiversity and Hydrological Service
(changes in level of service brought about by land cover change)
+ ve
Change in biodiversity service
- ve
HIGH
LOW
o
LOW
Target
Conservation
Areas
Change in
hydrological
service
HIGH
- ve
Figure 2: Land Cover Change Scenarios for the Pan-Tropic Assessment
1. What have
we lost?
Pre-Industrial
Land Cover
(WWF 2001 Biomes and
Ecoregions)
Synthetic
Contemporary
(WWF + Contemp. Ag)
Contemporary
Land Cover
(1993 GLCCD/IGBP,
2002 IFPRI [Cropland +],
2002 Kassel [Irrigated] ,
2002 Ramankutty [Pasture])
2. What might
we lose?
3. Where
can we winwin?
4. What’s the
near-term
BAU?
Vaporization of
“Threatened”
Forest Tracts
(WWF 2001-2003)
Protection of Areas
of “Outstanding”
Biodiversity
2030: Projected Expansion of
Agricultural Frontier
2015: Projected
Expansion
of 2001)
(FAO
2003, IFPRI
Agricultural Frontier
(FAO 2003, IFPRI 2001)
1600s?
BAU - “Business as usual”
1990s
2015/30
Unspecified
Future