Administrative Author: Jim Malusa Co-Author(s): Abigail Rosenberg Owner: Navy Secretariat Reviewers (USMC) Project Title: Field Study and Mathematic Modeling of the Cause and Impact of the Invasion of Sahara Mustard on the Barry M. Goldwater Military Range and Yuma Proving Ground Service/Sponsor: U.S. Marine Corps Division: U.S. Marine Corps Installation: Marine Corps Air Station Yuma Secondary Installation: Luke Air Force Base and Yuma Proving Ground State: AZ Continuation Proj.: No Expected Complete Date: 11/25/2012 Resource Type: Natural Resources Field Location: Barry M. Goldwater Range and Yuma Proving Ground Primary Theme: Invasive species Secondary Theme: Project Category: Research Other Funds: Yes. Fund Explanation: Marine Corps Air Station contributed … toward the primary establishment of field research plots on BMGR-West Areas of Emphasis Invasive species control Purposes To understand the essential environmental factors that influence the invasion of Sahara Mustard. To examine the impact of Sahara Mustard on native plants and species at risk fauna (i.e., Yuman and Mojave Fringe-toed Lizards). Federal Regulations Military Lands Withdrawal Act (MLWA) Sikes Act, 16 U.S.C. 670 (SIKE) Budget Items Type Item Contract Other Labor Item Cost ($) 51,679 Contract In-kind 15,000 Contract Materials/Supplies $7,000 Contract Other $6,000 Contract Salary $19,494 Contract Salary $13,440 Contract Salary $3,398 Contract Other $9,727 Contract Contract Travel Travel $9,790 $9,180 Contract Other $37,103 Total $ 166,811 Expected Products Product Type Publication Experimental Data Technical Report Description State Agency staff to collect and analyze fringe-toed lizard data ATV use (2 ATV's x $125/day x 60 days) Plot set up (flashing, markers, tags, nets, etc.) ($20 x 100 blocks). Equipment (Soil moisture/tempreature probe, GPS unit, etc) ($1000). Controlled Experiment (Renting space, pots, soil, fertilizers) ($4000) Soil nitrogen concentration analysis: $20 per sample x 300 soil samples per season Graduate research associate ($1949.44/mo x 10 mo) Undergraduate research assistants ($8/hr x 840 hrs x 2 assistants) Principal Investigator (6796/mo x 0.5 mo) Employee Related Expense paid to the University of Arizona. 42.6% x graduate associate salary + 28.4% x faculty salary + 3.4% x undergraduate salary 2 vehicle x 0.445/mile x 11,000 miles Per diem – P. Investigator (34/day x 10 days), researcher (34/day x 130 days), field assistant (34/day x 130 days) Indirect Cost paid to the University of Arizona. 51.5% x (total budget – 30.7% of graduate associate salary) Description At least one manuscript on the cause and impact of Sahara Mustard invasion submitted to a scientific journal. Data on the response of Sahara Mustard and other native annual plants to different environmental conditions in the field and greenhouse A report that documents the environmental factors that influence the invasion of Sahara Mustard, the Due Date 11/25/2012 11/25/2012 11/25/2012 Fact Sheet impact of mustard on native annual plants, highlights high-risk and low-risk areas and species that will be affected by Sahara Mustard, and provides recommendation of effectively controlling this invasive on the military range Depicting a brief overview/summary of 11/25/2012 project undertaking and findings Project Details Project Synopsis: We will examine the cause and impact of the invasion of Sahara Mustard on southwestern military installations and thus provide foundational knowledge to the management of this invasive species that may reduce the suitability of land for sensitive wildlife species at risk and military training throughout the southwestern arid region. Abstract: Sahara Mustard (Brassica tournefortii, hereafter BRTO) is a Mediterranean winter annual plant that has invaded both Mojave and Sonoran Desert. Military ranges in these deserts, such as Barry M. Goldwater Range (BMGR), Yuma Proving Grounds (YGP), Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms, and Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range have all been affected by BRTO. If left unmanaged, BRTO has the potential to fundamentally alter ecosystem structure through outcompeting native plants and enhancing wildfires. Such ecosystem degradation will further threaten the population of many federally and state endangered/threatened species inhabiting these military ranges (e.g. Sonoran Pronghorn Antelope, Desert Bighorn Sheep, Le Conte’s Thrasher, Desert Tortoise, etc.) and sensitive species at risk (Mojave and Yuman Fringe-toed lizards). Moreover, the potential increase in fire frequency will make the ranges less suitable for military training. Both the Military Lands Withdrawal Act (MLWA) and the Sikes Act require the development and implementation of an Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) that facilitates programs that provide for the conservation and rehabilitation of natural resources and the sustainable multi-purpose use of the resources. Sikes Act states each INRMP should ensure no “net loss in the capabilities of military lands to support the military mission” as a result of natural resources management provided in the plan. Without proper knowledge of the cause and impact of BRTO invasion, effective management of BRTO cannot be incorporated into an INRMP to ensure the abidance of the law. Our proposed study of BRTO on BMGR (co-managed by U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, respectively) and YPG, (managed by the Army) combines field measurements, controlled experiments and mathematical modeling to address two fundamental questions in managing BRTO: 1) What are the essential environmental factors that affect the success of BRTO invasion? ,2) What is the long-term impact of BRTO invasion on the native winter annual plants, and 3) What is the impact of BRTO invasion on two sensitive species at risk (i.e., the Mojave and Yuman Fringe-toed lizards). More specifically, we want to examine how soil temperature, soil moisture, soil nitrogen concentration, seed predators and the spatial heterogeneity of the environment jointly affect the invasion of BRTO as well as the long-term coexistence between BRTO and native annual plants and sensitive wildlife species . This study builds the fundamental knowledge for effectively controlling the BRTO invasion, which may hinder military activities or degrade military training ranges. It also builds the foundation for the development of ecosystem-wide land management plans in ranges affected by BRTO. Moreover, the product can be used in managing BRTO in the entire southwestern arid lands and thus has regional-wide applicability. Background: Since its first introduction to Coachella Valley, California in the 1920s, BRTO has managed to invade vast areas in southwestern North America (Fig. 1). BRTO is widely spread on BMGR and YGP and high density patches have been found on both ranges. Despite the consensus that roads facilitate the dispersal of BRTO and anthropogenic disturbance facilitates its establishment, it is unclear what natural environmental factors favor or deter its invasion. BRTO was traditionally thought to prefer sand or sandy loam soil substrates. However, in recent years high density stands of BRTO have been found on rocky hillsides (e.g. on Mohawk Mountains on BMGR), a habitat that used to be considered as impasse for BRTO invasion. Knowing both favorable and formidable physical and biological environments for BRTO invasion is crucial for land managers to determine areas vulnerable to its invasion as well as to find appropriate means to control the species. Moreover, recent studies have underscored the negative impact of BRTO on the density and growth of native annual plants. Nevertheless, it has not been predicted whether BRTO and native annual plants can coexist in the long-term basis. Conventional studies of species invasion usually focus on the effect of fixed environmental conditions and neglect the significant influence of environmental variation on biological invasion. Situated in Sonoran Desert, both BMGR and YPG are characterized by high degree of environmental variation in space and time. Our study will directly address the issue of environmental variation and set an example of understanding species invasion under variable environments. Approach: The field study sites will be located in the Mohawk Valley and southeastern tip of San Cristobal Valley on BMGR, and the Laguna Region on YPG. These areas provide excellent density gradients of BRTO that allows us to explore the correlation between environmental factors and the degree of success of BRTO invasion. We will test the following hypothesis: H1) BRTO invasion is due to its average-fitness advantage and strong spatial heterogeneity. Experimental blocks will be established on site in a manner to capture spatial heterogeneity. Within each block, multiple 1x1 m plots will be constructed for estimating the fitness difference between BRTO and native annual plants as well as coexistence mechanisms rising from spatial heterogeneity. These variables are determined by measuring four life history variables (i.e. seed germination rate, survival rate of ungerminated seeds, vigor of the germinated plants, and per capita seed yield of the germinated plant) and comparing them between different blocks. H2) The average-fitness advantage of BRTO is positively correlated with one or more of the following factors: soil temperature at germination, soil moisture at growth, soil nitrogen concentration at growth and the presence of seed predators. Within each field plot, soil temperature will be measured during the germination season and soil moisture and nitrogen concentration, during the growing season. Seed predator exclosures will be constructed in each block. Moreover, a controlled field experiment will be conducted, in which we will treat co-planted BRTO and native annual plants with three levels of soil temperature, moisture and nitrogen and estimate the fitness of each species at each level. Statistical test will then be applied to examine whether any of the four environmental factors has significant effect on the fitness advantage of BRTO. H3) Some species of the native winter annual plants on the BGMR will not be able to persist in areas invaded by BRTO. We will input our findings of the response of each plant species to environmental conditions into a mathematical model of species coexistence. The model simulates the population-level response of the studied annual plant communities to large-scale spatial variation and predicts which species are able to coexist with BRTO given the environments on BMGR and YPG. Military Benefits: Our findings will provide fundamental knowledge of controlling BRTO not only on BGMR and YPG but also on many other military installations in the Mojave and Sonoran Desert (e.g. Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms, and Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range). Given our findings, we will be able to highlight high-risk and low-risk areas of BRTO invasion as well as native winter annual plant species that are most vulnerable to BRTO invasion. This project will provide valuable information on evaluating the impact of BRTO invasion of two lizard species at risk which can be used in preventing federal listing under the ESA. The knowledge can then be incorporated into the INRMP so that the military can effectively control BRTO invasion and protect native plant and animal species impacted by BRTO as well as other threatened/endangered species that are associated with those native plants. An effective plan of controlling BRTO will prevent ecosystem degradation (e.g. increase in fire frequency, loss of biodiversity) that can result in loss of suitable training ground and any failure of conserving valuable natural resources on the military range. Follow-on Work: We intend to continue the field experiment for three consecutive years to capture the temporal heterogeneity. We will then input the 3-year findings into a mathematical model to examine BRTO invasion under the joint influence of temporal and spatial variation. Work Description: Examine the cause and impact of BRTO invasion under the joint influence of temporal and spatial variation and predict areas and species highly vulnerable to BRTO invasion. FY 2012: 94,000; FY 2013: 94,500. FY 2014: Primary Personnel: Jim Malusa, Ph.D, University of Arizona, Research Biologist Abigail Rosenberg, Ph.D, Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Natural Resource Specialist Yue Li, University of Arizona, Ph.D Student Partners: Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Yuma, Arizona Luke Air Force Base, Arizona Yuma Proving Ground, Yuma, Arizona The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona Technical POC TPOC Name: Dr. Jim Malusa Organization: School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona Address: Biological Sciences East, The University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721 COM Phone: 520-621-6424 Fax: 520-621-8801 Email: jimmalusa@hotmail.com Financial POC FPOC Name: Andrew Hovanec Organization: Comptroller, U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Yuma Address: Bldg #980, Shaw Avenue and Quilter Street COM Phone: (928) 269-2236 Fax: (928) 269-2687 Email: Andrew.hovanec@usmc.mil Timeline Sep,2010 - Oct, 2010 Nov, 2010 – Apr, 2011 May 2011 – Oct, 2011 Nov, 2011 – Apr, 2012 May, 2012 – Nov, 2012 Figures Field experimental site setup First year field study Data analysis and field site improvement. Presenting first year results Second year field study and first year controlled experiment Data analysis, field site improvement, completion of mathematical model. Submitting report and paper for publication. Figure 1. Recorded locations (dark blue circles) of Sahara Mustard in North America. The figure shows the main region where Sahara Mustard has been found. Outliner locations are omitted to optimize the scale of the map. The light pink polygon represents the Barry M. Goldwater Range, and the light green polygon, the Yuma Proving Ground.