ECONOMIC AND REVENUE POLICY DIVISION ECONOMIC NOTE LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS – July 2002 Key Results Employment (‘000, mthly) Employment growth (3 mthly) Unemployment rate Seasonally Adjusted July-2002 Change 955.3 -0.9% Trend July-2002 958.3 Change 0.1% - 0.3% - 0.5% 6.0% 0.3ppts 5.9% -0.1ppts Comment In July, the number of employed persons fell by a solid 8,900 (0.9%). A decrease in full-time employment of 1.9% was only partly offset by a smaller increase in part-time employment (of 1.3%). Partly offsetting the sharp fall in employment, the participation rate declined by 0.5 percentage points, resulting in a more moderate increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0% in July. However, monthly labour force data are volatile, and three-monthly data provide a better indication of conditions in the labour market. In the three months to July, employment increased by 0.3% (2,400 people), which is slower than the pace of employment growth recorded earlier in the year. The unemployment rate over the same period averaged 6.1% (unchanged from the three months to April), while the participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.3%. Employment levels fell across most Australia in July, with New South Wales the only State to record an increase (of only 0.1%). While the fall in Western Australia was the second largest of all States, Tasmania recorded the largest fall (of 1.6%) in employment of all States. Nationally, employment fell by 0.3% in July. In the three months to July 2002, national employment grew by 0.2%. Australia’s unemployment rate was 6.2% in July, down from 6.5% in June. Over the three months to July the national unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.3%. The ANZ Job Ads Series survey suggests more positive conditions in the Western Australian labour market in coming months. In the three months to July, job ads in Western Australia increased by 2.9%, while trend job ads increased by 5.1% over the same period, and have increased every month since June 2001. DETAIL Employment Employment in Western Australia fell by 0.9% in July 2002, but increased by 0.3% in the three months to July. Over the three months to July: full-time employment fell by 0.02 % (167 people) to 667,000 people; and part-time employment increased by 0.9% (2,567 people) to 289,700 people. In annual average terms, employment grew by 1.2% in Western Australia in the year to July 2002, marginally above the national rate of growth of 1.1%. Nationally, employment rose by 0.2% in the three months to July. Full-time employment was unchanged over this period, while part-time employment grew by 0.8%. Employment Number ‘000s NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas Aust. WESTERN AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT 3 months to July Change % Annual change* % 0.25 0.30 0.32 0.25 0.32 0.08 0.23 0.90 1.23 2.10 1.21 1.38 -1.06 1.12 3,100.2 2,341.0 1,743.2 955.3 688.5 196.7 9,289.5 1.5 Monthly Trend Growth Percent Full-Time Part-Time Full-Time Equivalent 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Jul-98 * 12 months to date on same period last year. Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Unemployment The decrease in employment in July caused an increase in the unemployment rate in Western Australia to 6.0% from 5.7% in June. In July, the participation rate in Western Australia fell 0.5 percentage points to 66.1%, however this remains the highest rate of all States and compares with the national rate of 63.3%. In trend terms, the unemployment rate in Western Australia fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% in July 2002, which is substantially below the trend unemployment rate of 7.1% recorded in July 2001. Nationally, the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points in July to 6.2%. The in employment was offset by a larger decline in the participation rate. Unemployment Rate UNEMPLOYMENT RATE July June 2002 % 2002 % July 2001 % Percent 12 11 10 NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas Aust. 6.2 5.3 7.2 6.0 6.5 9.5 6.2 6.3 6.3 7.5 5.7 6.9 8.6 6.5 6.1 6.3 8.2 7.2 7.8 9.5 6.9 9 8 7 6 5 4 Jul-92 Western Australia Jul-94 Jul-96 Australia Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Youth Unemployment Western Australia’s youth unemployment rate rose to 19.4% in July, an increase of half a percentage point compared to the previous month. The monthly youth unemployment data can be extremely volatile and is not seasonally adjusted, so care should be taken when interpreting the monthly data. Western Australia’s youth unemployment rate compares with the national youth unemployment rate of 18.6% in July, and averaged 20.7% over the 12 months to July 2002 compared with the national average of 23.6%. 8 August 2002 For further information on these or related statistics please contact Rasmus Moerch on 9222 9912 or e-mail at rasmus.moerch@dtf.wa.gov.au Note: The labour force statistics are derived from a sample survey and monthly variations should be interpreted with caution. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated.