THE UNIVERSITY OF LETHBRIDGE
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
GEOGRAPHY 3235: Quantitative Models for Geographic Analysis
Fall 2007
Assignment 1 – Mysteries of Growth and Urbanization
Introduction
Population growth is something we take for granted; as most large places – be they cities,
regions, or countries – are simply expected to grow, while smaller places seem locked in
a process of decline. But the more one thinks about it, the more mysterious it is.
Constant growth increments yield declining growth rates. Constant growth rates generate
growth curves which increase exponentially. Knowing this, we can't understand the
potential for future growth until past trends have been thoroughly explored.
Goal
To describe and display population time series data, evaluate rates of growth and graph
changes in the levels of urbanization of population at difference geographic scales.
Data
Canada – most of the population figures used in this assignment are extracted from the
major decennial census which has been conducted every ten years since 1851 by
Statistics Canada and its predecessor, the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. These are also
supplemented by figures from the quinquennial census held every five years.
India – the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India also
conducts a decennial census, and has done so since 1872. Census data is available for the
country as a whole or for any of the twenty-eight states of which it is comprised.
Alberta – also provided are population projections for the years 1977-2006 for the
province of Alberta. These projections were made by the Alberta Treasury, Bureau of
Statistics in the late 1970’s and each of the three projections results from some different
‘assumptions’ about the manner in which the population would grow over time.
Instructions
1. Plot the time series data for total population of both India and Canada using
Microsoft Excel and the method demonstrated in lab. Label the horizontal axis
with dates from 1901 on the far left to 2001 on the far right; and scale the vertical
to increase in increments of 250,000,000. Make sure that the points on the graph
Page 1 of 3
THE UNIVERSITY OF LETHBRIDGE
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
GEOGRAPHY 3235: Quantitative Models for Geographic Analysis
Fall 2007
are connected by straight lines, which together will form a growth curve for each
city. Adjust the symbols so that they are clearly different and label each curve
with the name of its country.
2. Repeat 1 above, changing the following:
a. Create a copy of your graph from the previous questions and change alter
it so that a logarithmic scale for the y-axis is used.
b. Compute log10 of the population data in the appropriate columns (use 5
decimal places). Graph these time series using an arithmetic scale.
c. Graph the population series manually using semi-log graph paper
(provided in lab). Make sure that your graph is legible and includes all
appropriate labels and markings as you would do in Excel.
3. What are the advantages and disadvantages of visualizing and portraying growth
using a logarithmic scale for the y-axis? Can you account for any episodes of
particularly rapid growth? What factors account for these changes? Are the
population growth curves linear or log-linear?
4. For both countries, compute population growth increments and growth rates.
Display your results in tabular format, formatting the numbers to show three
decimal places.
5. Explain how increments and growth rates are different. How do they relate to the
arithmetic and logarithmic series that you have graphed? (Hint: try to use charts
to help you understand the inter-relationships between increasing rates and
increments!)
6. Calculate the proportion (percentage) of urbanization in India and Canada for
each time period from 1901 to 2001. Graph the urbanization proportion time
series using a set of similar area graphs.
7. What is the trend in terms of urbanization growth rates of India and Canada?
How do the two countries compare?
8. Using the skills practiced in the earlier questions, which of the selected population
projections appears to be the best ‘fit’ for Alberta? (We will discuss this issue in
detail in later labs!) Can you speculate on any under or over-prediction by the
models? What difficulties do you encounter when working with these two time
series and how did you resolve the issues?
Your laboratory report should be typed with a cover sheet and submitted to your lab
instructor on or before September 20, 2007. Reports should be submitted only in person
OR through the geography assignment drop box; no email submissions please.
Page 2 of 3
THE UNIVERSITY OF LETHBRIDGE
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
GEOGRAPHY 3235: Quantitative Models for Geographic Analysis
Fall 2007
You may format your lab report with numbers indicating the answers to each of the
questions. For ‘discussion’-type questions, please respond in paragraph form, using
correct spelling, grammar and punctuation. For ‘action’-type questions, please make use
of the Copy/Paste functions in Microsoft office to insert your work into the lab report. If
a table or chart does not easily fit into the page, then attach them as clearly labelled
appendices. Following the format used in your textbook and using the Guide to Term
Papers on the course web page note that graphs and tables should be numbered with
titles, axis labels, and a source to indicate where you obtained the data.
Page 3 of 3