SUMMARY OF PROPOSED ACTIONS FOLLOWING THE WORKSHOP HELD IN FORTALEZA, MARCH 2008. Virtual Center for Northern South America (write, as concise as possible, texts for the following.. one paragraph? ) 1. Participating countries (and institutions) – Colombia,Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guyana(Martinique), Brazil (initially). NMHSs (+ network of national and local institutions). 2 & 3 State of climate and climate fluctuations – forcing mechanisms Include the ocean (Atlantic, Pacific, Caribbean and the North Pole). Significant weather events, severe conditions and extremes (ITCZ, Upper tropospheric troughs, easterly waves, …) The northern portion of South America and Central America are affected by a wide range of meteorological systems of different spatial and time scales. Perhaps, the most conspicuous system of global scale that affect the whole area is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that modules both the weather variability and the climate of the tropical region (approximately between 5ºS and 15ºN). This system is also affected by transient disturbances establishing feedback mechanisms that triggers convective activity and tropical storms also affecting its own spatial and temporal variability. The tropical Atlantic is one of the preferred regions of the world in terms of hurricane development and tracks. Hurricane activity is very sensitive to sea level temperature, which has a slower temporal variability, making possible some guidance in terms of seasonal time scales. On the other hand, tropical systems of synoptic scale including eastern waves, tropical waves, tropical upper tropospheric troughs and cold fronts, among others, interact to local forcing as topography and boundary layer (ocean surface) to control the tropical convection. During the austral summer (December to a March) tropical South America is immerse on the South American Monsoon System, a complex circulation pattern that includes the Bolivian High, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, tropical upper level vortex over Northeastern Brazil, the Chaco Low, etc which are fundamental features of the rainy season. In summary, the broad diversity of meteorological systems of many time and spatial scales that affect tropical South and Central America makes the forecast a very difficult task. The geographical extension of most of the involved systems usually exceeds the size of the individual countries. For this reasons, the forecast procedure should be intended as a challenge for all the participating countries. Global coupled oceanic-atmospheric phenomena as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and other aspects, as the sea surface temperature of the Tropical Atlantic, has strong influence on the climate variability of the entire target region. Because of that, northern South America and Central America has a very important potential in terms of seasonal climate forecast. That effort could be materialized through a climate outlook monthly forum including the most important meteorological and climate institutions of all the participating countries. 4. Monitoring (surface and upper air networks, radars, satellite, Pirata, ….) Proceeding with an adequate monitoring will be a necessary action for integrating the observation network. Those networks should be built on basis of surface and upper air stations, radars stations, satellites stations, moored and drifting buoys. The information from the network will be available to the institutions in real time. The capacity and the need of the institutions are described in the tables in Annex 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3. 5. Forecasting (NWP models, subjective forecasting, routines, methods, … graphical tools …); the ocean component, The meeting identified that there exist a large number of forecasting tools, which could be use for the purpose of establishing an adequate chain for the use of NWP-statistical forecasting. The meeting also identified that the tools are either not always used as should be or there is a lack of knowledge of specific subjects. Therefore, the participants suggested better building capacity mechanism for filling such gaps. Some actions were proposed, for improving the activities on forecasting, mainly regarding to severe weather, such as building capacity, information exchanging and an institutional cooperation network (at national and regional levels). Such actions were defined given levels of complexity, at short, medium and large time schedule, as described in ANNEX II. 6. Climate outlook forum (Univ. West Indies, FUNCEME, INMET, INPE/CPTEC, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, DECEA, IRI, IRD, CIIFEN,...) 7. Exchange of information between the countries involved (network, intranet, ..between the responsible national entity,..) Current communication links and immediate future needs. The meeting reviewed the current status of … 8. How information and forecasts are exchanged for local users (current and future). How to bring the user as an integral part of the forecast – use exercise? Linkages with Civil Defenses and product dissemination (audiences?) Firstly, the meeting decided that USERS will be the DMCPA* authorities, regarding the use of any alert or information that will be available in the Virtual Center. Having this in mind, the meeting also decided that this exchanging of information should be done as clear as possible, as way to minimize risk of doubt/crossing information. Mechanism for distribute information were also discussed, and some example of actions were presented, such as that at Fortaleza, a member of Civil Defense meets regularly at FUNCEME for discussion about critical situations. On the other hand, the State Govern Civil Defence, has a Official Protocol for actions regarding severe weather. Thus the local authorities make decision according to this protocol. The representative of Colombia explained that the country has a service (SNPAD) for emergency response, which is subdivide into specialized sub-commissions (Meteorology, Vulcanology and Earthquakes) with participants from various sectors of Society. * (DMCPA – disaster management and civil protection authorities) The participants pointed out the need for a possibility on having a software that could integrate meteorological and occurrences information altogether, for building sceneries for helping decision makers. Although some of Civil Defense organisms in Brazil, Colombia and Panama (examples that were given during the meeting) have a good relationship with the Meteorological Institutes (e.g. NHMs), there was identified a need for better communication among such centers as well as among participant countries. Thus the Virtual Centre envisages strength on this subject tool. A summary of the needs for the dissemination of early warnings was presented in the meeting and the participants found that software for identification of vulnerability areas and discrimination of severe/extreme events, according to specific needs, were needed. A data archiving system is also important for storing cases and occurrences, which will allow better analysis and further improvement of the whole system. Besides, training on both sides, Meteorology and Civil Defense, is a key point for successful realization for the Virtual Centre. Training should be done at different stages of expertise, from operational aspects to research and developments. Use of already in-place programs and projects will an asset, given the fact that the methodologies are already in use. ANNEX III describes the above suggestions in detail. 9. The challenges of forming a network of collaborating institutions (which ones? ) ‘ international network’ versus ‘ national networks’ – how to link them? Common software for weather forecast briefing, … 10. Next steps ? Actors and split of responsibilities a. Decide on which basic data and information to be exchanged… questionnaire b. Time frame for activities and actions .. c. All participants send additional information to be included in an initial ‘ project proposal’ ANNEX II Metas em curto prazo (3 meses) Criar uma página com diversos modelos com saídas gráficas padronizadas a todos; Produtos de satélite Uma análise sinótica da região; Canal de demandas por necessidade. Levantamentos das necessidades de materiais e equipamentos Problemas de comunicação com usuário Fomentar a troca de produtos Centralização de alertas na homepage Promover capacitação em análises e prognósticos Metas de médio prazo (1 ano) Home-page de alerta (uso restrito, de início) Estabelecer métricas comuns de avaliação do modelo numéricos Resgatar séries históricas e disponibilizar Validação de modelos utilizados de tempo e clima Assimilação de dados Canal comunicação com o Visit View ou skype para discussão virtual; Facilitar a instalação de modelos regionais e treinamentos nos mesmos Promover reuniões anuais Capacitação em nível de pós-graduação: Especialização em análise e previsão de tempo e clima ou mestrado a distância sendo um ano presencial e um ano à distância. (publicação OMM 258). Metas de longo prazo (3 anos) Rodar modelos regionais em domínio comum para utilizar como condições de fronteira de modelos de alta resolução e gerar multi-modelo ensamble. Assimilação de dados de satélite, radar e convencionais. Avaliar objetivamente a desempenho dos modelos numéricos regionais