Student Numbers: From Year 10 Science to Units 1 & 2 to Units 3 & 4 - How do you compare?
(Updated with 2012 data)
Dan O'Keeffe, Australian Institute of Physics (Victorian Branch) Education Committee
Introduction
The study of student participation in science predominately focuses on Year 12 enrolments. However
the progression from Year 10 Science into the VCE Sciences at Year 11 and then the retention into
Units 3 and 4 at Year 12 are transitions that not only should be investigated, but are ones on which
teachers can have a significant impact.
The Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority (VCAA) provides on its website enrolment data
for the VCE subjects for the years 2001 and onwards and VCAA has provided enrolment data back to
1995. The data includes the number of male and female students enrolled in each of the four units,
Units 1 - 4. The Australian Bureau of Statistics on its website provides the number of male and
female students by Year level.
Combining these sets of data it is possible to determine, for Victoria, the percentage of Year 10 male
and female students who do, in the following year, Unit 1 for each of the VCE Sciences, and to see
how that percentage varies with time.
Similarly, it is possible to find out for each VCE Science subject, the percentage of Unit 2 students
who enrol for Unit 3 the following year, and once again to see how this percentage or the retention
rate varies over the years.
Subject Choice
Subject selection for Years 11 and 12 allows for many permutations.
For the VCE science subjects, most students do Units 1 and 2 in Year 11 and follow up, if they choose
to, with Units 3 and 4 in Year 12. So the percentage of Year 11 Physics students, for example, who
continue with Physics in Year 12 can be estimated from the enrolment for Unit 3 expressed as a
percentage of the enrolment for Unit 2 of the previous year.
The interpretation of the analysis is complicated by a number of factors. Some students in some
subjects do Units 3 and 4 of the subject in Year 11 without doing Units 1 and 2. This occurs in
Biology, Psychology and Environmental Science, but is rare in Physics and Chemistry.
Some students, for a variety of reasons, may seek to do Units 3 and 4 Physics or Chemistry in Year 12
without having done Units 1 and 2. Schools usually will insist on substantial preparation over the
summer break before agreeing to this, but it does occur. Whereas the other VCE Science subjects at
Units 3 and 4 are not so dependent on prerequisite knowledge and skills from Units 1 and 2.
There is also some evidence of a few schools offering Units 1 and 2 to Year 10 students, principally
Biology and Psychology.
The information on the transition from Year 10 to Unit 1 and from Unit 2 to Unit 3 for the various
subjects is analysed below.
Work out your school's performance and see how it compares with the state average. If you are doing
better, why do you think that is the case? If your school's performance is below the average, what do
you think you could do to make a difference?
Physics
The progression for physics is quite straightforward. Nearly all physics students would do Units 1 and
2 before Units 3 and 4.
From Year 10 to Unit 1
The percentage of Year 10 boys going on to do Physics at Year 11 has declined slowly over the last
18 years, falling from almost 30% to about 22% by 2011. There was a slight increase to 23% in 2012.
The 7% difference would have meant about 2500 students fewer boys doing Unit 1 in 2012.
The declining number of Year 10 girls choosing Physics is also of concern. In absolute terms the drop
in percentage is comparable to that for the boys, 11.5% to 6.2%, but in relative terms over 40% fewer
Year 10 girls now choose physics compared with 18 years ago. There was a flattening out of the data
in 2012, however Physics in Victoria cannot afford not to address the situation. Successful strategies
and programs need to be identified and the lessons learnt and shared.
Year 10 to Unit 1 Physics Retention Rate
35%
30%
25%
20%
Male
15%
Female
10%
5%
0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 1
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Physics Retention Rate
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Physics Retention Rate
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80.0%
75.0%
Male
Female
Male
70.0%
Female
65.0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
60.0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 2 a, b
From Unit 2 to Unit 3
The retention rate for boys and girls have generally changed little over the last 18 years with the rate
for boys greater than that for girls. There is evidence of a steady increase in the rate for both genders
over the last few years, giving the highest values to date. However given the small, and therefore one
presumes select, population of girls doing physics, there is no obvious reason why their retention rate
is not comparable to that of the boys.
The steady rise in this retention rate for girls has masked the decline in the number coming in from
Year 10. The female participation in Year 12 Physics has been quite constant for several years and it
is only in 2011 and 2012 that there is some evidence of a decline in actual student numbers.
The retention rate for boys is greater than that for boys doing Chemistry (see next page) which is
surprising given that many more boys do Physics and they are likely to be drawn from a broader
ability pool. The retention rate for girls is now greater than that for Chemistry, which should be the
case as three times as many girls do Chemistry.
Chemistry
Nearly all chemistry students would do Units 1 and 2 before Units 3 and 4.
From Year 10 to Unit 1
The percentage of Year 10 students choosing Chemistry has been quite steady over the last 18 years
with slightly more girls than boys, which has been reflected in the Year 12 Chemistry population until
2012 when there were more boys than girls, the first time since 1991. There was a slight drop in the
percentage for girls in the last three years with some evidence of levelling off.
Year 10 to Unit 1 Chemistry Retention Rate
30%
25%
20%
Male
15%
Female
10%
5%
0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 3
From Unit 2 to Unit 3
The retention rates for both boys and girls have been quite steady and comparable to each other.
However there was a slight drop in 2008 followed by a slow recovery.
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Chemistry Retention Rate
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Chemistry Retention Rate
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
75%
Male
Female
Male
70%
Female
65%
60%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 4 a, b
A likely explanation for the drop was the introduction of a revised study design in 2007. It is possible
that some new content or a new approach to a topic caused some uncertainty among teachers and/or
Year 11 students and consequently fewer students choose to continue on with Units 3 and 4. But,
once the change was bedded on, the retention rates began to increase. The views of Chemistry
teachers need to be sought to confirm this scenario.
Biology
There are four possible pathways by which Year 10 students can do Biology:
1. From Year 10 Science to Units 1 & 2 in Year 11 and then stop.
2. From Year 10 Science to Units 1 & 2 in Year 11 then onto Units 3 & 4 in Year 12.
3. From Year 10 Science to Units 3 & 4 in Year 11. Many schools offer Units 3 & 4 Biology in
Year 11 without the need to do Units 1 and 2. The target audience is usually able Year 10
students who are NOT likely to pursue a Biology related career, for example students who are
considering engineering.
4. From Year 10 Science to Unit 3 & 4 when in Year 12 without doing Units 1 & 2 in Year 11.
These are likely to be students, who after having completed Year 11, decide to rethink their
subject choices and possible career paths.
All four pathways complicate the interpretation of retention rate from Unit 2 to Unit 3 as all pathways
are included at least one of the two populations.
However the transition from Year 10 to Unit 1 only involves the first two pathways, so the graph of
this data should be straightforward to interpret.
Year 10 to Unit 1 Biology Retention Rate
35%
30%
25%
20%
Male
15%
Female
10%
5%
0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 5
Year 10 to Unit 1
Both the retention graphs for boys and girls show a slow decrease from 1995 until about the turn of
the century with a slow recovery since then, with the rate for boys not falling as far, and recovering
stronger. About twice as many girls choose Biology as boys with the proportion of girls choosing
Units 1 & 2 Biology returning to about one-third. The dip in the mid 1990's is probably the remnant
from the effect of the introduction of Psychology a few years before.
Unit 2 to Unit 3
The 3rd and 4th of the pathways listed above will inflate the Biology retention rate. Consequently the
values for the retention rate for male and female biology students have been significantly higher than
those for Chemistry and Physics over the years for which data is available. Nevertheless both graphs
show a steady decline in the retention rate since 2002, albeit from very large values.
It is worth mentioning that a revised study design was introduced in 2006 and this may have resulted
in the fewer students choosing the 3rd and 4th pathways. It is possible that there has been a decline in
the number of these students, either because of perceived difficulty of the subject or the attraction of
other Units 3 and 4 subjects that compete in the same market.
The revised study design may have had an impact, but Biology teachers would need to be consulted
on this matter.
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Biology Retention Rate
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Biology Retention Rate
100%
100%
80%
90%
60%
Male
40%
Female
Male
80%
Female
70%
20%
0%
60%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 6 a, b
Psychology
Students choosing Psychology would have similar pathways to that of Biology, with the same
complications for interpreting the data.
Year 10 to Unit 1
The proportion of Year 10 girls choosing Units 1 & 2 Psychology in 1995 was still rising after its
introduction a few years before. The rate reached its peak, of almost 40%, in 2003 and has stayed
around that value since then.
Initially the retention rate for boys was about a third of that for girls, but the rate has steadily increased
since then and is now closer to a half.
Both graphs show a significant rise in 2010 with some levelling since then.
Year 10 to Unit 1 Psychology Retention Rate
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1994
Male
Female
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 7
Unit 2 to Unit 3
As with Biology, the additional pathways complicates the analysis, but the graph for Psychology is
significantly different to that for Biology.
The male and female retention rates for Psychology are both very high and at times exceed 100%.
The rate for males dipped in the early years of the 20th century, but steadily increased after that.
These high values suggest that many schools offer Units 3 and 4 Psychology without the need to do
Units 1 and 2, probably both in Year 11 and in Year 12. Psychology teachers would need to be
consulted on this matter.
A revised study design was introduced in 2010. The data for 2011 and 2012 indicate a substantial
decline in both male and female retention rates. Time will reveal whether the retention in Psychology
recovers in a similar manner to that of Chemistry.
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Psychology Retention Rate
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Psychology Retention Rate
110%
100%
80%
100%
Male
Male
Female
60%
90%
40%
80%
20%
70%
0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
60%
1994
2014
Female
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 8 a, b
Environmental Science
This subject was introduced in 2000 with only a small handful of classes. In 2001 the student numbers
became respectable, but still very small in comparison with other subjects. Between 250 and 600
students were enrolled in each Unit since 2001 with 25 to 35 schools offering the subject.
Both the actual number of students and the retention rates have varied enormously, which is natural
for a subject which not only has very few students, but that number has varied widely.
Year 10 to Unit 1
With over 60,000 students in each year level in Victoria, it can be seen that these enrolments
constitute a very small percentage of the population. However the number of students and schools
had been growing for a few years, but dropped significantly in 2012.
Year 10 to Unit 1 Environmental Science Retention Rate
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
Male
0.6%
Female
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 9
Unit 2 to Unit 3
However the fact that both the retention rates are very high and usually greater than 100% suggest that
the comments about Psychology also apply to Environmental Science. A revised study design was
introduced in 2005 and does not appeared to have affected the retention rates, although the number of
students has doubled since then.
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Environmental Science Retention Rate
Unit 2 to Unit 3 Environmental Science Retention Rate
160%
140%
140%
130%
120%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
Male
Female
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
2000
Figure 10a, b.
Male
Female
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Conclusion
Physics
The growing retention rate from Unit 2 to Unit 3 is a positive sign. It is possibly linked to the
introduction of Detailed Studies, where Year 11 students are seeing physics linked to contexts such as
Medical Physics, Cosmology or Nuclear Reactor Design. However the consistently falling intake
from Year 10 for both boys and girls is of serious concern. A steady decline over so many years
suggests that usual media explanations of the relevance of the curriculum and the quality of the
teachers don't work. It is likely that the near non-existence of tertiary courses explicitly requiring
physics and society's perception of science as only for the most able are likely causes. However
teachers can only have an impact in their own classrooms and schools, so it is worthwhile to identify
teachers and schools with effective strategies for attracting and retaining students and trial new
initiatives later this year.
Chemistry
Chemistry numbers and participation are generally strong and the retention from Unit 2 to Unit 3
shows a turnaround after a minor dip a few years ago. The male participation rate has started to
increase and now equals the female rate.
Biology
The overall participation in Biology is quite strong, although given diverse paths by which the subject
can be done makes it difficult to discern any pattern. The slight decrease on the retention from Unit 2
to Unit 3 back to a conventional level may suggest a shift in the composition of the population of
biology students.
Psychology
The Psychology numbers have been quite strong with a recent significant increase in the number of
male students. However the significant drop in the retention from Unit 2 to Unit 3 in 2011 and 2012,
possibly as a result of the revision of the study design, should be monitored.
Environmental Science
This subject has a small but growing cohort of students and schools. Its fortunes should be monitored.
Acknowledgement: Joe Bui of the Research and Statistics Branch of VCAA for supplying enrolment
data for the years 1995 - 2000.