Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief PROJECT SUMMARY PROJECT IDENTIFIERS 1. Project name: 2. GEF Implementing Agency: The World Bank Improved Household Stoves in Mongolian Urban Centers 4. Country eligibility: Mongolia adopted the 3. Country in which the project is being implemented: Mongolia UNFCCC on 30 September 1993 6. Operational program: OP 5 – Removing Barriers 1. GEF focal area(s): Climate Change to Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency 7. Project linkage to national priorities, action plans, and programs: As a consequence of the very poor air quality in urban areas during the long winters, the improvement of urban household stoves was identified as a high priority action in the 1995 National Environmental Action Plan. The Ministry of Nature and Environment’s Program on Energy Efficiency regards the problem of inefficient urban stoves as a major issue, and in late 1997 presented 100 stoves to urban families in order to monitor their acceptance and performance. The improvement of urban stoves was also identified as a high priority in the Mongolian volume of the Asian Low-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (1998). The reduction of respiratory afflictions caused by air pollution is one of the two top health priorities of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. The Cabinet considered a paper on the subject produced by the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE) and The World Bank in December 1997 and instructed MNE to pursue funding opportunities. 8. GEF national operational focal point and date of country endorsement: Mr. B. Ganbaatar, Director of International Projects, MNE, issued the endorsement letter on May 18, 2000. PROJECT OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES 9. Project rationale and objectives: Goal: To reduce Mongolia’s emission of greenhouse gases. Environmental Indicators Objectives: 1. Reduction of coal and wood consumption and consequent steady reduction of CO2 emissions. 2. To help create a market-based energy service industry working with household dwellers in the improvement of indoor stoves. 3. Transfer experience to Aimag centers. Project Impact Indicators: 1. Widespread adoption by households of improved stoves and best practices: About 40,000 households. 2. Two or more profitable manufacturers of stove improvements and 20-40 small service providers to retrofit traditional stoves with improved kits. 3. Replication of improved stoves in Aimags. 10. Project outcomes: Indicators: 1. Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from household stove: Total reduction of 140,000 tons of CO2 emissions by the end of the 4th year program. 1. The availability to consumers of different cost effective options to reduce coal consumption and improve heating of Gers. 1.1 Householders wanting to improve their stoves by one or more of the means available: at least 3 options available to households. 1.2 Manufacturers respond to demand by producing 2. A credible quality control system and standards equipment for improving stoves. for improved stoves. 1.3. Self-sustaining small enterprises formed by 3. A market driven institutional and financial qualified technicians using existing micro-credit delivery system for improved stoves. facilities to grow. 1 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves 11. Project activities to achieve outcomes (including cost in US$ or local currency of each activity): 1. Social Marketing Activities: Total $197,500 ($190,000 requested from GEF) 2. Quality Assurance Activities:. Total $120,000 ($90,000 requested from GEF) 3. Capacity building for energy service providers Activities: Total $260,000 ($250,000 requested from GEF) 4. New product facility Activities: Total $750,000 ($100,000 requested from GEF) June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief The five selected activities—selected from stakeholders’ feedback—will help create the right environment to provide consumers with cost effective choices and financing options, and suppliers with a reliable market. (a) Number of consumers reached and positively influenced to purchase improved kits and stoves, and having adopted best cooking practices. (b) Attitude surveys on consumers, quality control guidelines issued by Central laboratory. (c) Number of active manufacturers and mobile service providers in the market; number of trained service providers. (d) Number of proposed innovations reviewed. (e) Support program to Manufacturers association. 5. Monitoring and Evaluation Activities: Total $244,863 ($120,000 requested from GEF) (f) Management reports; project evaluation report. 12. Estimated budget (in US$ or local currency): GEF: $750,000 PDF $ 25,000 GoM: $147,363 Private Manufacturers/JICA: $650,000 TOTAL:..... ....... $1,572,363 INFORMATION ON INSTITUTION SUBMITTING PROJECT BRIEF Information on project proposer: Ministry of Nature and Environment. 14. Information on proposed executing agency (if different from above): N/A 15. Date of initial submission of project concept: The project concept was submitted as an application for PDF-A funding on August 4, 1999. INFORMATION TO BE COMPLETED BY IMPLEMENTING AGENCY: 16. Project identification number: P068108 17. Implementing Agency contact persons: A. Salvador Rivera. East Asia and Pacific Energy Unit, The World Bank, Washington D.C., 202-473-1131, email: arivera2@worldbank.org, A. Whitten, Environment and Social Development Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region, 202-4582253, twhitten@worldbank.org. 18. Project linkage to Implementing Agency program(s): This project is specified as a deliverable within the Country Assistance Strategy (June 1998) and as part of the Country Work Program for FY 01. 2 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief Removing Barriers to the Adoption of Improved Household Stoves in Mongolian Urban Centers Project Description PROJECT RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES Ulaanbaatar is the coldest capital in the world. Mongolians use four types of fuel to cook and heat their gers and homes: coal, fuelwood, dung and, in the most affluent households, electricity and/or centralized district heating. While the collection of fuelwood and dung has environmental consequences (degradation and attrition of woody vegetation, and interruption of mineral cycling respectively) the resources are not perceived as limiting in many areas and so there is little incentive to adopt more efficient stoves. In urban settings, however, the coal stove predominates. Mongolia has one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita and GHG emissions per $GDP in the world. During the bitterly cold and long winter, smoke sits on the towns and is the major cause of the respiratory complaints and diseases that account for half of the child deaths and a major part of child and adult morbidity. The primary sources of CO2 emissions and air pollution are: the 70,000 coal-fired urban stoves concentrated in the poor ger (traditional tents) districts in Ulaanbaatar (UB) accounting for about 300,000 of the city’s 700,000 population; and the combined heat and power (CHP) stations. The stoves are estimated as contributing 30-65% of Ulaanbaatar’s air pollution. It is estimated that indoor cooking stoves consume about 350,000 tons of coal each year, with corresponding annual emissions of about half a million tons of CO2. As a consequence, the improvement of household stoves was identified as a high priority action in the 1995 National Environmental Action Plan. Further, the Government has pursued rehabilitation of CHP stations with bilateral and ADB support. The ADB/GEF/UNDP ALGAS report (1998) identified improvements in coal stove efficiency as one of the 14 options for GHGs mitigation in the energy sector. Such stove improvements ranked fourth in CO2 emissions reduction potential and sixth in cost effectiveness. However, their combined ranking placed them near the top of the options and, when assessment of feasibility and local benefits were factored in, only three of the seven top combined-ranked options (loss reduction in electricity and district heating systems, improvements in vehicle fuel consumption efficiency, and improvements in coal stove efficiency) were rated ‘high’ for both. Of these three, the first has been the subject of a major government program supported by the World Bank and ADB, the second is a government priority and will be included as a mechanical and emissions vehicle inspection system in the proposed World Bank-supported Transport Development Project within the Ministry of Infrastructure to be appraised May 2000, and the third is the subject of this proposal. Objectives This proposed project has three main objectives: 3 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief (i) to reduce coal fuel consumption--and corresponding CO2 emissions and levels of air pollution (indoor and outdoor)--in the ger area1 of Ulaanbaatar in a sustained way; (ii) to facilitate the creation of a market-based institutional delivery system that would allow sustainable reduction of coal consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions into the future, through the establishment of reliable manufacturers of efficiency indoor coal stoves and development of small energy service provider companies and other means as required; (iii) to replicate project benefits to other areas in Mongolia, particularly in the rural (aimag) centers. These objectives will be achieved through the execution of five components as shown below: Project Components Improved Stoves Project Social Marketing Quality Assurance Capacity Building New Product Facility Monitoring and Evaluation CURRENT SITUATION Air pollution derived from indoor cooking stoves has been identified as one of the leading causes for respiratory diseases in the urban areas in Mongolia, in particular in Ulaanbaatar, and as a major contributor to air pollution and CO2 emissions. While studies--and sporadic donor support to introduce efficient stoves--have taken place there over the last decade, there has not been a sustainable effort to introduce market based delivery systems that would provide consumers with credible and cost effective options while lowering perceived risks to manufacturers to expand into this market. As a consequence, the number of efficient stoves in use is insignificant. As a response, in 1998, World Bank/ESMAP technical assistance was requested by the Government of Mongolia to assess the pre-feasibility of an Improved Coal Stove project in Ulaanbaatar. A first mission carried out a small energy household survey, number of physical tests on stove performance (emissions, power, turn-down ration, efficiency), and a preliminary evaluation of previous stove programs, including delivery mechanisms and barriers. As a result of the surveys’ outputs, technical improvement proposals were designed and tested under winter conditions in UB. That work showed that while actions directed to improving stove performance during the summer months would have negligible impact on air pollution and fuel consumption, each winter each ger household consumes about 5 ton of coal and 4-7 cubic meter of wood, thus making a major contribution to overall CO2 emissions and air pollution. Further, more detailed tests done over the 1 Ger areas are found primarily around built urban areas and comprise primarily the traditional felt tents. However, ger areas also include wooden houses in which the same types of stoves are used. 4 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief last winter also have shown that one of the locally produced stoves, the G2 stove, is indeed an excellent stove, and that further modifications to it can significantly reduce CO2 and other emissions, as well as further reducing coal consumption without adding substantially to its overall current price of about 60,000 Tg (US$ 60 equivalent). Still, this price may be unaffordable for a large portion of the ger population. In parallel, surveys conducted during project preparation demonstrated that about 80-85 percent of the stoves in UB are homemade and last 5 to 10 years. It is thus unrealistic to expect air pollution reduction through poorer elements of the population just by buying new more efficient stoves. Consequently, a ‘kit’ was designed which could be fitted by the project’s trained technicians (energy service providers) in order to improve existing stoves without removing them from the ger or house. This approach seems to have the strongest potential impact, with highest social and environment returns. Tests during project preparation also showed that traditional stoves equipped with the improvement Kit including a new inclined grate, primary air inlet adjuster, secondary air inlet adjusters, chimney collar, and reduction of the combustion chamber volume with constructionbricks can reduce CO2 emissions by 54 percent or 42 percent with more modest improvements. Still, in spite of the potential for coal savings and reduced air pollution, efficient stoves are not yet being adopted by consumers to any significant extent. Several workshops and surveys have identified four major barriers to their adoption: lack of consumer awareness of the options and benefits brought about by both the improved stoves and less costly improvement kits; high perception of risk by stove manufacturers on the market potential and therefore lack of business plans to address the market, including properly trained technicians to manufacture improved stoves and Kits; perceived lack of certified and reliable quality by consumers on products currently sold; and perceived high initial cost of improved stoves combined with the lack of micro-credit facilities to overcome initial cost barrier. The last of these is changing with the appearance of a small number of microfinance agencies, by far the largest being the Golden Development Fund (XAC). ‘XAC’ Finance Company, Mongolia’s first professional micro-finance institution, was set up in late 1998 within the framework of the implementation of the Microstart-Mongolia Project, funded by UNDP. Its primary founder was the Mongolian Women’s Federation (MWF). It has now disbursed over 5500 loans totaling over $1 million, with an average size of $140. Over 70% of loans are made to women and the repayment rate on loans is nearly 99%. There are currently three branches in Ulaanbaatar (various districts) and four others in sum and aimag centers, and eleven branches are envisaged by 2001. XAC has been part of the consultation process during project preparation, and it has also prepared a training package for small energy service providers to be responsible for making stove improvements in traditional stoves. 5 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief EXPECTED PROJECT OUTCOMES WITH UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND CONTEXT Three main outcomes will be derived from the proposed project: i) The availability to consumers of different cost effective options to reduce coal consumption and improve heating of gers, thus leading to a reduction in coal and fuel-wood consumption and lowered emissions of CO2 and other forms of air pollution; ii) a credible quality control system and standards for improved stoves; and c) by the end of the project, the establishment of a market based institutional and financial delivery system to supply and adopt improved stoves and stove improvements in Mongolia. It has been estimated that, if successfully implemented, the project could cause overall coal consumption in domestic gers and households to be reduced by 30% after four years, and up to 40% subsequently, or the equivalent of 10 percent of families’ annual income, with a payback of 4 months. It is expected that during the first three years, most of the low income consumers, or about 2/3 of the population in the ger area, will have the improvement Kits installed in their traditional stoves. The key assumption is that there is a considerable latent demand for improved stoves and stove improvements which will be met by an adequate supply of goods and services through the activities of the project; and that households will make decisions in favor of stove improvements goals if critical information is made available to them and if necessary services are available. ACTIVITIES AND FINANCIAL INPUTS NEEDED TO ENABLE OUTCOMES Component 1 – Social Marketing: Increase awareness Total $197,500 ($190,000 requested from GEF) 1.1 Produce and disseminate information on benefits of stoves and nature and size of Market 1.1.1 Use social marketing techniques to obtain a clear profile of the market for stoves and stove improvements, of the categories of consumers and their desires, influences and constraints related to stove improvements in order to best target the various audiences 1.1.2 Inform the private sector early on concerning the project objectives and activities in order to mobilize partners for implementation. In particular: a. the present traditional stove producers who have to understand that they have to choose between the technical assistance of the project to improve their stoves and to have them certified or the banishment from all facilities provided by the project (technical assistance, credit, etc.), b. in partnership with donor supported small and medium enterprise (SMEs) programs, support stove manufacturers in development of business plans and structure financing for expansion of manufacturing facilities to meet growing demand for improved stoves and stove improvements. 1.1.3 Inform the household store selling centers in UB so they can prepare to join promotional improved stove sales/offers. The project will provide them with advice on the choice of the improved stoves and kits. 1.1.4 Prepare and deliver campaigns directed to different parts of the general public using TV, radio, newspapers, etc. The types and subjects of the campaigns will differ with the progress of the awareness, the need of the projects, target groups, etc. 1.1.5 Special activities in the sub-districts, using local NGOs, to convince traditional families of the feasibility and financial desirability of improving their stoves, disseminating best practices such as how to save coal and decrease the peak of air pollution in the morning 6 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves 1.1.6 1.1.7 1.1.8 1.1.9 June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief without changing any part of the stove but rather modifying the practice of filling the stove, etc. Identification and mobilization of popular sponsors including Buddhist Centre, Naadam champions, able to popularize and give credibility to the concepts of stove improvement, Production of communication materials such as films, articles, T-shirts, calendars, cards, etc. Organization of games and other activities for schools, and other groups with improved stoves and Kits as awards. Use of the above activities to encourage householders to take other steps to improve the environmental conditions of their surroundings and beyond. 1.2 Credit mechanisms for facilitation of project goals 1.2.1 Inform private producers of financing opportunities to facilitate their investment in new small equipment when they want to develop a new capacity of production, or to improve the efficiency of a production process; 1.2.2 Inform the Energy Supports Services of financing opportunities to facilitate: i) their first equipment such as welding machine, electrical drill or angle grinder, and ii) the first acquisition of improved stoves, Kits, new grates with inclined supports, primary and secondary air inlet adjusters, bricks, etc; 1.2.3 Inform families of consumer credit opportunities for the purchase of an improved stove or a Kit; 1.2.4 Promote credit facilities related to special events such as i) ‘package credit’ in SeptemberOctober, when people buy their coal for the winter season, ii) new year feasts, etc. 1.3 Extension to other cities 1.3.1 Preparatory surveys to i) ascertain the initial situation, ii) determine whether the practices for promoting improved stoves and stoves improvements in UB are appropriate; 1.3.2 Training of the future local manager responsible for the implementation of the project. Component 2 - Quality Assurance: Increase consumer’s trust. Total $120,000 ($90,000 requested from GEF) 2.1 Certification process for stove manufacturers and stove improvements 2.1.1 Training of staff responsible for certification process on main technical characteristics of improved stoves and stove improvements. 2.1.2 Development, adoption and monitoring adoption of logo certifying efficient stoves and stove improvements. 2.1.3 Development of random annual field surveys to monitor performance of certified stoves, quality of manufacturers and small energy service providers. 2.2 Upgrading of existing equipment to test improved stoves and stove improvements 2.2.1 Acquisition of testing laboratory equipment for use by the Central Laboratory (CLEM) and training of its staff on its proper use. 2.2.1 Acquisition of equipment to monitor pollution emissions in the ger areas, particularly CO2 emissions, and training of staff on its use and interpretation and analysis of data. Component 3 - Capacity building: Train technicians Total $260,000 ($250,000 requested from GEF) 3.1 Provision of technical assistance 3.1.1 Assisting new improved stoves producers: to develop business plans and facilitate financing with existing SME programs, and to design and test their new improved stoves, 3.1.2 Assisting the training activities of the project (see below), 3.1.3 Assisting the extension to other cities (preparatory surveys and [if necessary] tests). 7 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief 3.2 Provision of skills for evaluation new stove improvements 3.2.1 Assisting quality control through the provision of technical specialists to stove manufacturers and service providers to improve manufacturing quality, the PIU to monitor and assess market response through statistical analysis and market assessment, and local NGOs in design of social marketing campaigns. 3.3 Skills training 3.3.1 Skills training targeted at medium-sized commercial producers of improved stoves, such as the informal producers from the markets in UB; 3.3.2 Skills training targeted at small-scale producers of stoves, who currently supply the majority of ger area families with traditional stoves, 3.3.3 Skills training targeted at Energy Services technicians able to sell their knowledge directly to the families in the ger areas on a commercial basis (ESCO concept), 3.3.4 Skills training targeted at people living in the ger districts, to improve their traditional stoves by themselves using simple and cheap means, 3.3.5 Skills training targeted at those to be made responsible for the implementation of such programs in other cities. Component 4 - New product facility: Reduce high initial costs Total $750,000 ($100,000 requested from GEF) 4.1 Evaluation and dissemination of new technical and institutional options 4.1.1. As shown successfully under the ESMAP program, support the evaluation, testing and dissemination of improved stoves and institutional delivery systems for its dissemination, including improved cheap summer woodstoves for cooking, use of briquettes (PNUD), and new improved stoves, kits and best practices for saving coal and fuelwood. 4.1.2 Support to stove manufacturers in the preparation of business plans to finance, through local Small and Medium financial facilities, the expansion of workshop facilities to expand production capacity of both improved stoves and stove improvements. Already two manufacturers are in discussions with local SME facilities to finance (US$ 150,000) the expansion of their workshops. 4.1.3 support follow-up surveys to measure acceptability by consumers of new products. 4.2 Assist in lowering high initial transaction cost to consumers 4.2.1 Support to Stove Manufacturing Association in organization of exhibits and development of Open Market Centers at main store selling centers in Ulaanbaatar, 4.2.2. Training and support in launching of Open Market Centers as initial retailing delivery system, including organization of initial centers. 4.2.3 Facilitating the JICA-supported TA (US$ 500,000) to supply steel for stove manufacturers at competitive market prices. Component 5 - Monitoring and evaluation Total $244,863 ($120,000 requested from GEF) 5.1 Project impact M&E 5.1.1 Regular measurements of coal and fuelwood consumption measurements in ger areas 5.1.2 Regular assessment of adequacy of distribution channels for both coal and fuelwood in ger areas, including impact on main supply sources and means to improve efficiency on those distribution systems. 5.1.3 Regular measurements of air pollution in ger areas, within gers, and in UB in general 5.1.4 Regular measurements of consumer penetration 5.1.5 Regular measurements of consumer satisfaction 5.1.6 Regular measurements of improved stove logo recognition 8 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief 5.1.7 5.1.8 Regular measurements of consumer expenditure accounts Regular measurements of use of credit (for stove purchase and stove-related entrepreneurial activities) 5.1.9 Regular measurements of development of new products 5.1.10 Three measurements of local forest cover 5.2 Project execution M&E 5.2.1 Quarterly reporting of activities, disbursements (relative to cost tables and project implementation plan) etc. by the PIU to the UB Municipality and the MNE, 5.2.2 Annual activity report from the PIU to the Steering Committee, 5.2.3 Mid-term review 5.2.4 Impact study By the end of the project the following outputs are expected: By the end of the first full winter By the end of the second full winter By the end of the third full winter By the end of the fourth year Totals Number of commercial improved stoves Number of home-made improved stoves Number of stoves in use in ger districts Combined total of stoves improved in use in UB (number and %) 1,400–2,100 Number of traditional stoves improved with inserts and best practices 7,500–11,000 1,000–1,500 68,000 9,900–14,800 14–21 2,000–2,500 2,300–3,000 15,000–17,500 71,000 29,200–37,800 41-53 4,000–5,000 3,000–4,000 20,000–25,000 75,000 56,200–71,800 75–95 56,200–71,800 75–95 80,000 7,000–9,000 6,700–9,100 42,500–53,500 SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT Sustainability of the project is closely correlated with two main aspects: a) acceptance and satisfaction by consumers on the quality and price of the products offered; and b) the ability of manufacturers and small service providers to supply good quality products at competitive prices. Under the project proposed project design, by the close of the project the majority of people owning stoves in Ulaanbaatar and some other cities will be well aware of the benefits of the improved stoves and will have improved their stove by at least one of the promoted means. Manufacturers, in combination with ongoing SMEs programs would have assessed the strength of the market and therefore the range of investments required. All the activities are expected to be sustainable once established and proven by the project, because they will be driven and modified over time by market forces and increased involvement in personal environmental action. Still, given the dynamic nature of the transition to a market system in Mongolia, it is expected that the mid-term review process will reveal any realignments that may be required to achieve the outlined objectives. Risks and responses The primary risks for the project have been identified as: i) lack of demand for the new improvement kits and stoves and hence for the associated services, ii) householders in ger districts will not make decisions in favor of stove improvements goals, iii) lack of manufacturing 9 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief capacity to supply a steady demand of improved stoves; and iv) lags in implementation, generally caused by inexperience or management difficulties in the Mongolian implementing agencies. Regarding the first two risks, the consultations and the household surveys have indicated that a latent demand does indeed exist. Through the social marketing component of the project this demand will increase through the dissemination of critical information to the target groups through the most appropriate channels which will facilitate decisions in favor of the stoves to be made. Most important, coal savings are about 30-40 % when compared to use of traditional stoves, this is a feature that will be widely disseminated. Regarding manufacturing capacity, two actions have been taken: i) active participation and training of one of the stove manufacturers in project preparation activities, and ii) linkages to other donor funded SME programs to assist all manufacturers in development of business plans and creation of the stove manufacturing association. Under the project, association members will receive technical support to improve quality of products and assist them to structure financing required for expansion of facilities. Further, private stove manufacturers are in the process of preparation of business plans to expand workshop facilities, one of the manufacturers is already in discussions with local private banks to expand its facilities. The main obstacle to create a dynamic market as perceived by the manufacturers is the lack of credible information among consumers on the options and benefits of stove improvements. The GEF project will contribute to facilitate market creation activities through its marketing component and certification process of improved stoves and service providers. Institutional arrangements for project implementation have been kept as simple as possible, by (i) focusing on one primary beneficiary, the Minister of Environment and Natural Resources, and (ii) early development of a PIU in this beneficiary as the focal point for project activities, from project inception, through preparation and implementation, with training and technical assistance support during the ESMAP and GEF-PDF preparation phase. Training of PIU staff in procurement processing, disbursement and project implementation has already begun. Firmly identified procurement packages will begin immediately following project approval, so that a number of key contracts may be executed upon project approval. STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT The Mongolian Women’s Federation2 (MWF) has been involved with most of the aspects of project preparation both under the ESMAP-funded activities and the GEF PDF A funded ones. They have assisted the stove manufacturer in conducting in situ trials of the stoves through their good contacts with khoroo (sub-district) chairmen. They have also used teams of students and unemployed persons to conduct the various household surveys: Households and fuel consumption (451 households): This survey concerned household size and income, employment status, consumption of and price paid for coal and fuelwood, the types of stoves used in summer and winter, expenditure on electricity, The Mongolian Women’s Federation was established in 1924. It is an umbrella organization for (currently) 48 women’s groups which join voluntarily to further the causes of protecting women’s rights and to improve their social status regardless of their ideology, social status, religion, nationality, wealth or position in society. The MWF coordinates efforts by member organizations in order to form unified women’s and public opinion on government policy concerning gender issues. The MWF also implements relevant projects which establish democratic society, improve women’s working and living conditions, provide adequate health care, and to improve women’s access to information. Projects have been implemented with various international organizations such as UNIFEM, UNFPA, TACIS, UNICEF and UNDP. 10 2 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief feelings about the opportunity to improve the stove, and their evaluation of living standards. Traditional stove types (256 households): These households were visited in order to collect information about the types of stoves used. G2 stove satisfaction (19 households): These households represented all those who could be located of the 49 households given G2 stoves by MNE in 1997. Comparative coal and wood consumption tests (40 households): With the help of 24 households with traditional stoves and 16 households with G2 stoves, a range of improvements were made and the subsequent stove efficiency changes measured. Comparative air pollution tests (10 households): Measurement of CO, NOx, SO2, CO2 and dust on traditional and G2 stoves with a range of improvements (performed by the MNE’s Central Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring). In February 2000 a Preliminary Stakeholders’ Workshop was held in MNE followed up by a full stakeholders Workshop in April 2000, attended by three stove manufacturing companies, the inventor of the G2 stove, a number of sub-district chairmen, air pollution monitoring scientists, an independent local consultant on public awareness and environmental education, as well as MNE staff and other government officials. Given the significant symbol of the fire in gers among Buddhist followers, project preparation activities have also involved consultations with the head of the Buddhist temple in Ulaanbaatar and a fire offering ceremony will take place at the beginning of the project. The UB Municipality has been supportive of any effort to assist with the improvement of the coal burning stoves, and it has been agreed that MNE (as project executing agency) will sign a formal Memorandum of Understanding with the Municipality regarding activities and responsibilities of the Municipality’s staff. INCREMENTAL COST ANALYSIS BASELINE SCENARIO The Government of Mongolia has identified the improvement of urban household stoves as a high priority action since 1991, when the State Committee for environmental monitoring and the Ulaanbaatar municipality stated their support to the design, testing and manufacturing of improved household stoves. In 1997, the Ministry of Nature and Environment’s Program on Energy Efficiency presented 100 stoves to urban families in order to monitor their acceptance and performance. The Cabinet considered a paper on the subject produced by the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE) and The World Bank in December 1997 and instructed MNE to pursue funding opportunities. Overall, these efforts have led to raising the awareness level of Government officials, it allowed construction and operation of 100 improved stoves (R&D aspect) but it has not translated into the commercialization and dissemination of improved stoves through market-based delivery systems. In the absence of an alternative, Mongolia’s efforts to introduce improved stoves will probably remain at its current state, or given the transition to market economy in tandem with the lack of credible marketing efforts it may lose focus and the stop-and-go funding currently available may start to decline. Under the baseline case, it would probable take longer to advance the sustained 11 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief introduction of improved stoves, as it has been shown to be the case in the last 10 years, and the funding available--provided mainly by donors--would most likely remain in Government hands. The estimated cost of the baseline scenario is US$ 577,700 over a period of 4 years. The estimated cost by main activities is as follows: Dissemination activities Under the baseline scenario the Government, through the Ministry of Natural resource and Environment (MNE), would continue to encourage donor agencies to provide assistance to donate improved stoves to low-income consumers, particularly the elder under the Social welfare law. The MNE will disseminate the results of the ESMAP financed activities showing the benefits of improved stoves, stove improvements and best practices that could lead to coal savings. It is envisioned that the dissemination will be made through the municipality-sponsored TV programs. Under the baseline scenario, total cost for dissemination activities is estimated at about US$ 7,500. Products Facility-Market Development Under the baseline scenario, donor and government driven efforts will most likely continue focused in the sporadic production of new improved stoves, not improvement kits, to try to boost the market and encourage stove manufacturers to expand their workshops. Currently JICA, Japanese aid agency, and the MNE are under discussions to arrange a grant package to supply steel to stove manufacturers. Under the baseline scenario, total cost for stove production activities is estimated at about US$ 500,000. Capacity building for Energy Service Providers Following on ESMAP assistance during the last year, the MNE has recognized the importance of training technicians which will be responsible for making improvements to traditional stoves at a lower price, while achieving similar saving results as in the case of new stoves. Under the baseline scenario, total costs for capacity building is estimated at about US$ 10,000. The baseline case does not envision quality assurance activities like certification of stove manufacturers and service providers, or the creation of new product facilities to serve as an incubator of proposed stove improvements for heating purposes in gers i.e. wall heating facilities, or stove using briquettes. Monitoring and evaluation activities Under the baseline case, coordination and monitoring activities will continue under the arm of the MNE, with little participation from other entities, and lack of market assessments to measure the impact of the donor driven programs. Total cost under the baseline scenario is estimated at about $ 60,200. All the above actions taken together will most likely lead, in the long-term, to the adoption of improved stoves by some families in the ger district, even if not in significant numbers, bringing with it local benefits such as reduced respiratory afflictions caused by indoor and outdoor air pollution and lower global benefits. GEF ALTERNATIVE The proposed alternative will expand global benefits by scaling-up preparatory work under ESMAP and GEF-PDF funds, while focusing on those activities that would allow the creation of a market oriented supply and financing of improved stoves, kits to improve traditional stoves, and a credible social marketing program. The selected activities are the result of a process of targeted consultation with the main stakeholders, workshops and surveys with consumers. The estimated cost of the GEF alternative to introduce market based delivery systems and market assessments is US$ 1.57 million(including PDF-A funds), of which $ 750,000 is being requested from GEF, and 12 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief the balance will be contributed by the GOM, JICA and private sector manufacturers of improved stoves and stove improvement kits. The different participants to the workshops and satisfaction surveys have identified four main barriers hampering the adoption of improved stoves and/or improvements on traditional stoves: Lack of awareness on availability of stoves/improvement kits and size of savings. GEF will help finance those incremental costs associated to a Marketing and social behavior component to reach and influence buyers, manufacturers and financial institutions concerning the different options, size and nature of the market, and ways to have improvements made to existing stoves, either through the use of a ‘kit’, or through minor modifications. The total cost of the GEF alternative is $197,500. Lack of quality control and strengthening of certification procedures. While alternative stoves and improvements could be made available, the participants agreed on the need to provide consumers with informed and credible information on the quality of stoves and improvement kits, not by manufacturers themselves, but by an independent laboratory. Consequently, the project will have a component to improve quality control issues related to the manufacturing of the stoves and improvements, as well as with certification of qualified technicians and energy service providers. The total cost of the GEF alternative is $ 120,000. Lack of readily available qualified energy service providers and technicians to assist users in implementing and financing improved stoves and/or improved kits. One of the most revealing aspects of project preparation was the need to have a qualified cadre of technicians and energy service providers that can assist users in making improvements to the use of current stoves, install improvement kits, and guide them in the process of acquiring new stoves when required. Hence, the project will include a component to help establish energy service providers at a micro-enterprise level and to facilitate their access to micro-finance providers. The total cost of the GEF alternative is $260,000. Market Development: New products facility While current models will help achieve substantial savings, there is a richness of experience and innovative approaches in Mongolia and elsewhere in the world on new technical and policy options to increase the efficiency levels of indoor stoves and heating systems in the ger type of households. Consequently, the project will help support the evaluation and dissemination of these options through the establishment of a ‘new product’ facility. Private sector stove manufacturers are willing to expand their workshops through capital investments provided there is in place a quality control system and a robust marketing campaign, both elements of GEF support. The total cost of the alternative is $ 750,000. Finally, GEF support is requested to finance the incremental costs associated to a more structured monitoring and evaluation of the program activities, including monitoring of emissions reductions, periodic market assessments, and evaluation of the program activities. The total cost of the alternative is US$ 244,863. 13 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief Incremental Cost Matrix (US$) Baseline Alternative Increment (Alternative – Baseline) - Less CO2 emissions by Mongolia. - Best Practice case for other countries. Global environmental benefits Lower CO2 emission reduction, about 7,500 tons of CO2 in four years. Domestic benefits Un-sustainable reduction in respiratory infections caused by indoor pollution Sustained CO2 emissions reductions from improved household stoves: 140,000 tons of CO2 by end of 4 year program. Sustained reduction in respiratory infections caused by indoor pollution Costs (US$) Baseline Costs Alternative Costs Reduced air pollution in main cities from indoor household stoves Incremental Costs 1. Social & marketing activities 2. Quality Assurance and standards 3. Capacity building and service providers 4. New Product Facility-Market Development 5. Monitoring and Evaluation TOTAL 7,500 197,500 190,000 0 120,000 120,000 10,000 260,000 250,000 500,000 750,000 250,000 60,200 244,863 184,663 577,700 1,572,363 994,663 Out of a total of US$ 994,663 required as incremental costs, a total of US$ 750,000 is requested from GEF, the balance to be covered by private sector investments to expand manufacturing capacity. BUDGET Total budget for the alternative GEF scenario is US$ 1.57 million, GEF is asked to provide US$ 750,000 funding ( 48 percent) for the four-year project period. The Government has signed an agreement with the Japanese aid agency, JICA, to provide up to $ 500,000 in steel supplies to re-sell them to stove manufacturers, additionally two of the private stove manufacturers are developing business plans to be presented to SME lending facilities, to expand their workshops during the second year of the program to produce improved stoves. While current expected lending to stove manufacturers under discussion is about US$ 250,000, this proposal has taken a conservative case of US$ 150,000. 14 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief GEF GOVERNMENT 94,000 78,200 172,200 Subcontracts 410,000 7,500 417,500 Training 180,000 Equipment 50,000 Travel 16,000 4,460 Office Rent/sundries ----- 36,400 Production Capacity: ----- ---- 25,000 20,803 775,000 147,363 Personnel: Evaluation & Co-financing TOTAL Monitoring 180,000 50,000 20,460 36,400 650,000 650,000 Private Sector/JICA PDF-A 45,803 (Received) TOTAL 650,000 1,572,262 Monitoring & Evaluation includes salaries for PIU staff, subcontracts to local NGOs in order to carry out socio-economic assessments, to international consultants to do market assessments, and to equipment to monitor CO2 emissions in the targeted areas in the ger districts. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Project implementation will take four years. The Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE) is the project executing agency. The MNE will implement the project in partnership with the Ulaanbaatar City Municipality (UCM). The MNE will sign a formal Memorandum of Understanding with the Ulaanbaatar City Municipality regarding activities and responsibilities of the Municipality’s staff. A part-time project coordinator will be assigned by MNE from within its staff to coordinate project activities. The project coordinator will report to a steering committee chaired by the State Secretary at the MNE and comprising representatives of the different stakeholders, including the Municipal Government. MNE will also appoint and house a projectfunded full-time project manager, together with a part-time accountant, to deal with day-to-day management. Ideally, the project manager would be someone involved with the preparation activities. It is envisioned that project execution will be carried out, to a large extent, under contract to a local NGOs with extensive experience and track record in implementing development projects in the ger areas. Following identification of the project manager and accountant, training will be arranged on World Bank disbursement and procurement procedures. First year activities will involve setting up training programs for stove manufacturers and mobile service providers, marketing activities to disseminate results of PDF and ESMAP pilot programs, assisting stove manufacturers in laying out their business plans and securing financing for expansion and working with retailers in setting-up their open market centers where improved stoves will be shown. Hence, first year activities will lay the ground for the rest of the program. Second and third year activities will focus on making available to consumers the various products to improve cooking practices and reduce coal consumption, working with the micro-credit agencies as financial delivery system for consumers, and, based on market assessments, 15 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief realigning the program as needed to ensure achievement of the outlined objectives. The last year will focus on conducting market assessments and a scale-up program to move the program to other cities and the Aimag centers under a more market based delivery system, with the Government playing a role of coordinator and quality control. PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT PLAN Stakeholder identification Stakeholders involved in project execution 1. Ministry of Nature and Environment. The project executing agency and originator of the project. 2. Ulaanbaatar Municipality. Major supporter and facilitator of the project. 3. Other municipalities. To be decided. 4. Mongolian Women’s Federation – Active and well-established group with credibility in promoting development and poverty-alleviation activities. 5. Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Alleviation of respiratory diseases and conditions is one of the Ministry’s primary aims and their local staff will work with the project to disseminate information 6. Municipality media. The involvement of the media (newspaper, radio and TV) owned by the UB Municipality in information dissemination is available as part of the GoM contribution. Other media channels are fully expected to become involved also. 7. Stove Manufacturers 8. Micro-credit facilities. All the above will have representation on the Project Steering Committee to be chaired by the MNE State Secretary. Beneficiary groups 1. The population of ger areas in of Ulaanbaatar and other urban centers. Benefiting through cash savings on fuel purchases, improved air quality inside and outside their homes. 2. The remaining population of the urban areas. Benefiting through improved air quality. 3. Energy Service Providers. Trained by the project with skills and business training into jobs with demand. Local groups likely to be affected by project outcomes The project will facilitate the creation of a new type of service, and consequent employment, in the market, that is the mobile energy service provider, a small business run by technicians whose line of business will be to install the improvement kits to the more than 50,000 traditional stoves in the ger district. Coal suppliers will be affected by reduced coal purchases from poor households in the ger district, which account for about 8 percent of coal sales. However, as part of the IDA supported Coal rehabilitation project, the Baganuur coal mine is taking steps to optimize coal production levels. There may be a minor effect on fuel-wood traders, which exploit the scarce forest resources around Ulaanbaatar, however, this may be marginal since most of the fuel used for cooking and heating purposes is coal. Other civil society groups with an interest in the project Buddhist beliefs run deep among the inhabitants of the ger district. The concept of fire and handling of ashes is very important in Buddhist belief, consequently, as part of the consultation 16 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief process during project preparation, the project team has been benefited by the participation of the Supreme Lama, as advisor on those aspects related to the handling of fire and ashes by technicians. The Supreme Lama of Mongolia will participate in the launching of the project by leading a fire ceremony. Information dissemination and consultation Information dissemination and consultation are at the heart of this project and indeed depends on it. There will be exchange of information both from the project to the stakeholders about innovations and improvements, but also through the constant interactions between householder and householder, householders with the Energy Service providers and khoroo chairmen, khoroo chairmen with the Municipality and the municipality, etc. The media will serve the project objectives by both receiving and disseminating information . The types of household surveys already conducted during preparation will be refined and continued through the project, and information so obtained will be transferred to the Project Office. However, there are other channels by which information will flow and both the market and the project will be attentive to this. Stakeholder participation Just as stakeholder participation has been central in the design of the project, that will continue to be the case through the execution of the project itself, with the primary forum for action being the Steering Committee. Social and participation issues As outlined above, a socio-cultural issue which has received attention during preparation is the impact of the widely-held belief concerning the golomt – the hearth/fire spirit. The stove occupies the center of the ger whose construction begins with its mounting. Apart from its important utilitarian purposes of heat and cooking, the stove symbolizes ties with the family's ancestors. One is not allowed to stretch one's legs towards the stove, throw trash into it, or bring sharp pointed objects close to it. Desecration of the stove is a sin and an insult to the master of the house. The golomt is the highest being in the household and it dwells within stoves, bringing peace and good luck to those within the ger or house. The fire spirit can be passed from parent to ‘best’ child at the discretion of the parents, and the decision to change to a new stove requires a consideration of the golomt. When a new stove is installed, a lama or priest takes ash from the old one to place in the new one and prays that the golomt will reside in the new stove and bring blessings on the family as before. The reason there is no significant market for second-hand stoves is because a buyer would not know about the golomt of the previous owner. The work of the team preparing the project’s Social Marketing Component included consideration of the golomt and the component will both build and be sensitive to the constraints (‘desecration’ of the stove during installation of kits) and opportunities (having the project activities seen as beneficial and respectful to the golomt). Other socio-cultural issues have been brought to the attention of the stove testers/designers during the survey work, such as the householders’ need to be able to see the fire, to be able to feel the heat of the stove directly from the side of the stove, etc. and these have been incorporated into design. 17 02/12/16 Mongolia: Improved Urban Stoves June 20, 2000 Medium-Sized Project Brief MONITORING AND EVALUATION PLAN Monitoring of the project will be done through the steering committee to be chaired by the State Secretary at the MNE. The PIU, to be housed at the MNE, will work in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health/WHO, particularly on measuring the impact, and local benefits, of reduced air pollution. Together with the municipality, the PIU will operate three sets of field monitoring equipment for NO2, fine and coarse particulates, and CO2 for use within ger communities in UB. The PIU will set-up a monitoring system in place to have ex-ante, during and ex-post information on the main indicators, including: number of consumers reached and influenced to purchase improved stoves and/or improvement kits, quality guidelines issued by central laboratory on quality standards, number of active manufacturers and working service providers and number of proposed innovations reviewed, random samples of improved stoves in operation and their respective specific CO2 emissions, attitude surveys on consumers; and refined base map of forest cover around the Ulaanbaatar Municipality area. There are no government plans to have more forest cover maps produced within the period of the project and so within the project it is intended to use GPS technology to produce a refined base map and to repeat the mapping at mid-term and before the final Impact Study. In this way the extent of forest areas will be monitored to measure impacts of the improved stoves on local fuelwood gathering, jointly with household surveys throughout the project to monitor the quantity of fuelwood and coal purchased. With the above information at hand, the PIU will produce an evaluation report prior to project completion. 18 02/12/16