Report of the 1st ACRE workshop:
Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and
Climate Applications
MeteoSwiss
Krähbühlstrasse 58
Postfach 514
CH-8044 Zürich
Switzerland
Monday 23 June to Wednesday 25 June, 2008
.
QCCCE
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Report of the 1st ACRE workshop:
Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and
Climate Applications
MeteoSwiss
Krähbühlstrasse 58
Postfach 514
CH-8044 Zürich
Switzerland
Monday 23 June to Wednesday 25 June, 2008
Compiled by Rob Allan and Catharine Ward
Met Office Hadley Centre,
Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
United Kingdom
Email: rob.allan@metoffice.gov.uk
Tel: +44 (0) 1392 886904
Fax: +44 (0) 1392 885681
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Introduction
This report provides a comprehensive review of the presentations, discussions and
outcomes of the first workshop of the international ACRE initiative.
The aim of the workshop was to mirror the ACRE initiative, by bring together
researchers recovering, imaging, digitising and archiving historical data for reanalyses,
together with developers of various reanalyses and those from the climate applications
and impacts communities who have an interest in using reanalysis products. It was
hoped that in such an assembly, participants would be able to gain a better appreciation
of each others efforts and needs so that a firmer basis for collaboration and cooperation
could be forged, with users being primed in terms of their expectations of, and feedback
on, the range of products that will flow from the first release of the full 20th Century
Reanalysis Project (1892-2008) early in 2009.
This is planned to be the first of several major workshops bringing together those
involved in the full range of activities under the ACRE initiative. As a result of this first
workshop, and the creation of four working groups (detailed in the body of the text)
within ACRE, there will now be scope for more specific working group meetings.
Such a workshop would not have been possible without a great detail of help, support
and finances. Thus, I would like to take this opportunity to thank the following. The
generous financial support of PartnerRe (thanks to Malcolm Haylock), the US GCOS
Office (thanks to Howard Diamond), PlatinumRe (especially John Buchanan), the Met
Office and the Climatology and Meteorology Section at the University of Bern (especially
Juerg Luterbacher), the provision of a meeting room by MeteoSwiss (thanks to Paul
Della-Marta and Gabriela Seiz) and the logistical support and facilities of the Swiss GCOS
Office (thanks to Gabriela Seiz and her team). I must also thank Catharine Ward for
taking the minutes and notes from the workshop and aiding me in writing up this
publication, Craig Donlon and Roger Stone for their aid in helping to run the discussion
sessions, all of the session chairs and all of the participants.
Rob Allan
ACRE Project Manager
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Delegates attending the 1st ACRE workshop, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland, 2008
WORKSHOP & REPORT SPONSORS
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
2
Workshop introduction, overview and aims
2.1
Opening and welcome address, Rob Allan, Met Office Hadley Centre
and Gabriela Seiz, Swiss GCOS Office and MeteoSwiss
Rob Allan welcomed everyone to the meeting and introduced Gabriela Seiz from the
Swiss GCOS Office. Gabriela Seiz explained that the Federal Office of Meteorology and
Climatology MeteoSwiss is the Swiss national weather service. It is involved with data
acquisition and exchange, weather forecasts, warnings, climatological information, and
research and development. It is also the national focal point for GCOS (Global Climate
Observing System). Gabriela Seiz explained that GCOS was established in 1992 and is cosponsored by WMO, IOC (UNESCO), UNEP and ICSU. Further information about
MeteoSwiss can be found on the www.gcos.ch site. Finally, Gabriela Seiz wished
everyone a ‘successful meeting’.
Rob Allan thanked Gabriela Seiz for her excellent introduction and went on to thank her
and the Swiss GCOS team for hosting the meeting and making their facilities available
for it, and those organisations who had provided funds to support the workshop –
PartnerRe (especially Malcolm Haylock), the US GCOS Office (especially Howard
Diamond), PlatinumRe (special thanks to John Buchanan), the Met Office and the
Climatology and Meteorology Section at the University of Bern (especially Juerg
Luterbacher).
Rob Allan then presented an overview of the international ACRE (Atmospheric
Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth) initiative. He began by explaining that ACRE
is an international collaborative project led by a consortium of the Queensland Climate
Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) in Australia, the Met Office Hadley Centre in the
UK, and NOAA ESRL and CIRES at the University of Colorado in the US. The initiative
encompasses the recovery of historical global daily to sub-daily weather observations
underpinning historical climate reanalyses, to the development of tailored and
downscaled products from the 3D weather variables generated by the reanalyses, to the
provision of these products for climate applications, climate impacts and as input into
biophysical and production models.
The initial focus of ACRE will be to support the NOAA ESRL and CIRES 20 th Century
Reanalysis Project, covering the period from 1892 to 2008. This reanalysis assimilates
only surface terrestrial and marine weather variables and uses a numerical weather
prediction model and an advanced method to produce a unique global reanalysis
product of weather conditions over the depth of the atmosphere at 2 x 2 degree global
resolution back through time. At each 6-hourly time step, this reanalysis will produce a
56-member ensemble output (56 realisations) and error estimates of historical 3D
weather variables over the globe.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
ACRE will also support the data needs for even longer CIRES/NOAA surface input-based
reanalyses. The initiative is leading the recovery, imaging, digitisation and archiving of
surface observational data coverage for global reanalyses back to the early to mid-19th
century (NOAA-CIRES Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications [SIRCA]: 1840s2011), and specifically over the North Atlantic-European region from the mid-18th
century to the present.
These ACRE-facilitated reanalyses will produce the longest global database of
reconstructed 3D atmospheric weather conditions to date. This database will constitute
a climate quality reanalysis product, that can be downscaled and tailored so that its
output feeds directly into various production (crop, water, economic etc) and
environmental (storm, storm surge etc.) models, enabling researchers and a myriad of
users to evaluate and reevaluate climatic variability and climate change influences,
impacts and modulations on the environment, society, resources and infrastructures on
global through to regional and local scales. This will make it possible to address the
nature, intensity and frequency of climatic impacts, such as floods, storms and droughts,
in ways and over time spans not previously possible.
3
Session on reanalysis approaches (Chair: Phil Jones, CRU,
UEA)
3.1
ECMWF reanalysis: past and present, Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee
(ECMWF)
Sakari Uppala explained that ECMWF have produced three major reanalyses: ERA-15,
ERA-40 and ERA-Interim
 ERA-Interim concentrates on more recent periods – improvements over time in
initial state based on ERA activities
 System improvements – inclusion of SST and Sea Ice.
 Satellites using radiances
 Introduction of satellite data is critical to reanalysis quality, especially in the
Southern Hemisphere.
 Trend estimates from 3 data sets are different by 0.1 – 0.3K
 Volcanic impacts, such as El Chichon and Pinatubo are well estimated.
 Radar Altimetry: elevation changes show good agreement with in-situ data
 1953 UK storm case as a validation with no satellite data – network was well
designed in this period but sparse
 ERA-Interim: Data assimilation system improved four-dimensional variational
analysis (4DVAR), every 12 hours, better use of radiances, better bias correction
– variational bias correction is working well for satellites
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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3.2
Problem areas: Total column water vapour: reduction in the ERA-40 bias – better
model humidity formulation
Also benefits from intercomparisons with Japanese reanalysis and Remote
Sensing Systems outputs. Interim and Japanese reanalysis confirm the humidity
situation
Precipitation: Important for many applications – ERA-interim is better
Precipitation-Evaporation is very good in latter period of ERA40
Predictability is better as initial state is better
ERA-interim: needs better collaboration – better SST and Sea-Ice limits
Need to have better model and observational biases.
Improvements in application of global radiosonde use – results show dramatic
improvements over the oceans
Increased need to understand the application of all the radiance data sets from
space – need to explore jumps through impact studies.
Improvements due to 4DVAR – model is evolving
ERA-75 – aim to start in 2012 probably finished within 3 years so outputs to
appear in 2015.
Human resourcing is the limiting factor in all of this at ECMWF
When would be the last available time for input data for ERA-75? When we start
in 2012
What about SST’s and radiances? SST is a special case and one could use
retrievals – use bathythermographs for currents
Upper air data and reconstructions into the early 20th century, Stefan
Bronnimann and Andrea Grant (ETH)
Andrea Grant explained that they have compiled upper air data from radiosondes prior
to the 1940s. Validation of the data has been achieved through the use of surface
meteorological data. Corrections have had to be made to the radiosonde data, for
example some of the main errors are from radiation – especially over Russia – 1K
corrections at 500hPa – more at higher elevations and errors are evident in ERA-40.
Stefan Bronniman explained that the corrected data sets are being used to develop a
long predictor for reconstruction from 1880 -> present – upper air data in the latter part
of record. The globe was divided into three areas, Northern Hemisphere (NH), Tropics
(T) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). The NH showed better correlation for surface
temperatures. In the extra tropics, geopotential height is better than temperature.
Summer stratosphere at 100 hPa, for example in 1938 is poor.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Improvements come at ~1935 with the introduction of upper-air data. Examples were
given to show the benefits of data, for example climate anomalies of 1940s, Arctic
warming in the 1930s.
Stefan Bronnimann concluded by saying that more historical upper-air data are available
than is commonly known, but more work on quality is needed. Statistical
reconstructions are available. Together, they allow a glimpse at the 3rd dimension prior
to the existing ‘all data’ reanalyses.
3.3
US Reanalyses, Phil Arkin (ESSIC)
Phil Arkin gave a history of US atmospheric reanalyses. He explained that the reanalyses
are scientifically extremely important, as indicated by the fact that they have generated
tremendous R&D citations.
 Reanalyses need to be updated periodically, due to improvements in data and
assimilation schemes
 In the USA, a successor effort to the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis was not underway,
so NOAA, NASA and NSF sponsored a workshop in 2003 to promote reanalyses
efforts
 Since this time there has been some response and several projects are moving
forward
 The Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is
a NASA effort to reanalyze the atmosphere in the satellite era
 It will extend from 1979 to present with a ½ degree resolution model, 72 model
layers, hourly surface and 2D diagnostics, surfaces up into the stratosphere.
 Using incremental analysis updates as a data assimilation system – provides a
smooth data variability.
 Mike Bolisovich is the person to contact on MERRA and The Global HighResolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Pilot Project
 The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Forecast system (CFSRR) is a
NOAA/NCEP effort that will perform a coupled ocean, land and atmosphere
reanalysis of the satellite era based on the operational Climate Forecast System
at NCEP
 The CFSRR will provide ocean and atmosphere global reanalysis for 28 years,
1982-2009, for skill estimates in seasonal forecasting
 It will be conducted using four streams with 6 month overlaps 1979-1989, 19891998, 1998-2004, 2004-2009
 The NOAA Climate Prediction Center hopes to perform a new extended
reanalysis using the CFSRR system for the period beginning in 1940 to use as a
new climate monitoring tool. This effort is in the planning (White paper) stage.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Climate Information: Responding to User Needs (CIRUN) is a project established
at
the
University
of
Maryland,
run
by
Tony
Busalacchi
(http://climateneeds.umd.edu/) to improve our ability to predict changes in the
Earth System and to use such predictions. The initial major workshop was held in
2007 and provided a number of recommendations. Further workshops are
planned to take forward and start to build a regional Earth Systems Model (ESM)
of the Chesapeake Bay region of the US. The initial conditions required for this
coupled regional system to provide predictions and hindcasts will require a
regional reanalysis. – see slides in ppt presentation.
Regional projects are important as there is a good connection to local users –
used Baltimore storm surge as an example
Status and Plan of the NCEP CFSRR Project
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/877961/Status-and-Plan-of-the-NCEP-CFSRR-Project
3.4
SST reanalysis within the GHRSST-PP, Craig Donlon, (MO) and
Kenneth Casey, (NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center - NODC)
Craig Donlon began by stating that SST is one of the most important and famous climate
variables. SST is required for:
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Climate model initialisation
Diagnostics and fundamental climate monitoring.
The most important requirements are that the observations:
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Must be accurate - Absolute accuracy 0.2 K or better
Stability of the entire satellite record
Well calibrated between satellite missions and instruments. Satellites reduce
uncertainty in global temperature measurements.
Global coverage 50 km
Timeliness months to years
Adherence to the GCOS Climate monitoring principles
Considering the best estimates of global warming trends, SST data sets should be
exceptionally stable to better than 0.1K/decade if with a mean zero bias.
Ken Casey then explained the Global High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature
(GHRSST) reanalysis program. He began by saying that the focus is on delayed-mode,
climate data records. The two main goals of GHRSST Reanalysis are to deliver improved
SST reanalysis products and connect the modern record with historical reconstructions.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Achieving these goals requires a comprehensive, international approach which is
coordinated through the GHRSST Long Term Stewardship and Reanalysis Facility (LTSRF,
http://ghrsst.nodc.noaa.gov/) at NODC.
Substantial progress toward achieving these goals has been achieved by significantly
improving the access to and quality of the input data sources needed for SST reanalysis.
For example, access to all GHRSST data is enabled at the LTSRF through:
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Automatic daily acquisition and archive of all GHRSST data from the GHRSST Global
Data Assembly Center
30-day delay from observation to archive
All data made available through various mechanisms:
o HTTP: http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/ghrsst
o FTP: ftp://data.nodc.noaa.gov/pub/data.nodc/ghrsst
OPeNDAP: http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/nph-dods/ghrsst
All data searchable via the NODC Ocean Archive System:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/search/prod/accessionsView.pl/pref
Extensive metadata - both FGDC and original DIF
Additionally, improvements to the quality of inputs are being achieved through
coordinated international efforts. For example:
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Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder
 V6 in GHRSST L2 and L3 - with errors and HRPT data
 3rd party: Bias correction using ATSR; AVHRR recalibration, etc.
Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR)
 V2: Consistently reprocessed, ready in autumn 2008
 V3: (A)RC L1 by end September, baseline product by January, completed
late 2009
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
 Partial plans for Aqua reprocessing
Sea Ice
 A reprocessing of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from
1987 to 2005 using the OSI-SAF system.
 Using swath data with Tb and geo-location corrections from Remote
Sensing Systems
 Using dynamic tiepoints and tracking error propagation.
Hadley Centre Global Sea Surface Temperature (HadSST) in situ data
 Gridded data set of in situ SST from 1850 onwards
 Bias corrected
 Quantified uncertainties
 Flexible spatio-temporal resolution
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Efforts are also directed to improve the output reanalysis products by connecting the
modern record with historical reconstruction and increase understanding through inter
comparison for example, GHRSST/GCOS SST intercomparisons where the aim is to
understand differences between SST analyses to create better, long-term SST climate
data records and to link modern satellite-based records with the historical, primarily in
situ-based records.
3.5
SODA Ocean reanalysis, Jim Carton, (UMD)
Jim Carton explained that they have begun analyzing and comparing the ocean
reanalyses led by the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).
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Example: 12 reanalysis efforts are in progress (at least)
10-15 yrs behind NWP community in some respects – some Optimum
Interpolation (OI) only reanalyses used in IPCC
Most reanalyses are using sequential techniques – only one uses 4DVAR
(GECCO), some use a coupled ocean-atmosphere approach
Heat content warming of ocean – differences between model and OI only
analyses
substantial biases in ocean reanalyses related to manufacture of XBT/CTD data –
recalibrated data – shows a dramatic worming
N Atlantic warming is very dramatic - see Nature paper
Hawaii ocean time series (HOT) shows the rainfall in 1995-1997 impacting on the
salinity record – salinity anomalies moved into the deep ocean over several
years. Different salinity fields in the different analyses – Work to be done
GODAE has begun to compare analyses, XBT’s have a warm bias in the 1970’s
which is now being addressed – ocean warming more than thought
Vertical structure varies in terms of stratification etc. Need to get on top of this
– there are substantial disagreements in the thermal stratification, its variability
and we need to address this asap.
Bathythermographs have clear warm bias in the 1970s. Several efforts are
underway to address this problem
Sequential Ocean reanalyses show qualitative agreement when vertically
averaged except in the Southern Ocean
Vertical structure of the stratification in the upper ocean and its variability
remains uncertain. These issues need to be improved before coupled
assimilation will be useful.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
3.6
20th century Reanalysis Project and Historical Analyses, Gil Compo,
(NOAA ESRL & CIRES, University of Colorado)
Gil Compo explained that the 20th century Reanalysis project is an international
collaborative project led by NOAA and CIRES to produce high quality tropospheric
reanalyses for the last 100 years, using only surface observations.
The reanalyses will provide the first-ever estimates of near-surface and tropospheric 6hourly fields extending back to the beginning of the 20th century; including estimates of
biases and uncertainties in the basic reanalyses and estimates of biases and
uncertainties in derived quantities (storm tracks, etc.).
The Initial product will have higher quality in the Northern Hemisphere than in the
Southern Hemisphere.
 Uses only a surface network – especially surface pressure
 If you have an advanced data assimilation system (e.g. 4DVAR), surface pressure
alone could do a good job.
 The 20th Century Reanalysis Project was initiated to explore surface weather data
input-only reanalyses
 Need international collaboration to get data together to do the reanalysis
 6 hourly and ensemble uncertainties and biases by comparing to satellite and
recent data
 Derived uncertainties for quantities e.g. storm tracks
 Northern Hemisphere will be better than Southern Hemisphere just due to data
availability
 Already done the 1908-2008 period
 56 ensemble mean ~ 2deg 28 levels nearly same as the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model.
 Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) data set
SST & sea-ice are important
 New International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) – under the GCOS
AOPC/OOPC WG-SP
 Expect accuracies similar to 3-day forecast
 Effectively doubling the existing ‘all input data’ reanalysis record length
 Useful for US extremes in the 1930s and 1950s and extreme tornadoes
 Better understand of Arctic situation, especially in the 1940’s
 For version 3, ACRE needs to prepare data by August 2010 => try to resolve a
longer period at higher resolution – can we get to hurricanes and other higher
impact phenomena
 Need model errors
 Need big computers
 Need many more additional observations => ACRE!!
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Gil Compo summarized his presentation by saying that in terms of accuracy, midtropospheric NH fields are about as accurate as current 3-day forecasts. Implications
are: effectively doubling the existing reanalysis record length; climate model validation
dataset for large-scale synoptic anomalies during extreme periods, such as droughts
(30’s, 50’s) and extreme tornado outbreaks and a better understanding of events such
as the 1920-1940’s Arctic warming.
So far, 1908-1958 has been done, with the full 1892-present done by Spring 2009. The
data will be freely available from NCAR, NOAA/ESRL and NOAA/NCDC; 1908-1958 in
autumn, 2008 and 1892-2007 in spring, 2009.
The project is partnering with the GCOS AOPC/OOPC WG-SP (Working Group on Surface
Pressure), GCOS/WCRP WG-ODS (Working Group on Observational Datasets for
Reanalysis), ACRE (Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth), RECLAIM
(RECovery of Logbooks And International Marine data), NOAA/CDMP, many National
and University surface pressure data recovery efforts.
• For status updates, please email:
• jeffrey.s.whitaker@noaa.gov,
• gilbert.p.compo@noaa.gov
• compo@colorado.edu
4
Session on historical reanalyses data (Chair: Roger Stone,
USQ)
4.1
Europe and Northern Hemisphere, Phil Jones, (CRU, UEA)
Phil Jones explained that the advantage of early pressure observations over other
observed variables is that in general, early observers knew how to use a barometer.
Temperature, elevation and gravity adjustments can generally be taken care of quite
easily. Times of daily observations are also generally quite easy to deal with – from
detailed observations that have often been made in many locations for 10-year periods.
Pressure is much easier to homogenize than early temperature and precipitation
measurements
So far, the emphasis seems to be on Max/Min temperature and precipitation, but it is
relatively easy to add in mean sea level pressure (MSLP). Datasets such as the European
Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) (http://eca.knmi.nl/) and EU-funded
ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) daily digitization (and gridding) has
included MSLP, but fewer National Meteorological Services (NMS) have sent long series.
Jones believes that many seem unaware of the importance of MSLP data, and the fact
that it is far easier to homogenize than temperature and precipitation.
He went on to say that digitization needs to be justified and one important user of
weather data is the Insurance Industry
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Windstorms are the major insurance peril in Europe, and claims far outweigh fluvial or
coastal flooding. Daily data are vital to develop long-term trends in circulation features
and provide the best means of developing long series that are proxies for windiness. For
example:
 Sub-daily (e.g. 3-hourly) data can be used to provide long series of rapidly
deepening rates of storms
 CLImatological database for the World’s OCeans 1750-1850 (CLIWOC) – marine
data
 Pressure data enable robust estimates of wind strength variations to be made
over centuries
Many long MSLP records exist, but much is monthly, however, the daily observations
should be there but finding them is often the problem.
Many NMS are unaware of the potential usefulness of daily and sub-daily MSLP data
Phil Jones concluded that ERA-75 won’t be any better than ERA-40 for the pre-1979
period if more observational data are not added into international data repositories.
4.2
Blending station pressure data and ships logbooks, Marcel Kuettel,
M. (UBERN)
Marcel Kuettel explained that instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) records are primarily
available from the mid-19th century onwards. Information on past SLP further back in
time has been obtained only from proxy information and, until recently, there has been
no information from the open sea.
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However, there is a source of information available, and this is the in the form of
ship log data. This source contains information on wind direction and wind
strength back to 1750 (CLIWOC project)
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Long instrumental records and ship log information were combined to obtain a
seasonally resolved SLP reconstruction for North Atlantic, Europe and
Mediterranean region.
Marcel Keuttel summarised his presentation by saying that the combined use of
instrumental SLP series and wind information derived from CLIWOC improves
reconstruction skill particularly over the southern North Atlantic and during winter
At present, only reconstructions at the seasonal resolution back to 1750 are possible,
but many thousands of logbooks, found primarily in British archives, have yet to be
digitised. These logs would improve the spatial and temporal resolution and extend the
record further back in time
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
4.3
An application of the 250 year blended ship log book and station SLP
set: Influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on
Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, Juerg Luterbacher,
(UBERN)
Juerg Luterbacher explained that the Mediterranean is a ‘Hot-Spot’ for which potential
climate change impacts on the environment and other activity sectors are particularly
pronounced.
Local/regional feedbacks (e.g. soil moisture-precipitation feedback), changes in
atmospheric circulation and modes of natural variability are of importance, as is the
hydrological cycle and winter precipitation for water resources and water quality,
agriculture & environment and economics & social development & behaviour.
Independent climate reconstructions for the past 250 years allow us to study the
influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Mediterranean winter
temperature and precipitation variability back to 1750 (Xoplaki et al. 2008).
Independent reconstructions used the following data:
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Gridded
temperature
1750-2006,
Mediterranean
land
areas
(Luterbacher et al. 2004, 1901-2006 Climatic Research Unit)
Gridded
precipitation
1750-2006,
Mediterranean
land
areas
(Pauling et al. 2006, 1901-2006 Climatic Research Unit)
Gridded SLP 1750-2006, combined station pressure and CLIWOC/ICOADS data
(Allan and Ansell, 2006; Küttel et al. 2008)
The method used was:
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Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
Selection
of
optimally
correlated
patterns
and Mediterranean temperature & precipitation
between
SLP
Juerg Luterbacher summarised his presentation by saying that the new dataset,
including ship logbook information and station pressure series (Küttel et al. 2008),
allows dynamical studies of large-scale influences on European climate back to AD 1750
(Xoplaki et al. 2008). Cross validated results indicate good predictive skill in the north
and west (precipitation) and north and east (temperature) regions. Recent dry and
warm winter conditions over the entire Mediterranean seem not to be unique in the
context of the past 250 years, though this might not to be case for Mediterranean sub
regions.
Regional differences identified are:
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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4.4
The combined influence of two atmospheric patterns (NAO, East Atlantic /
Western Russia) account significantly for the recent drier and warmer trend
Scenarios indicate a trend towards more high pressure situations (similar
patterns found through CCA), therefore, drier and warmer winter conditions.
Implications on environment, economy and society
Assimilation on climatic timescales: Application to the ‘Little Ice
Age’?, Albert Klein Tank, (KNMI)
Albert Klein Tank’s presentation covered the following aspects in the development of a
long climatic reconstruction:
 Dalton Minimum (ca. 1790-1820) – a complex situation - regional and seasonal
variations
 Is there a solar connection?
 Impact of volcanic eruptions?
 Bjerknes’ hypothesis - Anomalous ocean-atmosphere interaction: starting point:
atmospheric circulation reconstruction (1790-1820)
 Problem with assimilating paleodata I: resolution is monthly-seasonal-yearly
 Problem with assimilating paleodata II: no ‘ordinary’ data-assimilation exercise.
 3D/4DVAR methods are useless: low-temporal resolution, low-density network
and low-quality data
 Problem with assimilating paleodata III: two-step approach: upscaling: estimate
large-scale patterns anomalous atmospheric conditions
 Approach:
 Test Bjerknes’ hypothesis by: reconstruction of average January Sea Level
Pressure (SLP) field for 1790-1820, assimilate field in a Global Climate Model
(GCM), and assess climate response: has there been an SST change? Or surface
air temperature (SAT) change?
4.5
Overview of Météo-France data rescue in connection with ACRE and
related projects, Sylvie Jourdain, (Météo-France)
Sylvie Jourdain explained that France has a very long and wealthy meteorological
history. The French began systematic meteorological observations in the late 17th
century but documents before the 18th century are very rare. Most of the observations
in the 18th century were made by the astronomical community, in Paris and Marseille
and the medical community, such as the Royal Society of Medicine (SRM) 1776-1792,
(more than 200 doctors sent their daily observations to Louis Cotte).
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Unfortunately the Royal Society of Medicine was destroyed during the French
Revolution and the meteorological network too.
The first difficulty of developing records is locating the archival material. Alfred Angot
(1895) wrote the first catalogue of meteorological observations in France back to 1850
which contains metadata such as period of observations, name of the observer,
publication and location of original records.
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Louis Angot (1900, 1906) studied the climate of France and built long and reliable
temperature and pressure series from 1850 to 1900
Meteorological readings taken in the 18th and 19th century were printed in
numerous publications (newspapers, annals, statistical reports, memories,
yearbooks.
Monthly or annual summaries were printed in national publications whereas
daily data can be found in departmental or local publications
Paris observatories since the late 17th century
Marseille observatories since 1706
Toulouse observatories since 1801 + military airport
Lyon observatories since 1818 + airport
Bordeaux 1776-1792 (SRM) , 1842- (Sciences university +observatory)
Metz 1779-1786 (SRM), 1841-1886 (military school )
Rochefort 1840-1898 (military hospital)
Strasbourg since 1802 (scientists + observatory + airport)
Perpignan since 1846 (doctors + observatory+ airport)
Missing data during World War 2: 1940-1945 in the North and 1943-1945 in the South
(recovery in progress ) however no gaps for Paris or Marseille.
Sylvie Joudain explained that there are also meteorological records from French colonies
overseas. Meteorological observations started in the early 19th century in overseas
colonies, but were formally organised in 1852 in military hospitals in Cayenne (French
Guyana), Point-à Pitre (Guadeloupe), Nouméa (New-Caledonia), Papeete (Tahiti) and
Fort-de France (Martinique) : As a result, 5 overseas long series back to the mid-19th
century could be built.
Climate data are hidden in many places in France, for example there are Météo-France
archives in at least 100 different locations, ranging from weather stations, departmental
weather centres (96), regional weather centres (7), the Météo-France library, and
overseas weather centres.
Data are also likely to be found in the National archives, departmental archives (98
sites), municipal archives and libraries in all cities, University libraries, research
laboratories, observatory libraries, scientists association libraries, Ministry of Defence
archives (Service Historique de la Défense in Vincennes).
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Furthermore, an increasing number of libraries and archives have scanned original
records or books and made them available on websites. Sylvie Joudain gave a number of
examples, including :
 Sciences Academy archives
http://www.academie-sciences.fr/archives/histoire_memoire.htm
 Medic : Paris Medicine university numerical library, Royal society of medicine
http://www.bium.univ-paris5.fr/histmed/medica.htm
 NOAA Library (Annuaires du Bureau Central Météorologique 1878-1920)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/data_rescue_french.html
 Google Books (annals , memories, reports published in the 19th century)
http://books.google.fr
Sylvie Joudain then explained that data rescue activities at Météo-France are managed
by the Climatology Department (DClim) in Toulouse. The first DARE program started in
1994. In 1994 most series extended back to 1961 and professional stations series
extended back to 1949 in the Météo-France National Climatological Database (BDCLIM).
Digitisation efforts included daily and sub-daily data of professional stations back to
1920 and monthly temperature and monthly rainfall from 1850 to 1960. Further data
were obtained from 19th century material such as, monthly rainfall in France (Raulin)
1715-1880 and Bulletins Mensuels Météorologiques de l’ASF 1871-1876.
New objectives
Daily Temperature, Rainfall, Sunshine Duration and sub-daily Pressure for French
mainland and overseas colonies/territories, with a focus on 20th century records
New means
National Action undertaken by national, regional and departmental services:
Inventories of original written manuscript records archived at Météo-France weather
stations and at departmental archives
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Great effort dedicated to locate relevant data sources by Météo-France agents in
departmental weather centres
Primary component of the national archive :
National Climatological Database (BDCLIM)
New tool for digitisation available in each departmental weather centre (Climsol)
Long-term goal: Complete and lengthen the observatories series
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Great potential: observatory records were taken with meticulous care by early scientists
Paris-observatory 1816-1880: digitization of P stat and T 1816-1880 (4 observations/day)
Paris-Montsouris 1872-1958: digitization of all parameters (8 observations/day)
Marseille 1780-1880: Collaborations with Mariano Barriendos (Barcelona University)
and Georges Pichard (Aix en Provence):
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original paper forms 1744-1790 located and stored in the departmental
archives, microfilms bought from the departmental archives, but 18351865 unreadable
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digitization in process by Météo-France: 1841-1865 sub-daily pressure (4
observations/day) from « Répertoire de Statistique de Marseille » given by
Georges Pichard
Bordeaux 1880-1924
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observatory records located: P and T, 4observations/day, digitisation in
process
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Bordeaux Sciences University: 1842-1856 (Mémoires Académie des
Sciences de Bordeaux, Annuaires SMF), partly digitized, the rest has yet to
be located
Lyon 1880-1920
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« Memories Climatologie Lyonnaise » recently scanned, digitization of subdaily P and T 1880-1920, digitisation action planned
Strasbourg 1802-1870, 1941-1945
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observatory annals and German records during World War 2 recently
rescued, digitization of several parameters 1941-1945,
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recovery action launched to locate the series 1802-1841 Herrenschneider
and 1845-1870 in the military school
Daily climatological reports from old French Colonies in Africa are archived at the
Climatology Department in Toulouse on microfiches and microfilms
DARE action: detailed inventories available from MEditerranean climate DAta REscue
(MEDARE) initiative
Collaboration with the Moroccan National Meteorological Service (NMS)
Data available on microfiches for 30 stations 1924-1936 plus 1945-1962
Annals and daily reports stored at the Météo-France library can complete the series
Morocco data after 1961 are in the Moroccan NMS database
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
DARE initiative: to construct daily series for 5 stations back to 1924 with the
concatenation of the recent data from the Moroccan NMS: Casablanca, Fez, Rabat,
Meknes, Kasbah Tadla,
Météo-France manages the imaging of books and microfiches and the digitization of
daily data
Fundings : EU-CIRCE
Sylvie Jourdain then gave the following resume of her presentation:
France has a very long and data-rich meteorological history going back to the late 18th
century. Great efforts have been made to locate relevant data sources, because the
instrumental records are dispersed.
A huge amount of climatic data is still to be rescued in France for the last 200 years and
will extend markedly daily and sub-daily series.
The construction of long and reliable instrumental series is a underway: recovery of the
records, data and metadata recovery, imaging, digitisation, quality control and finally
archiving.
Météo-France data rescue is focusing on the 20th century (mainland and colonial
overseas) and, on completion of the long surface pressure series from the astronomical
observatories, will produced vital data for reanalyses projects (e.g. ACRE)
Météo-France aims at improving its climatological heritage, by creating reliable and
usable series for French mainland and overseas colonies. The latter will involve close
collaboration with climate data rescue activities in the old French colonies (EU-CIRCE,
MEDARE).
4.6
RECLAIM and ICOADS, Scott Woodruff. (NOAA, OAR, ESRL)
Scott Woodruff began his presentation by describing the RECLAIM (RECovery of
Logbooks And International Marine data) project, which was initiated in 2004 and builds
upon the European Union (EU)-funded Climatological Database for the World's Oceans
1750-1850 (CLIWOC) project (www.ucm.es/info/cliwoc). Partners currently involved
include the NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP)
(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/cdmp/cdmp.html), KNMI, Met Office, NOAA
and the University of Sunderland. The overall project aims are to image historical ship
logbooks and related marine data and metadata, and digitize the meteorological and
oceanographic observations for merger into the International Comprehensive OceanAtmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and for utilization for climate research.
At present, the CLIWOC website (http://icoads.noaa.gov/reclaim/) is populated with
extensive holdings of imaged US and UK publications, together with detailed UK data
inventories and archive summary information.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Recent accomplishments include imaging by KNMI of 19th century Dutch logbooks
which are planned to be digitized by CDMP, and the jointly funded UK and CDMP effort
to image and digitize selected UK Royal Navy ship’s logs for the data sparse WW II
period (1938-47).
Together with ACRE, the UK National Archives (TNA) and other partners, the
following ongoing and future projects are planned:
 English East India Company (EECI) logbooks (>1K; 1790-1834) at the British
Library (many recorded sea level pressure and air temperature)
 RN Ship’s Logs from ~WW I (1914-23; ~376K days of observations)
 UKHO “Remarks Books” (6K, 1800-1909), Met. Registers (1850-present),
early balloon data from ships, publications, etc.
 Many, many more logbooks (1669-) untapped at TNA and elsewhere
The second part of this presentation discussed the ICOADS project, which was initiated
in 1981 (formerly known as COADS) and is a joint initiative in the US between NOAA
(ESRL and NCDC) and NCAR.
ICOADS has also benefited for many years from extensive international contributions,
recently for example made by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), the Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA), KNMI, UK Met Office and the NOC, Southampton.
The ICOADS website, providing links to data (currently spanning 1784-2007, and with a
major update back to 1684 planned for completion around late 2008) and associated
metadata, can be accessed at http://icoads.noaa.gov/. Scott Woodruff added that
formal links with JCOMM (Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and
Marine Meteorology) are under consideration.
4.7
19th century instrumental observations in the Arctic: An initial
assessment of the availability of sub-daily barometric pressure, air
temperature, and wind records, Catharine Ward, (ACRE) on behalf of
Kevin Wood, and Jim Overland, (NOAA Arctic Research Office)
Catharine Ward explained that Jim Overland and Kevin Wood from the NOAA Arctic
Research Office have carried out an initial survey of the 19th century instrumental record
for the Arctic. So far, their work has concentrated on the Canadian Arctic and the first
International Polar Year (IPY) 1882-1883.
 There were well over a 100 expeditions to the Arctic during 19th century and
many of the reports from these voyages have been published. Kevin Wood
and Jim Overland estimate that there are probably 30-50 expedition reports
published containing hourly weather observations. In addition to these,
there are also observations in logs and meteorological registers.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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A number of examples were given to show the types of data available from
expedition voyages including Parry’s voyage in 1824 and 1825 and Belcher’s
voyage in search of Sir John Franklin in 1852-1854.
 Catharine Ward then went on to explain that the first IPY in 1882-1883 offers
the first data collected simultaneously around the Arctic using more or less
standard instruments and protocol. An example of a typical expedition report
was given, showing hourly observations of various meteorological variables,
thus highlighting the wealth of data collected.
Catharine Ward concluded by saying that Kevin Wood and Jim Overland believe that
these published reports, together with the various logs and meteorological registers, are
a resource that are being underutilized and with time and money, efforts could be made
to digitize these data.
4.8
GCOS AOPC/OOPC Working group on observational datasets for
reanalysis, Russ Vose, (NCDC)
Russ Vose explained that the GCOS/WCRP Working Group on Observational Data Sets
for Reanalysis is a service orientated group. Their main objectives are to review holdings
of “data centers” worldwide and to identify relevant data sets and develop a plan for
the construction and management of reanalysis-related data sets.
Accomplishments so far have been:

an Integrated Surface Data Set (ISD). This data set contains synoptic data for
surface stations worldwide and is the result of an NCDC/NCAR partnership.
Attention will now be given to creating data set inventories and adding data sets.
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the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) which contains sub-daily
pressure data for surface stations worldwide and is an NCDC/ESRL/WG-SP
partnership. Efforts will now be directed at creating version 2 of the ISPD data
set and Russ Vose went on to explain that partners involved are from the
GCOS/AOPC/OOPC Working Group on Surface Pressure (WG-SP). Objectives will
be to Identify, retrieve, digitize, and Q/A sub-daily surface pressure data. These
data will provide a basis for improved circulation fields and new reanalysis
products, such as the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis, the NOAA-CIRES
Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications (SIRCA) 1840s-2011, and the
North Atlantic – European 200-250 yr reanalysis that are all linked to ACRE
activities.
.
Future projects are:
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive v2 (IGRA). This dataset will contain
upper air data for stations worldwide.
Russ Vose explained that the focus will be on adding new datasets, for example: China
(1970s and 1980s) and Mexico, Air Force and MIT datasets (pre-1964), Bronnimann
acquisitions (primarily Europe), NCEP and ECMWF collections, CDMP data: Malawi,
Senegal, Kenya, Mozambique, Niger, U.S., Zambia, French West African data: Benin,
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Gabon, Ivory Coast,
Guinea, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo.
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Satellite Heritage Diagram (SHD) which will be an inventory of satellite
platforms, instruments, periods.
This Russ Vose explained is part of NOAA-NCDC’s Scientific Data Stewardship initiative.
Responsibilities will be to coordinate inventories of satellite data holdings with data
centers. SHD lists historical and operational platforms, instruments, operational periods
and the next step will be to link each platform with the data provider.
In summary, Russ Vose stated that the working group should benefit the reanalysis
community and that they welcome feedback on topics such as high priority datasets.
5
Distribution and downscaling of reanalysis products (Chair:
Paul Della Marta, (MétéoSwiss)
5.1
Showcase EUROGRID towards a European resource for high
resolution gridded climate data and products, Thomas Klein, (SMHI)
Thomas Klein began his presentation by asking, ‘Is there a need for a European core
service component for high-resolution gridded climate data and products?’
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Climate change is a global phenomenon with local impacts, affecting agriculture,
ecosystems, business, industries, water resources, public health, i.e., people’s
daily lives and neighbourhoods
Spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability to impacts of weather- and climate-related
events such as storms, floods, flash floods, soil erosion, coastal erosion,
landslides, droughts, …
”…adaptation measures will be required at regional and local levels to reduce the
adverse impacts of projected climate change and variability…” (IPCC, 2007)
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
The EUROGRID vision – A European resource for gridded climate data and products,
delivering tailored information and added value to a variety of users from Environment,
meteorology+climatology, hydrology, oceanography, energy-sector, agriculture,
forestry, insurance-sector.
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Three drivers:
o Demonstrate that gridded historical meteorological data from NMH’s can
be used for products and services for EU society
o Prepare and investigate EU reanalysis efforts (EURRA –EEA) – not the
work itself
o How could EUROGRID fit into the INSPIRE, GMES, and Globally GEO, WIS,
GEOSS needs?
Showcase is a pilot project of EUROGRID ending in 2008, with in kind
contributions
Grand coordination of activities in EU – use Open standards and info systems
Need a clear idea of user requirements
2 data sets ENSEMBLES and ERAMESAN + other national datasets
Demonstration using 2002/2003 (floods and heatwave) situations in Europe
Use OGC WMS and WCS for distribution
Geospatial aggregation examples
GMES Atmospheric Service (GAS) – air quality, atmospheric. composition,
radiative, forcing of climate, UV and renewable energies
Should include ECV’s – trends, extremes, timely cost effective adaptation
measures
Why high resolution data? Coping with unavoidable consequences of climate
change – local impacts need high resolution data – IPCC 2007 calls for local level
adaptation measures
Need downscaling RAQN/DA experience – need to generate high resolution EU
data from reanalysis activities
Showcase EUROGRID web portal:
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5.2
http://www.e-grid.eu/public/
http://www.e-grid.eu/products/ (still restricted)
BADC web portal experiences, Martin Juckes, (BADC)
Martin Juckes explained that the BADC (British Atmospheric Data Centre) is NERC’s
designated data centre for atmospheric science.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
The role of BADC is to assist UK atmospheric researchers to locate, access and interpret
atmospheric data and to ensure the long-term integrity of atmospheric data produced
by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) projects.“
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Scaling up from ~100Tb to a Pb
New portal linking data centres in the UK, ship, satellite or reanalysis – searches
based on text and regions
Visualisation tools – and IPCC data sets open layers WMS etc
Nice visualisation of data with credits and traceable references
Can also interface to other ~OGC portals
UKCIP downscaling of climate data set projections to the level that town
planners can use
Big gaps between the science and the applications –eg. Use of Probability
Density Functions for maximum temperatures in Bristol
ATSR Kalman filter reanalysis of SST in NE Atlantic
Will be developing a command line interface to the data holdings
BADC aims to capture the data and preserve it for future use
5.3
CAWCR web portal and climate scenarios, Paul Holper,(CSIRO,
CAWCR)
Paul Holper began by detailing the climatic situation in Australia, particularly the
long drought affecting the southern and southeastern parts of the continent.
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Pooled resources between CSIRO and BoM – plus now using a global climate
model called ACCESS, linked to the Met Office in the UK
~250 people based in Melbourne
10yr drought in SE Australia
In SW Australia, rainfall changes in the 1970s and then later in SE Australia
Massive reductions in rainfall in eastern Australia => massive water problems
building huge desalination plants 2008 driest May on record
Double problem as this was during a La Niňa event, when conditions are
normally wetter
Record runs of hot days with temperatures over 35C, 15 days this year, last
record was 8 days
Return periods are much higher – should be a 1/3000yr event but expected to be
more frequent
New climate change projections for Australia released late 2007, with
information State by State, probabilistic data, scenarios for 2030, 50 and 70
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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5.4
Massive
media
coverage,
with
extensive
information
at
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
How do people want climate information? Everyone wants everything in many
different ways.
Massive and growing demand for climate change information
People need information presented in different ways and this needs to be done
in a more systematic manner that is cost effective and provides free of charge
data – very challenging; CSIRO and BoM have come up with a proposed ‘Climate
Projections Online (similar to EUROGRID), at a cost of 15M $AUS. Funding has
yet to be received.
Model downscaling for storm surges, Tom Howard, (MOHC)
Tom Howard provided an overview of aspects of downscaling for storm surge work in
the Met Office Hadley Centre.
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5.5
Long period simulation/statistical analysis
ERA40 used for validation
21st century changes in storminess are small in our ensemble simulations
However, some AR4 models much larger – a crude estimate suggests 21st century
increases of up to 1 metre in the 50 year surge return level due to storminess
alone for the most extreme AR4 model, at the Thames Estuary.
ENSEMBLES statistical
(UCantabria)
downscaling
portal,
Antonio
Cofino,
Antonio Cofino explained that there are many projects around the world producing
global (GCM) and regional (RCM) simulations of climate change.
Many of these projects involve end-uses from impact sectors. However, it is still difficult
for end-users to access the stored simulations and to post-process them to be suitable
for their own models: daily resolution, interpolation to prescribed locations, etc.
There is a need of friendly interactive tools so users can easily run
interpolation/downscaling jobs on their own data using the existing downscaling
techniques and simulation datasets (AR4, Prudence, ENSEMBLES)
So, why the need for statistical downscaling?
 There is a gap between the coarse-resolution outputs available from GCMs and
the regional needs of the end-users. Even if they work at seasonal or climate
change scales, end users normally need daily values interpolated (downscaled)
to the local points or grids of interest.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Downscaling
 Dynamical Downscaling runs regional climate models in reduced domains with
boundary conditions given by the GCMs.
 Statistical Downscaling is based on empirical models fitted to data using
historical records.
The variability of the results obtained using different types of downscaling models in
some studies suggests the importance of using as many statistical downscaling methods
as possible when developing climate-change projections at the local scale.
Data availability, observations from:
• ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset project). Daily datasets of
precipitation, temperature, pressure, humidity, cloud cover, sunshine and snow
depth since 1900 over networks of 100-1000 stations.
 ENSEMBLES 50km gridded daily observation records of precipitation and surface
temperature. 1950-2006.
 GCMs
 Reanalysis & Seasonal2Decadal (S2D) - Data available for the European region:
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis1. 1948-2007,
ERA40 ECMWF: 1957-2002, JRA25
Japanese Reanalysis: 1979-2004
 DEMETER. Multi-model seasonal prediction experiment including seven models
run for six months four times a year using 9 different perturbed initial conditions
(9 members).
 ENSEMBLES Stream 1. Check the help file in the portal for updated information
about this dataset.
 Daily worldwide datasets obtained from different sources: CERA, IPCC data
centre (PCMDI) and local providers.
• PCMDI_CGCM3. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, including
20th century (from 1951 to 2000) and scenarios A1B, B1 (periods 2046-2065 and
2081-2100).
• CERA_MPI-ECHAM5, including 20th century data (1961-2000) and scenarios A1B,
B1, and A2 (2001-2100).
• CNRM-CM3 (local provider), including 20th century (1961-2000) and scenarios
A1B, B1, and A2 (2001-2100).
www.meteo.unican.es/ensembles
The current status is:
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Support for users in ENSEMBLES project.
Data access for Reanalysis, Seasonal2Decadal and Climate Change models.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Users can use common observational datasets or upload their own data for
downscaling.
Data access control based on user authentication and authorization.
User can choose predictors, predictands and transfer function to be used in the
downscaling process.
Quality assessment of the downscaling.
Download the downscaled data.
Future actions are:
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6
Start to open the tool to wider community outside ENSEMBLES project and
Europe.
Data access and storage: towards remote accessing of datasets based on
OPeNDAP. Reanalysis, S2D & ACC simulations.
Incorporate more statistical downscaling tools.
Ongoing work on geographically distributed computing and storage based on
GRID technologies (EGEE, EELA,…).
Session on climate applications and outreach, (Chairs: Gil
Compo, NOAA ESRL & CIRES and Paul Holper, CSIRO,
CAWCR)
Gil Compo welcomed everyone to the second day of the meeting and introduced
Christoph Appenzeller from MeteoSwiss. He invited him to begin his overview of the
Research Activities in the Climate Services at MeteoSwiss.
6.1
Overview of MeteoSwiss climate services: seasonal forecasting to
climate applications and research, Christoph Appenzeller,
(MeteoSwiss)
Christoph Appenzeller explained that the task of MeteoSwiss climate services is to
provide reliable weather and climate data and analyse products for the public,
government, politics and business, yesterday, today and tomorrow.
Digihom is a project set up for the digitisation and homogenisation of long term climate
series in Switzerland. Observations of temperature (mean, min, max), precipitation,
sunshine duration and air pressure (partly) are collected through the Swiss National
Basic Climatological Network (Swiss NBCN).
See: Begert et al., (2005) Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of
Switzerland from 1864 to 2000, Int. J. Climatology. 25: 65–80
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Other activities are:
EU FP6 ENSEMBLES WP 5.1 - Development of a daily high-resolution gridded
observational dataset for Europe. MeteoSwiss have created an automatic detection
procedure for discontinuities in large datasets.
Re-Analysis ERA-40 and observations. Example Ozone over Arosa.
See: Kunz, H., S. Scherrer, C. Appenzeller and M. Liniger, (2007) The evolution of ERA-40
surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series,
Meteorol. Z., DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0183
Development of a new long snow series in the Alps.
See: Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, and M. Laternser, (2004) Trends in Swiss Alpine
snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31,
L13215, doi:10.1029/2004GL020255.
Christoph Appenzeller then presented some recent highlights from MeteoSwiss research
within The National Centre for Competence in Research – Climate.
Finally, Christoph Appenzeller wished everyone a pleasant stay in Zurich.
6.2
Prospects for and value of long-term series data, including global
reanalysis data sets, in the development of global climate derivatives
with special application to the agricultural sector, Roger Stone, (USQ)
Roger Stone presented an overview of work on global climate derivatives.
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People are keen on indices – esp. reinsurance industry and seasonal forecasting
Seasonal forecasting has only marginal skill in some areas, but hedging and
weather derivatives only need something that is marginally better than
climatology
Weather risk is important
Volatility of agricultural production
Yield and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – good relationship to crop yield -=
reinsurance loves this – even though the Correlation is not great. Some years
where it doesn’t work- So looks okay, but climate and weather derivatives need
something better.
So, industry wants more indices!!! – wheat crop still not great with SOI
Probability of exceeding median rainfall
Trading risk is lucrative
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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6.3
Global indices are required for weather and climate derivatives. – several indices
are required
Weather risk management – develop hedging strategies over several time
periods
Climate Anomaly Indicators – global vs site specific seem to be a useful tool.
Loss assessment very important 1/3 costs is in loss so need to reduce these costs
Need to have these indices housed in a responsible authority WMO or NMHs
Trading of the systems:
Need long term indices – not just recent, but 100 years +
Paul Holper noted “The past is no longer a good guide to the future”
Examples of required indices
Hailstorm indices – hail is the highest cost
Indices hold the promise for risk management.
Climate change: quantification of business impacts by means of
catastrophe modeling leading to tailor made risk transfer solutions,
David Bresch, (SwissRe)
David Bresch provided an overview catastrophe modeling and its potential and uses for
financial risk transfer.
General rationale:
Weather-related insured natural catastrophe losses have increased steadily over the last
30 years. In the 1970s, mean annual losses amounted to approximately $US 2 - 3 bn,
while in recent years, the loss figure has increased to more than $US 30 bn (2007 price
levels). The year 2005 was marked by Hurricane Katrina, a storm claiming the highest
death toll (approximately 1’350) in the US since 1928 and generating the largest ever
insured loss – estimated at $US 45 bn – for the private insurance industry.
The insurance industry has coped well with years of unprecedented catastrophe losses.
This is proof of the industry's strong capital base and good risk management practice.
However, is it prepared for several catastrophic years in a row or even for a systematic
change due to e.g. global warming? From both a societal and an economic perspective,
it is vital to determine the extent to which climate variability and change can further add
to the loss figures.
Risk avoidance and mitigation strategies must be our first priority in managing extreme
weather risks subject to climate change, in line with the proverb: “an ounce of
prevention is worth a pound of cure”.
The financial and insurance markets can play a key role in preparing for the impact of
extreme natural events and we see significant value in shifting the traditional “disaster
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
relief” approach – providing support after the event – to an approach that allows the
accumulation of funds before a loss occurs. We can never obtain full resilience against
the effects of global warming, but we can manage many of its consequences if the
public and private sector work together in a true partnership.
Recent innovations in risk transfer solutions allow private corporations or governments
to go beyond the traditional insurance markets and directly tap into the vast resources
of the capital markets to protect against natural catastrophes. Further financial
instruments, such as weather derivatives, allow us to efficiently structure protection e.g.
against drought risk for smallholder farmers in emerging countries.
Integrative risk management (IRM) is an emerging concept aiming at concurrently
managing a portfolio of natural, technical, economical, and social risks for a specific
geographic region and/or event. It starts by identification and understanding risks,
leading to a comprehensive risk map and transfers this to an aggregated risk metrics.
This allows one to evaluate a mix of prevention, preparation, response, recovery, and
(financial) risk transfer actions, resulting in an optimal balance of public and private
contributions to risk management, aiming at a more resilient society.
The new chair for "Integrative Risk Management" at ETH Zurich will establish a worldleading, inspiring nucleus which develops, implements and disseminates knowledge and
tools for cross-risk measurement and aggregation, the selection of optimal portfolios of
risk-mitigation activities, and the design and evaluation of novel collaboration schemes
for networks of government, industry and private agents.
Selected key points:
 Comprehensive Mapping of risk is not so widespread yet – need this in place
before we can tackle the climate risk problem – very active area of development
 Catastrophe Modeling: Need to look for the unrealistic situations – as these
might not be unrealistic in the future, cannot just use the past events to look at
futures
 For the financial sector, decadal prediction is far more relevant than long-term
(say century).
 Need to think about the outputs from models, variables as close to cause of loss
as possible – gusts are better than mean winds, flood water level is better than
run off.
 Need easy access to data does not need to be free. Need global outputs.
 Global reanalysis is an easy way to get an excellent data set, if resolution is
sufficient (say 1/8 degree)
Key references:
The effects of climate change: Storm damage in Europe on the rise
This Swiss Re focus report summarises the results of a scientific study conducted jointly
by Swiss Re and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) to quantify the
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
impact of climate change on winter storm losses in Europe. Download:
http://www.swissre.com/resources/0e9e8a80455c7a86b1e4bb80a45d76a0Publ06_Klimaveraenderung_en.pdf
Natural catastrophes and reinsurance
This publication illustrates systems and methods used by re/insurers to analyse and
assess the risk arising from different natural hazards. Download:
http://www.swissre.com/resources/15a16b80462fc16c83aed3300190b89fNat_Cat_en.pdf
6.4
Catastrophe risk modeling. Peter Dailey (AIR)
Due to severe weather conditions at New York’s JFK airport, Peter Dailey was unable
to make his connection to Zurich, and thus could not attend the ACRE Workshop. He
did make his ppt presentation available.
6.5
Uses of reanalyses data for environmental assessments, Marcus
Erhard, (EEA)
Markus Erhard began his presentation with the following quote:
“The EEA aims to support sustainable development and to help achieve significant and
measurable improvement in Europe's environment through the provision of timely,
targeted, relevant and reliable information to policy making agents and the public.”
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Ecosystem services are the core business – the WISE system used as an example.
SIES and WMS/WCS
Core priorities and tools air – climate change, land use, nature and biodiversity,
water
No access to weather data
Shifting baselines for the core aspects.
What EEA needs is long term time series of data baseline for environmental
conditions in EU
Also needs to be mapped into regions within EU.
Shifting baselines are important
Availability of climate and weather data – 3 types of data, station, interpolated
climate data and weather data – have different characteristics in terms of spatial
and temporal resolution and ability to capture extremes and tends
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6.6
Meteorological data gap: don’t have the data at high temporal and spatial
resolution on the long term – not for several decades. Need high resolution
analysis
Need seamless data trans boundary including marine – and pan EU weather data
with web based services
Want long time series for trend detection of climate and weather including
extreme events
Need appropriate resolutions for regional assessments – can’t develop
adaptation strategies without this.
Precipitation is important – need the extremes and small scale convective scale.
Want access through SEIS infrastructure.
Need to get at the data policy issue.
Want NRT now, hindcasting and forecasting
European windstorms and reinsurance loss: New estimates of the
risk, Paul Della-Marta, (MeteoSwiss)
Paul Della-Marta provided the following overview
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Data is important, but there are competing and there are spatial and temporal
holes in model, in situ, and satellite data
Example of gusts and geostrophic winds – need to compare models
Tool of extreme value theory – statistical representation – what we observe –
does not capture everything
Different approach to use GCM data as a climate surrogate
Looked at EMULATE data – wind climate of EU based on geostrophy derived
from EMSLP data. 24 hour mean data – how can you identify and track storms –
can’t so took a scalar approach
1990s peaks – is the climate stationary? Looks okay
From a risk perspective how do you identify storms? Used a spatial area and
construct indices – look at maximum over threshold to get a distribution
Calculate return periods – when you use a longer data set get a reduced
uncertainty. Can constrain the data to improve return periods
SwissRe uses a probabilistic technique to generate synthetic storms based on
150 known extreme storms. Does this in a plausible manner and give a better
estimate of losses
New approach is to use ensemble prediction systems based on physics. So
generate storms based on pseudo climate
Lorenz attractor represents all trajectories for storms, ECMWF is one realisation.
Need to explore the space, so need ensembles
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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6.7
Use ECMWF in PreWiStoR project – in ensemble mode -> create a pseudo
climate to generate risk
Biases in ECMWF
European storminess, Uwe Ulbrich, (FUB)
Uwe Ulbrich’s presentation looked to give a specifically European perspective on
storminess
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6.8
Storms produce damage – need to combine data from damage with storminess
weather variables. – may be different factors to damage not just wind speed –
preconditioning
Property damage: Beaufort Scale Wind Speed (Bft) 8 > 98% wind speed at
stations in Germany – insurance pay out in this case
Look at >98% (percentile)
Wind storms are extensive in area
Look at extreme gusts: damage function needs to be established e.g. > u^3
exceedance
Can you do the same with reanalyses? Seems that you can. In terms of location
but what about correlation to damage?
Have a raw gridded damage measure that can be correlated. Based on insurance
industry data to do this. Loss ration (Cent.1KEuro)
ERA40 data are able to reproduce the situation – does not matter if you use
gusts or mean data – seems to work. Coarse resolution
Would it be better to use regional models driven by ECMWF?
Generally the regional systems do reproduce the insurers’ data. Slightly better
using gust data from ECMWF (slight). All regional models have wider spread –
because there is a divergence of data used at the regional scale
DWD forecast and analysis different from reanalysis - reanalysis smooths them
Can use NCEP data – gives approximately the same but it is a coarser resolution
Using climate change data: 20th century run of ECHAM5: Loss ratio in the next
100 years
Use of Lamb weather types and gale days based on intense directional and
cyclonic flow.
Historical ecology, Catherine Marzin, (NOAA NMSP)
Catherine Marzin outline work she has been doing with colleagues on historical marine
ecology in US waters, and the potential use of historical reanalyses in this work.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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6.9
Use of reanalysis data to help look at ecosystems as a proxy – historians,
statisticians and ecologists
What might marine life and species characteristics have looked like in the past?
NOAA fisheries connections
Log book analysis shows total collapse of fisheries in New England in 150 years –
catches went from 1.26M to 0.05M in 150 years
Logs are reliable as there is no incentive to lie – size of fish has changed (Cod)
whole idea of what is ‘normal’ is blown apart
National marine sanctuaries. – are there any safe healthy and productive
ecosystems left – a shifting perceptual baseline – we need to define what the
baseline is
We are happy today, if we see something today that would be outrageous 100
years ago. Hardly any regions in the world that are not affected
Need to understand the past through reanalysis to move into the future – many
management implications – is healthy pristine or not?
Use of qualitative sources photos
US statistical bulletins can be used to understand population dynamics of
fisheries and the effort concentration areas
Climate and ecological data are often found together in the historical record –
needs to be recovered. Recover the ecological data as well as the weather data
Coupling marine climatology and biology together. Cod are temperature
sensitive – some pattern?? Stelweggon bank – shift in relationship – was it
fishing? Climate? Did the bay change? Difficult to elucidate
Trying to partner with ICOADS.
GAO report on the Federal land and water resources are vulnerable to climate
change – but no tools are available to address the issue – we need to know what
is available and the associated uncertainties.
Science and economic question – is there something to be done?
Clear request for better resolution in the coastal zone
Agriculture, Tom Osborne (UoR)and Holger Meinke (WUR)
Tom Osborne introduced crop simulations models and discussed the limited use (todate) of reanalysis to drive them.
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Crop simulation models deterministic models 1D models on the water balance
for crop development and growth
Classic model water stress etc quite detailed
Rain humidity, light, temperature are required from reanalyses
Temporal and spatial requirements: develop models for crops at the field or plot
level – use experimental meteorological data
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Climate data are downscaled to provide local data
Few models at larger scales
New approach: statistical models show correlations – led to development of
GLAM model
Has to be relatively simple as you need to aggregate parameters at a large-scale
– process based but simple.
Temporal resolution: Daily data are used – timing of events can be crucial for end
of season yield. Use monthly means and weather generators are bolted on.
Experimental data show that high- temperatures episodes reduce yield of
several crops (rice, wheat, groundnut)
Also, the distribution of rainfall during the growing season is important for endof-season yield
Little work on crop simulation using reanalysus– one paper from Reading group
Strong climate signal on rainfall – applied bias corrections and there is
improvement in skill. Therefore, biases in reanalyses do limit skill.
Reanalysis data can fill observational gaps-
Holger Meinke discussed how biological simulation models can be used as bio-indicators
providing we have good, long-term climate records. Using an example (Potgieter et al.,
2005, Journal of Climate, 18: 1566-1574), he emphasized the following points:
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Adaptation and preparedness have emerged as THE biggest issues for a postKyoto world – not many know how to do it.
Converting the vagrancies of weather and climate into real options for risk
management is a long and treacherous task that requires science without
disciplinary dominance, good partnerships and lots of patients. It also requires
good simulation models.
The excellent SUPPLY of scientific information and insights will remain without
impact (diffuse and unfocused) in the absence of clear user DEMAND for climate
services. This is where modelling can help and add value (relevance) to climate
analyses.
Policy makers AND practitioners need access to relevant information for
informed discussions or debates.
We need to become more transdisciplinary and problem oriented in our
approaches to science – without disciplinary dominance.
The flipside of vulnerability assessments is the identification of adaptive capacity.
A model approach can help in this process.
We need good modelling tools for all sectors, not just climate
6.10 Trends and variability of storminess in the NE Atlantic-European
region, 1874-2007, Xiaolan L. Wang (EC)
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Xiaolan Wang gave a short impromptu presentation of some initial results from her
work with ISPD data.
 Storminess conditions in the NE Altantic region have undergone substantial
decadal or longer time scale fluctuations, with considerable seasonal and
regional differences.
 Winter storminess shows an unprecedented maximum in the early 1990s in the
North Sea area and a steady upward trend in the northeastern part of the region,
while summer storminess appears to have declined in most parts of the region
6.11 Water resources, Bryson Bates, (CSIRO)
Bryson Bates made a presentation on the water resources situation in Australia, and
how historical reanalyses could be used in long term evaluations of the situation.
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What have water resources got to do with ACRE?
If we get 5-10yr droughts there is no water
Australia is a young country and need records beyond 100 years length to look at
this
Clear that in the SW and in SE Australia the reliability of water systems is
fundamental – how frequently will they not have water and have we overallocated – yes
Looking at reanalyses – ACRE
Want a recent envelope of climate variability from 1870
What is happening to the atmospheric circulation that is leading to water
problems? – put anthropogenic climate change into context and are there
stochastic assessments of system reliability?
Looking at annual inflows of Perth 1911-2007, there are three regimes: wet
winters until 1975, then a drop until 1995, and another regime in 1995+
Perth is growing and there is an enormous amount of money spent on system
expansion. Desalination is costly $A1 billion!!
Traditional water planning assumes stationarity but these old rules of mean and
variance are breaking down with marked changes. Old ways don’t work. Are we
dealing with trends or shifts (how long is the stationarity period?) Do you use
the whole record or part of the record to plan?
Very sensitive – if you start to plan in 2007 you need vastly different planning
approaches compared to that using the whole record.
Looks like we are dealing with a long term trend rather than regimes – so this is
a real issue for planning
Downscaling model marked E-> W gradient in rainfall.
Use May – October 1958
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Planners are confronting an unprecedented drought – what is climate change
doing to do?
ACRE: provide additional information about earlier droughts
Seeing droughts worse than the worst climate change scenarios.
Q: What is the relationship between inflow and runoff?
Desalinisation plants: how much do they make? 45 giga litres a year moving to
150 giga litres a year
Q: what is the confidence in climate change scenarios? Some people are already
calling this climate change but we need better data
Q: How sensitive will the Markov model be to uncertainties? MSLP is a key
variable – moisture is important in greenhouse forcing – if you leave moisture
out in downscaling, you can get an opposite result from that in GCMs.
Water planners are confronted with historically-unprecedented drought, nonstationarity in dam inflow series and an apparent increase in climatic risk
due to anthropogenic climate change.
How can ACRE assist water planners?
By providing additional information about envelope of natural climate
variability – system reliability
By providing explanations for the causes of major droughts prior to middle
of 20th century
By putting anthropogenic climate change in context – if & when will the
envelope of natural climate variability be breached (approximately)?
6.12 Health impact data needs, Simon Lloyd, (LSHTM)
Simon Lloyd looked at what those working in the health impacts area can use from
climate scientists and historical reanalyses.
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Weather and climate are associated with a wide range of health outcomes, e.g.
deaths due to tropical cyclones , malaria, malnutrition.
For most, if not all, health outcomes only a proportion of the overall burden –
sometime a relatively small proportion - is due to weather or climate: need to
determine attributable burden.
Weather or climate as an ‘exposure’ can be characterized in a number of ways,
e.g. long term changes in means, inter-annual variability, extreme events.
Long term exposure data may be available, but obtaining a corresponding timeseries of high quality health and socioeconomic data is often not possible.
The weather/climate – health relationship is at times relatively straightforward
(e.g. deaths attributable to heat waves) but is often very complex (e.g.
malnutrition deaths)): modeling these relationships and acquiring necessary data
present considerable challenges.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Various study types provide different evidence of impacts: spatial studies (how
explanatory variables vary between areas), temporal studies (short- or long-term
changes in explanatory variable), or event studies (e.g. floods).
Weather and climate are population level exposures (c.f. smoking) and their
impact is moderated by population vulnerability: necessary to model and
account for this.
6.13 The impacts of spatial and temporal climate variability on plants via
phenology, Annette Menzel, (TUM)
Annette Menzel began her presentations by says that many natural systems on all
continents, and some oceans, are affected by regional climate change (rising
temperatures) . Of > 29,000 observational data series that show sign. change, more
than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to
warming. More than 28000 of these data series are from the European COST-725-Study
and are phenological observations. There is spatial agreement between regions of
significant warming across the globe and the locations of significant observed changes in
many systems. These changes are very unlikely to be due solely to natural variability of
temperatures or natural variability of the systems. End-to-end joint-attribution-model
studies comparing observed changes to modelled response show good agreement when
all forcings (A + N) are considered
Challenges, limitations and requirements:
• first to formally link observed global changes in physical and biological systems
to human induced climate change, predominantly from increasing greenhouse
gases.
• difficult to quantify the climate-impact link
• do not capture biological impact results from remote climate changes, seasonal
changes and temperature extremes
• limitations of available data (e.g. irregular sampling in space)
• short data series (1970-2004, >20 years)
• few end-to-end studies
• adequate spatial resolution, medium temporal resolution, long-term data
• easy, well documented, cheap access in user-friendly format
• Information about DEM
 Best data set to use is Jones et al data set - correlations between NAO and
phenology
 Urban heat island impacts
 Arrival of migratory birds
 Need documentation SWOT to help to apply historical reanalysis data
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
6.14 Extremes from the last centuries in France, Pascal Yiou, (LSCE)
Pascal Yiou thanked Rob Allan for inviting him to the workshop, and then introduced the
OPHELIE (Observations PHEnologiques pour reconstruire le CLImat de l’Europe) project
(http://geoarch.free.fr/spip.php?article20).
Project goals are:
• To catalogue early climatological and phenological data from across France
• To digitize original historical sources
• To model the response of phenological observations to climate variations
(harvests, dead trees…)
• To reconstruct past extreme climate events through their impacts on society or
the environment
• Pascal Yiou explained that France has a long history of bureaucracy and as result
of this has long historical records, for example, they have a phenological
database that extends from 1349 to 2007.
• Further examples were given of records available describing extreme climatic
events in France.
6.15 The history of climate impact on the built heritage, Carlota GrossiSampedro, (UEA)
Carlota Grossi-Sampredo noted that climate is a factor of increasing importance in the
weathering and management of buildings. Studies of the durability of building materials
are limited. Climate and pollution are major factors, for example, vulnerability to frost
and salt crystallization
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Produced a vulnerability atlas – frost and water phase changes make a big
impact
Use HadCM3 model data
Noah’s Ark project: HERITAGE CLIMATOLOGIES: transform traditional
meteorological parameters into those relevant to cultural heritage. See:
http://noahsark.isac.cnr.it
Salt crystallization – important factor for building stones – temperature and RH
>70% - sodium chloride liquification?
Land degradation – surface changes
Desire for cleaning the building
With an increase in pollution buildings go yellow – e.g. Tower of London
Corrosion of glass, factors include humidity, pollution, dust, micro organisms
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Looking at a salt climatology – type of stone, type of salt and type of climate –
how should we use the model data?
Deviations from data in certain specific regions (close to coast). No consistency
in the maritime regions
Need new models for future climate, good climate data in present and in the
past, scaling from broad areas to specific sites.
Want to use ENSEMBLES site
Paul Holper thanked everyone for their presentations and welcomed Gil Compo to the
chair.
6.16 Fire climate interactions on the American Pacific coast, Valerie
Trouet, (WSL)
Valerie Trouet explained that in the work she is involved in they are interested in the
relationships between climate and wildfire activity.
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They used fire scars to date the years in which trees were subjected to fires. As
result a fire regime reconstruction could be built.
Fire scars and tree rings- can use trees as a long-term record of baseline period
Because of fire suppression in the 20th century, fire-scar records end in the late
1800s, which hampers calibration, verification, and climatic analysis of the
records using instrumental data. Any climatic data set reaching back to before
1900, would be very useful for this purpose.
A sub-hemispheric circulation pattern of a strong trough over the North Pacific
and a ridge over the West Coast is characteristic of large fire years in all groups.
This pattern resembles the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection and
positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A reverse PNA and
negative PDO phase characterizes small fire years.
Despite the effect of fire suppression management between 1929 and 2004,
forest area burned is linked to climatic variations related to large-scale
atmospheric circulation patterns.
The PNA index only goes back to 1950, therefore there is a need for reanalysis
data.
Fire weather indices – measure of weather risk/ fire risk (not being able to
suppress the fire)
Haines index for fire risk
2.5 degree reanalysis gridded data were used for the development of a Haines
index climatology. Extending this data set back in time would allow for a better
analysis of low-frequency climatic effects.
Downscaling approach
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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Look at hemispheric patterns in high and low Haines index years
PNA pattern comes out clearly
Gil Compo commented on the short lead time from the PNA and summer fire weather.
Craig Donlon asked if they could use satellite imagery. Valerie Trouet said that it is useful
in the short term but the record only goes back 15 years.
7
Discussion of data needs
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Gill Compo: What can you work with in terms of resolution? We can do 2 degree
latitude by 2 degree longitude globally.
EEA needs regional analyses at 10-25km. Can you do regional nesting? Forests,
coastal and forests are small - .we need to go for resolution and data quality.
Need to handle the data appropriately. It can be a barrier to some users – need
to make it easy.
Bryson Bates: 2 degree latitude by 2 degree longitude globally resolution is fine –
need to have good quality data. Need daily, we would go for a nesting approach.
Want the broad circulation right
Phil Arkin: Centralised downscaling has been done one global and regional –
down to 30km took about the same amount of time – it’s a major effort.
Precipitation is important for applications – need to use model and observations
to develop the strengths of each data type.
Paul Della-Marta: Want integrated products if we can’t have 6 hourly data. Can
we have a daily maximum or surface wind gust. Especially for vulnerability
Craig Donlon: make sure that the users are served with proper assistance for
applying the data
Paul Della-Marta: need to have the details of the ensembles – rather than
resolution. Availability.
Craig Donlon: Need to generate trust in the community and ACRE can develop an
open mechanism to exchange commercial and scientific data sets and
experience
Thomas Klein: need to work with the reanalysis and the EEA
Malcolm Haylock: need to get higher resolution for the extremes (storms) – need
to open up the data access
Uwe Ulbrich: need more than the 6 hourly data, but we need the maximum data
and the extremes.
Rob Allan: ACRE is facilitating the users and the historical reanalyses that Gil
Compo’s team are developing – remember ACRE is the umbrella
Sakari Uppala: feedback is important
Catherine Marzin: need high resolution
Phil Jones: need to look to the present then look to the future
Marcus Erhard: What is the market? Who are the users?
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
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8
Albert Klein Tank: do the users need the raw output? Doubt this is the case.
Need to provide a suite of data for their applications – in many cases there is a
need for collaboration with the climate scientists. Real users need to find
partners in the climate change community
Antonio Corfino: models cannot do high resolution so there is a need to bridge
this gap. Classical interpolation + other methods
Markus Erhard: should focus on quality
Paul Della-Marta: we have focused on wind but we need other things too!!
Phil Arkin: there is a lag between the release of a product and the time it takes
for the community to learn how to work with the data. Through science based
R&D the data set will get validated – this in a process.
Martin Jukes: there is a pressure to get data sets out as soon as possible – this is
a modern way to work and this is different from the way we have been working
in the past.
Gil Compo: ACRE has the potential to put pressure on the other reanalyses to go
further back in time. ACRE could help ECMWF and NCEP could use the outputs
of ACRE to help develop finer detail based on MSLP and upper air data. These
kinds of discussions are necessary.
Dick Dee: agree with the comments of Gil but we need to be realistic – high
resolution and back in time as much as we can afford – the model only gets the
most out of the observations – less data worse outputs, need to be careful about
expectations.
Craig Donlon: need to set up an inter comparison framework to learn about
differences between the different reanalysis data sets
Rob Allan: ACRE funders are keen for a showcase of applications. One area to
look at would be the marine area of the Great Barrier Reef. Hans von Storch
wants to do something on storminess in the Baltic, and Catherine Marzin wants
to do something in US fisheries – Catherine Marzin: I’m keen to do something
useful in this regard.
Jim Carton: reanalysis from ocean and atmosphere will be available in 2009
Data rescue within ACRE could set standards for the digitization and in their own
archives.
Open Discussion
Craig Donlon welcomed everyone to the discussion session. Rob Allan gave another
overview of the ACRE project in order to refocus the workshop following all of the
presentations. He emphasized the fragility of most existing data rescue and digitization
projects and programs world-wide, and asked that everyone must take ownership and
help one another if ACRE is to be successful.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Craig Donlon stated that the work of ACRE needs to be taken forward as a community,
and that a set of activities must now be set.
It was agreed that there should be 4 ACRE working groups.
 Working group 1. Data Rescue (Rob Allan)
Possible terms of reference would be imaging and digitisation (perhaps a SETItype approach?). Best Practice, standards, etc.
 Working group 2. Downscaling (Antonio Confino)
Possible terms of reference would be guidance and best practice (statistics
versus dynamics), techniques and tools, promotion of applications to buildings,
fisheries etc.
 Working group 3. Verification and Validation (Gil Compo)
Possible terms of reference would be testing against independent data sources,
guidance on best practice, inter comparisons with other reanalyses and
reconstructions. Feedback on 20th Century Reanalysis Project (eventually moving
to SIRCA)
 Working group 4. User requirements and applications (Roger Stone)
Possible terms of reference would be to generate a user requirement document
in order to showcase applications eg, reinsurance, agriculture, marine
environment, terrestrial systems, cultural heritage, human health, climate
change.
Craig Donlon suggested that each Chair needs to develop their terms of reference and
start discussions with their group members. Establish some targets, deliverables and
what you plan to achieve. Capitalize on other meetings and ensure that ACRE is always
mentioned.
Gil Compo thanked Rob Allan for everything he had done to organise the project. Rob
Allan replied by thanking everyone who had presented and once again, the Swiss GCOS
Office, MeteoSwiss, and all of the funding bodies.
The meeting ended at 12:25.
Next meeting location and dates
The next ACRE Workshop is planned to be held at O’Reilly’s Rainforest Retreat at
Lamington National Park, Queensland, Australia from the 1st-3rd April, 2009.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Action list resulting from 1st ACRE workshop discussion
workshop
The following actions were reviewed and agreed in plenary by the workshop
delegates
Number
A-1.1
A-1.2
A-1.3
A-1.4
A-1.5
A-1.6
A-1.7
A-1.8
A-1.9
A-1.10
A-1.11
Action
ACRE to contact ECSN to discuss the needs of
ACRE and to explore how to work well with
ECSN
ACRE to request guidance and information
on data policy Action
ACRE to contact GEO/GEOSS to make them
aware of the activity and link to a GEO task
sheet
ACRE to explore the possibility of making a
presentation at the ECSN management
meeting
ACRE should establish which Intergovernmental teams (e.g. WMO CaGM, CCl,
ET2.2, ETCCDI, GCOS focal points, WMO/IOC
JCOMM etc.) are (a) relevant to ACRE and (b)
could assist ACRE
ACRE to set up a web page on the ACRE site
to promote data rescue and expose the use
of their data, applications etc.
A list of GCOS Permanent Representatives to
Rob Allan with an explanation of proper
process regarding collaboration for data
access and rescue.
A summary of the problems with lack of
MSLP data in the early part of the record to
be sent to WMO Etienne Charpantier with a
request for help
An inventory of data used/available etc will
be developed (Russ Vose NCDC) and put on
the ACRE web site to complement that
already provided by Rob Allan
All to have a look at the ACRE web site and
pass feedback and suggestions on
improvements
(Gil Compo) ACRE web site to include a
Owner
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Phil Jones
Gil Compo
Russ Vose
Everyone
Gil Compo
Date
Due
Status
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
A-1.12
A-1.13
A-1.14
A-1.15
A-1.16
A-1.17
A-1.18
A-1.19
A-1.20
A-1.21
A-1.22
A-1.23
Wiki/interactive blog?/communications
tool/diary to enable on-line discussion of
major issues.
NCDC can check the possibility of archiving
digital images of logbooks etc. and link to
Action 13
Rob to put up a page on the ACRE web site
that will explain what needs to be done for
digitisation and how people can get involved.
The page could explore a 'SETI' type
community approach to community
digitisation which would require a web
interface and guidance on how to digitize
data (FAQ or more detailed). Promote the
Google Earth successes of Brohan et al
(visual seduction…), identify the needs
(Remarks books etc)
ACRE web site to include guidance on how to
do data rescue – link to MEDARE project –
FAQ and perhaps more – how to do this and
what is best practice (how should this be
done?). IMMA format?, verification?
Validation? Tools? Problems and pitfalls?
Successes?
Saki Uppala to explore early archives at
WMO (check with Saki)
Explore if a student could be deployed to try
and help digitise the UKHO/US NOAA Central
Library Remarks Books
Stephan Bronniman has a web interface and
19 students to digitize data which could be
used as a model system for ACRE. ACRE to
explore how this system could be (a)
promoted and (b) be used as a baseline
system for further international STI Data
Rescue activities
Rob Allan to provide a list of monthly
pressure data station list of the world for
HadSLP and put on ACRE web pages
Make contact with the Global Vegetation
Modelling community. Applications, use of
the model inter-comparison etc
Link to FEAST, QERCI EU- Australia projects
ACRE to reach out and ensure good
connection with the people who are doing
the raw data recovery
Have a target for data recovery as a
countdown - % done bar on the web site –
church appeal style
Working group chairs to develop Terms of
Reference and plan of work with some
Rob Allan
Russ Vose
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Sakari Uppala
Roger Stone
Stehan
Bronniman
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Markus Erhard
Roger Stone
Roger Stone
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Rob Allan,
Antonio Confino,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
deliverables
A-1.24
A-1.25
A-1.26
A-1.27
A-1.28
A-1.29
A-1.30
A-1.31
ACRE top seek advice on how best to work
with the reinsurance industry (Bermuda)
Work towards a WMO article
Publish a formal pdf report of the meeting to
help future funding of ACRE activities
Explore an ACRE.org web site including
oceans etc.
Set up some top level (i.e. limited updates if
any required) multi lingual web pages (Albert
Klein-Tank-Dutch, Carlotta Grossi-Spanish,
Xiaolan Wang-Chinese, Stefan BronnimannGerman, Sylvie Jourdain-French)
ALL to advocate ACRE at national and
international conferences, workshops etc.
To explore convening a session on ACRE at
EGU
To provide guidance on bringing the WG
outputs together at the end of ACRE – top
level objectives etc
Gil Compo, Roger
Stone
Rob Allan, Jan
Klein
Rob Allan,
Xiaolan Wang
Rob Allan,
Catharine Ward
Rob Allan
Rob Allan
Everyone
Martin Juckes
Rob Allan
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Appendix I: Agenda for the 1st ACRE Workshop
ACRE Workshop:
Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses & Climate
Applications,
MeteoSwiss, Zurich, 23rd-25th June 2008
Day 1 – 23rd June
8.30
Registration
9.00
MeteoSwiss Welcome – Seiz + ACRE workshop introduction, overview and
aims - Allan (MO)
Reanalysis approaches (Chair: Jones)
9.20
ECMWF reanalysis: present and future – Uppala (ECMWF)
9.40
Upper air data and reconstructions into the early 20th century –
Bronnimann/Grant (ETH)
10.10
Morning Tea
10.40
US Reanalyses – Arkin (ESSIC)
11.00
SST reanalysis within the GHRSST-PP - Casey (NOAA, NODC), Donlon (MO)
11.30
SODA ocean reanalysis - Carton (UMD)
11.50
20th Century Reanalysis Project & Historical reanalyses – Compo (NOAA ESRL
& CIRES)
12.10
Lunch
Historical Reanalyses data (Chair: Stone)
13.00
Europe and Northern Hemisphere – Jones (CRU)
13.20
Blending station pressure data and ship logbooks – Kuettel (UBERN)
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
13.40
An application of the 250 year blended ship log book and station SLP set:
Influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on Mediterranean
temperature and precipitation - Luterbacher (UBERN)
14.00
Assimilation on climatic timescales: Application to the ‘Little Ice Age’? – Klein
Tank (KNMI)
14.30
14.50
Overview of Météo-France data rescue in connection with ACRE and related
projects - Jourdain (Météo-France)
RECLAIM and ICOADS – Woodruff (NOAA/OAR/ESRL)
15.10
Afternoon Tea
15.30
GCOS AOPC/OOPC Working Group on Observational Datasets for Reanalysis Vose (NCDC)
Distribution and downscaling of reanalyses products (Chair: DellaMarta)
15.50
Showcase EUROGRID Towards a European resource for high-resolution
gridded climate data & products – Klein (SMHI)
16.10
BADC web portal experiences - Juckes (MO/BADC)
16.30
CAWCR web portal & climate scenarios – Holper (CSIRO/CAWCR)
16.50
Model downscaling for storm surges – Howard (MO)
17.10
ENSEMBLES statistical downscaling portal - Cofino (University of Cantabria)
17.30
Discussion
18.10
Finish
Day 2 – 24th June
Climate applications and outreach (Chairs: Holper & Compo)
8.45
Overview of MeteoSwiss climate services: seasonal forecasting to climate
applications and research – Appenzeller (MeteoSwiss)
9.00
Prospects for and value of long-time series data, including global reanalysis
data sets, in the development of global climate derivatives with special
application to the agricultural sector – Stone (USQ)
9.20
Climate change: quantification of business impacts by means of catastrophe
modelling leading to tailor made risk transfer solutions - Bresch (SwissRe)
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
9.40
Catastrophe risk modelling – Dailey (AIR)
10.00
Uses of reanalyses data for environmental assessments – Erhard (EEA)
10.20
Morning Tea
10.50
European windstorms and reinsurance loss: New estimates of the risk - DellaMarta (MeteoSwiss)
11.10
European storminess – Ulbrich (FUB)
11.30
Historical ecology – Marzin (NOAA NMSP)
11.50
Agriculture – Meinke (WU), Osborne (Walker Institute)
12.10
Lunch
13.20
Water resources – Bates (CSIRO)
13.40
Health impact data needs – Lloyd (LSHTM)
14.00
The impacts of spatial and temporal climate variability on plants via
phenology – Menzel (TUM)
14.20
Extremes from the last centuries in France - Yiou (LSCE)
14.40
The history of climate impact on the built heritage – Grossi-Sampedro (UEA)
15.00
Afternoon Tea
15.30
Fire climate interactions on the American Pacific Coast – Trouet (WSL)
15.50
Discussion
17.30
Finish
20.00
Dinner: Restaurant Fischstube Zürichhorn (http://www.fischstube.ch/).
Day 3 – 25th June
9.00 –
13.00
Discussion themes (Chairs: Stone/Donlon)
1. Driving biophysical models with historical 3D reanalyses weather and
climate products
2. Using historical 3D reanalyses products as a baseline to develop global
climatic indices
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
3. Historical 3D reanalyses products as a benchmark for sustainability
accounting
4.
User feedback on downscaled or tailored reanalyses products
5. Publication of workshop discussions and results
10.3011.00
Morning Tea
13.00
Lunch
14.00
Finish
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Appendix II: Participant contact details.
(Those funded by PartnerRe are highlighted in red)
US & Canadian Participants
Dr. Phillip Arkin,
Director, Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS),
Deputy Director, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC),
Suite 4001, M-Square Office Building #950,
5825 University Research Court,
University of Maryland,
College Park, MD 20740,
USA.
Ph: (301) 405-2147
Fax: (301) 405-8468
parkin@essic.umd.edu
John W. Buchanan, FCAS, MAAA
Senior Vice President,
Platinum Underwriters Reinsurance, Inc.,
2 World Financial Center NYC, NY 10281,,
USA.
Ph: 212-238-9639
Fax: 212-238-9251
e-Fax: 212-238-9537
JBuchanan@PlatinumRe.com
Professor James Carton,
University of Maryland,
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,
Room 3413 Computer and Space Science Building -- West wing,
Stadium Drive,
College Park, MD 20742-0001,
USA
Ph: (301)-405-5391
carton@atmos.umd.edu
Dr Kenneth S. Casey,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center,
1315 East-West Highway,
Silver Spring MD 20910,
USA.
Ph: 301-713-3272 ext 133
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/SatelliteData
Dr Gil Compo,
Research Scientist,
CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center,
University of Colorado,
NOAA Physical Sciences Division,
Earth System Research Laboratory,
325 Broadway R/PSD1,
Boulder, CO 80305-3328,
USA.
Ph: (303) 497-6115
Fax: (303) 497-6449
compo@colorado.edu
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbert.p.compo
Dr Peter S. Dailey*,
Director of Research in Atmospheric Science,
AIR Worldwide Corporation ,
131 Dartmouth Street,
Boston, MA 02116-5134,
USA.
Switchboard (617) 267-6645
Ph: (617) 954-1785
Fax (617) 267-8284
pdailey@air-worldwide.com
* Due to severe weather conditions at
New York’s JFK airport, Peter Dailey was
unable to make his connection to Zurich,
and thus could not attend the ACRE Workshop.
He did make his ppt presentation available.
Dr Catherine Marzin,
National Partnership Coordinator,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
NOAA National Marine Sanctuary Program,
1305 East West Highway,
Sliver Springs,
Maryland 20910,
USA.
Ph: (301) 713-3125 x257
Fax: (301) 713 0404
Catherine.Marzin@noaa.gov
http://www.sanctuaries.noaa.gov/
Dr Russell S. Vose,
Chief,
Climate Analysis Branch,
National Climatic Data Center,
151 Patton Avenue,
Asheville, North Carolina 28801,
USA.
Ph: (828) 271-4311
Fax: (828) 271-4328
Russell.Vose@noaa.gov
Dr Xiaolan Wang
Research Scientist,
Climate Research Division,
ASTD, STB, Environment Canada,
4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto,
Ontario, M3H 5T4,
CANADA.
Adjunct Professor & FGS member,
Department of Mathematics & Statistics,
York University,
|4700 Keele Street, Toronto,
Ontario, M3J 1P3,
CANADA..
Ph.: 416 739 4115
Fax: 416 739 5700
Xiaolan.Wang@ec.gc.ca
http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/wang_e.cfm
Dr Scott Woodruff,
NOAA Earth System Research,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Laboratory (R/PSD3),
325 Broadway,
Boulder, CO 80305,
USA
Ph: +1 303-497-6747
Fax: +1 303-497-6181
Scott.D.Woodruff@noaa.gov
http://icoads.noaa.gov/
European Participants
Dr Rob Allan,
ACRE Project Manager,
Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group,
Met Office Hadley Centre,
FitzRoy Road,
Exeter,
EX1 3PB
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 (0)1392 886904
Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
rob.allan@metoffice.gov.uk
allarob@googlemail.com
Dr. Christof Appenzeller,
Head,
Climate Services,
Climate Division,
MeteoSchweiz,
Krähbühlstr. 58,
CH-8044 Zürich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 (0) 44 256 93 88
Ph2: +41 (0) 44 256 91 11
Fax: +41 (0) 44 256 92 78
christof.appenzeller@meteoswiss.ch
http://www.meteoschweiz.ch
Dr. David N. Bresch,
Director,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Head Atmospheric Perils & Head University Relations
Swiss Reinsurance Company,
Mythenquai 50/60,
8022 Zurich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 43 285 6361
Fax:+41 43 282 6361
David_Bresch@swissre.com
http://www.swissre.com/
Prof. Stefan Brönnimann,
Institut fur Atmosphäre und Klima,
ETH-Zentrum,
CHN M 11,
Universitätstrasse 16,
8092 Zürich,
SWITZERLAND,
Ph: +41 44 632 82 27
stefan.broennimann@env.ethz.ch
http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/stefanbr
Dr Antonio S. Cofiño,
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences,
University of Cantabria,
SPAIN.
antonio.cofino@unican.es
Dr Pascale Delacluse
Meteo-France,
Directeur Adjoint de la Recherche,
CNRM 2 avenue Rapp,
75340 Paris Cedex 07,
France.
Ph : 01 45 56 73 21
Fax : 01 45 56 73 30
Mob : 06 85 31 93 55
Pascale.Delecluse@meteo.fr
Dr Dick Dee.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
ECMWF,
Shinfield Park.
Reading Berks RG2 9AX,
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 (0)118 949 9352
dick.dee@ecmwf.int.
Dr Paul Della-Marta,
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow,
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology
MeteoSwiss Climate Services,
Kraehbuehlstrasse 58,
Postfach 514,
CH-8044 Zuerich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 44 256 92 03
Fax: +41 44 256 92 78
paul.della-marta@meteoswiss.ch
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/de/forschung/projekte/nccr_ii.html
Dr Craig Donlon*
Director of the International Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) Project Office,
Met Office Hadley Centre,
Fitzroy Road,
Exeter, EX1 3PB
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 (0)1392 886622
Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
Mob: 07920 235750
craig.donlon@gmail.com
http://www.ghrsst-pp.org/
*
As of 1st September 2008:
Principle Scientist for Oceanography,
Mission Science Division of Earth Observation Programmes,
European Space Agency/ESTEC,
THE NETHERLANDS.
Dr Markus Erhard,
Project Manager Environmental Accounting,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
European Environment Agency,
Kongens Nytorv 6,
1050 Copenhagen K,
DENMARK.
Ph: +45 3336 7220
Fax :+45 3336 7199
markus.erhard@eea.europa.eu
http://www.eea.europa.eu/
Dr Andrea Grant,
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
ETH Zurich,
Universitaetstr. 16,
8092 Zurich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41-44-632-79-75
andrea.grant@env.ethz.ch
Dr Carlota Grossi-Sampredo,
School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia,
Norwich NR4 7TJ,
UNITED KINGDOM
Ph: +44 (0)1603 59 2318
c.grossi-sampedro@uea.ac.uk
Dr Malcolm Haylock.
PartnerRe,
Bellerivestrasse 36.
CH-8034 Zurich.
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 44 385 3696.
Fax: +41 44 385 3407.
malcolm.haylock@partnerre
Dr Tom Howard,
Climate, Cryosphere and Oceans team,
Met Office Hadley Centre,
FitzRoy Road,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Exeter,
EX1 3PB,
UNITED KINGDOM
Ph: +44 (0)1392 886 678
tom.howard@metoffice.gov.uk
Dr Sylvie Jourdain,
Météo-France,
Direction de la Climatologie,
Toulouse,
FRANCE.
Ph : +33 5 61 07 83 84
sylvie.jourdain@meteo.fr
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit,
School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia,
Norwich,
NR4 7TJ
UNITED KINGDOM
Ph: +44 (0) 1603 592090
Fax : +44 (0) 1603 507784
p.jones@uea.ac.uk
Dr Martin Juckes,
The British Atmospheric Data Centre,
Space Science and Technology Department,
R25 - Room 1.118,
CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,
Fermi Avenue,
Chilton, near Didcot,
Oxfordshire,
OX11 0QX,
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 1235 44 51 24
Fax: +44 1235 44 58 48
M.N.Juckes@rl.ac.uk
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Dr Thomas Klein
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
SE-601 76 Norrköping,
SWEDEN.
Ph:. +46-31-7518902
Thomas.Klein@smhi.se
Dr. Jan Kleinn,
Head of Research and Development,
Catastrophe Risk Management,
Aspen Insurance UK Ltd.,
Zweigniederlassung Zurich
Bahnhofstrasse 52
CH-8001 Zurich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 44 213 61 11
Fax: +41 44 214 65 19
Mob: +41 79 402 21 39
jan.kleinn@aspen-re.com
http://www.aspen-re.com/
Marcel Kuettel,
PhD student,
Climatology and Meteorology Research Group,
Institute of Geography,
University of Bern,
Hallerstrasse 12,
3012 Bern,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 (0)31 631 85 42
kuettel@giub.unibe.ch
http://www.giub.unibe.ch/~kuettel
Dr René Kunz,
Head Agriculture,
SCOR Global P&C,
Obergasse 19,
CH-8400 Winterthur,
Zurich,
SWITZERLAND.
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Ph: +41 (52) 264 00 47
Fax: +41 (52) 264 00 50
rkunz@scor.com
http://www.scor.com/
Simon Lloyd,
Research Assistant,
Public and Environmental Health Research Unit,
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine,
Keppel Street,
London, WC1E 7HT,
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 (0)20 7958 8268
simon.lloyd@lshtm.ac.uk
PD Dr Juerg Luterbacher,
University of Bern
Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology and Oeschger Centre for Climate
Change Research (OCCR)
Hallerstrasse 12
CH - 3012 Bern,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 (0)31 631 85 45
Fax: +41 (0)31 631 85 11
juerg@giub.unibe.ch
Dr Alexia C. Massacand,
GEO Work Plan Coordinator,
Group on Earth Observations (GEO),
7, bis avenue de la Paix,
Case Postale 2300,
CH-1211 Geneva 2,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: + 41 22 730 8382
Fax: + 41 22 730 8520
amassacand@geosec.org
http://www.earthobservations.org
Prof. Holger Meinke,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Head,
Crop and Weed Ecology,
Department of Plant Sciences,
Wageningen University,
P.O. Box 430,
NL 6700 AK Wageningen,
THE NETHERLANDS.
Ph:
+31 3174 84772
Mob: +31 6131 76077
holger.meinke@wur.nl
http://www.cwe.wur.nl/UK/
Prof. Dr. Annette Menzel,
Fachgebiet für Ökoklimatologie, TUM,
Am Hochanger 13,
D- 85354 Freising,
GERMANY.
Ph. +49 8161 714740
Fax. +49 8161 714753
menzel@forst.tu-muenchen.de
Dr Tom Osborne,
Walker Institute,
NCAS – Climate,
Room 3L60,
Department of Meteorology,
University of Reading,
Earley Gate,
Reading RG6 6BB,,
UNITED KINGDOM.
Ph: +44 (0)118 378 6016
Fax: +44 (0)118 378 8316
t.m.osborne@reading.ac.uk
http://www.walker-institute.ac.uk
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swr01tmo
Dr. Gabriela Seiz,
Climate Division, Swiss GCOS Office,
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA,
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
MeteoSwiss,
Kraehbuehlstrasse 58, P.O. Box 514, CH-8044 Zurich,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 44 256 95 39
Fax: +41 44 256 92 78
gabriela.seiz@meteoswiss.ch
http://www.meteoswiss.ch
Dr. Albert M.G. Klein Tank,
Climate Research and Seismology,
Climate Services Division,
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI),
De Bilt,
THE NETHERLANDS.
Ph: +31 (0)30 2206 872
Fax: +31 (0)30 2210 407
Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl
Dr. Valerie Trouet,
Dendro Sciences Research Unit,
Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape WSL,
8903 Birmensdorf,
SWITZERLAND.
Ph: +41 44 7392 680
Fax: +41 44 7392 215
trouet@wsl.ch
Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich,
Institut fuer Meteorologie,
Freie Universitaet Berlin,
Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10,
12165 Berlin,
GERMANY.
Ph: +49 (0)30 838 71186
Fax: +49 (0)30 838 71128
ulbrich@met.fu-berlin.de
Dr Sakari Uppala,
Head of Reanalysis Section,
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Research Department,
ECMWF,
Shinfield Park, Reading,
Berkshire, RG2 9AX,
UNITED KINGDOM
Ph: +44 118 949 9366
Fax: +44 118 986 9450
sakari.uppala@ecmwf.int
Dr. Pascal Yiou,
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
UMR CEA-CNRS 1572,
CE Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, bat. 701,
91191 Gif-sur-Yvette,
FRANCE
Ph: +33 (0)169087728
Fax: +33 (0)169087716
Mob: +33 (0)674023557
pascal.yiou@cea.fr
Ms. Catherine Ward
ACRE project researcher,
Met Office Hadley Centre,
FitzRoy Road,
Exeter,
EX1 3PB
UNITED KINGDOM
Mob: 07985118668
catharinesi@aol.com
Other Participants
Dr Bryson C Bates,
Climate Science Leader, WA,
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Private Bag No. 5,
Wembley WA 6913,
AUSTRALIA
Ph: + 61 (0)8 9333 6554
Fax: + 61 (0)8 9333 6505
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Mob: + 61 (0)448 870 002
Bryson.Bates@csiro.au
Mr Paul Holper,
Manager, CSIRO, Australian Climate Change Science Program,
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Aspendale, Victoria,
AUSTRALIA
Ph: +61 3 9239 4661
Fax: +61 3 9239 4444
Mob: +61 407 394 661
paul.holper@csiro.au
Prof. Roger Stone
Professor in Climatology and Water Resources,
Director Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments,
University of Southern Queensland,
Toowoomba,
AUSTRALIA.
Ph: +61 746 312736
Mob: +61 437 349168
stone@usq.edu.au
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
Appendix III: Acronyms and WWW pages
AATSR - Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer
http://www.leos.le.ac.uk/AATSR/
ACCESS - Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator
http://www.accessimulator.org.au/
AOPC - Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (part of GCOS)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=aopc
AR4 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
ATSR - Along Track Scanning Radiometer
http://www.atsr.rl.ac.uk/
AVHRR - Advanced Very High-resolution Radiometer
http://noaasis.noaa.gov/NOAASIS/ml/avhrr.html
BADC - British Atmospheric Data Centre
http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/home/index.html
BALTEX: Baltic Sea Experiment
http://www.baltex-research.eu/
BoM - Australian Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/
Bft = Beaufort Scale Wind Speed
CAWCR - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/
CCA - Canonical Correlation Analysis
CDMP - Climate Database Modernization Program
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/cdmp/cdmp.html
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
CERA_MPI-ECHAM5 – ACC experiments from MPI using ECHAM5
http://cera-www.dkrz.de/
CFSRR - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Forecast system
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
CGCM3 - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global
Climate Model
CIRCE – Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (ECfunded project)
http://www.circeproject.eu/
CLIRUN - Climate Information: Responding to User Needs
http://climateneeds.umd.edu/
CLIWOC - Climate of the world’s oceans (EU-project)
http://www.ucm.es/info/cliwoc/
http://www.knmi.nl/cliwoc/
CNRM-CM3 – the third version of the global coupled system ocean-atmosphere model
initially developed at CERFACS (Toulouse, France)
http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/scenario2004/references_eng.html
COST - European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research
http://www.cost.esf.org/
CSIRO - Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
http://www.csiro.au/
CTD- Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth
DARE - Data Rescue
DCLIM – Department of Climatology. Meteo-France
DEMETER - Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to
interannual prediction http://www.istworld.org/ProjectDetails.aspx?ProjectId=6f789d67f38146209e86fd64d37fafe6
DWD - Deutscher Wetterdienst
http://www.dwd.de/
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
ECA&D - European Climate Assessment & Dataset
http://eca.knmi.nl/
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
http://www.ecmwf.int/
ECSN - European Climate Support Network (of EUMETNET)
http://www.eumetnet.eu.org/ECSN_home.htm
ECVs: Essential Climate Variables (defined by GCOS)
EEA - European Environment Agency
http://www.eea.europa.eu/
EEIC - English East India Company
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honourable_East_India_Company
EMSLP - EMULATE Mean Sea Level Pressure data set
EMULATE - European and North Atlantic daily to MULtidecadal climATE variability (EU
project) http://hadobs.metoffice.com/emslp/
ENSEMBLES - ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (EUproject) http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/
ENSO - El Niňo Southern Oscillation
ERA-15: An ECMWF reanalysis for the period from December 1978 to February 1994
ERA-40: An ECMWF reanalysis for the period from September 1957 to August 2002
ERAMESAN - Meso-scale Re-analysis of Precipitation, Temperature and Wind over
Europe
ESM - Earth Systems Model
ESRL - Earth System Research Laboratory (USA)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
ETCCDI - Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices
http://www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi/etccdi.php
ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
http://www.ethz.ch/
EUROGRID - A European resource for gridded climate data and products
http://www.e-grid.eu/public/
EURRA - European Regional Reanalysis project
GAO - U.S. Government Accountability Office
http://www.gao.gov/
GAS - GMES Atmospheric Service
GCOS - Global Climate Observing System
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php
GCOS/WCRP WG–ODR - GCOS/WCRP Working Group on Observational Data Sets for
Reanalysis
GCOS AOPC/OOPC WG-SP – GCOS AOPC/OOPC Working Group on Surface Pressure
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Pressure/
GEMS - Global and regional Earth-system (Atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and in
situ data
http://www.esa.int/esaLP/LPgmes.html http://gems.ecmwf.int/about.jsp
GEO - Group on Earth Observations
http://www.earthobservations.org/
GEOSS - Global Earth Observations System of Systems
http://www.epa.gov/geoss/
GMES - Global Monitoring for Environment and Security
http://www.gmes.info/
GHRSST – The Global High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature
http://www.ghrsst-pp.org/
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
GHRSST LTSRF - Long Term Stewardship and Reanalysis Facility
http://ghrsst.nodc.noaa.gov/
GODAE - Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
http://www.godae.org/
GSN - GCOS Surface Network
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/hofn/gsn/gsn-home.html
HadISST - Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set
http://www.hadobs.org/
HadSST - Hadley Centre Global Sea Surface Temperature data set
http://www.hadobs.org/
ICOADS - International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set
http://icoads.noaa.gov/
ICSU - International Council for Science
http://www.icsu.org/index.php
IGRA - Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/igra/index.php
INSPIRE - INfrastructure for SPatial InfoRmation in Europe (EU initiative)
http://www.ec-gis.org/inspire/
IOC - Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
http://ioc-unesco.org/
IPY - International Polar Year
http://classic.ipy.org/about/
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch/
IRM - Integrative risk management
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
ISD - Integrated Surface Data Set
ISPD - International Surface Pressure Data Bank
JCOMM - Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology
http://www.jcomm.info/
JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
JRA-25 - Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project
http://www.jreap.org/indexe.html
KNMI - Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute)
http://www.knmi.nl/
MEDARE - MEditerranean climate DAta Rescue
http://www.omm.urv.cat/MEDARE/index.html
MedCLIVAR - Mediterranean CLIVAR (ESF-funded)
http://www.medclivar.eu/
MERRA - Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications
http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/
MODIS - Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/
MPI-ECHAM5 – Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 5th generation of the ECHAM
general circulation model
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam.html
MSLP - Mean Sea Level Pressure
NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
http://www.nasa.gov/
NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Co, USA)
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/
NCDC - National Climatic Data Center (Asheville, NC, USA)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
NCEP - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (USA)
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/
NERC: Natural Environmental Research Council (UK)
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/
NMS - National Meteorological Service
NOAA - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (USA)
http://www.noaa.gov/
NOC – National Oceanography Centre, Southampton
http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation
NSF – National Science Foundation
http://www.nsf.gov/
NWP - Numerical Weather Prediction
OI - Optimum Interpolation
OOPC - Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/index.php
OPHELIE - Observations PHEnologiques pour reconstruire le CLImat de l’Europe
http://geoarch.free.fr/spip.php?article20
PCMDI – Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/
PNA - Pacific North American teleconnection
PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
PreWiStoR - Prediction of Winter Storm Risk
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/en/research/projects/nccr_ii/prewistor.html
PRUDENCE - Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European
climate change risks and effects (EU-project)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/html/prudence.html
QCCCE - Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/response/about_qccce.html
RCM – Regional Climate Model
RECLAIM – RECovery of Logbooks And International Marine data (RECLAIM) Project
http://icoads.noaa.gov/reclaim/
SAT – Surface Air Temperature
S2D – Seasonal to Decadal: ENSEMBLES s2d multimodel-system based on the
experiences of DEMETER and the operational multi-model seasonal forecast system
(EUROSIP)
SHD - Satellite Heritage Diagram
SIES SIRCA - Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications
SLP – Sea Level Pressure
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
SRM - Royal Society of Medicine
SSM/I - Special Sensor Microwave Imager
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSMI
SST - Sea Surface Temperature
TNA – The National Archives of the United Kingdom
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/
Report of the 1st ACRE Workshop: Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications
UKCIP - UK Climate Impacts Programme
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/
UKHO – United Kingdom Hydrographic Office
http://www.ukho.gov.uk/
UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme
http://www.unep.org/
UNESCO - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
http://portal.unesco.org/
WCRP - World Climate Research Programme
http://wcrp.wmo.int/wcrp-index.html
WIS –
WISE - Workbench for Interactive Simulation of Ecosystems
http://fedwww.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/Wise.paper.html
WMO - World Meteorological Organization
http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html
WMS/WCS - Web Map Service/Web Coverage Service
XBT – Expendable bathythermograph