Atmospheric Reanalyses Update Mike Bosilovich Summary of the main atmospheric reanalyses that are current or underway, with the horizontal resolution (latitude; T159 is equivalent to about 0.8 ), the starting and ending dates, the approximate vintage of the model and analysis system, and current status. Reanalysis Horiz.Res Dates Vintage Status NCEP/NCAR R1 T62 1948-present 1995 ongoing NCEP-DOE R2 T62 1979-present 2001 ongoing CFSR (NCEP) T382=0.5 1979-present 2010 thru 2009, ongoing 20CR (ESRL) 2 1891-2008 2010 Complete, in progress ERA-40 T159 1957-2002 2004 done ERA-Interim T255 1989-present 2009 ongoing JRA-25 T106 1979-present 2006 ongoing JRA-55 T319 1958-2012 2010+ In Preparation 1979-present 2009 thru 2009, ongoing MERRA (NASA) 0.5 Atmospheric Reanalyses • Four new global reanalyses available recently – CFSR (NCEP), ERA Interim (ECMWF), 20CR (NOAA ESRL), MERRA (NASA) – JRA55 in preparation – Resolutions, systems and data QC improving • Several Regional Reanalyses under development • Issues: – Proliferation or unique contributions? – Direction and organization (save till 7.6) NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR) • Resolution: T382 (~38Km, 64 levels to .26 hPa) • Duration: 1979-present • Objectives: Reforecasts, Climate for forecast statistics, Operational climate products • Includes coupled ocean and land data assimilation • WWW: http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/ ECMWF ERA Interim • Resolution: T255 • Duration: 1989-present • Objectives – A checkpoint to the next generation, weather statistics but also climate monitoring • ERA-Interim compared to ERA-40 – 12 hour 4D-Var – Better formulation of background error constraint, New humidity analysis, Improved model physics – Data quality control that draws on experience from ERA-40 and JRA-25 – Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data, and other improvements in bias handling – More extensive use of radiances • http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/era-interim NASA/GMAO – Modern Era Retrospectiveanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) • Resolution: ½° lat × ⅔° lon, 72 levels (0.01 hPa) • Duration: 1979-present • Objectives: Improve on the representation of water and energy budgets; Put new and research satellite data into a climate context; provide the base for coupled analyses – Also designed to support Chemistry Transport Modeling community – Collaboration with NCEP on conventional observations and GSI Analysis, Haimberger sonde corrections, Intercalibrated MSU channels • http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/merra/ NOAA/ESRL 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) • Resolution T62 (28 levels, 56 Ens. Members) • Duration: 1871-2008 (Version 2) • Objectives: Using ensemble spread and surface pressure assimilation, analyze climate over the 20th century • Uncertainty estimates for states and derived quantities • http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/ Proliferation: Variability among reanalyses • Dynamics fields are generally consistent in the presence of observations at any time – However, even time variations of the Hadley and Walker circulations can differ (e.g. Chen et al. 2008) • Physics fields are closely connected to model components of reanalyses (Kalnay et al 1996) • Changes in the observing system affect the climate of a reanalysis (e.g. Onogi et al. 2007) • Despite assimilating much the same observations, uncertainty among reanalyses persists Regional Reanalyses • Generally same principles as global with benefit from: – Higher spatial resolution, targeted physical processes, testing/development focuses on regional priorities – Rely on some global reanalysis for lateral boundary conditions • NARR first and widely used (~32 Km) • Japan regional reanalysis (JRA55, but also NCEP) • Arctic Reanalysis (ARS) – into testing (30Km WRF), planning higher resolution, and integrated system; model development (e.g. NOAH land processes) • EURO4M – High resolution, regional observations, climate and variability including extreme events • Others in consideration for development for South America and South Asia The Next Global Reanalyses: On the horizon for a 2012 Conference • JRA55 – In Preparation, Significant model improvements, 4DVAR, VAR BC, resolution • ERA 75- Starting in 1938, Production ~2013 • GMAO – Phased Integrated Earth System Analyses - in testing, working from MERRA – Partial coupling of the ocean (aerosols and land/sea ice also progressing) • 20CR – Higher resolution, possibly multi-model, uncertainty in forcings • Redundancy may be an issue if progress slows and/or objectives and quality converge Proliferation? • CFS – NCEP Climate Forecast System • GEOS – NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Courtesy Paul Dirmeyer