Operationalising Coping Ranges
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Operationalising Coping Ranges The coping range separates the range of climate variability where outcomes are positive or where damage is at tolerable levels, usually surrounding the mean, from the range of climate where a system is vulnerable, registered as an unacceptable level of damage. A threshold is a non-linear change in state of a single phenomenon or a system. An impact threshold is any threshold defined within an assessment that links a given impact with a climatic state. Climatic thresholds include frost, snow and monsoon onset. Biophysical thresholds represent a distinct change in conditions, such as the drying of a wetland, floods, breeding events. Ecological thresholds include breeding events, local to global extinction or the removal of specific conditions for survival. Socio-economic thresholds are set by benchmarking a level of performance or change of state in a socio-economic system. Exceeding a socio-economic threshold results in a change of legal, regulatory, economic or cultural behaviour. Examples of agricultural thresholds include the yield per unit area of a crop in weight, volume or gross income. Critical thresholds are defined the degree of change linking the onset of a given critical biophysical or socio-economic impact to a particular climate state or states. Criticality is defined as exceeding a tolerable degree of harm. What measure(s) would you use for the coping range in your project? (e.g. rainfall, temperature, crop yields, streamflow, aggregate measure of sustainability) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… What are the input variables for this measure (these measures), if any? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… What vulnerabilities are associated with these variables? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Can you derive a threshold for this relationship (e.g. critical, regulatory, biophysical)? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Do different groups affected by these impacts show different vulnerabilities (i.e. are their coping ranges different)? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… What scenarios of climate change do you intend to use? (e.g. nominate models; principal methods such as downscaling, scenario generators or artificial; major uncertainties accounted for – Emissions, Sensitivity, Mean global warming, Regional mean climate change, Decadal variability, Interannual variability including ENSO, Seasonal variability, Daily variability, Single events, Impact uncertainties – biophysical, Impact uncertainties – socioeconomic, Adaptive capacity, Autonomous adaptation, Planned adaptation, Climate surprises & non-linear climate change) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… What scenarios of socio-economic change will you need to determine how the coping range in future? (This includes model projections, analogue scenarios e.g. comparing one group with another, major policy directions) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… What planning/policy horizons are relevant? (Different groups may have different planning horizons) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Draw a schematic of the coping range you might use.
