Progress Report No1 Mekong River Commission Hydrological, Environmental and Socio-Economic Modelling Tools for the Lower Mekong Basin Impact Assessment Water Utilisation Programme WUP-FIN Phase II Working Paper No.3 – Lao Applications July 2005 Juha Sarkkula, Jorma Koponen, Marko Keskinen, Matti Kummu, Mira Käkönen, Hannu Lauri, Jussi Nikula, Olli Varis, Noora Veijalainen, and Markku Virtanen Finnish Environment Institute Mechelininkatu 34a 00260 Helsinki Finland Tel: +358-9-403 000 Fax: +358-9-40300 390 www.environment.fi/syke juha.sarkkula@environment.fi www.eia.fi/wup-fin EIA Ltd. Tekniikantie 21 B 02150 Espoo Finland Tel: +358-9-7001 8680 Fax: +358-9-7001 8682 www.eia.fi jorma.koponen@eia.fi Helsinki University of Technology Water Resources Laboratory Tietotie 1E 02150 Espoo, Finland Tel: +358-9-451 3821 Fax: +358-9-451 3856 www.water.hut.fi/wr marko.keskinen@hut.fi 1 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission The opinions and interpretations expressed within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Mekong River Commission. 2 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................. 3 TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES ............................................................................. 3 1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................ 5 1.1 OBJECTIVES OF WUP-FIN PHASE II...................................................................... 5 1.2 MAIN TASKS OF THE PROJECT ............................................................................... 6 2 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................... 8 3 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ..................................................................... 9 4 DATA AND DATA COLLECTION......................................................................... 11 5 MODEL SETUP ..................................................................................................... 15 5.1 MODEL PURPOSE AND JUSTIFICATION ................................................................. 15 5.2 MODEL COVERAGE ............................................................................................. 15 5.3 GRID SPECIFICATIONS ........................................................................................ 15 5.4 MODEL PARAMETERS ......................................................................................... 17 5.5 INPUT DATA ........................................................................................................ 18 5.6 COMPUTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................... 18 5.7 STATUS OF THE APPLICATION AND FUTURE WORK PLAN ....................................... 18 6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES AND PLANS ....................................................... 19 7 TRAINING (CORE TEAM, ON-THE-JOB, UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH SUPPORT) ............................................................................................................................... 20 APPENDIX A: PUBLICATIONS, REPORTS AND PRESENTATIONS ...................... 22 PUBLICATIONS ............................................................................................................. 22 REPORTS..................................................................................................................... 23 PRESENTATIONS .......................................................................................................... 23 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 25 TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Mekong Hydrographic atlas for Vientiane area. ........................................ 12 Figure 2. Vientiane pilot model: grid elevations with a nested high resolution model. ........................................................................................................ 16 Figure 3. Pilot model for sub-part of the model area. ............................................... 16 Figure 4. Part of the 50 m Vientiane grid. ................................................................. 17 Figure 5. Calculated flow field with the 50 m grid. ........................................................ 17 www.eia.fi/wup-fin 3 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission 4 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES 1.1 OBJECTIVES OF WUP-FIN PHASE II The Finnish Environment Institute, in consortium with the Environmental Impact Assessment Centre of Finland and the Helsinki University of Technology, contracted by the Mekong River Commission (MRC), is carrying out a project entitled Hydrological, Environmental and Socio-Economic Modelling Tools for the Lower Mekong Basin Impact Assessment. The project, also called the WUP-FIN Phase 2 Project, builds on past work, WUP-FIN Phase 1, completed by the same Finnish research team. WUPFIN project is a complementary project for the MRC Water Utilization Programme (WUP). The WUP-FIN Phase 2 Project will provide additional modelling tools, data, and training for the MRCS and the riparian National Mekong Committees (NMCs), line agencies and universities. This research will be useful for several related MRC Programmes which are identified in the report. In addition, the research team strives to share data and conclusions with other related projects and plans. The main objectives of the WUP-FIN Phase 2 Project are: 1. To complement the MRC Decision Support Framework (DSF) with WUP-FIN modelling tools to improve its hydrological, environmental and socio-economic impact assessment capabilities. 2. To provide technical support to the MRC programme activities, in particular the Basin Development Plan (BDP) and Rule Formulation, by using the WUP-FIN modelling tools for: o Negotiating flow rules and equitable water utilization among the riparian countries (IBFM, WUP, EP) o Estimating environmental and socio-economic consequences of development scenarios (BDP), sustainable maintenance of fisheries (FP) and navigational planning and impact assessment (NP) 3. To build capacity at the MRCS, the NMCs, related line agencies and other institutions to achieve sustainable use of the WUP-FIN modelling and impact assessment tools. The project will focus on target areas in the following locations: Lao PDR—The project will develop an advanced modelling tool to analyze river bank erosion processes and causes, focusing on the Vientiane area in Lao PDR Thailand—The Nam Songkhram watershed for simulation of hydrological processes and estimation of environmental and socio-economic impacts of development scenarios Cambodia—Research will be undertaken to further understand processes in the Tonle Sap Lake and its impact on the region as well as the vulnerability of its ecosystem and biological productivity to developments in the upstream basin. Specific model will be constructed for the Chaktomuk area and Cambodian floodplains Vietnam—WUP-FIN models will be applied to the Mekong Delta to enhance understanding of the complex hydrological, ecosystem and socio-economic processes and understand how conflicting water needs can be met. Mekong Delta model will be combined with the Cambodian floodplain and Tonle Sap models www.eia.fi/wup-fin 5 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission 1.2 MAIN TASKS OF THE PROJECT Task 1.1: Creation of a field measurements database for modelling Additional data collection strives to complement the flow, salinity, turbidity and suspended sediments and dissolved oxygen databases in the target geographic areas. The field measurement activities concentrate on three areas: Vientiane river bank erosion, Tonle Sap sedimentation and Vietnamese Delta flow, sediments and salinity. Task 1.2: Database harmonization with the MRCS Geodatabase and DSF The activities include analysis of MRCS Geodatabase, DSF and WUP-JICA data and tools, data interfacing and integration with the MRCS Geodatabase and guaranteeing easy access to the WUP-FIN models for the users as well as provision of WUP-FIN hydrological, water quality, ecological and socio-economic data import system to the MRCS Geodatabase. Task 1.3: Creation of a set of tools for impact assessment of the Lower Mekong Activities include development of a hybrid 1D/2D/3D channel model integrating river and irrigation channels and control structures (gates, dikes, reservoirs etc.) and combination of the channel model with the 2D/3D model for floodplains, lakes, reservoirs and the coast. Further developments include a small scale channel hydrodynamics and storage model that is relevant especially for the Delta conditions and integration of the Lower Mekong sub-models (Tonle Sap, Cambodian floodplains, Delta). Task 1.4: Development of Lower Mekong sediment model The activities comprise implementation of sediment transport in the hybrid 1D/2D/3D channel model, development of a bed load model as part of the hybrid model and description of different sediment fractions. The main target area for the sediment model development and application will be Vientiane, focusing on 3D river bank erosion modelling. The transport/ sedimentation/ erosion model will be applied also in Tonle Sap and Chaktomuk area and in the Vietnam delta Task 2.1: Technical advice and support to the MRC programmes and projects The project will provide technical assistance for the Integrated Basin Flow Management (IBFM) by assisting in defining acceptable Tonle Sap reverse flow and acceptable minimum and maximum flows (Article 6). It offers support in developing holistic approach for assessing ecological, economic and social consequences of particular flow regimes. The project provides technical assistance for the Basin Development Plan (BDP) in sub-area analyses and forum process and in development scenario impact assessment. Socio-economic field surveys as well as diagnosis and policy recommendations studies will be performed in the Mekong Delta and other possible hotspot areas. An approach will be developed to integrate socio-economic data with hydrological and environmental information, applied in first place on Tonle Sap area. Advanced Policy Models for the hotspot areas (Tonle Sap, Mekong Delta) as well as for the entire Lower Mekong Basin will be set up. Task 3.1: Establishing MRCS’ and riparian countries’ capacity to use and maintain the modelling system During this project MRCS, NMCs, national agencies, provincial departments and universities experts will be trained for sustainable use and maintenance of the modelling tools. Models will be established as everyday tools by cooperating closely with the MRCS programmes and working groups. 6 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 The main training target groups are: The MRCS Modelling Team (Key Modellers and Associated Modellers) as the principal beneficiaries in the training programme. Training is composed of an introductory course, training for new developments and on-the-job training with the WUP-FIN team Key National Trainees from the riparian countries and national model users selected from the NMCs, line agencies and universities. Training will be implemented by an introductory course and a National Training Workshops in each country. Core teams will be selected in each country for convening regularly and participating in model development as well as data acquisition and review. University training will target an interdisciplinary group of university teachers and students. Training will be arranged in intensive periods in each country. The trainee group will be collected from relevant universities. The training will be a lecture course with practical exercises in model use and application. It is likely that some of the university trainees will join the national core teams for more advanced model development and application. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 7 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission 2 BACKGROUND Many sites in the Mekong River are suffering from bank erosion problems that endanger nearby settlements and infrastructures. The Vientiane area in Lao PDR has been identified as a highly critical area and is a trans-boundary issue between Lao PDR and Thailand. WUP-FIN project will address these problems by developing an advanced modelling tool for analysing river bank erosion processes and their causes, whether natural or man-made, upstream or local. The conclusion strives to provide help in designing bank protection structures. At the National Consultations the Lao counterpart, similarly to the Thai counterpart, has emphasized the necessity to cooperate closely with the Thai-Lao Border Commission responsible for the trans-boundary procedures on the erosion issues. It is also the custodian of the related data bases. An important source of information for the project is the work done by the JICA team, in cooperation with the Waterways Department, where data on the river morphology and velocities and effectiveness of different bank protection structures have been gathered. It has been agreed in the National Consultations that focused socio-economic field surveys are needed in the area around Vientiane, where the objective is to find out more information on the possible causes and consequences of localized river bank erosion. The field surveys should be conducted on both the Thai and Laotian sides of the Mekong River in a close cooperation with NMCs in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the existing situation. (see more below in socio-economic studies and plans) 8 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 3 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS At the National Consultations the LNMC has defined the following institutional set-up for the implementation of the WUP-FIN project Focal point and coordinator is Lao National Mekong Committee (LNMC) Counterparts of the project are: Ministry of Communication, Transport, Post and Construction / Waterways Administration Division (WAD) Department of Communication, Transport, Post and Construction of Vientiane Capital Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry/ Department of Irrigation National University of Lao PDR (NUoL) MRCS/TSD For the actual project work and cooperation with the WUP-FIN team the LNMC has nominated tentatively the following core team (participants of the introductory training workshop): Mr. Kongngeun Chounlamountry WUP-coordinator LNMCS Ms. Sonephet Phosalat Technical Officer LNMCS Mr. Keomany Luanglith LNMCS Mr. Somoula Yaphichit Technical Officer LNMCS Mr. Prasit Dimanivong Technical Officer WAD/DOR Ms. Chanthaviphone Soulivanh Technical Officer WAD/DOR Mr. Sompanh Vithaya Technical Officer DMH Mr. Bounseuk Inthapattha Officer DMH Mr. Khamhou Phanthavong Technical Officer DOI Mr Lamphone Dimanivong Technical Officer DOE Mrs. Amphone Vongvixay Lecturer NUoL Mr. Khampasit Thammathevo Lecturer NUoL Mr. Khamseum Soulignamath Lecturer NUoL Mr. Bounthanh Bounvilay Lecturer NUoL Mr. Bounkhong Phomdouangsy Officer DCTPC-VTE Mr. Bouavanh Luangsay Officer URI Mr. Sommano Phounsavath Officer LARReC Mr. Kham Kone SSLCC LNMCS Laos National Mekong Committee WAD/DOR Waterways Administration Division / Department of Roads www.eia.fi/wup-fin 9 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission DMH Department of Meteorology and Hydrology DOI Department of Irrigation NUoL National University of Laos DCTPC-VTE Department of Communication, Transport, Post and Construction of Vientiane Capital URI Urban Research Institute LARReC Living Aquatic Resources Research Center SSLCC Soil Survey and Land Classification Center It is important that the Laotian core team works in close cooperation with the project team, participating actively in training and modelling and measurement activities. This will guarantee proper information dissemination and continuation of established activities in the future. The work of the consultant is geared in development and implementation work that serves both the MRCS needs and the national application. The work directed to the national application involves planning, model set up, guidance for calibration and development and scenario work support. The application must get strong local support in form of work force and data collection. That is why bulk of the model implementation and calibration and scenario work is done by the MRCS modelling team and by the national modelling group as part of the training program. The Expected inputs from the MRCS modelling team and Lao partners Collection and basic processing of existing data Active participation in training, field measurements and modelling activities Scenario modelling Participation in field measurement data and modelling results processing Participation in reporting and publication of results Project resources for the local specific application are quite limited. Because of this, applications must get strong local support in form of work force and data collection. 10 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 4 DATA AND DATA COLLECTION Collection of existing data Identifying and collection of existing data for the Nong Khai – Vientiane model application and bank erosion study started in September 2004 and is still on-going process. At the moment the following data sets have been received: Mekong River Commission River topography from the digital Mekong Hydrographic atlas (Error! Reference source not found.) River bank location from the Mekong Hydrographic atlas in early 1990s Hardcopy of old Hydrographic atlas from 1960s Digital elevation map for the land area with 50 m resolution from old topographical maps and new SRTM elevation model with 90 m resolution Lao PDR Historical TSS concentration measurements at Vientiane port Daily water level and discharge in Vientiane port Bed changes during time have been measured in two projects: JICA (2004) and bank protection project in 1988 Aerial photos from 1991 of Mekong around Vientiane and Nong Khai Thailand Daily water level and discharge in Nong Khai International Bank material analysis made by JICA (2004) and Miazawa et al. (2004) Bed material analysis made by Miazawa et al. (2004) and JICA (2004) Velocity profile measurements on Laos side on three sites done by JICA (2004) Analysis of the bank erosion in Vientiane area made by Rutherford and Bishop (1996) with some mapping comparing the old and new Mekong Hydrographic Atlas and the following data sets have been identified but not received: Mekong River Commission Hourly WL data from AHNIP station in Nong Khai Lao PDR Water level at three stations with recording meters were set up by JICA (2004) Bank material analysis for Laos’ side by national agencies. Soil moisture data (NUoL and WAD are collecting the data) Thailand Historical TSS concentration measurements at Nong Khai Depth integrated suspended sediment concentration measurements at Nong Khai by Nong Khai Hydrological Centre ADCP measurements on Friendship bridge by Nong Khai Hydrological Centre www.eia.fi/wup-fin 11 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission Bank material analysis for Thailand side by national agencies Aerial photos from 1960s of Mekong around Vientiane and Nong Khai. Figure 1. Mekong Hydrographic atlas for Vientiane area. Field measurements Field Measurements and additional data requests have been planned for supporting the modelling work and more comprehensive understanding of the bank erosion process and geomorphological changes. The following activities have been planned for the field work covering the flood season of 2005 (May 2005 – April 2006): 12 Lateral (morphological) changes in river bank o Data: aerial photos (from 1960s (?), 1991, and satellite images (SPOT5/ICONOS if available) for the Nong Khai - Vientiane area o Methods: compare the aerial photos and satellite images from different years with GIS to map and analyse the lateral changes in river bank. This can then be compared to the analysis made by WAD and JICA bank protection master plan who have mapped the critically eroded areas. o Output: maps and gis-layers of the river bank in different years, mapping the changes, report Sediment flux combined with the ADCP measurements o Data: MRC & other existing TSS data + new measurements together with MRCS, LNMC, WAD, NUoL, TNMC, and Nong Khai hydrological centre from two additional places for the Nong Khai measurement station: Vientiane harbour and upstream model boundary ADCP runs are coupled with the SSC samples (black dots) o Methods: using the ADCP, turbidity and sediment sampling to understand the sediment fluxes in river on Vientiane municipality area in different seasons. The historical data (SS sampling once a month from surface layer on the middle of the river) will be used to analyse the changes in suspended sediment concentrations during the last decades. MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 o Additional: particle size distribution in suspended sediment. Equipment: Technical University of Budapest. Availability of the equipment will be declared. Other options need to be clarified Bed load: possible to do with ADCP coupled with the bed samples. Other options need to be clarified. Cross section changes o Data: existing data from 1988, JICA bank protection project, other (?). New data will be collected with echo sounder and/or ADCP. Around 8 cross sections will be selected from the model’s upstream boundary to the friendship bridge. Cross sections will be identified later on together with MRCS, LNMC, WAD, TNMC, and Nong Khai Hydrological Centre o Method: comparing the cross-sections before flood, during the flood and after the flood gives good understanding of the dynamics of the changes in bed level and bank erosion. Intended months to do the survey (flood season may 2005-april 2006) are May, July, August, September, October, December, February, April Longitudinal changes o Data will be collected with echo sounder and/or ADCP. Measurement work for longitudinal sections will be done in cooperation with MRCS, LNMC, WAD, TNMC, and Nong Khai Hydrological Centre o Method: Comparing the changes in longitudinal section from model upper boundary to the Friendship Bridge will enhance the understanding of the longitudinal changes over one flood season in the Vientiane area. Intended months to do the survey are May, September, December, April Bathymetry of the river o Data: Existing bathymetry data is limited for some parts of the Mekong stretch around Vientiane. Especially the higher areas of river bed, as sand bars which are inundated during the wet-season but visible during the dry-season, are not well mapped. Thus, new survey is needed to complement the existing information to be sufficient for the modelling purposes. o Method: using echo sounder/ADCP to enhance the bathymetry map for areas where it is needed. Will be clarified later on together with MRCS, LNMC, WAD, TNMC, and Nong Khai Hydrological Centre. Material analysis in river bed and bank o Data: existing data have to be collected and analysed (soil type, grain size analysis, etc). After identifying the gaps, the needed samples have to be taken in both sides of the river. Bank profile and landuse o Slope profile/gradient o Landuse on river bank Recording current meter o Method: Using the RM9 recording current meter the short term fluctuation in flow speed can be measured. WUP-FIN has 2 equipments. Difficulty to put into the practice: find a proper place to setup the velocity meter. Possible places need to be clarified together with MRCS, LNMC, WAD, TNMC, and Nong Khai Hydrological Centre. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 13 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission Immediate steps In order to start the cooperation on the Nong Khai- Vientiane erosion study the following steps need to be made by the Thai counterpart organisation and nomination of the counterpart core team for cooperating in a) data acquisition and processing b) additional data collection c) model development and application d) training The organisation of the cooperation practice and the training programme are of key importance for fluent proceeding of the data issues and modelling. The above thematic elements are interlinked and comprise of technical cooperation and training elements. For fluent cooperation, the programme is proposed to be composed of a start-up meeting at Nong Khai Hydrological Centre and regular follow-up meetings (frequency once in 1-2 months). The actual work could proceed by web-based communication for performing the individual tasks between the group meetings, as defined and agreed at the meetings. Remaining challenges in the work and data collection, which are not planned, are to 14 Understand the impact of the ground water for the bank erosion MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 5 MODEL SETUP 5.1 MODEL PURPOSE AND JUSTIFICATION The Lao PDR partners have indicated that the Mekong river bank erosion is a national priority. There are indications that at least the spatial extension of bank erosion has increased manifold (JICA 200x). On the other hand there are expert evaluations that propose that the bank erosion at least near Vientiane is a natural phenomenon (199x). There are a number of factors that may contribute to the potential increase of the bank erosion: the sand mining in both sides of the river and accompanying road construction blocking the natural flow river protection constructions, especially those reaching far from the shore changes in upstream sediment input which changes the balance between sedimentation and erosion causing decreasing net sedimentation increased water level fluctuations caused by land use changes (deforestation) and large reservoir regulation changes in hydrological conditions altering the groundwater seepage. It is nearly impossible to analyze these factors separately and quantitatively without modelling tools. The expected results of the modelling work are 1) clarification and better understanding of the erosion processes, 2) understanding the role of man in potentially increased erosion, 3) estimates of the changes in erosion potential for different future scenarios, and 4) recommendations for erosion mitigation measures. If proven reliable the information can be used in the trans-boundary negotiations to create common ground and mutual understanding of the basic issues. The bank erosion is tied with the river channel evolution. The flow velocities (direct shear stress), bed erosion and sedimentation and water level fluctuations determine the bank erosion potential. Because of this it is important to model the whole channel and not just the banks when studying the bank erosion. 5.2 MODEL COVERAGE Model area coverage is shown in Figure 1. The model area covers 33.5 km x 21 km area from upstream Vientiane to Nong Khai downstream. Because of meandering the river length in this area is approximately 60 km. All of the river banks in this area are not affected by erosion but there are a number of hot spots along both banks. There exists a hydrological station in Nong Khai and downstream boundary values can be obtained from water level and discharge measurements. 5.3 GRID SPECIFICATIONS The model area has been agreed with both the Lao and Thai counterparts. It poses a problem because the area is large compared to the required model accuracy. During the pilot phase of the project various sub-grids were tried to avoid excessive computation times and yet providing good resolution. Examples of these grids can be seen in Figure 2 and Figure 3. The sub-model approach has been abandoned because 1) development and maintenance of a large number of individual sub-models is not www.eia.fi/wup-fin 15 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission practical, 2) on many occasions the river needs to be studies as a whole and not as isolated sub-areas, 3) the modelling technique enables fast aggregation of grid cells for rougher and faster simulations or elimination of other than a focal areas from the computation – because of this it is more feasible to maintain one high resolution grid and downgrade when needed from it. The aggregation works by combining 4, 9, 16 etc. grid cells together and speeds up the calculation by decreasing the number of grid cells and increasing the time steps. The final Vientiane model grid size is 50 m (Figure 4). The number of grid cells in the horizontal plane is 669 x 418, that is approximately 280’000 horizontal grid cells. In the vertical there are 10 layers. 9 uppermost layers are 1 m thick and the tenth varies according to the water depth as well as the thickness of the bottom layer varies. Altogether there are 2’800’000 3D grid points. 16 Figure 2. model. Vientiane pilot model: grid elevations with a nested high resolution Figure 3. Pilot model for sub-part of the model area. MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 Figure 4. Part of the 50 m Vientiane grid. 5.4 MODEL PARAMETERS The Vientiane model parameters are: 1) flow related physical parameters (3D flow, water depth, flooding) 2) suspended solids concentration 3) sedimentation and bed erosion 4) bank erosion. The model parameters focus on those needed for understanding the processes behind the bank erosion. An example of the calculated flows is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5. Calculated flow field with the 50 m grid. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 17 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission 5.5 INPUT DATA The sounding data and river bank boundaries from the digitalized Hydrographic Atlas were used for creating the 3D model grid for Vientiane area. The sounding points in Hydrographic Atlas tell the depth of the water below the lowest low water level (LLW). The LLW above the mean sea level (amsl) is marked for each kilometre of the river. Thus, the bathymetry for the river bed in amsl can be calculated for each point by using the LLW in question as a reference point. For the floodplains and land area the SRTM 90 m resolution DEM was used. For the final grid these two datasets were combined. Discharge measurements in Vientiane are used as upper boundary conditions for the model. The rating curve in Friendship Bridge has been used for the downstream boundary condition. Although the discharge measurement point in Vientiane is some kilometres downstream from the model’s upper boundary it can describe the flow accurately enough as there are no big rivers flowing in to Mekong between. The water level measurements in Vientiane harbour and additional stations set up by JICA (2004) will be used to calibrate e.g. the friction factors used in the model. The upstream boundary sediment concentrations have to be estimated from measurements because there exists no upstream sediment model. Ongoing WUP-FIN survey program will supplement the existing measurements. 5.6 COMPUTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS Calculation of the Vientiane model takes about 5.8 hours for a month with a ADM 64 bit 2 GHz processor. (An Athlon XP 32 bit 1.73 GHz processor would take almost twice that time.) A full year simulation would take 70 hours but grid integration would decrease the computational times sharply. For instance grid integration number 2 would combine 4 horizontal grid cells together throughout the grid and would decrease the full year calculation time to about 14 hours by decreasing the number of grid cells and increasing some of the time steps. The 50 m grid is quite large by any standards. It is even larger than the WUP-FIN Lower Mekong Basin 1 km grid. Despite the fact that the model process requires over 1 GB of (virtual) memory, swapping to the hard disk is no problem even with a machine with 500 MB of physical memory. The memory allocation scheme of the compiler and operating system keep only the most active parts of the program in the physical memory and thus eliminate largely the need for constant use of the very slow hard disk based virtual memory. 5.7 STATUS OF THE APPLICATION AND FUTURE WORK PLAN As concerns the data the model setup is rather clear. Available topographic data has been integrated in the model as well as the boundary discharge and water level conditions. The remaining tasks concentrate on processing measurement data for model calibration and validation and conduction the model calibration and validation. The Lao Core Team will be the main responsible partner in this task with a strong support by the WUP-FIN team. The measurement data includes water level, sediment and flow measurement data. 18 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES AND PLANS Socio-economic analysis of the bank erosion in Vientiane Area was initiated during the WUP-FIN Introductory Training Workshop in Laos on 8-9 February 2005 where also a short training session on socio-economic analysis approach and methods was held. Based on the discussions during and after the workshop, the Lower Mekong Modelling Project (WUP-FIN) and the Lao National Mekong Committee (LNMC) and its related line agencies agreed to carry out a focused socio-economic analysis of bank erosion issues within the Vientiane Municipality Area. The aim of the socio-economic analysis is to support the WUP-FIN modelling work by improving the understanding of the impacts, trends and reasons of the bank erosion process, and to enhance the participation of the local people in the modelling work. The socio-economic analysis is based on: 1. Meetings and key-informant interviews with the LNMC, WAD and Vientiane Municipality 2. Village surveys consisting of group discussions in three villages within Vientiane Area The key-informant interviews were carried out in two separate occasions on 10 February and on 4 March. A boat trip to study the real impacts of the bank erosion was carried out by the survey team and WUP-FIN team on March 6, and the village surveys started on 8 March. The survey team in first survey included three local team members from LNMC, WAD and Bank Protection Department of Vientiane Municipality as well as the WUP-FIN Socio-Economist Marko Keskinen, while the latter surveys were carried out independently by local team members. The draft report from the village surveys will be ready in April 2005. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 19 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission 7 TRAINING (CORE TEAM, ON-THE-JOB, UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH SUPPORT) The main training activity in Laos has been the introductory training in Vientiane on 8-9 February 2005. The participants came from national institutes. Main objects of the training were share the WUP-FIN Project Phase 1 (Tonle Sap) findings and experience with the Lao trainees instruct the Lao trainees to use the WUP-FIN tools launch the first version of Vientiane sediment transport and bank erosion model for testing and discuss further cooperation and training in developing and utilizing the model. Other training related activities are still under planning stage. Many meetings have been hold with WAD and NUoL according to training and other project issues as field work and existing data gathering. The research support will be identified later. 20 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 model development. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 21 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission APPENDIX A: PUBLICATIONS, REPORTS AND PRESENTATIONS The following publications, reports and presentations done by the team members are related to WUP-FIN project phase 2. PUBLICATIONS Keskinen, M., 2004. Participatory village surveys in water resources management case from Tonle Sap Lake, 30th WEDC International Conference on People-Centred Approaches to Water and Environmental Sanitation in Vientiane, Laos, October 2004. Keskinen, M., 2005. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Mekong Development – Case Tonle Sap Lake, International Symposium of Role of water sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management, March 2005. Ubon Ratchatani, Thailand. Keskinen, M., Makkonen, K. and Varis, O., 2005. The Role of China and Cambodia in the Mekong Region. In: L. Jansky and M. Nakayama (Editors), Endangered International Waters: Lessons from Domestic Security Issues. UNU Press. Keskinen, M., Koponen, J., Kummu, M., Nikula, J. and Sarkkula, J., 2005. Integration of Socio-economic and Hydrological data in the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia. In: V. Kachitvichyanukul, U. Purintrapiban and P. Utayopas (Editors), Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Simulation & Modeling, SimMod'05, Bangkok, Thailand. Koponen, J., Kummu, M. and Sarkkula, J., 2004. Modelling Tonle Sap Lake Environmental Change, SIL XXIX International Congress of Limnology, Lahti, Finland. Kummu, M., Koponen, J. and Sarkkula, J., 2004. Upstream impacts on Lower Mekong Floodplains: Tonle Sap case study, Proceedings of the International Conference on “Advances in Integrated Mekong River Management”, Vientiane, Lao PDR. Kummu, M., Koponen, J. and Sarkkula, J., 2005. Modelling Sediment Transportation in Tonle Sap Lake for Impact Assessment. In: V. Kachitvichyanukul, U. Purintrapiban and P. Utayopas (Editors), Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Simulation & Modeling, SimMod'05, Bangkok, Thailand. Kummu, M., Koponen, J., and Sarkkula, J. 2005. Assessing Impacts of the Mekong development in the Tonle Sap Lake, International Symposium of Role of water sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management, March 2005. Ubon Ratchatani, Thailand. Sarkkula, J., Kiirikki, M., Koponen, J. and Kummu, M., 2003. Ecosystem processes of the Tonle Sap Lake, Ecotone II - 1 workshop, Phnom Penh/Siem Reap, Cambodia. Sarkkula, J., Baran, E., Chheng, P., Keskinen, M., Koponen, J. and Kummu, M., 2004. Tonle Sap Pulsing System and Fisheries Productivity, SIL XXIX International Congress of Limnology, Lahti, Finland. Sarkkula, J., Koponen, J., Kummu, M., Keskinen, M. and Varis, O., 2005. Integrated modelling for impact assessment in Mekong Delta and Cambodian floodplains, International Conference on Deltas: Geological modelling and Management, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. January, 2005. Sarkkula, J., Koponen, J. and Kummu, M., 2005. Assessing Impacts of the Mekong development in the Tonle Sap Lake, International symposium on Role of Water 22 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 Sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand. March, 2005. van Zalinge, N., Loeung, D., Pengbun, N., Sarkkula, J. and Koponen, J., 2003. Mekong flood levels and Tonle Sap fish catches, Second International Symposium on the Management of Large Rivers for Fisheries, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 11-14 February 2003. Varis, O. & Keskinen, M. 2005. A Bayesian net-work model for intersectorial policy analysis in the Tonle Sap area, Cambodia. In: Kachitvichyanukul, V., Purintrapiban, U. & Utayopas, P. (Eds.): Simulation and Modelling: Integrating Sciences and Technology for Effective Resource Management: 280-288. International Conference on Simulation and Modelling, January 17-19, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok. WUP-FIN, 2003. Modelling Tonle Sap for Environmental Impact Assessment and Management Support. MRCS / WUP-FIN Project, Final Report, Mekong River Commission, Phnom Penh. REPORTS Keskinen, M. and Varis, O., 2004. WUP-FIN Policy Model – Analysing the strategies of the Tonle Sap Sub-Area Analysis Process. Draft Report, Mekong River Commission, Water Utilisation Programme Component FIN, Phase 2. Vientiane, Lao PDR. Keskinen, M., Sambo, Y., Pok, N. and Oeurn, S., 2004. In the bend of the Bassac River – Participatory village survey in Chheu Khmau Commune, Cambodia. Draft Report, Mekong River Commission, Water Utilisation Programme Component FIN, Phase 2. Vientiane, Lao PDR. Keskinen, M., Sambo, Y., Pok, N, Samon, C. and Kamara Y., 2004. Living in the Mekong Floodplain – Participatory village survey in Preah Sdach Commune, Cambodia. Draft Report, Mekong River Commission, Water Utilisation Programme Component FIN, Phase 2. Vientiane, Lao PDR. Nikula, J., 2005. Integration of hydrological and socio-economic information in the Tonle Sap Lake. Draft Report, Mekong River Commission, Water Utilisation Programme Component FIN, Phase 2. Vientiane, Lao PDR. WUP-FIN. 2005. Hydrological, Environmental and Socio-Economic Modelling Tools for the Lower Mekong Basin Impact Assessment: Inception report. Mekong River Commission, Water Utilisation Programme Component FIN, phase 2. Vientiane, Lao PDR. PRESENTATIONS At International Symposium on Role of Water Sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand, March 2005. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Mekong Development – Case Tonle Sap Lake. At International Symposium of Role of water sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management, March 2005. Ubon Ratchatani, Thailand. Assessing Impacts of the Mekong development in the Tonle Sap Lake. At International Conference on Simulation & Modeling, SimMod'05, Bangkok, Thailand. January 2005. A Bayesian net-work model for intersectorial policy analysis in the Tonle Sap area, Cambodia. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 23 Lower Mekong Basin modelling project, Mekong River Commission At International Conference on Simulation & Modeling, SimMod'05, Bangkok, Thailand. January 2005. Integration of Socio-economic and Hydrological data in the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia. At International Conference on Simulation & Modeling, SimMod'05, Bangkok, Thailand. January 2005. Modelling Sediment Transportation in Tonle Sap Lake for Impact Assessment. At International Conference on Deltas, Geological modelling and Management. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. January 2005. Integrated modelling for impact assessment in Mekong Delta and Cambodian floodplains. Keynote speech. At Geography seminar series 2004-2005 in Department of Geography, National University of Singapore. December 2004.Sediment and ecosystem of the Tonle Sap Lake. At 30th WEDC International Conference on People-Centred Approaches to Water and Environmental Sanitation in Vientiane, Laos, October 2004. Participatory village surveys in water resources management - case from Tonle Sap Lake At IAG 2nd Yangtze Fluvial Conference, Shanghai, China. June, 2004. Sedimentation and Mekong Upstream Development: Impacts on the Lower Mekong Basin. At Computational Earth Science seminar, Finnish IT Centre for Science (CSC), May 2004. Modelling sediment transportation in alluvial system. 24 MRCS/WUP-FIN --- April 2005 Progress Report No1 REFERENCES WUP-FIN, 2003. Modelling Tonle Sap for Environmental Impact Assessment and Management Support. MRCS / WUP-FIN Project, Final Report, Mekong River Commission, Phnom Penh. www.eia.fi/wup-fin 25