Assessing Agriculture and Livestock Water Demand in 2025/50:
Food Habits, Income Growth and Spatial Pattern
O. P. Singh
Abstract
Irrigation development is a critical input for crop production. Without irrigation, increase in crop yields and outputs
would not be possible and thus irrigation is vital to food security and sustainable livelihood. In India during Green
Revolution, irrigation availability helped increase income and improve nutritional intake. It helped in reducing gap
between foodgrain production and demand at national level.
Out of the total growth in food production, nearly 20% increase is attributed to expansion of the net cropped area and
remaining 80% by increase in crop yield. Globally, there are two major water-dependent interests, which are in conflict
today. They are “food security” and “ecological security”. Globally, agriculture is the major user of all water resources
for both, “green water” (rainfall) and “blue water” (water in rivers, lakes and aquifers) and it accounts for about
70% of all withdrawals worldwide. The overall objective of the present study is find the change in food habits and to
estimate state-wise current level of food demand in India. The study also attempts to make a projection of food demand
for the year 2025/51 and commensurate water requirement for producing that quantity of food.
As per the projection total population of the country is likely to touch 1319.31 million and 1532.34 million and
share of urban population would be 34% and 39% 2025 and 2050 respectively. Analysis shows that per capita Net
State Domestic Product (NSDP) at constant price (at 1980-81 prices) is growing with a compound growth rate of
3.09% per annum during 1980-81 to 1997-98 at aggregate level. The long term National Sample Survey (NSS)
data on food consumption pattern suggests that there has been decline in per capita cereal consumption since early
1970s. Decline in per capita cereal consumption is partly explained by the wide selection of food items like milk and
milk products, meat, fish and eggs, fruits and vegetables etc. Besides this, change in the lifestyle of the peoples – such as
reductions in physical labour (in rural areas) and less time available for food preparation (in urban areas).
Rapid economic growth, along with shifts in consumption patterns lead to higher demand of livestock based products
i.e. milk, meat, fish and eggs. Currently per capita consumption of meat, fish and eggs are very low. Increase in the
demand of meat, egg and fish would further increase the demand for cereal based feed and finally irrigation water
demand. Due to increase in demand of Fish, farmers may convert some farm land into fish pond and they can use
irrigation water for cultivation of fish, resulting further increase in irrigation water.
Due to increase in demand of milk production, dairy farmers may shift from free grazing system of milk production to
stall feeding of milk production, this would further leads demand of irrigation water, because dairy farmers are
growing water intensive green fodder. Therefore, it is required to produce water efficient milk by using water efficient
green fodder with high yielding variety of cattle viz., crossbred cow. The post harvest losses of the fruits and vegetables
are very high i.e. about 20% of the production due to perishable in nature. Therefore, it is required to minimise the
post harvest losses by introducing appropriate cold storage facility etc., this would save the lot of the irrigation water.
In summary, our analysis shows that the demand projections for food as well as irrigation water requirements made by
the National Commission on Integrated water Resources Development (1999) are cogent and realistic.

Consultant, International Water Management Institute, Elecon campus, Anand – Sojitra Road, VV Nagar, Anand,
Gujarat, India. E-mail: o.singh@cgiar.org
1
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Irrigation development is a critical input for crop production. Without irrigation, increase in crop
yields and outputs would not be possible and thus irrigation is vital to food security and sustainable
livelihood. In India during Green Revolution, irrigation availability helped increase income and
improve nutritional intake. It helped in reducing gap between foodgrain production and demand at
national level.
Irrigated crop production provides higher yield as compared to rain-fed crop production. It also
helps farmers to increase cropping intensity and intensive use of production inputs i.e. fertilizer, high
yielding variety etc. Irrigated crop production has made significant contribution to total foodgrain
production of the country (Evenson et al., 1999; Kumar, 2003). Out of the total growth in food
production, nearly 20% increase is attributed to expansion of the net cropped area and remaining
80% by increase in crop yield (Bhalla et al., 1999). Researchers in the past have argued for bringing
more area under irrigated crop production in the country to meet the fast growing demand of
foodgrains (Rosegrant and Ringler, 1998; Evenson et al., 1999; Carruthers et al., 1997). Globally,
there are two major water-dependent interests, which are in conflict today. They are “food security”
and “ecological security” (Postel, 1996; Falkenmark, 2004). Globally, agriculture is the major user of
all water resources for both, “green water” (rainfall) and “blue water” (water in rivers, lakes and
aquifers) and it accounts for about 70% of all withdrawals worldwide (FAO, 2002). Rapid growth in
water demand for urban domestic and industrial uses is competing with the irrigation water. It is
projected that demand of water for domestic and industrial sector increases at much faster rate than
the agricultural demand, especially in developing countries (Shiklomanov, 1998; Rosegrant et al.,
1999). Population and income growth will increase the irrigation water demand too, in future to
meet the food demand (Rosegrant et al., 2002).
The rapidly growing population of the country leads to increased demand for foodgrains while per
capita availability of arable land and irrigation water reduces. There is a regional mismatch between
water resource availability and requirements. Most of the water-rich regions (per-humid to humid) of
India are densely populated. These regions are characterized by small land holding per capita, high
rainfall with low crop ET requirements, and abundant water resources. Water scarce regions (arid
and semi-arid) are characterized by low population density, bigger per capita land holding size, low
rainfall with high crop ET requirement and less water resources (Kumar and Singh 2005a). In water
abundant region, land availability for crop production is a limiting factor to utilize available water
resource (irrigation water). In such situation large amount of irrigation water is unutilized, whereas in
case of water scarce region, agricultural land is in plenty but irrigation water availability is limiting
factor for crop production. Farmers of water scarce regions largely depend on the green water (rainwater) and groundwater for crop production which leads to groundwater depletion.
Agriculture diversification in India is steadily accelerating towards high value crops and livestock
activities to augment farm income (Joshi et al., 2004). Some of the factors that influence the nature
and pace of agricultural diversification from staple food to high value crops are technological change
in crop production, improved rural infrastructure, and diversification in food demand (Pingali and
Rosegrant, 1995). In Indian context, the nature of agricultural diversification differs across regions
due to wide heterogeneity in agro-climatic and socioeconomic condition. Generally, the patterns of
agricultural diversification show a shift from crop production to livestock production during 1980s
and 1990s (Joshi et al., 2004). The livestock sub-sector across different regions has grown as a result
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of mounting demand of livestock products, viz., milk, meat, egg etc. Growing irrigation water
scarcity for cereal production is the main reason for the shift towards water efficient high valued
crops. Diversification in favour of horticulture and livestock commodities is more pronounced in
rainfed area. Rain-fed areas are becoming a hub of non-cereals production due to their low crop
water requirement and farmers are utilizing green water (soil moisture) for crop production. Some
times farmers are providing one of two protective irrigations during the water stress to maximise
their income (Joshi et al., 2004; Kumar and Singh, 2005b).
From the foregoing discussion one can say that food habits of Indian population are changing and it
will have direct impact on water required for producing the needed foodgarin. This study is an
attempt to assess the requirement of food items and irrigation water for 2025/2050.
2.0
OBJECTIVES
The overall objective of the present study is find the change in food habits and to estimate state-wise
current level of food demand in India. The study also attempts to make a projection of food
demand for the year 2025/51 and commensurate water requirement for producing that quantity of
food.
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3.0
To estimate the state-wise rural and urban human population in 2025/2051.
To estimate the state-wise current level of food consumption pattern and estimate it for
2025/2051.
To estimate the state-wise livestock feed demand in 2025/2051.
To estimate the state-wise seed/waste and other uses in 2025/2051.
To estimate the state-wise total water demand for production of food items in 2025/2051.
METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK (Demand Driven Approach)
Figure 1 provides methodological framework for demand driven approach for assessing state-wise
food and irrigation water demand for the year 2025 and 2050.
4.0
DRIVERS OF FOOD DEMAND IN INDIA
4.1
Population Growth
Population growth in rural and urban area will be the key determinant of growth in demand for food
in the country in coming decades (Dyson and Hanchate, 2000). Population distribution in India is
uneven and it is varies from state. Thus we face inter regional variation in total food demand. Many
researchers in past have analyzed the India’s demographic growth and they arrived at varied
projections for the period of 2010 and 2020 using 1991 population census (Bhatt, 2001; Natrajan,
1993; UN, 1994; GOI, 1996; Visaria and Visaria, 1996; Kumar, 1998; Bhalla et al., 1999; Bansil,
1999). Variation can be attributed to difference in their assumptions. The demographic projections
by different scholars and agencies are presented in Table 1. Mahmood and Kundu used 2001 census
data and have made demographic for the year 2025 and 2050. This is very much close to the Visaria
and Visaria’s projection.
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Figure 1: Methodological Framework for Demand Driven Approach
Agricultural Water
Demand
Increase in rainfed
cultivation
Crop Water Requirement
Non-beneficial
irrigation water use
Over use of
irrigation water
for crop
Production
Food Demand (Cereals,
pulses, oilseed, milk, meat,
fish, egg, oil, vegetables, fruits
and Sugar)
Post harvest
losses
Increase in green
fodder demand
Per capita food
consumption
Change in milk
production
system
Growth in rural/
urban population
Increase in cereal
based animal feed
demand
Increase/decrease
in crop based food
demand
Increase in water use
for fish production
Increase in livestock
population
Increase in animal
based food
demand
Growth in per
capita income
Increase in area
under fish
cultivation
Change in food
consumption
pattern
Increase in
fish/meat/egg
demand
4
For the projection of state-wise food demand, we used recent demographic projections made by the
Mahmood and Kundu (2006). State-wise population projection for 2025 and 2050 is presented in
Table 2. As per the projection total population of the country is likely to touch 1319.31 million and
1532.34 million in 2025 and 2050 respectively. State-wise population projections depicted that Uttar
Pradesh (UP) would remain highly populated state followed by Bihar and Madhya Pradesh (MP) in
2050. The contribution of UP’s population to India’s total population would be 22.13% and 28.77%
in 2025 and 2050 respectively. The share of Bihar’s population to India’s total population would be
11.85% and 11.51% in 2025 and 2050 respectively. If we considered Bihar and UP’s population
together, then both the states would be contributes about 34% and 40% of the India’s total
population in 2025 and 2050 respectively.
As per population census conducted in 2001, Haryana is least populated state amongst major Indian
states. Total population of the state was 21.08 million which accounts for about 2.15% of the India’s
total population in 2001. As per population projection made by the Mahmood and Kundu (2006),
state would remain less populated state amongst major Indian states even in 2050. In 2025 and 2050,
share of state population to India’s total population would be 2.03% and 1.83% respectively.
4.1.1 Rate of Urbanization
Urbanization is an important factor for estimating future food demand of the country as
urbanization affects food demand in several ways. Dyson and Hanchate (2000) suggest that urban
dwellers have access to a wider variety of food basket and other goods and their lifestyle generates
higher demand for processed foods. These factors directly affect food demand. Thus any attempt to
make food demand projection without taking urbanization scenario into account would not give a
correct picture.
Several researchers have estimated different rate of urbanization and they used it for the food
demand projection for India as a whole. For instance Kumar (1998) assumes that about 32.5%
population would be leave in urban area in 2020. Bhalla et al. (1999) used government of India’s
estimate of 35% of the total population would live in urban area in 2020; whereas Bansil (1999)
assumed that about 40% of the India’s population would be live in urban area in 2020. As per UN
projection, about 39.2% of the population will be live in urban area in 2020.
Table 3 provides state-wise total population for the period of 2001 and projected population for
2025 and 2050 and percentage share of rural and urban population to total population. As per the
projection made by the Mahmood and Kundu (2006) contribution of urban population to India’s
total population would be 34.44% and 38.84% for 2025 and 2050 respectively. Their projection also
shows that urbanization would be lower in Assam and highest in Tamil Nadu. In case of Assam,
share of urban population to total population would be 19.38% and 23.78% in 2025 and 2050
respectively whereas in Tamil Nadu urbanization figures for the same period would be 50.52% and
54.92% respectively. In case of highly populated states i.e. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar about 68% and
76% of the populations would live in rural area in 2050.
4.2
Growth in Per Capita Income
Economic growth may have some influence on the future food demand projection, in that, higher
incomes may increase the demand for non-cereal based food products like fruits, vegetables and
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animal based products viz., milk, eggs, fish and meat. Economic growth will also help to facilitate
the supply of such foods. It may increase the demand of non-food items and change in tastes and
lifestyles will influence overall food demand of the country. The recent review of economic
performance in the major states indicates that for pre-reform (1980-81 to 1990-91) and post-reform
(1991-92 to 1997-98) periods, the average growth rate of per capita state domestic product rose
from 3.03% to 4.0% per annum (Ahluwalia, 2000 as cited in Dyson and Hanchate, 2000). The
World Bank has projected average per capita income growth of 4.4% per year at aggregate level for
India. Analysis shows that per capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) at constant price (at
1980-81 prices) is growing with a compound growth rate of 3.09% per annum during 1980-81 to
1997-98 at aggregate level.
Figure 2 represents the state-wise per capita annual compound growth rate of NSDP during 1980-81
to 1997-98 at constant price (1980-81 price). All the major Indian states are showing positive growth
trend for per capita NSDP during 1980-81 to 1997-98. The lowest per capita growth of NSDP was
observed in Bihar with annual compound growth rate of 0.06% per annum during the same period
of time. The highest per capita NSDP growth was observed in Maharashtra with a compound
growth rate of 5.45% per annum.
4.3
Food Consumption Pattern
The long term National Sample Survey (NSS) data on food consumption pattern suggests that there
has been decline in per capita cereal consumption since early 1970s (Bansil, 1999; Rao, 1999; Kumar,
1998; Kumar and Mathur, 1997; Radhakrishna and Ravi, 1992). Using 30 days reference period for
food consumption, average monthly per capita cereal consumption in urban areas of India have
fallen from 11.24 kg in 1973-74 to 10.63 kg in 1993-94 and corresponding figure for rural area are
15.26 kg and 13.40 kg respectively. The highest decline is accounted for the coarse cereals, but
consumption of superior cereals viz., rice and wheat has remained fairly stable during the period.
Decline in per capita cereal consumption is partly explained by the wide selection of food items like
milk and milk products, meat, fish and eggs, fruits and vegetables etc. Besides this, change in the
lifestyle of the peoples – such as reductions in physical labour (in rural areas) and less time available
for food preparation (in urban areas). The poorest sections of population have experienced modest
increases in their cereal consumption level but they may also switch over to other food items with
increase in their earnings.
4.4
Level of Expenditure on Food and Non-food Items
Expenditure on food and non-food items in rural and urban area for the period of 1993-94
to 2003 is presented in Figure 3. In 1993-94, total monthly per capita expenditure on food and nonfood items was Rs. 281.40 in rural area. Out of this share of expenditure on food items was about
63.18% and remaining 36.82% on non-food items. In 2003, the per capita monthly expenditure on
food and non-food items doubled to Rs. 544.15. Out of this, share of expenditure on food items
was 53.88% and remaining 46.12% expenditure was made for non-food items in rural area (Figure
3). During 1993-2003, in rural areas, the expenditure on food items declined by 10% and
expenditure increased on non-food items by 10%.
6
In 1993-94, total monthly per capita expenditure on food and non-food items was Rs. 458.0 in
urban area. Out of this, share of expenditure on food and non-food items was 54.65% and 45.35%
respectively. By 2003, the expenditure on food and non-food items in urban area had doubled that is
reached the level of Rs. 1021.89/capita/month. Out of this, share of food and non-food items was
41.98% and 58.02% respectively. The state-wise monthly expenditure on food items is presented in
Annexure 1a & 1b.
4.4.1 Expenditure Pattern on Food Items
Figure 4 shows the historical growth of monthly per capita consumer expenditure on food items1 by
rural and urban population during 1972-73 to 2003. In 1972-73, out of the total monthly per capita
expenditure on food and non-food2 items, rural population was spending about 73% on food items
which declined to 54% in 2003 while for the same period percentage expenditure for urban
population was 64.5% and 42% respectively (Figure 3). Monthly per capita expenditure on food
items incurred by rural and urban population is showing negative compound growth rate of -1.43%
per annum and -2.54% per annum respectively during 1972-73 to 2003.
Average annual per capita expenditure on cereals incurred by the rural and urban population is
presented in Table 4. Out of the total expenditure incurred on cereals, rice and wheat together
account for about 92% in rural area and about 97% in urban area in 2003. In 1993-94, total
expenditure incurred on cereal item was Rs. 828.78/capita/annum in rural area. Out of this, rice and
wheat account for 68.88% and 26.87% respectively in rural area. In urban area, total expenditure on
cereals was Rs. 782.53/capita/annum in 1993-94. Out of this, rice and wheat are accounting for
about 59.41% and 37.86% respectively in 1993-94 (Table 4). In 2003, total expenditure made by the
rural population on cereals was Rs. 1219.31/capita/annum and share of expenditure on rice and
wheat was 61.33% and 31.12% respectively. In case of urban area, total annual expenditure on cereal
items was Rs. 1240.73/capita in 2003 and share of rice and wheat was 56.37% and 40.19%
respectively. The state-wise average per capita expenditure on cereals is presented in Annexure – 2.
4.5
Changes in Livestock Feeding Pattern
Increase in per capita income of the rural and urban population, leads to increase in demand of
livestock based products viz., milk, meet and eggs and it will continue to grow rapidly in India in
coming years. This will lead the higher pressure on livestock production system. Traditional breeds
and feeding practices are likely to give way to improved cattle breed and a grater reliance on stall
feeding. The cattle owners would provide green and dry fodders and cereals based cattle feed to
cattle for higher milk production. As per estimate made by Bhalla et al. (1999), currently less than 5
million tonnes of cereals are used to feed livestock each year which account for about 4 to 5 per cent
of total cereal production (Bhalla et al., 1999). Sharma and Gandhi (1990) estimated that the
production of one kg meet and egg requires about 2.0 kg of cereals based feed and one kg of milk
production requires about 0.2 kg of cereal based feed. Bhalla et al. (1999) considered 1.2 kg of cereal
based feed requirement for the production of one kg of meet, fish and eggs and 0.12 kg feed for one
kg of milk.
Food items includes Cereals, Gram (whole), Cereal Substitutes, Pulses & Products, Milk & Products, Edible
Oils, Meat, Egg, Fish, Vegetables, Fruits & Nuts, Sugar, Salt & Spices and Beverages etc.
2 Non-food items include Pan, Tobacco & Intoxicants, Fuel & Light, Clothing, Footwear, Misc. Goods &
services and Durable goods.
1
7
If milk production shift from free grazing system to stall feeding, then irrigation water requirement
for milk production would increase and this would make milk production more water intensive
compared to free grazing system. In case of stall feeding farmers are growing green fodder and
cereal based concentrates to feed livestock. Some time farmers are growing water intensive green
fodder crops to feed cattle. For example, dairy farmers of north Gujarat region of Gujarat state are
growing alfalfa (green fodder) crop which is a water guzzler and it takes about 1786 mm of irrigation
water. Generally farmers are keeping low milk producing indigenous cows and buffaloes. This makes
milk production more water intensive. Keeping efficient milk producing cattle like crossbred cows
with water efficient green fodder crops would make milk production less water intensive (for detail
see Singh, 2004 and Singh et al. 2004).
4.6
Changes in Post Harvest Losses in Foodgrains, Fruits and Vegetables
Post-harvest losses occur during a long gestation period starting from crop harvest to final stage of
the consumption. Between harvesting to final consumption food items undergo sequence of
activities. These activities can be divided into two groups: [a] technical activities (harvesting, field
drying, threshing, cleaning, additional drying, storage, and processing); and [b] economic activities
(transporting, marketing, quality control, and nutrition). Some of the perishable commodities start
deteriorating their quality few hours after the produce/harvest like leafy vegetables, milk, and fruits
etc. Therefore, these commodities require special care after production/harvest till it reaches its’
final destination for consumption. During the period of food shortage and economic growth would
force to introduce efficient food storage systems to reduce the post harvest losses especially in case
of perishable commodities like milk, vegetables and fruits.
As per assumptions made by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture,
government of India, the post harvest losses are 1.1% of rice production, 3.0% of wheat production,
4.6% of coarse grains production and 2.2% for pulses (Kumar, 1998). The wastage of grains which
is not fit for the human consumption may be used for livestock feed. Kumar (1998) suggests that
about 50% of the total food losses would be used as feed for livestock. In case of fruits and
vegetables, the post harvest losses are up to 30%. If we can manage to reduce the losses of fruits and
vegetables by using efficient technology even by 10% this will help in substantial irrigation water
saving.
4.7
Import of Foodgrains for Animal and Poultry Feed
India has a vast bovine population of indigenous cows and buffaloes yielding low milk and they are
competing with the natural resources i.e. land and water. Increasing bovine population, to meet the
growing demand of milk would further increase the pressure on already over exploited natural
resources including water. To reduce the pressure on irrigation water there are three options. First:
by replacing a part of the low yielding bovine population (water intensive milk production) with high
milk yielding crossbred animals (water efficient milk production). Secondly country could import
foodgrains from the international market to meet the demand of cereal based feed requirement for
the livestock. This would reduce the pressure on irrigation water and land. Thirdly India can import
certain percentage of the total milk demand from the international market and remaining milk will
produce within the country. This would help in reducing the demand of irrigation water for milk
production.
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5.0
CURRENT FOOD DEMAND AND FUTURE PROJECTION
5.1
FOOD DEMAND FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) sets up Nutrition Advisory Committees/Expert
Groups which recommends the energy (in calories) requirements for men, women (including
requirements during pregnancy, and other maternity related requirements), and children. It also
recommends the compositions of proteins, fats, minerals, iron, and vitamins in the diet for various
age groups of population including infants, pregnant/nursing mothers, children etc. These
Committees/Expert Group also recommend weighted average per capita requirement for the
population of the country as a whole, to enable the policy-makers plan for production or
procurement of the required quantities of various foodstuffs (Bapna, 1993).
The ICMR Expert Group (1990) has concluded that on the basis of the present recommended
dietary allowance (RDA), should be 2200 Kcal/capita/day. As per 1984 report, recognizing that the
average per capita requirement of foodstuffs is one of the important considerations from the
practical point of view in estimating national food supplies. The recommended balanced diets are
presented in Table 5. In general total cereal requirement is 460 gram/capita/day. Total vegetable
requirement is 160 grams/capita/day. Out of this, share of green leafy vegetables, others vegetables
and roots and tubers vegetables are 50 gram, 60 gram and 50 grams/day/capita respectively. Per
capita per day total fish, meat and eggs requirement is 60 grams. Milk and milk product requirement
is 150 grams/capita/day. Per capita per day fruits and sugar requirements are 30 grams each.
5.2
Current Food Consumption Pattern in Rural & Urban Area
5.2.1 Cereal Consumption Pattern in Rural and Urban Area
National sample survey’s consumption data reveal that the annual per capita consumption of cereals
has been declining since the early seventies. Between 1987-88 and 2003, annual per capita cereal
consumption declined with a compound growth rate of -1.45% per annum in rural areas (Figure 5).
The cereal consumption in rural India declined from 175.25 kg/capita/annum in 1987-88 to 150.18
kg/capita/annum in 2003. Cereals include rice, wheat, jowar, bajra and maize. The average per
capita consumption of rice, wheat, jowar and bajra registering negative compound growth rate of 0.63%, -0.94%, -8.14%, and -3.76% per annum respectively during 1987-88 to 2003. The lowest
declining trend was found in case of rice consumption and highest in case of jowar. It may be due to
shifting food consumption pattern from millets to cereals i.e. from jowar to rice.
In urban India, annual per capita cereal consumption has been showing declining trend (Figure 6).
Average per capita cereal consumption in urban India fell from 136.30 kg per annum in 1987-88 to
120.48 kg in 2003. Per capita cereal consumption in urban India is declining with a compound
growth rate of -0.95% per annum during 1987-88 and 2003. Annual per capita consumption of rice,
wheat and jowar showing declining trend and it was declining with a compound growth rate of
-0.82%, -0.72%, and -4.08% respectively during 1987-88 to 2003. Average annual per capita
consumption of bajra in urban area showing positive growth trend and it was growing with a
compound growth rate of 1.52% during 1987-88 to 2003.
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Table 6 represents grouping of major Indian states according to declining annual cereal
consumption between 1993-94 and 2003. During the period 1993-94 and 2003, decline in cereal
consumption in rural areas was lowest in Uttar Pradesh with 2.80 kg/capita and highest in Haryana
with 33.35 kg/capita between 1993-94 and 2003. All India average cereal consumption declined with
by 12.90 kg/capita during the same period of time.
In urban areas, all the Indian major states and country as a whole registered declining trend in annual
per capita cereal consumption between 1993-94 and 2003 except Bihar and Punjab. Bihar and
Punjab registered positive growth in annual cereal consumption with 0.61 kg/capita and 1.58
kg/capita respectively (Table 6). State-wise average annual per capita cereal consumption is
presented in Annexure–3. The striking decline in cereal consumption is attributed to change in
consumer tests and preference towards non-cereal food items as income of the household increases.
This is due to the diversification of the food basket in the favour of superior non-cereal food
particularly milk and milk products, meat, vegetables and fruits etc. Declining in cereals
consumption not only observed in urban area but also in rural area during 1993-94 to 2003 (Table
6). The highest decline in cereal consumption was observed in rural areas of Haryana with a tune of
33.35 kg/capita between 1993-95 and 2003.
5.2.2 Food Consumption Pattern
The broad categories of food items provided by the National Sample Survey Organization includes
cereals, pulses and pulse products, milk and milk products, edible oils, egg, meat and fish, vegetables,
fruits and sugars (for details see NSSO, 1996 and 2001). The NSS provides consumption figure for
banana, orange, coconut and lemons in term of numbers. For the quantification of these food items,
we assumed that one banana, orange, coconut and lemon is equal to 100 grams, 100 grams, 150
grams and 30 grams respectively.
Table 7 represents per capita food consumption in rural and urban area during 1993-94 and 19992000. The rural persons are consuming more cereals as compare to urban population. The higher
per capita consumption of cereals in rural area is due to: [a] higher prices of non-food items; [b]
higher energy requirement due to heavy physical work; and [c] lower per capita cash income (in most
of the cases payment of the wages in kind by large farmers).
The cereal consumption in rural area was observed more for both 1993-94 and 1999-2000, whereas
other food items were consumed more by urban population during same period. However both
rural and urban population are reducing cereal consumption over the years and they are consuming
non-cereal food items viz., animal based food items, fruits and vegetables. In case of fruit, urban
populations are consuming double than the rural population. Table 7 suggest that, people gradually
shift from cereal to non-cereal food items as per capita income increases. State-wise per capita per
day food consumption in rural and urban area in 1999-2000 is presented in Table 8.
5.3
Future Food Demand Projection
5.3.1 Scenario 1: Well Fed India
The food requirement projection for the year 2025 and 2050 has been generated keeping in mind
that the entire population of India will have access to calorie requirements recommended by ICMR.
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The total requirement for 2025 and 2050 for cereals is likely to be 221.51million tonnes (mt) and
257.29 mt; for pulses and pulses based products 19.25 and 22.36 million tonnes; for milk and milk
products 72.23 and 83.91 million tonnes; for edible oils 9.64 million tonnes and 11.19 million
tonnes; for fish, meat and eggs 28.84 million tonnes and 33.56 million tonnes; for Vegetables 77.05
and 89.49 million tonnes; for fruits and nuts 14.42 and 16.78 million tonnes and for sugar and jaggery
requirement would be 14.42 and 16.78 million tonnes respectively.
The major state-wise food demand projections are presented in Table 9. Uttar Pradesh will have
highest food requirement while Haryana will have the least demand for foods products for both the
years 2025 and 2050.
In case of Uttar Pradesh (UP), total requirement for 2025 and 2050 for cereal is likely to be 49.01
and 74.02 million tonnes; for pulses 4.26 and 6.44 million tonnes; for edible oil 2.13 and 3.22 million
tonnes; for milk and milk product 15.98 and 24.14 million tonnes; for fish, meat and egg 6.40 and
9.66 million tonnes; for vegetable 17.05 and 25.74 million tonnes; for fruits 3.20 and 4.83 million
tonnes and for sugar 3.20 and 4.83 million tonnes respectively (Table 9). In case of Haryana, total
food requirement for 2025 and 2050 for cereal is likely to be 4.50 and 4.71 million tonnes; for pulses
0.39 and 0.41 million tonnes; for edible oil 0.20 and 0.21 million tonnes; for milk 1.47 and 1.54
million tonnes; for vegetable 1.56 and 1.64 million tonnes; for Fruits 0.29 and 0.31 million tonnes;
for meat, fish and egg 0.58 and 0.62 million tonnes; and for sugar 0.29 and 0.31 million tonnes
(Table 9).
5.3.2 Scenario 2: Current Level of Food Consumption
Under this scenario, we assumed that per capita food consumption in rural and urban would remain
constant and it would be same as in 1999-2000 (for details see section 4.2.2. and also NSSO, 2001).
Table 10 represents state-wise food demand projections for the period of 2025 and 2050 based on
this assumption.
Total demand of food for 2025 and 2050 for cereal is likely to be 194.48 million tonnes in 2025. Out
of this, largest share comes from the rice and wheat i.e. 90.57% and remaining 9.43% share comes in
the form of millets (Table 10). In 2050, total cereals requirement would be 226.09 million tonnes
and share of rice and wheat would be 90.87%. Total demand for pulses and pulse product is likely to
be 14.03 and 16.64 million tonnes; for milk and milk product 83.54 and 101.21 million tonnes; for
edible oils 8.46 and 9.95 million tonnes; for meat, egg and fish 6.75 and 7.50 million tonnes; for
vegetable 90.07 and 106.56 million tonnes; for fruits (fresh and dry) 11.12 and 13.40 million tonnes;
and for sugar 13.89 and 16.54 million tonnes respectively.
5.3.3 Scenario 3: Based on Expenditure Pattern on Food Items
Under this scenario, we collected state-wise long-term data on quantity and expenditure pattern on
different food items for rural and urban area from NSS reports. After getting data, we calculated
compound growth trend for expenditure and relative price of the food items and finally estimated
quantity of food items and we projected it for the period of 2025 and 2050. Under this scenario we
are capturing the changes in food consumption pattern in relation to the population growth, per
capita income and expenditure pattern and relative prices of food items etc.
11
Keeping the trend of expenditure and price of food items we made projections for food demand for
2025 and 2050. Total demand for 2025 and 2050 for cereal would be 204.79 and 326.82 million
tonnes respectively (Table 11). Out of the total cereal requirement, share of rice and wheat would be
121.57 and 74.74 million tonnes in 2025 and it will further increase to 186.27 and 122.28 million
tonnes in 2050 respectively. Total demand of pulses and pulse product for 2025 and 2050 is likely to
be 11.12 and 12.87 million tonnes; for milk and milk products 100.58 and 157.07 million tonnes; for
edible oil 19.02 and 40.89 million tonnes; for meat, egg and fish 10.36 and 19.21 million tonnes; for
vegetable 148.15 and 287.59 million tonnes; for fruits and nuts 31.41 and 183.19 million tonnes; and
for sugar and jaggery 12.05 and 13.88 million tonnes respectively. The reason of high demand of
edible oil may be due to increase in demand of meat, fish and eggs and vegetables.
5.4
Cereal Demand for Production of Animal Based Products
Poultry, fish and dairy sectors are the major consumers of the cereal based feed for production of
animal based produces viz. milk, meat, fish and eggs. Generally, dairy farmers are using balanced
cattle feed as concentrates and components of cattle feeds are normally by-products of the cereals
(rice bran, husk etc) and sugarcane i.e. molasses. It is assumed that livestock would highly rely on
crop by-products, household waste and open grazing. Bhalla et al. (1999) estimated the cereal
requirement for production of milk, meat and eggs and they considered 1.2 kg and 0.12 kg of cereal
based feed requirement for production of one kg of meet, eggs and milk respectively. For the
projection of cereal based feed requirement for 2025 and 2051, we used Bhalla et al. (1999)
assumptions. For the quantification of eggs, we assume that on an average weight of an egg is equal
to the 0.05 kg. Table 12 represents state-wise cereal based feed requirement for the production of
animal based products under different scenario for the period of 2025 and 2050.
Under the first scenario (well fed India) total cereal based feed requirement for production of milk,
meat and eggs would be 43.34 million tonnes during 2025. Out of this, feed requirement for
production of milk would be 20% (8.67 million tonnes) and remaining 80% (34.67 million tonnes)
feed would be required to produce meat, fish and egg (Table 12). In 2050, total cereal based feed
requirement would be 50.34 million tonnes to meet the demand of milk, meet, fish and eggs. Out of
total feed demand, 10.07 million tonnes would be used for the production of milk and 40.27 million
tonnes would be required for the production of meat, fish and egg.
Under the second scenario (current level of food consumption pattern) i.e. based on 1999-2000 level
of consumption pattern, total cereal based feed requirement would be 18.14 million tonnes during
2025. Out of this, share of feed requirement for milk and meat, egg and fish production would be
10.02 and 8.12 million tonnes respectively. During 2050, total feed requirement would be 21.15
million tonnes and share of feed requirement for the production of milk and meat, egg and fish
would be 12.15 and 9.00 million tonnes respectively (Table 12).
In third scenario (based on expenditure pattern on different food items), total feed requirement
would be 24.50 million tonnes during 2025 and it would further increased to 41.90 million tonnes
during 2050. Out of total cereal based feed requirement, the share of feed requirement for milk
production would be 12.07 million tonnes and 12.43 million tonnes feed would required for the
production of meat, fish and egg in 2025. In 2050, total feed requirement for production of milk and
meat, egg and fish would be 18.85 and 23.05 million tonnes respectively.
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5.5
Change in Livestock Feed Requirement
Change in livestock feeding pattern would increase/decrease the demand of feed and fodder
requirement and this will lead to increase/decrease in irrigation water demand for the production of
feed and fodder requirement. Again, if we import some quantity of milk from the international
market and rest of the demand will meet from the internal production, then demand of irrigation
water will reduce. If country will decide to achieve self sufficiency in milk production and there is no
import of milk and milk products from the global market.
Out of the total milk production in India, largest share comes from the buffalo and cow (crossbred
and indigenous) milk. Dairy farmers are keeping cattle in two conditions. First is the free grazing system
under whereby dairy farmers depend on the open grazing and by-products of the crop to meet the
demand of green and dry fodder. They also provide some amount of the cereal based feed.
Therefore, livestock are largely dependent on “Green water” which is taken in the form of green
fodder (natural grosses). Second condition is of stall feeding. In this case dairy farmers are growing water
intensive green fodder like alfalfa by using precious blue water throughout the year to feed livestock
and they also use by-products of the foodgrain crops as dry fodder and cereal based feed
(concentrates). Under this situation, milk production would become irrigation water intensive as
compared to first situation. Growing water efficient green fodder, and increasing proportion of high
milk yielding cattle (crossbred cow) can help in making milk production system water efficient (for
detail see Singh, 2004 and Singh et al. 2004).
5.6
Post Harvest Losses in Foodgrains, Vegetables and Fruits
Table 13 represents state-wise post harvest losses of cereals, pulses, vegetables and fruits during
2025 and 2050. As per assumptions made by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry
of Agriculture, government of India, the post harvest losses are 1.1% for rice production, 3.0% for
wheat production, 4.6% for coarse grains production and 2.2% for pulses (Kumar, 1998). The
wasted grains though not fit for the human consumption can be used to feed livestock. In case of
fruits and vegetables, losses are quite high due to its highly perishable nature reaching upto 20% of
the total production.
For the estimation of post harvest losses during 2025 and 2050, we used assumptions made by the
Directorate of Economics and Statistics. It is further assumed that the post harvest losses would be
same and continues for the period of 2025 and 2050. It is clearly depicted from the tables that more
post harvest losses means we should produce more than the actual demand of cereals, pulses,
vegetable and fruits. Kumar (1998) suggested that at least 50% of the total quantity of foodgrains
losses which is unfit for the human consumption due to inferior quality may be used for animal feed.
Under the scenario first, second and third, total cereals losses would be 4.36, 4.30 and 4.012 million
tonnes respectively in 2025 and 5.17, 5.11 and 6.596 million tonnes respectively in 2050. Total post
harvest losses of pulses would be 0.43, 0.33 and 0.245 million tonnes respectively in 2025 and to
0.49, 0.39 and 0.283 million tonnes in 2050 under the scenario–I, II and III respectively.
5.7
Aggregate Food Demand under Different Scenario
13
Table 14 represents total food demand for India in 2025 and 2050. This includes food demand for
human consumption, cereal demand for animal feed and post harvest losses. As per our projections
made for different foods items, total cereal requirement would be 269.21, 216.92 and 233.30 million
tonnes in scenario–I, II, and III respectively in 2025. Total pulses demand would be ranging
between 11.37 million tonnes (scenario–III) to 19.68 million tonnes (scenario–I) in 2025. Demand
of pulses and pulse products would be ranging between 83.91 million tonnes (scenario–I) and 157.07
million tonnes (scenario–III) in 2050. In 2025, total milk demand would be 72.23, 83.54 and 100.58
million tonnes under the scenario–I, II, and III respectively. Total edible requirement under the
scenario–I, II, and III would be 9.64, 8.46 and 19.02 million tonnes respectively in 2025. In 2025,
demand of meat, fish and eggs would be 28.84, 6.75 and 10.36 million tonnes under the scenario–I,
II, and III respectively. Total vegetable requirement would be 92.46, 108.08 and 177.78 million
tonnes under scenario–I, II, and III respectively. Total fruits demand under the scenario–I, II, and
III would be 17.30, 13.34 and 37.69 million tonnes respectively in 2025. Total sugar demand would
be 14.42, 13.89 and 12.05 million tonnes under the scenario–I, II, and III respectively in 2025.
In 2050, total cereal requirement would be 312.80, 252.35 and 375.34 million tonnes in scenario–I,
II, and III respectively. In 2050, total pulse and pulse product requirement would 22.85, 17.03 and
13.15 million tonnes under the scenario–I, II, and III respectively. As per our projection, demand of
milk in the country would be 83.91, 101.21 and 157.07 million tonnes in scenario–I, II, and III
respectively in 2050. Total demand for the edible oil would be 11.19, 9.95 and 40.89 million tonnes
in scenario–I, II, and III respectively in 2050. In 2050, total demand for meat, fish and eggs under
scenario–I, II, and III would be 33.56, 7.50 and 19.21 million tonnes respectively. The total
vegetable requirement would be 107.39, 127.87 and 345.11 million tonnes in scenario–I, II, and III
respectively in 2050. This includes 20% post harvest losses. Total fruits requirement under the
scenario–I, II, and III would be 20.14, 16.08 and 221.03 million tonnes respectively in 2050. Due to
larger share of vegetarian population to the total population, demand for milk, vegetables and fruits
would is likely to increase further with increase in per capita income. Total demand of sugar in the
country would be 16.78, 16.54 and 13.88 million tonnes under the scenario–I, II, and III respectively
in 2050.
As per the projection made by the GOI (1999), total foodgrain and feed demand would be 308 and
320 million tonnes under low and high demand in 2025 and it would further increased to 420 and
494 million tonnes respectively in 2050. This includes foodgrain demand for human consumption,
seed, cereal based feed for livestock consumption and wastage of foodgrains. If we assume that 1%
of the total cereal demand would be required for seed, then total demand for foodgrains would
range between 263.71 (scenario–II) and 328.38 million tonnes (scenario–I) in 2025. In 2050, total
demand for foodgrains would be around 307.26 million tonnes (scenario–II) and 472.32 million
tonnes (scenario–III). Our projections of foodgrain demand are closer to the GOI (1999:52)
foodgrain demand projections.
6.0
ASSESSMENT OF WATER REQUIREMENT FOR FOOD PRODUCTION BASED ON
FOOD DEMAND
For the estimation of water requirement for food production, we assumed that all the food demand
will be made available from the irrigated crop production. For the estimation of crop water
requirement, we used CROPWAT model which is developed by the Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO). We estimated crop water requirement for each food crops for agro-climatic
14
sub-zones of major Indian states. We assumed that 10% of the total crop water requirement is lost
during from source of irrigation to crop field. Therefore, we added 10% of the total irrigation water
requirement of the crop to get gross crop water requirement. After getting agro-climatic sub-zone
wise crop water requirement, we average it for state as a whole. We obtained state-wise crop yield at
the state level from the http://www.indiastat.com. Based on crop yield and total crop water
requirement we estimated applied water productivity and finally total irrigation water demand for
2025 and 2050. Based on this, we estimated irrigation water requirement for food production based
on demand driven approach for the period of 2025 and 2050.
6.1
Agricultural Water Requirement
In this section we try to quantify the total irrigation water requirement for the production of food
items under the different scenarios for the period of 2025 and 2050 (see section 4). For the
estimation of irrigation water demand we assume that [a] paddy contains about 65% of the rice; [b]
sugarcane contain about 10% of the sugar; and [c] oilseeds contains about 40% oil. We further
assumed that the farmers would supply that much of irrigation water which is sufficient to meet the
crop ET requirement except in case of paddy. In general, paddy is grown under the standing water
and farmers are maintaining certain depth of water in paddy field. Out of total irrigation water
applied to the paddy field, some portion of the water being used by crop in the form of transpiration
(physical process), some part of the applied water is evaporate from the surface of the water as nonbeneficial use. A larger part of the applied water is deep percolate and return back to the
groundwater system depending on the characteristics of aquifer and groundwater depth.
6.1.1 Water Requirement for Food Production
A.
Scenario–I (Well Fed India)
Under the scenario–I (well fed India) total irrigation water requirement for the production of cereals
would be 838.34 BCM in 2025 (Table 15). Out of this about 78.85% (661.52 BCM) of the irrigation
water would be used for the production of rice and remaining 21.15% irrigation water will be used
for the production of wheat and millets. The irrigation water requirement for the pulses would be
104.83 BCM in 2025. Total irrigation water required for production of edible oils and sugar is likely
to be 95.45 and 68.86 BCM respectively in 2025.
In 2050, total irrigation water requirement would be 958.35 BCM for the production of rice, wheat
and millets. Out of the total irrigation water requirement for the foodgrain production, rice would
take about 78.33% (750.67 BCM). The irrigation water requirement for the production of wheat is
about 18.07% (173.20 BCM) of the total irrigation water requirement for foodgrain production and
remaining 3.6% (34.49 BCM) would be used for the production of millets during 2050. Total
irrigation water requirement for the production of pulses would be 117.50 BCM. Production of
edible oils and sugar would require 110.94 and 77.14 BCM respectively in 2050.
State-wise analysis shows that, Bihar requires highest irrigation water for the production of
foodgrains to meet the projected demand of foodgrains for 2025 followed by UP and Maharashtra.
In 2050, UP requires highest irrigation water for the production of foodgrains to meet the demand
of foodgrains in 2050 followed by Bihar and Maharashtra. The lowest demand of irrigation water for
the production of foodgrains is observed for Punjab and Haryana during 2025 and 2050. Highest
15
irrigation water requirement for pulses production was observed in UP and lowest in Punjab during
2025 and 2050. In case of edible oil, the lowest demand for irrigation water would observed in
Haryana and highest in UP during 2025 and 2050.
B.
Scenario–II (based on 1999-00 level of food consumption)
State-wise total irrigation water requirement under scenario–II is presented in Table 16. Total
irrigation water requirement for production of foodgrain would be 677.79 and 764.66 BCM during
2025 and 2050 respectively. Out of the total irrigation water requirement for the production of
foodgrains in India, about 72.62% would be used for the production of rice and remaining 27.38%
for the production of wheat (19.88%) and millets (7.50%) during 2025. Out of the total irrigation
water requirement in 2050, share of irrigation water requirement for paddy, wheat and millets
production would be 71.44%, 21.35% and 7.21% respectively in 2050. Irrigation water requirement
for the production of pulses would be 77.20 and 87.87 BCM for 2025 and 2050 respectively (Table
16). In 2025 and 2050, total irrigation water requirement for the production of edible oil for the
country would be 83.47 and 98.18 BCM respectively. Total irrigation water requires to produce the
sugar to meet the country demand would be 67.21 and 77.18 BCM during 2025 and 2050
respectively.
State-wise analysis of irrigation water requirement for the production of food items under the
scenario–II is presented in Table 16. Highest irrigation water requirement for foodgrain production
would be in Bihar with 145.23 BCM and lowest in Haryana with 2.73 BCM in 2025. In 2050, the
irrigation water requirement for production of foodgrain would be in the range of 163.26 BCM for
UP and 2.73 BCM for Punjab. For pulses, the highest irrigation water requirement would be
observed in UP and lowest in Assam for both 2025 and 2050. UP would require maximum irrigation
water for the production of edible oils and Orissa would be placed at the bottom of the major states
for requirement of irrigation water for oilseed production during 2025 and 2050. Maharashtra would
need maximum irrigation water requirement for sugarcane production. Least irrigation water
requirement for production of sugar would be felt in Orissa.
C.
Scenario–III (Based on Expenditure Pattern)
Table 17 showed the state-wise irrigation water requirement for crop production to meet the
demand of food during 2025 and 2050. Total irrigation water requirement for foodgrain production
would be 783.44 and 1234.42 BCM in 2025 and 2050 respectively. Out of the total irrigation water
requirement for foodgrain production, about 79.12% irrigation water would be required to meet the
demand of rice in 2025. Remaining 20.88% irrigation water would be use for the production of
wheat and millets (Table 17). Out of the total irrigation water requirement for the period of 2050,
about 76.50% of irrigation water would be consumed for paddy production to meet the demand in
2050. Remaining 23.50% irrigation water would be used for the production of wheat and millet to
meet the demand in 2050. Total irrigation water requirement for the production of pulses would be
62.7 BCM and 72.86 BCM in 2025 and 2050 respectively. For the production of edible oil, total
irrigation water requirement would be 185.40 BCM and 395.35 BCM during 2025 and 2050
respectively. In 2025 and 2050, total irrigation water requirement for the production of sugarcane
would be 62.53 and 73.44 BCM to meet the demand of sugar in the country.
16
State-wise analysis shows that highest irrigation water requirement for the production of foodgrain
would be observed in Bihar with 137.47 BCM and lowest in Haryana with 5.05 BCM during 2025.
In 2050, total irrigation water requirement for the production of foodgrain is highest with 233.58
BCM in UP and lowest 6.36 BCM in Haryana. Water requirement for pulses production would be
highest with 9.05 BCM and lowest with 11.39 BCM in Maharashtra during 2025 and 2050, whereas
lowest demand in Punjab with 0.91 BCM and 0.79 BCM respectively. Water requirement for
production of edible oil would be highest in UP for both 2025 and 2050 and lowest in Orissa in
2025 and in Kerala in 2050. Irrigation water requirement for the production of sugar would be
highest in Maharashtra and lowest in Orissa during 2025 and 2050.
6.2
Water Requirement for Animal Products
6.2.1 Water Requirement for Production of Milk and Milk Product
Under the first scenario viz. free grazing, we considered 1.2 kg of cereal requirement for one kg of
meat, fish and egg production and 0.12 kg cereal based feed requirement for one kg of milk
production. Under the second scenario viz. stall feeding, we considered cereal based feed requirement
is as much as in first scenario plus irrigation water use for the production of green fodder.
Therefore, milk production under the first scenario is less irrigation water intensive and compare to
the second scenario.
Irrigation water requirement for milk production based on the free grazing and stall feeding are
presented in Table 18. In case of scenario-I (well fed India), total irrigation water requirement for
cereal based feed production would be 19.93 and 22.40 BCM during 2025 and 2050 respectively to
meet the demand of milk and milk products. Total irrigation water requirement for cereal based feed
production would be 24.82 and 29.22 BCM to meet the demand of milk and milk products during
2025 and 2050 respectively under the scenario-II (1999-2000 level of food consumption pattern).
During 2025 and 2050, total irrigation water requirement would be 30.33 and 47.53 BCM
respectively for production of cereal based feed demand under the scenario-III (based on
expenditure pattern).
Under scenario-II i.e. stall feeding, dairying farmers are feeding green, dry fodder and concentrates to
livestock for milk production. Normally dry fodders are by-products of food crops like wheat,
paddy, jowar, bajra and maize. Framers grow green fodder, especially to feed their cattle. In case of
concentrate, farmers use by-products of foodgrain as concentrate. Sometimes farmers are using
wheat, bajra grain to feed livestock (for detail see Singh et al. 2004). For estimating water required to
produce a litter of milk, we considered that volume of water which is used for the production of
green fodder and concentrate. On an average 2.05 m3 of water is required to produce a litter of milk.
We assumed that, 2.05m3 of irrigation water would be needed to produce a litter of milk in all the
major states (see Singh et al. 2004).
If dairy farming shifts from free grazing to stall feeding then irrigation water requirement for milk
production would be higher as compared to free grazing based milk production. Table 18 provides
irrigation water requirement for milk production under stall feeding. Total irrigation water
requirement under the first scenario is likely to be 147.78 and 171.66 BCM; for scenario second
170.93 and 207.09 BCM and for scenario third 205.80 and 321.37 BCM respectively in the form of
green fodder and concentrate to meet the total demand of milk and milk production.
17
6.2.2 Water Requirement for Meat, Fish, and Eggs Production
Table 19 represents irrigation water requirement for the production of meat, fish and egg under
different scenarios. In case of fish farming, it requires lot of water, but here we are considering only
feed equivalent irrigation water. Here we assumed that production of one kg meat, fish and egg
requires 1.2 kg of cereal based feed.
As per our estimate made for irrigation water requirement for the production of cereal based feed
for 2025 and 2050 is likely to be 79.73 and 89.63 BCM under the scenario– I (well fed India); 20.09
and 21.55 BCM under the scenario–II; and 29.09 and 50.46 BCB under scenario–III respectively
(Table 19).
6.3
Aggregate Water Requirement for Food Production
Table 20 represents the irrigation water requirement for the production of food items to meet the
projected food demand under different scenarios during 2025 and 2050.
As per our estimate, in 2025, total irrigation water requirement for the production of foodgrains
under scenario–I, II and III is likely to be 838.94, 677.79 and 783.44 BCM respectively. Out of this,
share of water requirement for the production of rice would be 78.85%, 72.62% and 79.12% for
scenario–I, II and III respectively and remaining water use for the production of wheat and millets.
In 2025, under scenario–I, II and III, total irrigation water requirement for the production of pulses
would be 104.83, 77.20 and 62.70 BCM; for edible oil 95.45, 83.47 and 185.40; for sugar 68.86, 67.21
and 62.53 BCM; for cereal based feed demand 19.93, 24.82 and 30.33 BCM; for stall feeding system
of milk production 147.78, 170.93 and 205.09 and for cereal based feed for the production of meat,
fish and eggs to meet 79.73, 20.09 and 29.03 BCM respectively (Table 20).
Under the scenario–I, II and III, in 2050, total irrigation water requirement for the production of
foodgrains would be 958.35, 764.66 and 1234.42 BCM (Table 20). Out of total irrigation water
requirement for the foodgrain production, about 78.33%, 71.44% and 76.50% would be used for the
production of rice in the country. Remaining irrigation water would be used for the production of
wheat and millets. Under scenario–I, II and III, total irrigation water requirement for the production
of pulses and pulse product would be 117.50, 87.87 and 72.86 BCM; for edible oils 110.94, 98.18
and 395.35 BCM; for sugar 77.14, 77.18 and 73.44 BCM; for cereal based feed demand under the
free grazing system 22.40, 29.22 and 47.53 BCM; for milk production under the stall feeding system
171.66, 207.09 and 321.37 BCM respectively. Total irrigation water requirement for the production
cereal based feed demand for meat, fish and eggs would be 89.63, 21.55 and 50.46 BCM under the
scenario–I, II and III respectively.
Normally paddy is cultivated under the standing water. Out of the total applied irrigation water, only
a small portion is being consumed by the plant for physiological process i.e. know as beneficial ET
and some part of the irrigation water is used in the form of non-beneficial ET from the uncovered
paddy field and larger portion of the applied water returns to the groundwater system depending on
the depth and characteristics of the aquifer. Normally farmers are growing oilseeds and pulses under
rainfed condition and crops are utilizing green water to meet the ET requirement. Some times
farmers provide one or two irrigation.
18
7.0
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Food demand projection highly depends on the growth in population, rate of urbanisation, growth
of per capita income, test and preferences. As per projection made by Mahmood and Kundu (2006)
population of the country would be 1319.31 and 1532.34 million in 2025 and 2050 respectively. Out
of this, about 34% and 39% populations would be live in urban area in 2025 and 2050 respectively.
Per capita NSDP at constant price (at 1980-81 prices) is growing with a compound growth rate of
3.09% per annum during 1980-81 to 1997-98 at country level. The highest growth was observed in
Maharashtra and lowest in Bihar during the same period of time.
The long term NSS data on food consumption pattern suggests that there has been decline in per
capita cereal consumption since early 1970. The highest decline is accounted for the coarse cereals,
but consumption of superior cereals viz., rice and wheat has remained fairly stable during the period.
Between 1987-88 and 2003, annual per capita cereal consumption declined by a compound growth
rate of -1.45% per annum in rural area and the corresponding figure for urban India is -0.95% per
annum during same period of time. The reasons for negative growth in per capita cereal
consumption are partly explained by the wide selection of food items and change in the lifestyle of
the peoples.
Fast growth of human population in the country leads demand of food items especially rice and
wheat. This would increase the demand of irrigation water and land. To reduce the demand of
irrigation water, government may change their policy from self reliance to virtual water import in the
form of foodgrain from the international market. This would increase the India’s balance of
payment.
Rapid economic growth, along with shifts in consumption patterns leads demand of livestock
products i.e. milk, meat, fish and eggs. Currently per capita consumption of meat, fish and eggs are
very low. Increase in the demand of meat, egg and fish would further in crease the demand for
cereal base feed and finally irrigation water demand. Due to increase in demand of Fish, farmers may
convert some farm land into fish pond and they use irrigation water to fill the fish pond, resulting
further increase in irrigation water.
Due to increase in demand of milk production, dairy farmers may shift from free grazing system of
milk production to stall feeding of milk production would further leads demand of irrigation water,
because dairy farmers are growing water intensive green fodder. Therefore, it is required to produce
less water intensive milk by using water efficient green fodder with high yielding variety of cattle viz.,
crossbred cow. To reduce the pressure on irrigation water for milk production there are three
options. First: by replacing a part of the low yielding bovine population (water intensive milk
production) with high milk yielding crossbred animals (water efficient milk production). Secondly
country would import foodgrains from the international market to meet the demand of cereal based
feed requirement of the livestock. This would reduce the pressure on irrigation water and land.
Thirdly India would import some portion of the total milk demand from the international market and
remaining milk will be produce within the country. This would help in reducing the demand of
irrigation water requirement for milk production.
19
The post harvested losses of the fruits and vegetables are very high i.e. about 20% of the production
due to perishable in nature. Therefore, it required to minimise the post harvest losses by introducing
appropriate cold storage facility etc., this would save the lot of the irrigation water.
References
Bansil, P. S. (1999) Demand for Foodgrains by 2020 AD, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
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Table 1: Population Projections by Different Scholars and Agencies
Author(s)
Population Projection (Million)
2020
2025
1331
1301
2010
1175
1183.1
Bhatt (2001)
Natrajan (1993)
United Nations (1994)
a. Low variant
b. Middle variant
c. High variant
GOI (1996)
Visaria and Visaria (1996)
Kumar (1998)
Bhalla et al. (1999)
Bansil (1999)
Dyson and Hanchate (2000)
Mahmood and Kundu (2006)
1156.6
1189
1221.7
1162
1146
-
1249.7
1327.1
1406.1
1421
1329
1360
1315
2050
1286.3
1392
1501.5
1345.9
1640
1980
1333
1581
1319.31
1532.34
Table 2: Major State-wise Population Projects (Million)
Name of the Major
States
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar*
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh*
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh*
West Bengal
India
Population (Million)
2001
75.73
26.64
109.79
50.60
21.08
52.73
31.84
96.75
80.89
36.71
24.29
56.51
62.11
174.53
80.22
980.42
2025
88.70
34.41
156.37
62.52
26.78
64.37
36.82
116.26
116.04
43.84
28.65
85.88
70.53
291.91
96.22
1319.31
2050
86.96
37.31
176.44
64.22
28.05
64.72
35.91
117.14
131.81
43.73
28.09
113.90
67.76
440.83
95.46
1532.34
*: Undivided states
Source: Mahmood and Kundu (2006)
24
Contribution to India’s total Population
(%)
2001
2025
2050
7.72
6.72
5.67
2.72
2.61
2.43
11.20
11.85
11.51
5.16
4.74
4.19
2.15
2.03
1.83
5.38
4.88
4.22
3.25
2.79
2.34
9.87
8.81
7.64
8.25
8.80
8.60
3.74
3.32
2.85
2.48
2.17
1.83
5.76
6.51
7.43
6.34
5.35
4.42
17.80
22.13
28.77
8.18
7.29
6.23
100.00
100.00
100.00
Table 3: Projected Urban and Rural Population of India
Name of the major
State
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
Total Population (million)
2001
2025
2050
75.728
88.701
86.960
26.638
34.413
37.308
109.788 156.368 176.445
50.597
62.521
64.215
21.083
26.784
28.049
52.734
64.369
64.721
31.839
36.823
35.906
96.752 116.263 117.144
80.889 116.037 131.815
36.707
43.839
43.733
24.289
28.648
28.091
56.507
85.884 113.899
62.111
70.526
67.761
174.532 291.913 440.831
80.221
96.221
95.463
980.417 1319.312 1532.342
Urban Population (%)
2001
2025
2050
27.08 33.74 38.14
12.72 19.38 23.78
13.36 20.02 24.42
37.35 44.01 48.41
29.00 35.66 40.06
33.98 40.64 45.04
25.97 32.63 37.03
24.98 31.64 36.04
42.40 49.06 53.46
14.97 21.63 26.03
33.95 40.61 45.01
23.38 30.04 34.44
43.86 50.52 54.92
21.02 27.68 32.08
28.03 34.69 39.09
27.78 34.44 38.84
Rural Population (%)
2001
2025
2050
72.92 66.26 61.86
87.28 80.62 76.22
86.64 79.98 75.58
62.65 55.99 51.59
71.00 64.34 59.94
66.02 59.36 54.96
74.03 67.37 62.97
75.02 68.36 63.96
57.60 50.94 46.54
85.03 78.37 73.97
66.05 59.39 54.99
76.62 69.96 65.56
56.14 49.48 45.08
78.98 72.32 67.92
71.97 65.31 60.91
72.22 65.56 61.16
Table 4: Average per Capita Expenditure on Cereals, India (Rs/Annum)
Year
Rural
Urban
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Rice
Wheat
Jowar
Bajra
Maize
529.40
629.55
635.15
674.22
761.23
743.83
747.85
464.89
582.70
601.93
635.40
711.70
674.70
699.41
222.71
247.29
324.09
305.22
365.83
335.65
379.46
288.43
336.99
406.84
415.12
473.78
468.06
498.60
30.43
42.84
40.77
39.31
27.63
31.89
33.47
18.26
24.10
19.47
24.46
23.12
28.11
22.15
20.69
25.92
26.29
20.20
24.10
21.91
26.53
6.09
5.60
8.88
5.23
8.52
10.10
9.74
14.60
16.79
14.73
12.17
15.82
18.26
19.59
1.22
1.22
2.56
1.46
2.80
3.04
3.16
Other
Cereals
10.95
13.87
11.56
10.22
11.56
10.34
12.41
3.65
5.35
4.26
2.92
5.23
5.72
7.67
Total
Cereals
828.78
976.16
1052.46
1061.35
1206.29
1161.87
1219.31
782.53
956.08
1043.82
1084.47
1225.15
1189.86
1240.73
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, and 2005).
Table 5: Recommended Balanced Diets (day/capita)
Food groups
Cereals
Pulses
Green leafy vegetables
Other vegetable
Roots & Tubers
Fat and Oils
Recommended Dietary
Allowance (gram)
460
40
50
60
50
20
Food groups
Fish
Meat and Poultry
Milk
Fruits
Sugar & Jaggery
Source: Rao et al. (2003:27)
25
Recommended Dietary
Allowance (gram)
30
30
150
30
30
Table 6: Classification of Major States According to Annual Decline in Cereal Consumption
during 1993-94 to 2003 (kg/capita)
Declining in total cereal Name of the Major States
consumption
Rural Area
1.0 to 10.0
Uttar Pradesh (2.80), Assam (3.51), Kerala (4.99), Maharashtra (7.06), Bihar (7.30)
and Punjab (7.30)
11.0 to 20.0
All India (12.90), Gujarat (13.75), Andhra Pradesh (14.36), Orissa (15.46), Tamil
Nadu (17.89), and West Bengal (18.62)
21.0 to 30.0
Madhya Pradesh (24.46), Rajasthan (24.83), and Karnataka (26.04)
31.0 and above
Haryana (33.35)
Urban Area
1.0 to 10.00
Assam (4.50), Uttar Pradesh (5.11), Orissa (7.18) Kerala (8.40), All India (8.52),
Maharashtra (8.88), Andhra Pradesh (9.13), and Gujarat (9.98)
11.0 to 20.0
Tamil Nadu (10.22), Madhya Pradesh (13.51), Rajasthan (14.60), Karnataka (14.73),
Haryana (15.33), and West Bengal (15.70)
Positive Growth
Bihar (0.61), and Punjab (1.58)
Figures in parenthesis represents decline in cereal consumption per capita per annum
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003 and 2005)
Table 7: Food Consumption in Rural and Urban India, (kg/capita/day)
Food Items
Paddy
Wheat
Total cereals
Pulses and pulse product
Milk and milk product*
Total edible oils
Total fish, meat and Egg
Total vegetables
Total fruits
Total sugar
1993-94
1999-2000
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
0.226
0.138
0.364
0.022
0.138
0.011
0.011
0.102
0.013
0.026
0.171
0.143
0.314
0.026
0.196
0.017
0.016
0.113
0.026
0.032
0.225
0.150
0.424
0.028
0.146
0.017
0.014
0.179
0.018
0.028
0.174
0.159
0.347
0.233
0.233
0.024
0.019
0.197
0.037
0.033
*: All milk products are converted into liquid milk
Source: based on data provided in NSSO (1996) and (2001)
26
Table 8: State-wise Food Consumption in Rural and Urban Area during 1999-2000
(Kg/Capita/Day)
Name of the Major
States
Rice
Cereals
Wheat Total
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
0.393
0.398
0.263
0.069
0.033
0.179
0.296
0.181
0.104
0.472
0.023
0.007
0.327
0.143
0.415
0.225
0.006
0.019
0.174
0.120
0.331
0.034
0.032
0.207
0.116
0.018
0.318
0.326
0.011
0.297
0.035
0.150
0.422
0.421
0.458
0.340
0.379
0.384
0.330
0.431
0.377
0.503
0.353
0.473
0.355
0.454
0.453
0.424
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
0.329
0.364
0.219
0.067
0.039
0.207
0.266
0.114
0.114
0.406
0.036
0.017
0.289
0.095
0.279
0.174
0.027
0.043
0.201
0.180
0.269
0.055
0.041
0.246
0.160
0.075
0.266
0.349
0.029
0.262
0.093
0.159
0.365
0.409
0.423
0.283
0.312
0.340
0.308
0.370
0.312
0.484
0.307
0.385
0.322
0.360
0.372
0.347
Total Milk &
Pulses Milk
Product
Rural
0.024 0.098
0.017 0.038
0.026 0.091
0.031 0.248
0.034 0.563
0.034 0.124
0.018 0.099
0.029 0.130
0.033 0.095
0.015 0.023
0.035 0.451
0.022 0.387
0.028 0.080
0.036 0.164
0.015 0.044
0.028 0.146
Urban
0.029 0.164
0.025 0.189
0.031 0.128
0.034 0.363
0.035 0.417
0.035 0.200
0.023 0.125
0.033 0.191
0.034 0.188
0.025 0.075
0.039 0.400
0.032 0.447
0.034 0.189
0.033 0.242
0.020 0.158
0.033 0.233
Source: Based on data provided in NSSO (2001)
27
Edible Egg, Vegetable Fruits Sugar
Oils Meat &
& Nuts
Fish
0.015
0.012
0.013
0.027
0.013
0.015
0.014
0.014
0.020
0.009
0.019
0.014
0.014
0.017
0.014
0.017
0.018
0.027
0.008
0.003
0.001
0.013
0.071
0.004
0.009
0.013
0.003
0.003
0.017
0.008
0.030
0.014
0.133
0.193
0.230
0.159
0.176
0.124
0.123
0.151
0.112
0.201
0.216
0.124
0.129
0.213
0.264
0.179
0.018
0.009
0.010
0.016
0.022
0.031
0.044
0.010
0.026
0.008
0.019
0.008
0.023
0.022
0.007
0.018
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.039
0.067
0.029
0.028
0.027
0.036
0.013
0.068
0.039
0.018
0.032
0.016
0.028
0.020
0.018
0.017
0.035
0.021
0.020
0.015
0.021
0.028
0.014
0.022
0.021
0.019
0.020
0.023
0.024
0.017
0.039
0.013
0.006
0.004
0.019
0.079
0.008
0.018
0.021
0.005
0.005
0.024
0.011
0.045
0.019
0.148
0.208
0.234
0.187
0.190
0.147
0.110
0.202
0.161
0.250
0.222
0.170
0.168
0.234
0.288
0.197
0.036
0.025
0.023
0.035
0.036
0.037
0.052
0.031
0.041
0.020
0.035
0.035
0.040
0.038
0.028
0.037
0.022
0.021
0.022
0.039
0.050
0.032
0.029
0.034
0.038
0.022
0.054
0.039
0.025
0.035
0.023
0.033
Table 9: State-wise Projection for Food Demand for 2025 and 2050 (Million tonnes)
Name of the States
Rice
Cereals
Wheat
Pulses
Total
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
13.70
5.38
16.80
4.20
1.13
7.24
5.50
9.17
9.35
6.55
1.20
2.60
11.01
20.58
14.06
128.47
1.04
0.40
9.45
4.62
3.38
1.41
0.68
9.96
6.62
0.81
3.61
10.24
0.83
28.43
2.10
83.58
14.89
5.78
26.25
10.50
4.50
10.81
6.18
19.52
19.48
7.36
4.81
14.42
11.84
49.01
16.16
221.51
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
13.43
1.02
14.60
5.82
0.44
6.26
18.96 10.67 29.63
4.31
4.74
10.78
1.18
3.53
4.71
7.28
1.41
10.87
5.37
0.66
6.03
9.24
10.03 19.67
10.62
7.52
22.13
6.53
0.81
7.34
1.18
3.54
4.72
3.44
13.58 19.12
10.58
0.80
11.38
31.09 42.93 74.02
13.95
2.08
16.03
142.98 103.76 257.29
2025
1.30
0.50
2.28
0.91
0.39
0.94
0.54
1.70
1.69
0.64
0.42
1.25
1.03
4.26
1.40
19.25
2050
1.27
0.54
2.58
0.94
0.41
0.94
0.52
1.71
1.92
0.64
0.41
1.66
0.99
6.44
1.39
22.36
28
Milk
Oil &
Fat
Meat,
fish &
Eggs
Vegetables
Fruits
Sugar
&
Jaggery
4.86
1.88
8.56
3.42
1.47
3.52
2.02
6.37
6.35
2.40
1.57
4.70
3.86
15.98
5.27
72.23
0.65
0.25
1.14
0.46
0.20
0.47
0.27
0.85
0.85
0.32
0.21
0.63
0.51
2.13
0.70
9.64
1.94
0.76
3.42
1.36
0.58
1.40
0.80
2.54
2.54
0.96
0.62
1.88
1.54
6.40
2.10
28.84
5.18
2.01
9.13
3.65
1.56
3.76
2.15
6.79
6.78
2.56
1.67
5.02
4.12
17.05
5.62
77.05
0.97
0.38
1.71
0.68
0.29
0.70
0.40
1.27
1.27
0.48
0.31
0.94
0.77
3.20
1.05
14.42
0.97
0.38
1.71
0.68
0.29
0.70
0.40
1.27
1.27
0.48
0.31
0.94
0.77
3.20
1.05
14.42
4.76
2.04
9.66
3.52
1.54
3.54
1.97
6.41
7.22
2.39
1.54
6.24
3.71
24.14
5.23
83.91
0.63
0.27
1.29
0.47
0.21
0.47
0.26
0.86
0.96
0.32
0.21
0.83
0.49
3.22
0.70
11.19
1.90
0.82
3.86
1.40
0.62
1.42
0.78
2.56
2.88
0.96
0.62
2.50
1.48
9.66
2.10
33.56
5.08
2.18
10.30
3.75
1.64
3.78
2.10
6.84
7.70
2.55
1.64
6.65
3.96
25.74
5.58
89.49
0.95
0.41
1.93
0.70
0.31
0.71
0.39
1.28
1.44
0.48
0.31
1.25
0.74
4.83
1.05
16.78
0.95
0.41
1.93
0.70
0.31
0.71
0.39
1.28
1.44
0.48
0.31
1.25
0.74
4.83
1.05
16.78
Table 10: Food Demand Projections for 2025 and 2051 (Million Tonnes)
Name of the
major States
Cereals
Wheat
Pulse & Milk & Edible Meet, Vegetable Fruits Sugar &
products
products* oils
Egg &
& nuts Jaggery
Rice
Total
Fish
2025
Andhra P.
12.03
0.43
13.03
0.84
3.89
0.55
0.56
4.47
0.79
0.59
Assam
4.91
0.30
5.26
0.23
0.85
0.16
0.37
2.46
0.15
0.21
Bihar
14.52 10.23 25.77
1.54
5.62
0.81
0.50
13.16
0.74
0.92
Gujarat
1.55
3.34
7.18
0.74
6.82
0.70
0.10
3.91
0.56
0.88
Haryana
0.34
3.02
3.47
0.33
4.99
0.16
0.02
1.77
0.26
0.59
Karnataka
4.48
0.99
8.61
0.80
3.65
0.39
0.37
3.12
0.78
0.71
Kerala
3.85
0.47
4.34
0.27
1.45
0.19
0.99
1.59
0.63
0.39
M. P.
6.79
9.30
17.48
1.29
6.35
0.70
0.21
7.10
0.70
1.25
Maharashtra
4.62
5.83
14.62
1.43
5.96
1.01
0.57
5.76
1.42
1.57
Orissa
7.32
0.48
7.98
0.28
0.55
0.16
0.24
3.39
0.17
0.24
Punjab
0.30
3.11
3.49
0.39
4.50
0.21
0.04
2.28
0.27
0.65
Rajasthan
0.32
10.45 14.01
0.79
12.71
0.51
0.10
4.32
0.50
1.22
Tamil Nadu
7.93
0.52
8.71
0.79
3.47
0.43
0.53
3.82
0.81
0.55
Uttar Pradesh
13.81 30.65 45.60
3.71
19.79
1.87
0.92
23.35
2.83
3.48
West Bengal
12.93
1.93
14.93
0.60
2.94
0.61
1.23
9.57
0.51
0.64
India Total
95.70 81.05 194.48 14.03
83.54
8.46
6.75
90.07
11.12 13.89
2050
Andhra P.
11.70
0.46
12.70
0.83
3.90
0.54
0.55
4.40
0.80
0.59
Assam
5.31
0.34
5.69
0.26
1.01
0.18
0.41
2.68
0.17
0.23
Bihar
16.26 11.62 28.98
1.75
6.45
0.92
0.58
14.86
0.87
1.07
Gujarat
1.59
3.49
7.32
0.76
7.12
0.73
0.11
4.04
0.59
0.91
Haryana
0.36
3.13
3.61
0.35
5.16
0.17
0.02
1.86
0.28
0.62
Karnataka
4.53
1.02
8.61
0.81
3.75
0.40
0.38
3.16
0.79
0.72
Kerala
3.74
0.46
4.22
0.26
1.43
0.19
0.97
1.55
0.62
0.38
M. P.
6.72
9.45
17.50
1.31
6.51
0.72
0.22
7.25
0.75
1.27
Maharashtra
5.27
6.71
16.47
1.62
6.96
1.16
0.67
6.65
1.65
1.79
Orissa
7.26
0.52
7.95
0.28
0.58
0.16
0.24
3.41
0.18
0.24
Punjab
0.30
3.02
3.41
0.38
4.39
0.21
0.04
2.24
0.27
0.63
Rajasthan
0.44
13.90 18.41
1.07
16.96
0.69
0.14
5.82
0.71
1.62
Tamil Nadu
7.57
0.52
8.33
0.77
3.46
0.42
0.52
3.71
0.79
0.54
Uttar Pradesh
20.52 46.03 68.20
5.59
30.44
2.85
1.41
35.40
4.39
5.29
West Bengal
12.62
2.00
14.69
0.60
3.09
0.61
1.24
9.53
0.54
0.64
India Total
104.19 102.67 226.09 16.64
101.21
9.95
7.50
106.56 13.40 16.54
*: All the milk products converted to liquid milk
29
Table 11: Food Demand Projections for 2025 and 2051 (Million Tonnes)
Name of the
major States
Cereals
Wheat
Pulse & Milk & Edible Meet, Vegetable Fruits Sugar &
products
products* oils
Egg &
& nuts Jaggery
Rice
Total
Fish
2025
Andhra P.
14.89
1.13
16.19
0.61
4.09
1.37
1.07
9.73
1.77
0.50
Assam
11.11
1.08
11.95
0.24
1.63
0.42
0.82
8.87
0.63
0.23
Bihar
14.30
8.04
22.34
1.15
7.27
1.83
0.60
8.37
4.80
0.92
Gujarat
4.29
4.72
10.73
0.53
8.87
1.30
0.18
6.57
0.66
0.71
Haryana
0.87
2.65
3.49
0.37
4.86
0.24
0.06
2.72
0.35
0.36
Karnataka
7.55
1.46
11.26
0.66
4.44
1.10
0.37
5.55
1.23
0.59
Kerala
5.44
0.73
6.11
0.31
1.50
0.37
1.32
4.05
0.58
0.45
M. P.
5.28
5.73
11.24
0.95
16.19
1.55
0.13
13.89
3.36
1.53
Maharashtra
9.41
6.67
19.60
1.36
7.34
2.69
0.58
5.80
2.23
1.50
Orissa
4.73
0.64
5.32
0.20
0.48
0.33
0.47
5.84
0.19
0.18
Punjab
1.29
3.88
5.18
0.24
4.53
0.43
0.03
4.35
0.34
0.50
Rajasthan
2.48
9.76
13.75
0.78
10.54
0.83
0.13
7.71
1.30
0.89
Tamil Nadu
9.36
0.80
10.06
0.66
4.63
1.15
0.92
5.28
1.11
0.60
Uttar Pradesh
19.08 25.73 44.36
2.54
19.47
3.89
1.29
42.64
11.43
2.40
West Bengal
11.49
1.72
13.21
0.52
4.74
1.52
2.39
16.79
1.44
0.69
India Total
121.57 74.76 204.79 11.12
100.58 19.02 10.36 148.15
31.41 12.05
2050
Andhra P.
31.48
2.40
34.21
0.51
4.45
2.50
1.97
21.55
3.00
0.47
Assam
10.14
0.98
10.91
0.29
4.79
0.92
1.95
7.25
1.49
0.31
Bihar
17.56
9.88
27.44
1.19
10.53
4.02
0.92
36.51
29.45
1.24
Gujarat
7.47
8.22
18.67
0.49
14.20
2.21
0.29
12.84
0.84
0.65
Haryana
1.10
3.31
4.42
0.58
5.21
0.40
0.38
4.77
0.42
0.32
Karnataka
11.93
2.32
17.81
0.76
6.24
2.84
0.50
13.31
2.40
0.57
Kerala
8.30
1.13
9.43
0.43
1.62
0.58
1.83
8.28
0.49
0.52
M. P.
4.53
4.92
9.64
0.78
34.41
2.74
0.10
22.89
29.46
2.04
Maharashtra
25.09 17.77 52.27
1.71
10.98
6.34
0.75
14.27
3.99
1.75
Orissa
4.55
0.56
5.11
0.17
0.44
0.57
0.82
12.57
0.15
0.16
Punjab
2.15
6.44
8.58
0.21
4.67
0.64
0.04
8.62
0.40
0.43
Rajasthan
4.27
16.83 23.71
1.41
13.68
1.68
0.29
28.30
3.37
0.96
Tamil Nadu
11.61
0.96
11.97
0.67
6.71
2.44
1.82
7.82
1.55
0.72
Uttar Pradesh
33.73 44.71 78.44
3.18
30.75
9.99
2.95
66.32 104.10 2.87
West Bengal
12.36
1.85
14.21
0.49
8.40
3.04
4.61
22.28
3.07
0.87
India Total
186.28 122.28 326.84 12.87
157.07 40.89 19.21 287.59 184.19 13.88
*: All the milk products converted to liquid milk
30
Table 12: Cereal Based Feed Requirement for Animal Based Products (Million Tonnes)
Name of the
major states
Scenario – 1
(Well Fed India)
Milk
Meat, Egg
& Fish
Total
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
0.58
0.23
1.03
0.41
0.18
0.42
0.24
0.76
0.76
0.29
0.19
0.56
0.46
1.92
0.63
8.67
2.33
0.90
4.11
1.64
0.70
1.69
0.97
3.06
3.05
1.15
0.75
2.26
1.85
7.67
2.53
34.67
2.91
1.13
5.14
2.05
0.88
2.11
1.21
3.82
3.81
1.44
0.94
2.82
2.32
9.59
3.16
43.34
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
0.57
0.25
1.16
0.42
0.18
0.43
0.24
0.77
0.87
0.29
0.18
0.75
0.45
2.90
0.63
10.07
2.29
0.98
4.64
1.69
0.74
1.70
0.94
3.08
3.46
1.15
0.74
2.99
1.78
11.59
2.51
40.27
2.86
1.23
5.80
2.11
0.92
2.13
1.18
3.85
4.33
1.44
0.92
3.74
2.23
14.48
3.14
50.34
Scenario – 2
(Current level of food
Consumption (1999-2000))
Milk Meat, Egg Total
& Fish
2025
0.47
0.68
1.14
0.10
0.44
0.54
0.67
0.60
1.28
0.82
0.12
0.94
0.60
0.03
0.63
0.44
0.44
0.88
0.17
1.19
1.36
0.76
0.26
1.02
0.71
0.68
1.40
0.07
0.28
0.35
0.54
0.05
0.59
1.52
0.12
1.65
0.42
0.64
1.05
2.37
1.11
3.48
0.35
1.48
1.83
10.02
8.12
18.14
2050
0.47
0.66
1.13
0.12
0.49
0.61
0.77
0.70
1.47
0.85
0.13
0.98
0.62
0.03
0.65
0.45
0.45
0.90
0.17
1.17
1.34
0.78
0.27
1.05
0.84
0.80
1.63
0.07
0.29
0.36
0.53
0.05
0.58
2.04
0.17
2.20
0.41
0.62
1.04
3.65
1.70
5.35
0.37
1.49
1.86
12.15
9.00
21.15
31
Scenario – 3
(Expenditure Based)
Milk
Meat, Egg
& Fish
Total
0.49
0.20
0.87
1.06
0.58
0.53
0.18
1.94
0.88
0.06
0.54
1.26
0.56
2.34
0.57
12.07
1.29
0.99
0.71
0.21
0.07
0.45
1.58
0.15
0.69
0.56
0.04
0.16
1.11
1.55
2.86
12.43
1.78
1.18
1.59
1.28
0.66
0.98
1.76
2.10
1.57
0.62
0.58
1.42
1.66
3.89
3.43
24.50
0.53
0.57
1.26
1.70
0.63
0.75
0.19
4.13
1.32
0.05
0.56
1.64
0.81
3.69
1.01
18.85
2.36
2.33
1.11
0.35
0.45
0.60
2.20
0.12
0.90
0.98
0.05
0.34
2.19
3.54
5.53
23.05
2.89
2.91
2.37
2.05
1.08
1.35
2.39
4.25
2.22
1.03
0.61
1.98
2.99
7.23
6.54
41.90
Table 13: State-wise Post Harvest Losses of Cereals, Pulses, Vegetables and Fruits
Name of
the major
states
Scenario – I
Scenario – II
Scenario – III
Cereals Pulses Vegetables Fruits Cereals Pulses Vegetables Fruits Cereals Pulses Vegetables Fruits
Andhra P.
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
M. P.
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar P.
W. Bengal
India Total
0.19 0.03
0.07 0.01
0.47 0.05
0.26 0.02
0.11 0.01
0.22 0.02
0.08 0.01
0.42 0.04
0.46 0.04
0.10 0.014
0.12 0.01
0.41 0.03
0.15 0.02
1.08 0.09
0.22 0.03
4.36 0.43
1.04
0.40
1.83
0.73
0.31
0.75
0.43
1.36
1.36
0.51
0.33
1.00
0.82
3.41
1.12
15.41
0.19
0.08
0.34
0.14
0.06
0.14
0.08
0.25
0.25
0.10
0.06
0.19
0.15
0.64
0.21
2.88
0.17
0.07
0.51
0.22
0.10
0.22
0.06
0.42
0.42
0.10
0.10
0.47
0.12
1.12
0.20
4.30
Andhra P.
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
M. P.
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar P.
W. Bengal
India Total
0.19
0.08
0.53
0.27
0.12
0.22
0.08
0.42
0.53
0.10
0.12
0.54
0.14
1.63
0.22
5.17
1.02
0.44
2.06
0.75
0.33
0.76
0.42
1.37
1.54
0.51
0.33
1.33
0.79
5.15
1.12
17.90
0.19
0.08
0.39
0.14
0.06
0.14
0.08
0.26
0.29
0.10
0.06
0.25
0.15
0.97
0.21
3.36
0.17
0.07
0.58
0.23
0.10
0.22
0.06
0.42
0.47
0.10
0.10
0.61
0.11
1.68
0.20
5.11
0.03
0.01
0.06
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.14
0.03
0.49
2025
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.01
0.33
2050
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.12
0.01
0.39
32
0.89
0.49
2.63
0.78
0.35
0.62
0.32
1.42
1.15
0.68
0.46
0.86
0.76
4.67
1.91
18.01
0.16
0.03
0.15
0.11
0.05
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.28
0.03
0.05
0.10
0.16
0.57
0.10
2.22
0.21
0.15
0.40
0.27
0.09
0.23
0.08
0.24
0.47
0.07
0.13
0.39
0.13
0.98
0.18
4.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.004
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.01
0.25
1.95
1.77
1.67
1.32
0.54
1.11
0.81
2.78
1.16
1.17
0.87
1.54
1.06
8.53
3.36
29.63
0.35
0.13
0.96
0.13
0.07
0.25
0.12
0.67
0.45
0.04
0.07
0.26
0.22
2.29
0.29
6.28
0.88
0.54
2.97
0.81
0.37
0.63
0.31
1.45
1.33
0.68
0.45
1.16
0.74
7.08
1.91
21.31
0.16
0.03
0.17
0.12
0.06
0.16
0.12
0.15
0.33
0.04
0.05
0.14
0.16
0.88
0.11
2.68
0.43 0.01
0.14 0.01
0.49 0.03
0.47 0.01
0.11 0.01
0.37 0.02
0.13 0.01
0.21 0.02
1.24 0.04
0.07 0.004
0.22 0.01
0.67 0.03
0.16 0.02
1.71 0.07
0.19 0.01
6.60 0.28
4.31
1.45
7.30
2.57
0.96
2.66
1.66
4.58
2.86
2.51
1.72
5.66
1.57
13.27
4.46
57.52
0.60
0.30
5.891
0.17
0.08
0.48
0.10
5.89
0.80
0.03
0.08
0.67
0.31
20.82
0.61
36.84
Table 14: Aggregate Projected Food Demand under Different Scenarios (Million Tonnes)
Total
Pulses
Milk
Edible
Meat,
VegeFruits
Sugar &
Cereals
Oils
fish &
tables
Jaggery
Eggs
2025
Scenario - I
269.21
19.68
72.23
9.64
28.84
92.46
17.30
14.42
Scenario - II
216.92
14.36
83.54
8.46
6.75
108.08
13.34
13.89
Scenario - III 233.30
11.37
100.58
19.02
10.36
177.78
37.69
12.05
2050
Scenario - I
312.80
22.85
83.91
11.19
33.56
107.39
20.14
16.78
Scenario - II
252.35
17.03
101.21
9.95
7.50
127.87
16.08
16.54
Scenario - III 375.34
13.15
157.07
40.89
19.21
345.11
221.03
13.88
Table 15: State-wise Irrigation Water Requirement under Scenario–I (BCM)
Name of the
Major State
Andhra P.
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
M. P.
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
U. P.
West Bengal
India Total
Rice
Wheat
2025 2050 2025 2050
51.29 50.29 4.98 4.88
29.15 31.57 1.06 1.15
144.44 163.04 17.10 19.30
22.96 23.57 8.19 8.41
4.15 4.34 2.33 2.44
18.28 18.38 8.03 8.08
25.78 25.15 3.73 3.64
57.91 58.35 21.28 21.44
59.09 67.13 24.26 27.56
26.47 26.40 1.79 1.78
3.53 3.46 1.94 1.90
15.77 20.90 12.81 16.98
32.11 30.86 4.47 4.30
111.87 168.96 31.95 48.26
58.73 58.26 3.10 3.07
661.52 750.67 147.02 173.20
Others
2025 2050
0.27 0.26
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
4.97 5.10
0.00 0.00
4.82 4.84
0.00 0.00
1.14 1.15
12.34 14.02
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
6.87 9.11
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
30.41 34.49
Total cereals
Pulses
2025 2050 2025 2050
56.54 55.44 8.52 8.33
30.21 32.72 2.56 2.76
161.54 182.34 9.15 10.35
36.12 37.09 4.93 5.09
6.47 6.78 1.81 1.90
31.13 31.30 12.36 12.36
29.51 28.79 2.75 2.65
80.32 80.94 7.56 7.60
95.69 108.71 11.26 12.80
28.26 28.18 3.27 3.27
5.47 5.36 1.60 1.56
35.44 47.00 7.96 10.57
36.58 35.16 11.13 10.70
143.82 217.21 14.90 22.53
61.83 61.33 5.06 5.02
838.94 958.35 104.83 117.50
33
Edible Oils
2025 2050
7.22 6.99
2.34 2.53
12.42 14.06
4.65 4.75
1.54 1.61
4.74 4.74
1.57 1.52
9.78 9.90
6.76 7.63
2.01 2.01
1.83 1.83
10.35 13.64
2.91 2.80
18.76 28.37
8.57 8.57
95.45 110.94
Sugar
2025 2050
2.34 2.29
1.29 1.39
6.24 7.05
1.67 1.72
1.00 1.06
1.41 1.43
0.95 0.93
5.96 6.01
17.47 19.81
1.20 1.20
0.81 0.81
3.78 5.03
13.97 13.42
8.28 12.50
2.49 2.49
68.86 77.14
Table 16: State-wise Irrigation Water Requirement under Scenario–II (BCM)
Name of the
Major State
Andhra P.
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
M. P.
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
U. P.
West Bengal
India Total
Rice
Wheat
2025 2050 2025 2050
45.04 43.80 2.06 2.20
26.63 28.80 0.79 0.89
124.84 139.80 18.51 21.02
8.47 8.69 5.92 6.19
1.25 1.33 2.08 2.16
11.31 11.43 5.66 5.83
18.05 17.53 2.58 2.52
42.86 42.41 19.88 20.20
29.20 33.30 21.36 24.58
29.58 29.34 1.06 1.15
0.88 0.88 1.67 1.62
1.94 2.67 13.07 17.39
23.12 22.08 2.80 2.80
75.05 111.52 34.45 51.74
54.01 52.72 2.85 2.95
492.23 546.31 134.74 163.25
Others
2025 2050
1.03 0.97
0.00 0.00
1.88 2.03
6.77 6.63
0.15 0.17
6.99 6.82
0.13 0.13
4.06 3.88
14.68 15.81
0.36 0.34
0.20 0.23
14.03 17.63
0.53 0.49
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
50.82 55.11
Total cereals
2025 2050
48.12 46.98
27.41 29.69
145.23 162.85
21.17 21.51
3.49 3.65
23.96 24.08
20.75 20.18
66.79 66.49
65.23 73.69
31.01 30.83
2.75 2.73
29.05 37.69
26.46 25.37
109.50 163.26
56.86 55.67
677.79 764.66
Pulses
2025 2050
5.51 5.44
1.18 1.33
6.18 7.02
4.01 4.12
1.53 1.63
10.52 10.65
1.38 1.33
5.73 5.82
9.53 10.80
1.43 1.43
1.49 1.45
5.03 6.81
8.54 8.32
12.98 19.56
2.17 2.17
77.20 87.87
Edible Oils
2025 2050
6.11 5.99
1.50 1.68
8.83 10.03
7.08 7.38
1.23 1.31
3.93 4.03
1.11 1.11
8.05 8.28
8.03 9.22
1.00 1.00
1.83 1.83
8.38 11.34
2.46 2.40
16.47 25.11
7.47 7.47
83.47 98.18
Sugar
2025 2050
1.42 1.42
0.71 0.78
3.36 3.91
2.17 2.24
2.03 2.13
1.43 1.45
0.93 0.90
5.87 5.96
21.59 24.62
0.60 0.60
1.70 1.65
4.91 6.51
9.98 9.80
9.01 13.69
1.52 1.52
67.21 77.18
Table 17: State-wise Irrigation Water Requirement under Scenario–III (BCM)
Name of
Rice
Wheat
Others
Total cereals
Pulses
Edible Oils
Sugar
the State
2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050
Andhra P. 55.76 117.85 5.42 11.45 0.30 0.61 61.47 129.91 3.98 3.29 15.16 27.74 1.20 1.14
Assam
60.26 55.02 2.81 2.57 0.00 0.00 63.08 57.59 1.25 1.49 3.95 8.62 0.79 1.05
Bihar
122.92 150.99 14.55 17.87 0.00 0.00 137.47 168.86 4.59 4.77 19.97 43.78 3.37 4.54
Gujarat
23.46 40.83 8.37 14.57 5.08 8.83 36.91 64.23 2.84 2.65 13.11 22.35 1.75 1.61
Haryana
3.22 4.07 1.83 2.29 0.00 0.00 5.05 6.36 1.72 2.77 1.86 3.04 1.24 1.11
Karnataka 19.04 30.12 8.37 13.24 5.01 7.93 32.42 51.29 8.72 9.99 11.11 28.60 1.19 1.14
Kerala
25.50 38.88 4.02 6.21 0.00 0.02 29.52 45.11 1.59 2.24 2.16 3.37 1.07 1.23
M. P.
33.35 28.61 12.25 10.51 0.65 0.55 46.25 39.67 4.20 3.46 17.88 31.52 7.17 9.57
Maharashtra 59.47 158.55 24.42 65.10 12.40 33.12 96.29 256.77 9.05 11.39 21.35 50.37 20.67 24.07
Orissa
19.13 18.39 1.41 1.24 0.00 0.00 20.54 19.63 1.01 0.86 2.08 3.60 0.45 0.39
Punjab
3.79 6.29 2.09 3.46 0.01 0.00 5.89 9.75 0.91 0.79 3.73 5.57 1.30 1.13
Rajasthan
15.03 25.92 12.21 21.06 6.55 11.29 33.79 58.28 4.99 9.10 13.57 27.66 3.56 3.85
Tamil Nadu 27.28 33.86 4.34 5.17 0.00 0.00 31.62 39.03 7.14 7.25 6.57 13.92 10.92 13.12
U. P.
103.67 183.32 28.92 50.26 0.00 0.00 132.59 233.58 8.86 11.04 34.29 87.97 6.21 7.42
West Bengal 48.00 51.64 2.53 2.72 0.00 0.00 50.53 54.37 1.86 1.77 18.62 37.24 1.64 2.05
India Total 619.88 944.36 133.55 227.72 30.01 62.34 783.44 1234.42 62.70 72.86 185.40 395.35 62.53 73.44
34
Table 18: Irrigation Water Requirement for Milk Production (BCM)
Name of the
major states
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
Milk production based on Free Grazing
Scenario – I Scenario – II Scenario – III
(Well fed
(Current level (Expenditure
India)
of
based)
Consumption
(99-00))
2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050
1.01 0.98 0.81
0.81 0.85 0.92
0.57 0.62 0.26
0.31 0.50 1.46
2.11 2.38 1.39
1.59 1.79 2.60
1.16 1.19 2.31
2.41 3.01 4.82
0.47 0.49 1.60
1.66 1.56 1.67
0.90 0.91 0.93
0.96 1.13 1.59
1.26 1.23 0.91
0.89 0.94 1.01
2.54 2.56 2.53
2.60 6.46 13.72
2.56 2.91 2.41
2.81 2.97 4.44
0.66 0.66 0.15
0.16 0.13 0.12
0.45 0.45 1.30
1.27 1.31 1.35
2.34 3.10 6.31
8.43 5.24 6.80
0.90 0.86 0.81
0.80 1.07 1.56
2.09 3.16 2.59
3.99 2.55 4.03
0.91 0.90 0.51
0.53 0.81 1.44
19.93 22.40 24.82 29.22 30.33 47.53
Milk production based on Stall Feeding
Scenario – I Scenario – II Scenario – III
(Well fed
(Current level (Expenditure
India)
of
based)
Consumption
(99-00))
2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050
9.94 9.74 7.96
7.98 8.36 9.10
3.85 4.17 1.74
2.07 3.34 9.79
17.51 19.76 11.50 13.20 14.88 21.54
7.00 7.20 13.95 14.57 18.15 29.06
3.01 3.15 10.21 10.56 9.95 10.66
7.20 7.24 7.47
7.67 9.09 12.77
4.13 4.03 2.97
2.93 3.08 3.31
13.03 13.11 12.99 13.32 33.13 70.40
12.99 14.77 12.19 14.24 15.02 22.47
4.91 4.89 1.13
1.19 0.98 0.89
3.21 3.15 9.21
8.98 9.26 9.54
9.62 12.77 26.00 34.70 21.57 27.99
7.90 7.59 7.10
7.08 9.47 13.74
32.70 49.39 40.49 62.28 39.83 62.91
10.78 10.70 6.02
6.32 9.70 17.19
147.78 171.66 170.93 207.09 205.80 321.37
Table 19: Irrigation Water Requirement for Meat, Fish and Egg Production (BCM)
Name of the
Major States
Andhra P.
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Kerala
M. P.
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
India Total
2025
2050
Scenario–I
Scenario–II
Scenario–III Scenario–I
Scenario–II
Scenario–III
(Well fed (Current level of (Expenditure (Well fed (Current level of (Expenditure
India)
Consumption
based)
India)
Consumption
based)
(99-00))
(99-00))
4.02
1.16
2.22
3.94
1.14
4.07
2.30
1.12
2.51
2.49
1.24
5.93
8.44
1.24
1.47
9.53
1.43
2.28
4.65
0.34
0.60
4.77
0.37
0.99
1.88
0.07
0.20
1.97
0.08
1.21
3.60
0.95
0.96
3.62
0.97
1.28
5.06
6.22
8.25
4.93
6.09
11.47
10.15
0.85
0.51
10.23
0.88
0.40
10.26
2.30
2.33
11.66
2.69
3.02
2.65
0.65
1.29
2.64
0.67
2.25
1.81
0.12
0.10
1.78
0.12
0.13
9.34
0.51
0.65
12.39
0.68
1.42
3.58
1.23
2.14
3.45
1.20
4.23
8.37
1.21
1.69
12.64
1.85
3.86
3.62
2.12
4.10
3.59
2.14
7.92
79.73
20.09
29.03
89.63
21.55
50.46
35
Table 20: Irrigation Water Requirement for Production of Food-Stuff under Different
Scenarios in 2025 and 2050 (BCM)
Food-Stuff
Rice
Wheat
Millets
Total foodgrain
Total Pulses
Total Oilseeds
Sugar
Milk
a. Free Grazing
b. Stall Feeding
Meat, Fish & Eggs
2025
2050
Scenario–I
Scenario–II
Scenario–III Scenario–I
Scenario–II
Scenario–III
(Well fed (Current level of (Expenditure (Well fed (Current level of (Expenditure
India)
Consumption
based)
India)
Consumption
based)
(99-00))
(99-00))
661.52
492.23
619.88
750.67
546.31
944.36
147.02
134.74
133.55
173.20
163.25
227.72
30.41
50.82
30.01
34.49
55.11
62.34
838.94
677.79
783.44
958.35
764.66
1234.42
104.83
77.20
62.70
117.50
87.87
72.86
95.45
83.47
185.40
110.94
98.18
395.35
68.86
67.21
62.53
77.14
77.18
73.44
19.93
147.78
79.73
24.82
170.93
20.09
30.33
205.09
29.03
22.40
171.66
89.63
29.22
207.09
21.55
47.53
321.37
50.46
4.47
3.09
3.6
Gujarat
4.28
3.56
Andhra
Pradesh
3.6
3.53
3.34
2.99
2.98
Rajasthan
2.12
MP
2.86
1.98
Uttar
Pradesh
1.57
1.09
ALL- India
Maharashtra
Tamilnadu
Karnataka
Hariyana
Kerala
Punjab
West
Bengal
Orissa
Assam
0.06
Bihar
Per Cent
Figure 2: Growth of Net State Domestic Product (Per cent/Capita/Annum)
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Figure 3: Expenditure on Food and Non-food Items, India
1000
Rural area
800
Urban area
600
400
200
Food T otal
Non-Food T otal
36
T otal Food and Non-food
2003
2001-02
2000-02
1999-2000
1998
1997
1995-96
1993-94
2003
2001-02
2000-02
1999-2000
1998
1997
1995-96
1993-94
2003
2001-02
2000-02
1999-2000
1998
1997
1995-96
0
1993-94
Rs./Capita/Annum
1200
Per cent
Figure 4: Historical Growth of Monthly Per Capita Consumer
Expenditure on Food Items, India
y = 69.675e-0.0143x
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
R2 = 0.8704
y = 65.015e-0.0254x
Food (Rural)
Food (Urban)
Expon. (Food (Rural))
Expon. (Food (Urban))
R2 = 0.9502
[1972- [1977- [1983- [1987- [1991] [1992] [1993] [1993- [1994- 1995- [1997] [1998] [1999- [2000- [2001- [2002] [2003]
73] 78] 84] 88]
94] 95] 96]
2000] 01] 02]
y = 175.13e-0.0145x
R2 = 0.9655
[198788]
[1991]
[1992]
[1993]
[199394]
[199495]
199596]
[1997]
[1998]
[200001]
[200102]
[2003]
43
Round
47
Round
48
49
Round Round
50
Round
51
Round
52
Round
53
Round
54
56
Round Round
57
Round
59
Round
Total Cereals
Jowar
Expon. (Total Cereals )
Rice
Bajara
Wheat
Maize
Figure 6: Historical Growth in Cereal Consumption in Urban India
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
180
170
160
150
140
130
140
135
y = 135.27e
-0.0095x
2
R = 0.827
130
125
120
115
110
[1987-88]
[1991]
[1992]
[1993]
43
Round
47
Round
48
Round
49
Round
[1993-94] [1994-95] 1995-96]
50
Round
Total Cereals
Jowar
Expon. (Total Cereals )
51
Round
Rice
Bajara
37
52
Round
[1997]
[1998]
53
Round
54
Round
[2000-01] [2001-02]
56
Round
Wheat
Maize
57
Round
[2003]
59
Round
Total Cereal Consumption
Figure 5: Historical Growth of Cereal Consumption in Rural India
100
80
60
40
20
0
Total Cereal Consumption
Kgs/capita/annum
Kgs/capita/annum
27
32
38
43
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
RoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRoundRound
Annexure 1a: State-wise per Capita Expenditure on Food Items in Rural Area (Rs/Month)
Food Items
Year
AP Assa
m
Cereals
1993-94 70.8 90.6
1995-96 80.7 101.5
1997 95.0 112.2
1998 97.5 120.8
1999-00 111.7 137.9
2000-02 104.1 141.9
2001-02 115.3 139.7
2003 114.2 131.9
Gram
1993-94 0.0 0.3
1995-96 0.0 0.2
1997 0.1 0.2
1998 0.1 0.2
1999-00 0.2 0.2
2000-02 0.2 0.2
2001-02 0.1 0.2
2003 0.2 0.2
Cereal
1993-94 0.0 0.0
Substitute 1995-96 0.0 0.0
1997 0.0 0.1
1998 0.0 0.1
1999-00 0.0 0.0
2000-02 0.0 0.0
2001-02 0.0 0.0
2003 0.0 0.1
Pulses &
1993-94 11.1 6.8
Products
1995-96 13.7 9.6
1997 15.0 12.3
1998 15.4 10.6
1999-00 17.7 13.2
2000-02 15.7 13.2
2001-02 18.5 17.1
2003 16.9 15.5
Milk & Milk 1993-94 15.3 11.6
Products
1995-96 22.3 15.9
1997 26.2 16.7
1998 27.6 13.3
1999-00 27.4 15.1
2000-02 29.1 15.6
2001-02 35.0 25.9
2003 28.1 19.7
Edible Oils 1993-94 14.2 9.6
1995-96 17.2 13.0
1997 17.6 12.7
1998 17.6 12.7
1999-00 17.0 14.8
2000-02 17.0 14.4
2001-02 20.4 19.5
2003 24.8 23.1
Meat, Egg 1993-94 13.1 21.7
and Fish
1995-96 13.4 22.6
Bihar Gujar Hary
at ana
80.5 50.7 49.0
95.0 59.6 49.8
96.9 69.4 62.4
99.2 64.2 62.9
125.2 80.8 78.9
113.5 86.7 69.6
108.5 79.5 64.3
107.1 77.1 71.5
1.1 0.4 0.7
1.8 0.4 1.3
1.4 0.5 0.8
1.5 0.8 0.9
1.0 0.7 1.2
1.2 0.5 1.0
1.5 1.3 1.0
1.2 0.5 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.1 0.0
0.0 0.1 0.0
0.3 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
0.0 0.1 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2 0.1 0.0
8.7 13.8 9.3
10.4 18.5 10.7
11.7 20.7 11.7
11.2 19.2 11.9
15.4 23.1 19.8
14.0 22.1 16.9
14.4 21.6 15.2
14.7 20.6 17.2
16.2 42.7 98.2
19.9 57.1 127.7
23.1 67.1 145.2
18.8 65.9 133.4
25.8 78.6 164.5
30.4 82.3 155.8
25.1 78.0 160.7
29.3 77.9 170.2
9.9 26.5 9.1
12.9 28.3 11.1
12.6 34.2 10.1
14.0 32.9 11.5
16.0 34.9 14.8
14.4 35.5 11.7
16.5 40.5 11.8
21.7 41.7 16.2
5.8 3.2 1.8
7.2 3.7 4.0
Karn Keral
ataka a
61.5 68.4
80.9 86.9
77.9 88.9
80.3 89.2
102.9 110.7
95.8 119.4
90.9 104.3
93.7 111.5
0.5 1.1
0.7 1.2
1.5 1.5
1.1 1.6
1.2 1.9
1.3 1.9
1.4 1.9
2.0 2.5
0.0 4.2
0.0 3.6
0.0 3.4
0.0 4.1
0.0 4.8
0.0 4.9
0.0 4.6
0.0 5.7
11.6 7.2
15.1 9.5
17.1 9.0
15.8 9.9
23.0 13.5
19.7 14.3
20.2 13.3
19.0 15.2
18.3 20.4
21.3 31.9
29.3 33.5
30.1 31.0
33.8 37.9
31.0 44.6
31.6 37.5
33.5 39.5
10.4 11.3
13.8 14.6
14.7 19.2
14.9 18.3
17.3 20.2
17.5 15.8
18.7 16.9
22.4 26.7
9.0 33.0
10.7 42.9
38
MP Mahar
ashtra
66.2 48.7
78.0 68.0
82.5 68.0
83.8 69.6
100.3 87.8
73.8 82.2
74.2 85.3
80.9 85.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.2
1.3
0.1
1.3
0.2
1.9
0.1
1.6
0.2
2.0
0.3
2.2
0.2
2.5
0.5
2.3
12.5 14.0
13.5 16.1
14.7 17.6
13.5 18.0
17.6 24.0
16.1 22.8
18.1 24.4
17.4 22.8
20.7 17.9
25.2 23.4
25.7 24.6
27.1 26.3
32.0 29.9
35.0 32.5
39.7 33.7
44.3 30.3
11.7 16.4
13.9 21.0
14.6 22.1
15.4 21.5
14.9 21.7
13.8 21.1
16.4 23.5
20.5 32.3
4.4
8.6
5.0 11.3
Oriss Punja
a
b
85.6 45.6
113.8 48.8
116.2 58.5
111.5 58.8
134.4 73.9
130.7 72.0
101.4 72.1
109.6 72.1
0.2 1.4
0.1 1.1
0.1 2.0
0.0 2.1
0.2 3.1
0.2 2.5
0.2 2.3
0.1 2.5
0.1 0.0
0.2 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
5.7 14.1
8.4 14.3
7.9 16.3
8.0 18.0
10.5 22.5
10.3 20.3
8.9 18.2
9.8 19.6
5.3 88.5
6.4 103.6
6.8 129.4
7.9 119.3
7.8 127.9
9.6 133.2
5.6 127.0
8.4 140.8
6.9 18.0
9.6 21.6
8.4 21.1
9.6 21.1
10.8 22.1
10.9 20.4
10.1 22.4
14.5 31.4
9.1 3.5
12.1 3.5
Rajasthan
58.1
62.2
73.6
70.7
98.1
86.1
76.8
82.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.7
7.3
10.8
9.3
13.8
13.2
13.4
12.1
70.5
89.3
106.7
95.6
109.9
108.2
116.6
103.0
11.3
15.0
12.4
15.4
18.0
15.6
18.4
21.2
2.4
3.5
T.N. UP
WB
72.6
86.5
98.6
89.0
92.6
91.9
92.1
93.8
0.7
0.4
1.5
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.7
1.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
11.7
14.4
18.4
17.6
22.7
20.6
22.0
21.6
13.2
14.5
25.8
21.7
25.2
25.2
22.9
27.7
11.5
14.4
15.9
14.7
16.8
16.1
18.3
23.0
12.6
15.8
94.4
104.8
113.6
118.3
142.8
128.2
124.8
129.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
5.7
8.3
9.2
8.5
11.6
12.3
12.0
12.5
10.6
12.2
13.6
14.3
14.7
14.7
21.2
18.5
11.2
15.2
14.0
16.4
18.5
17.3
19.4
27.6
18.5
19.3
59.3
67.1
78.6
73.7
98.0
81.3
78.4
88.1
0.7
0.7
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
13.2
15.3
17.1
16.4
22.2
19.8
18.0
20.0
34.2
35.8
41.0
41.9
46.7
48.5
41.5
50.7
11.5
14.9
15.1
15.7
17.6
15.8
16.1
24.2
4.6
5.4
All
India
68.1
80.2
86.5
87.2
107.8
99.1
95.5
98.8
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
10.7
12.9
14.8
13.9
18.5
17.0
16.9
17.3
26.7
32.4
39.3
36.5
42.6
43.0
41.9
44.8
12.5
15.8
16.0
16.5
18.2
16.9
18.3
24.6
9.4
10.9
1997 19.0
1998 18.7
1999-00 20.6
2000-02 24.7
2001-02 21.4
2003 22.9
Vegetables 1993-94 14.5
1995-96 16.0
1997 21.6
1998 19.4
1999-00 26.5
2000-02 26.6
2001-02 28.7
2003 30.7
Fruits and 1993-94 4.8
Nuts
1995-96 4.1
1997 7.7
1998 5.2
1999-00 7.0
2000-02 8.9
2001-02 7.8
2003 9.4
Sugar
1993-94 5.4
1995-96 4.9
1997 6.5
1998 6.2
1999-00 6.8
2000-02 6.9
2001-02 7.5
2003 6.3
Salt
1993-94 0.5
1995-96 0.8
1997 0.9
1998 0.8
1999-00 1.1
2000-02 1.1
2001-02 1.2
2003 1.2
Spices
1993-94 9.8
1995-96 10.7
1997 11.7
1998 10.6
1999-00 15.2
2000-02 12.7
2001-02 14.5
2003 16.0
Beverages 1993-94 12.5
etc.
1995-96 13.3
1997 17.2
1998 14.3
1999-00 23.4
2000-02 26.2
2001-02 25.3
2003 28.7
Food Total 1993-94 172.0
28.6
25.1
35.4
42.3
45.3
47.7
20.8
25.8
25.2
24.7
35.0
35.5
47.3
46.9
3.0
2.6
4.4
2.5
4.0
5.0
6.5
5.9
5.1
5.4
6.0
5.9
7.3
7.6
9.2
7.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
4.0
4.2
4.7
4.7
7.2
7.6
8.3
8.7
12.2
12.1
12.0
11.5
16.9
15.5
21.9
20.6
186.5
8.2
8.5
11.0
12.2
12.6
11.0
16.9
19.7
19.7
24.2
30.6
29.9
32.1
33.9
1.5
1.8
2.6
1.5
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.8
3.9
4.4
5.0
4.8
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
4.6
5.0
5.4
6.0
9.4
7.1
7.4
9.3
5.3
5.6
7.4
6.2
10.4
10.0
12.2
11.8
155.0
4.0
5.1
4.6
5.2
5.2
6.3
24.0
27.8
33.1
32.4
38.0
40.4
51.9
46.3
4.0
5.1
7.1
6.7
8.5
9.1
9.1
10.7
14.4
14.6
18.2
17.0
17.1
19.2
18.6
15.9
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.6
7.4
9.6
9.6
9.3
14.0
13.3
14.6
14.0
16.1
15.9
22.3
24.2
28.8
31.5
33.4
30.2
203.5
1.9
3.2
2.8
2.5
0.8
2.8
16.9
18.7
21.7
27.8
35.9
30.0
35.1
34.5
6.1
8.0
5.8
6.9
11.3
10.6
9.6
11.7
20.7
20.9
23.0
24.4
30.4
24.9
21.8
22.9
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
7.1
7.0
8.0
8.6
13.1
10.8
10.1
11.1
11.8
13.2
14.7
18.1
22.8
25.3
30.5
28.2
231.2
13.3
13.5
18.4
21.2
17.7
17.8
13.1
14.2
14.3
18.7
23.6
23.5
23.8
27.2
8.6
8.0
10.9
10.3
15.6
15.1
12.8
14.8
9.9
9.6
11.8
10.7
11.9
12.2
12.2
11.2
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
7.5
7.9
8.2
9.3
14.5
13.5
12.5
13.6
16.1
21.4
21.9
21.7
32.1
36.4
35.1
35.7
166.9
49.1
54.8
61.3
64.5
62.7
65.4
16.3
18.9
23.6
24.1
29.5
30.0
28.9
34.3
23.9
24.6
28.0
31.6
38.5
34.0
34.3
42.4
9.9
10.0
10.8
11.3
12.1
13.8
13.3
12.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.3
10.2
12.9
19.8
14.5
19.7
17.0
17.6
19.8
29.6
38.2
34.0
45.3
60.2
56.4
55.7
64.0
236.0
39
5.2
5.0
5.5
5.6
4.5
4.9
14.3
16.7
16.5
20.9
22.9
21.1
24.8
27.0
2.6
2.8
3.6
3.1
4.1
4.8
4.7
6.3
8.0
7.9
9.9
10.1
11.3
12.1
12.1
11.7
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
5.9
6.6
7.0
7.2
10.3
8.9
9.8
10.3
6.8
7.6
9.6
11.0
12.9
14.5
15.3
16.8
154.2
9.6
12.1
14.6
15.8
18.1
14.6
13.8
17.0
17.1
18.5
25.9
24.3
30.8
32.4
7.9
8.8
10.7
10.2
13.8
16.7
17.2
17.1
12.5
13.9
15.4
14.4
14.9
15.9
15.7
14.9
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
7.2
9.0
8.2
8.8
13.9
12.0
12.8
13.8
13.1
14.9
18.3
17.0
21.9
24.4
26.2
22.6
162.2
10.0
9.8
13.6
14.5
13.1
17.7
19.0
23.5
21.1
25.1
31.0
33.7
29.2
34.9
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.2
3.7
4.2
2.9
5.1
3.9
4.4
4.9
4.7
5.9
6.2
4.5
5.4
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
7.9
6.9
5.6
7.9
6.6
10.0
8.5
9.9
12.2
18.0
11.5
16.4
149.6
5.1
3.2
5.6
7.3
3.1
4.1
22.3
23.9
26.7
29.2
35.8
33.5
34.8
39.1
6.8
6.3
8.7
5.6
11.2
10.6
10.7
12.2
23.9
26.2
28.0
26.5
31.7
30.4
30.0
29.2
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.3
8.0
9.3
9.3
10.3
21.2
12.3
11.4
12.4
18.1
18.8
24.8
32.1
31.9
31.7
33.7
37.9
250.8
4.7
3.1
4.7
3.7
6.1
3.8
14.0
15.6
20.4
19.3
25.4
24.2
28.0
29.5
3.0
3.7
4.6
3.7
5.2
6.3
6.1
6.4
13.8
15.6
16.6
17.6
17.5
16.5
18.9
16.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
7.5
8.9
9.9
9.3
14.9
12.4
12.8
14.3
10.7
10.6
12.1
13.1
17.7
17.4
18.2
18.5
200.8
21.6
18.6
24.5
27.6
27.9
24.8
16.8
19.0
25.5
24.8
32.6
31.4
33.5
36.5
6.0
5.7
9.5
7.5
11.7
10.5
11.0
12.8
5.0
4.4
6.7
5.9
7.0
7.1
6.7
7.0
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
11.3
12.6
16.1
14.3
29.6
19.4
19.1
20.8
22.5
19.2
27.1
26.3
36.9
39.0
45.3
43.8
184.5
5.8
5.9
7.9
7.6
6.6
7.5
16.4
19.2
20.8
26.2
27.7
26.2
31.7
34.5
3.9
3.9
6.1
3.9
6.8
9.0
6.2
8.4
9.3
10.1
12.2
11.5
13.0
13.0
10.9
11.8
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
6.5
6.9
8.1
7.9
12.0
9.0
10.0
10.8
8.3
8.2
10.7
11.5
14.8
13.9
13.6
17.6
168.3
25.7
23.7
35.5
36.2
38.2
44.7
21.3
25.5
25.5
30.8
39.7
38.2
45.8
45.7
3.2
2.6
4.1
2.9
4.4
5.3
5.7
6.9
4.5
4.6
5.6
5.6
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.6
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.4
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.5
10.2
10.1
10.3
11.5
10.4
10.6
10.7
10.6
14.1
20.7
18.4
20.2
186.3
11.8
12.7
16.1
17.8
16.7
17.9
17.0
19.6
21.1
24.3
30.0
29.3
33.0
35.3
4.9
5.0
6.7
5.6
8.4
9.0
8.2
10.0
8.6
9.0
10.8
10.2
11.6
11.7
11.0
10.8
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
6.9
7.8
8.7
8.4
13.3
10.8
11.1
12.4
11.7
12.7
14.6
15.1
20.4
22.1
21.9
24.5
177.8
1995-96 197.0
1997 238.5
1998 233.2
1999-00 274.5
2000-02 273.1
2001-02 295.7
2003 299.3
213.6
236.2
233.1
288.2
299.9
342.4
329.6
184.5
194.6
197.1
256.0
244.2
241.9
252.2
241.2
286.6
278.1
329.8
346.4
354.4
341.8
273.2
306.0
310.4
396.6
360.2
361.9
388.5
204.2
221.5
226.9
295.3
288.2
278.0
292.0
295.9
321.4
336.4
411.2
417.6
392.2
440.8
178.4
190.9
199.0
233.2
207.2
220.8
242.1
205.3
214.4
219.1
271.8
271.2
291.5
289.7
197.2
192.6
194.8
239.3
246.7
194.0
230.9
278.3
330.8
327.0
388.2
375.3
366.9
402.6
232.3
272.9
257.9
326.6
305.0
316.5
308.6
207.6
267.7
242.4
301.9
291.0
301.5
314.9
188.2
217.2
216.0
268.0
245.1
234.2
274.6
209.9
229.1
238.8
299.5
291.4
304.6
325.2
207.8
232.0
232.4
288.8
278.6
276.4
298.6
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005) 50, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57 and 59 Rounds
Annexure 1b: State-wise Monthly per Capita Expenditure on Food Items in Urban Area (Rs)
Food Items
Cereals
Year
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Gram
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Cereal
1993-94
Substitute 1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Pulses &
1993-94
Products
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Milk &
1993-94
Milk
1995-96
Products
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Edible Oils 1993-94
AP Assa
m
73.2 92.3
88.3 101.3
93.0 115.0
101.3 114.5
Bihar Guja
rat
80.8 51.5
89.5 59.3
103.7 73.2
105.5 79.4
120.5 153.9 128.3 82.7
118.7
121.0
127.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
145.6
140.4
138.6
0.8
0.6
0.7
1.1
108.2
104.1
110.1
2.6
2.3
3.5
4.0
Hary
ana
48.9
53.7
62.2
73.1
Karn
ataka
69.2
88.8
90.7
100.6
Kera
la
64.1
86.4
85.8
89.3
MP Mahar
ashtra
59.9 60.0
74.5 76.8
79.5 84.6
79.0 88.2
Oriss
a
80.0
97.0
109.3
119.0
Punj Rajas- T.N. UP WB All
ab than
India
45.9 54.0 71.6 55.0 80.9 64.3
52.4 59.0 89.8 63.2 98.4 78.6
61.0 73.6 95.1 76.5 104.0 85.8
71.2 69.1 90.5 77.7 110.3 89.1
78.3 118.2 105.7 97.2
100.4 140.4 75.5
92.6
83.1 68.6 107.0 109.7 80.1
80.5 70.6 114.3 108.7 81.3
86.2 78.1 115.4 109.4 86.0
0.5 1.4 0.8 1.6 0.6
0.5 1.4 0.8 1.5 0.4
0.9 1.9 1.2 2.6 0.6
1.0 1.3 1.3 2.4 0.7
99.6 123.8 73.2
98.8 120.2 69.4
96.6 119.8 78.4
0.7
0.3 1.9
0.7
0.2 1.2
0.7
0.4 2.2
0.8
0.9 1.9
84.3 106.2 80.4 129.8 100.7
81.8 99.7 76.8 120.9 97.8
81.7 114.1 88.5 117.7 102.0
0.2
1.0 0.9 0.5 0.8
0.1
0.6 0.8 0.3 0.7
0.5
1.4 1.2 0.3 1.1
0.1
1.9 2.1 0.3 1.3
105.5 92.0 135.7 105.6
0.2
0.7
1.3
1.0
1.9
1.0
2.5
0.3
0.7
0.3
3.0
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
1.6
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.6
1.3
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.6
2.7
3.3
1.9
1.5
1.7
2.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
1.3
1.5
2.0
1.6
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
2.6
1.9
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
2.2
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.1
2.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.9
19.2
17.3
23.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.6
12.3
18.5
12.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
11.5
15.0
17.2
16.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
15.3
17.7
19.9
20.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.9
13.4
14.5
13.0
0.2 2.0 0.8
0.0 2.2 0.7
0.1 2.5 0.8
14.7 8.1 16.0
19.9 11.6 20.2
18.4 12.8 18.0
20.8 12.2 18.3
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
16.2
22.1
21.2
23.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
11.6
18.3
15.2
19.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.1
16.4
18.7
19.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.8
11.9
12.7
10.9
0.0
0.1
0.0
15.0
20.9
20.4
24.1
0.0 0.1 0.5
0.1 0.0 0.4
0.1 0.1 0.5
14.2 9.1 13.9
18.1 12.9 18.3
18.2 13.9 18.2
19.1 13.6 19.5
23.6
19.6
19.9
26.2
21.7
27.6
17.0
24.3
27.3
19.5
25.0
17.1
30.2
24.5
16.9
24.3
22.7
21.0
21.5
28.2
43.4
48.8
51.8
20.2
21.3
19.6
25.9
29.0
28.8
31.8
17.6
17.0
18.1
30.8
35.4
38.5
47.6
24.1
23.5
25.8
61.6
75.8
80.9
80.5
19.2
17.8
19.8
87.1
123.5
120.0
106.3
24.8
25.8
23.8
34.6
38.4
43.8
55.5
21.2
17.2
18.0
27.7
45.1
45.3
42.7
21.4
22.2
23.7
40.1
47.0
55.9
53.5
26.3
29.0
27.4
48.9
58.8
69.4
69.2
20.4
19.3
19.4
19.9
24.7
29.3
35.7
20.6
20.0
21.7
81.4
104.4
127.2
114.9
15.4
17.1
14.7
72.0
95.4
103.4
110.8
27.7
25.4
27.4
27.4
35.4
45.6
49.3
20.9
21.2
22.0
49.6
62.1
63.1
63.0
17.5
15.5
16.7
28.1
28.2
30.3
34.9
22.1
22.3
22.7
44.9
56.5
62.8
64.6
53.2
43.1
47.7 110.9 147.1 61.7
49.3
63.1
72.6
29.2 129.9 125.2
58.0
72.1
40.3
74.2
58.4
48.7
59.5
18.3
35.9
38.6
38.2
17.1
50.2
50.3
57.8
16.2
66.4
55.3
51.8
12.7
69.8
65.6
89.9
20.0
73.2
87.4
77.9
27.4
40.7
37.3
36.2
14.0
56.9
51.1
59.3
15.7
76.4
80.0
79.8
15.8
40.8
40.6
42.1
17.8
75.9
75.8
80.0
20.1
120.6
108.6
109.6
35.0
150.9
145.7
155.7
16.9
57.6
59.1
60.4
15.8
40
133.8
144.7
144.4
22.7
116.3
107.8
127.2
18.7
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Meat, Egg 1993-94
and Fish
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Vegetables 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Fruits and 1993-94
Nuts
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Sugar
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Salt
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Spices
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
23.2 20.1 20.1 39.5 22.7 19.2 18.6 21.0
22.9 22.6 20.0 38.2 18.8 18.5 24.6 21.8
25.0 24.9 22.2 40.6 19.9 20.8 20.3 23.3
33.4
32.0
34.5
18.4 27.1
17.5 26.5
23.3 26.8
24.1
21.1
20.1
18.6 19.8 23.2 24.8
19.4 18.8 21.6 23.6
19.3 22.0 25.8 25.5
22.2
25.6
22.2
44.9
23.4
33.9
18.5
25.7
26.6
22.2
22.4
28.3
26.8
23.0
24.1
31.9
16.1
19.4
23.9
24.0
25.5
28.1
32.9
37.8
31.2
42.5
45.6
18.9
21.9
26.7
12.8
15.5
15.0
13.2
41.1 19.5 23.0 17.6 21.2
41.1 22.9 27.4 19.8 22.6
55.1 26.9 29.1 30.3 32.3
5.6 3.4 14.4 40.0 7.5
7.7 2.4 19.6 58.8 7.4
10.8 3.9 21.7 59.6 7.5
10.3 0.9 23.1 63.7 8.3
32.5
37.3
45.5
17.2
24.1
22.0
22.2
19.8 25.5
21.5 24.4
26.3 36.6
20.2 4.8
22.7 5.5
23.1 6.1
25.9 5.0
24.0
24.5
30.7
5.4
8.0
10.7
6.1
20.3
22.0
30.0
18.5
19.7
23.9
26.3
19.2
21.6
28.6
7.9
9.9
12.5
13.9
26.1
27.2
39.2
35.1
37.0
40.9
55.9
24.9
26.8
35.0
15.5
19.1
19.6
21.9
24.8
24.3
23.0
26.5
69.2
19.8
9.3
7.3
29.9
70.4
11.8
28.6
28.7
9.4
9.9
34.5
12.7
65.7
26.8
30.2
26.6
31.4
18.2
22.6
25.4
25.3
63.2
65.2
55.1
29.5
27.4
31.5
35.9
16.4
15.5
17.2
24.5
28.0
28.6
30.5
9.4
11.2
10.6
28.9
35.5
37.5
52.9
3.9
12.1
6.8
25.2
27.4
30.7
28.4
31.9
27.0
23.2
17.6
20.1
22.7
28.0
78.5
83.1
72.3
16.9
22.5
25.4
30.8
10.7
8.3
9.5
22.1
26.1
27.1
30.0
26.3
28.2
28.8
26.1
34.5
36.7
38.3
33.4
32.2
39.2
32.1
36.5
36.4
49.7
8.8
7.0
6.8
27.3
31.7
35.7
33.6
8.3
10.8
8.2
22.8
27.2
29.3
32.4
35.0
33.7
35.1
21.0
25.2
28.8
29.3
12.7
13.5
14.5
22.8
26.5
26.6
34.4
63.1
63.9
72.2
30.2
36.9
32.4
45.1
27.7
25.8
27.3
25.0
30.2
30.5
35.7
32.7
48.8
39.5
53.0
41.2
32.1
33.2
37.2
46.8
46.8
41.3
42.0
46.7
39.5
55.2
43.9
33.4
36.3
39.2
8.3
14.7
9.7
9.9
46.5 34.4 50.8 39.7 29.6 36.8
57.5 43.6 54.4 47.1 33.5 37.4
55.6 43.5 54.0 47.5 34.1 39.0
10.1 6.1 10.1 12.6 13.5 27.2
12.8 8.9 17.7 24.5 22.3 61.0
9.0 7.4 11.1 14.9 17.2 34.8
5.1 5.5 12.7 11.1 16.0 35.6
32.4
35.1
40.7
7.8
11.3
9.4
9.8
47.0
52.5
48.5
18.1
27.2
21.5
24.3
46.4
49.6
50.2
7.6
15.6
8.5
12.2
39.8
40.5
46.2
13.3
22.9
17.0
11.8
36.8
38.4
40.5
9.0
18.2
13.4
15.5
37.8
39.5
44.9
9.8
16.6
12.5
11.1
37.1
40.7
38.2
10.1
16.8
12.2
12.1
53.7
63.7
58.4
8.8
12.3
7.6
10.5
41.8
45.2
45.9
12.2
21.1
14.1
14.8
14.6
20.7
13.1
13.0
42.1
12.7
28.4
9.4
20.2
15.8
20.7
17.1
15.3
14.7
19.2
7.0
7.4
8.3
9.4
14.3 9.2 19.5 20.9 20.7 38.6
11.3 9.3 16.3 23.0 21.1 39.1
14.9 10.8 22.9 30.2 22.6 49.5
8.3 7.1 14.1 16.1 10.7 10.8
7.9 8.5 14.8 17.5 10.1 11.8
10.2 9.1 16.2 18.4 12.4 11.7
10.4 9.0 16.2 16.3 12.7 12.6
10.9
11.9
13.1
17.7
12.1
12.3
13.8
12.8
30.0
31.3
34.7
13.0
14.3
14.8
15.5
12.3
10.2
12.2
7.9
8.3
9.4
9.2
19.6
18.1
24.2
20.3
21.1
20.0
22.3
16.2
14.9
18.3
14.6
17.0
16.9
15.0
18.4
16.0
20.4
7.1
7.0
7.9
8.4
15.3 14.4 19.2
14.8 13.3 18.7
17.9 15.2 22.9
11.7 7.2 10.9
13.3 7.8 11.7
13.1 8.2 12.5
14.0 8.3 12.7
9.2
10.5
15.2
15.3
9.6
26.0
18.2
10.1
15.1
9.5
8.4
8.3
0.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
12.4 10.1 18.4 20.8 13.4 13.9 15.8
10.5 8.7 17.4 21.8 14.8 16.3 15.6
10.1 9.4 16.7 19.7 11.8 13.5 14.6
0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7
0.9 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9
1.3 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0
1.1 1.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1
16.2
16.6
15.0
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.2
10.7 25.1
10.2 25.6
9.5 22.8
0.8 0.7
1.0 0.8
1.2 1.1
1.5 1.1
17.9
16.6
15.7
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.2
10.2 15.1 10.8 14.1
9.2 14.5 9.9 14.0
9.5 13.7 9.7 13.1
0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6
0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9
1.0 0.9 1.3 1.0
0.9 1.0 1.4 1.1
10.3
21.9
17.6
20.9
22.6
24.2
13.7
12.5
1.1
14.0
1.4
1.7
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.5
10.2
11.1
11.3
14.1
1.8
1.7
1.9
5.5
4.5
6.0
7.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
6.1
6.1
7.5
7.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
8.2
8.7
10.4
11.1
1.4
1.4
1.4
7.8
8.5
9.3
7.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
8.5
10.0
10.3
11.4
1.2 1.3
1.3 1.4
1.3 1.3
10.0 7.5
13.3 8.5
13.9 8.3
15.0 10.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
8.7
9.7
9.5
10.9
1.6
1.5
1.8
6.0
7.2
8.3
9.2
1.4
1.2
1.4
8.5
9.7
10.2
9.4
1.2
1.4
1.3
7.9
10.0
10.6
10.3
1.3
1.2
1.3
11.7
13.8
16.2
16.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
8.1
8.8
9.3
9.2
1.6
1.5
1.8
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
8.8
9.8
10.4
11.1
16.4
12.5
11.5
16.6
15.1
17.5
20.1
13.1
15.9
11.1
14.8
16.4
42.2
14.4
14.9
17.7
14.6 10.0 9.1 14.5 12.0 13.7 19.5 11.2
14.9 10.9 9.6 15.5 12.0 15.3 18.4 11.7
16.9 10.7 10.8 17.7 13.3 16.3 20.2 14.2
13.4
15.2
15.1
10.5 13.9
10.2 11.7
12.0 13.6
13.4
14.5
15.1
20.5 11.6 13.7 13.8
20.2 11.3 14.3 14.3
23.3 12.5 14.5 15.4
41
1.3
10.5
Beverages
etc.
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Food Total 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
1999-00
2000-02
2001-02
2003
25.9
31.5
37.1
31.7
35.0
53.7
35.3
36.8
22.9
21.3
23.9
18.2
34.0
25.1
49.5
43.3
24.3
29.1
36.4
27.1
35.3
46.4
48.5
41.9
44.8
57.0
74.9
64.5
20.9
20.6
24.3
22.6
42.6
45.7
52.3
68.0
32.2
41.1
48.1
48.5
28.9
39.6
40.2
39.8
24.6
29.2
31.1
41.4
40.0
43.9
46.5
50.7
21.1
25.0
25.8
28.2
38.5
30.4
38.0
36.6
33.0
36.3
40.3
42.0
48.0
52.2
31.7
56.9
36.3
70.4
78.3
30.4
68.2
37.2
51.2
39.3
70.3
37.1
69.0
54.3
56.0
55.1
62.7
220.0
276.6
298.7
317.3
40.6
60.2
46.9
273.7
295.7
321.5
327.7
29.5
28.7
30.7
222.1
247.9
275.4
281.0
49.7
47.2
57.3
265.3
295.5
349.3
369.4
48.6
50.7
49.7
255.3
316.7
332.1
306.2
66.0
78.9
75.4
235.7
286.8
306.0
332.9
112.3
95.4
87.6
266.3
360.3
393.8
392.2
35.3
33.5
43.9
215.7
246.5
267.4
270.3
68.5
80.1
77.9
280.9
341.9
367.9
397.9
52.9
46.9
65.2
232.6
283.8
306.7
354.3
54.4
61.1
60.4
270.8
324.4
365.9
357.5
36.9
38.4
44.9
240.6
293.2
324.5
332.8
80.0
77.7
84.4
239.3
284.4
318.9
328.0
40.3
37.1
37.3
217.8
259.7
278.1
296.7
55.5
66.5
64.9
265.2
290.6
306.3
351.2
57.7
58.9
61.9
250.3
300.0
320.3
339.7
367.0 450.8 344.5 442.1 418.4 421.9 457.4 330.1 441.0 352.2 423.5 404.6 443.2 348.7 453.1 410.9
383.4 416.9 306.3 432.9 406.7 390.3 520.3 312.0 437.0 372.7 418.7 371.0 415.6 330.8 427.1 400.6
372.2 446.0 311.4 417.4 426.3 419.4 496.9 311.4 480.4 359.5 425.4 366.9 398.1 333.4 437.6 402.3
419.5 424.7 338.3 458.1 451.0 414.2 498.6 375.1 471.7 392.2 459.4 398.5 451.7 355.3 452.6 429.0
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005) 50, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57 and 59 Rounds
42
Annexure 2: State-wise Expenditure on Cereals (Rs/Capita/Annum)
Name of Years
the Major
States
Andhra
1993-94
Pradesh
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Assam
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Bihar
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Gujarat
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Haryana 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Karnataka 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Kerala
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
M.P.
1993-94
1995-96
Rice
784.97
915.79
1098.95
1115.50
1198.62
1302.07
1297.81
1064.88
1201.54
1313.02
1426.08
1665.71
1632.24
1536.95
627.97
779.61
741.64
779.61
820.01
819.41
762.57
172.81
211.88
259.71
253.14
313.86
300.60
276.87
64.50
60.97
63.04
65.35
108.56
88.72
120.85
429.60
506.27
524.16
540.71
744.68
650.97
684.20
774.01
982.48
992.83
987.23
1277.00
1128.89
1197.04
430.82
543.15
Rural (Rs/Capita/Annum)
Wheat Jowar Bajra Maize
15.82
12.90
27.26
23.37
29.33
34.44
34.44
37.73
33.71
51.72
44.42
61.22
67.42
68.52
318.85
348.79
412.93
406.11
534.26
478.52
511.38
223.93
260.19
305.22
318.73
390.78
396.86
336.38
520.88
510.90
673.85
669.23
714.50
676.29
719.98
54.77
82.03
65.35
71.92
110.50
135.33
115.62
59.63
74.97
88.84
96.51
175.61
139.35
159.18
293.30
355.61
37.73
32.49
20.20
27.63
19.23
37.73
39.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.22
0.37
0.49
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.00
42.60
50.87
42.35
36.27
47.34
66.81
37.73
10.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.12
0.24
160.64
244.13
257.52
253.99
181.21
221.25
194.72
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.03
16.19
3.65
4.38
0.37
1.46
2.19
3.29
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.24
138.74
147.87
199.47
142.27
243.03
155.41
211.51
0.00
29.94
21.66
30.43
15.09
10.59
25.07
3.65
11.20
10.34
4.87
2.43
5.48
2.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.87
6.69
2.43
0.73
0.61
5.84
0.49
0.61
1.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.24
0.24
29.21
24.58
22.39
19.35
26.29
22.15
29.09
34.08
52.94
36.39
26.04
58.42
46.85
68.40
0.00
4.38
0.37
0.37
8.64
6.33
4.50
7.30
14.73
1.46
13.51
5.72
2.80
3.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.12
27.99
25.56
Total
Cereals
861.64
982.12
1156.15
1186.09
1267.14
1403.32
1389.69
1102.60
1235.38
1364.87
1470.50
1727.17
1700.03
1605.83
979.69
1155.66
1179.03
1207.75
1380.81
1320.32
1303.65
617.02
725.33
844.48
780.83
1054.65
967.15
938.31
596.33
606.19
758.92
765.37
846.91
782.04
870.64
748.46
985.04
947.43
976.89
1166.01
1106.25
1139.96
833.65
1057.94
1081.91
1084.96
1453.10
1269.70
1356.96
805.65
949.50
43
Rice
814.17
986.26
1033.96
1114.16
1297.93
1311.80
1387.38
1010.11
1127.43
1245.96
1311.93
1572.49
1492.16
1469.77
602.42
651.10
739.94
726.79
730.57
703.91
720.83
209.32
235.49
272.61
336.74
332.12
317.88
362.79
137.52
108.43
131.80
117.32
165.63
163.93
199.71
589.03
720.95
781.44
876.48
893.64
878.67
970.31
705.86
945.61
916.40
929.30
1121.83
1124.39
1118.91
303.03
441.65
Urban (Rs/Capita/Annum)
Wheat Jowar Bajra Maize
58.42
77.16
87.14
89.57
129.73
131.44
124.38
113.18
105.15
153.22
81.05
199.22
216.02
216.99
377.27
431.67
517.59
556.41
572.36
559.82
615.56
350.50
421.45
529.15
544.97
591.95
545.95
585.86
456.38
542.54
623.96
772.06
664.00
691.01
746.63
122.92
140.81
158.58
203.48
225.02
299.50
232.69
74.24
105.51
127.18
153.95
212.61
198.37
212.61
412.56
461.36
14.60
8.28
7.18
23.61
11.68
21.78
27.99
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
15.82
7.79
10.22
23.73
18.38
12.78
20.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
82.76
139.59
108.19
98.33
117.81
158.09
99.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.95
1.10
0.00 0.00
0.24 0.00
0.00 1.10
2.68 0.00
0.37 0.00
0.24 0.37
0.37 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.24
0.00 0.12
0.00 0.00
0.00 3.65
0.00 6.94
0.00 4.75
0.00 1.10
0.37 13.39
0.00 3.77
0.00 3.53
48.68 2.43
54.64 2.19
70.95 7.67
51.84 8.03
61.95 6.09
91.15 11.68
72.78 6.57
1.22 1.22
2.43 0.00
0.73 0.37
0.37 0.00
3.29 0.85
0.61 4.14
3.53 0.73
0.00 1.22
0.37 0.12
1.34 0.12
0.00 5.23
5.23 0.37
0.12 2.31
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 2.43
0.37 1.95
Total
Cereals
890.84
1074.49
1131.32
1232.46
1443.97
1472.33
1545.10
1123.29
1232.70
1399.43
1392.98
1772.32
1708.30
1686.76
983.34
1089.70
1262.39
1284.30
1316.79
1267.38
1340.04
626.76
721.68
890.72
966.18
1010.72
979.56
1048.93
596.33
653.41
756.85
889.87
834.62
859.69
950.84
842.16
1080.09
1103.58
1223.69
1301.95
1390.67
1403.93
780.10
1051.61
1043.82
1087.15
1334.81
1323.24
1331.88
728.98
906.54
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Maharasht 1993-94
ra
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Orissa
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Punjab
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Rajasthan 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Tamil
1993-94
Nadu
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Uttar
1993-94
Pradesh
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
West
1993-94
Bengal
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
India
1993-94
502.26
555.56
201.41
280.03
255.69
239.75
275.77
297.68
317.64
351.35
415.85
395.65
1001.59
1322.03
1342.11
1294.52
1502.63
1164.43
1258.62
66.94
56.10
78.37
83.36
135.09
107.10
104.05
21.91
17.65
31.89
22.03
30.79
30.91
44.54
812.96
984.80
1121.47
1028.00
1036.88
1046.38
1048.93
272.61
314.59
366.93
318.73
388.71
343.19
396.38
1070.96
1222.11
1285.27
1369.25
1466.85
1410.38
1471.23
529.40
439.46
408.43
622.25
533.53
613.61
136.30
176.83
220.28
204.82
319.34
302.06
312.89
26.77
46.61
58.54
47.10
68.27
47.58
59.75
477.06
522.94
615.07
620.79
724.60
741.76
750.40
461.24
532.07
637.22
624.56
841.56
667.04
711.46
23.12
28.11
33.95
30.18
35.54
49.53
57.08
422.30
471.47
569.68
561.28
588.66
587.08
657.42
75.45
52.70
96.63
70.10
92.74
107.34
320.07
222.71
16.79
28.84
19.35
14.85
29.21
160.64
277.96
238.78
254.84
210.91
234.15
229.40
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.30
0.85
1.83
2.19
6.69
1.34
2.07
7.30
4.02
1.10
1.46
0.24
1.46
1.10
3.65
2.92
1.46
2.07
0.12
0.37
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.43
0.61
2.43
3.16
0.85
9.13
45.03
79.23
62.80
57.69
92.98
72.41
83.00
0.00
1.10
0.12
0.00
0.12
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.12
3.65
0.00
0.12
0.00
2.07
143.61
139.83
174.15
150.91
93.59
163.08
154.32
10.95
6.94
6.45
1.46
1.46
1.70
3.53
10.95
13.87
4.99
7.79
4.87
5.60
7.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
20.69
39.07
15.46
49.90
73.87
74.12
1.22
3.41
1.58
3.53
1.46
2.68
2.56
1.22
0.24
0.37
0.24
1.22
0.24
0.49
10.95
15.21
15.21
11.44
15.70
28.72
20.08
66.94
64.50
44.79
54.28
72.17
70.46
89.33
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.24
0.49
0.12
0.24
9.74
9.25
11.80
4.87
6.45
17.28
8.52
2.43
0.24
0.24
0.61
0.00
0.37
0.61
14.60
1003.78
1019.85
898.39
903.26
984.67
592.68
827.80
827.07
847.03
999.89
1037.61
1034.45
1042.97
1385.07
1413.67
1357.32
1590.50
1234.16
1333.83
554.95
594.38
712.19
715.60
875.63
877.58
877.70
707.08
756.49
895.47
860.05
1047.96
934.53
1002.08
883.54
1052.34
1199.72
1083.37
1117.81
1121.10
1141.42
721.68
816.85
956.44
897.42
988.81
953.64
1072.06
1148.85
1275.54
1382.27
1439.95
1559.59
1518.21
1792.03
828.78
44
413.05
396.86
280.40
317.76
322.75
313.99
404.77
453.82
484.24
539.37
536.58
526.60
827.56
996.97
1081.91
1225.28
1177.57
1157.98
1168.20
97.36
121.33
126.20
134.36
172.33
142.27
170.50
66.94
86.89
73.14
58.05
103.81
107.46
96.87
806.87
1028.37
1062.44
1012.18
1152.74
1096.52
1232.94
214.19
259.46
307.66
330.66
323.84
288.55
330.42
789.83
978.22
1009.26
1129.25
1228.56
1136.07
1100.65
464.89
546.19
525.14
675.31
661.68
702.57
337.11
427.78
484.12
490.33
560.31
556.17
553.49
142.39
181.33
244.86
221.86
322.26
302.79
287.82
453.94
510.04
606.31
732.03
711.58
698.07
773.89
562.25
611.18
769.63
749.55
886.46
834.01
837.54
60.85
61.46
89.33
86.29
125.23
112.57
145.31
451.51
507.85
619.09
614.71
648.66
641.72
743.47
194.72
219.06
255.20
212.49
350.62
334.43
330.90
288.43
6.57
37.48
12.29
4.38
6.69
66.94
92.86
76.43
91.88
88.72
90.91
76.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.49
0.00
0.00
0.61
0.00
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.24
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.26
0.37
0.00
0.49
0.37
0.49
12.17
9.13
14.48
7.30
21.91
17.52
20.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.49
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
20.69
12.66
41.99
28.96
22.51
31.64
33.22
0.00
0.12
0.37
0.00
2.56
0.24
0.12
1.22
0.61
1.70
0.00
0.61
2.68
0.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
6.09
1.58
1.58
6.09
4.87
13.87
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.49
0.00
0.00
7.30
5.84
9.74
0.37
7.18
3.53
9.74
6.09
7.06
10.71
4.75
13.27
21.54
26.17
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.22
0.85
2.31
0.73
4.62
1.58
1.46
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.12
0.00
0.37
1.22
967.76
960.94
974.70
989.42
1047.11
730.20
935.14
1029.22
1073.76
1211.77
1202.76
1178.54
973.60
1180.12
1329.94
1447.62
1506.16
1463.32
1458.21
558.60
637.71
742.25
866.75
891.21
844.11
954.61
657.18
717.79
895.96
841.31
1026.42
995.51
994.17
871.37
1092.50
1157.73
1101.75
1292.21
1213.84
1388.72
669.35
768.90
931.25
946.10
978.71
935.02
1076.44
984.55
1197.28
1265.07
1342.84
1579.42
1471.35
1431.92
782.53
Total
1995-96 629.55 247.29 42.84 25.92 16.79 976.16 582.70 336.99 24.10 5.60
1997 635.15 324.09 40.77 26.29 14.73 1052.46 601.93 406.84 19.47 8.88
1998 674.22 305.22 39.31 20.20 12.17 1061.35 635.40 415.12 24.46 5.23
2000-02 761.23 365.83 27.63 24.10 15.82 1206.29 711.70 473.78 23.12 8.52
2001-02 743.83 335.65 31.89 21.91 18.26 1161.87 674.70 468.06 28.11 10.10
2003 747.85 379.46 33.47 26.53 19.59 1219.31 699.41 498.60 22.15 9.74
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005) 50, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57 and 59 Rounds
1.22
2.56
1.46
2.80
3.04
3.16
956.08
1043.82
1084.47
1225.15
1189.86
1240.73
Annexure 3: State-wise Cereal Consumption in India (Kg/Capita/Annum)
Name of Years
the Major
States
Andhra
1993-94
Pradesh 1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Rice
139.96
141.54
155.53
146.89
132.17
135.94
135.94
Rural (Kg/Capita/ Annum)
Wheat Jowar Bajara Maize Total
Cereals
2.43 12.17 1.22 1.22 161.86
1.58
7.30 0.97 0.24 155.17
2.80
3.77 0.12 0.12 163.81
2.56
5.11 0.24 1.22 158.45
2.43
3.53 0.37 0.12 141.78
2.68
7.06 0.61 0.12 150.91
2.56
6.21 0.12 0.24 147.50
122.92
120.85
115.49
121.82
117.32
112.45
115.01
Urban (Kg/Capita/ Annum)
Wheat Jowar Bajara Maize Total
Cereals
9.74
3.65 0.00 0.00 137.52
11.07 1.34 0.12 0.00 133.87
9.49
1.22 0.00 0.12 126.69
11.20 3.53 0.37 0.00 137.52
10.22 1.58 0.12 0.00 129.73
10.47 3.53 0.00 0.00 127.54
8.88
3.77 0.00 0.00 128.39
Rice
Assam
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
152.13
141.05
143.61
146.53
155.29
153.46
148.96
8.52
4.99
7.18
6.21
8.15
7.30
8.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
160.64
146.04
150.79
152.86
163.56
160.77
157.24
131.44
119.51
122.55
125.72
128.15
124.62
124.86
15.82
13.02
15.21
8.15
17.52
18.62
17.89
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
147.26
132.53
137.76
133.87
145.67
143.24
142.75
Bihar
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
96.14
104.78
96.87
98.58
91.40
96.99
88.48
68.15
65.72
64.87
67.91
81.42
70.71
72.41
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.52
5.48
4.75
4.38
5.72
4.38
5.72
174.03
176.47
167.09
171.35
178.53
172.08
166.73
82.76
78.01
81.42
81.05
76.31
70.71
78.01
71.80
74.48
71.44
80.20
78.86
75.58
77.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
1.22
1.58
0.97
0.24
2.92
0.73
0.61
155.78
154.07
153.83
161.62
158.21
146.89
156.38
Gujarat
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
24.34
24.83
28.11
26.04
27.99
24.71
24.10
48.68
49.90
46.25
47.34
50.26
49.05
41.01
10.95
8.88
7.67
5.60
5.60
9.61
5.23
35.29 9.74 130.22 25.56
27.38 11.20 122.43 22.51
34.56 7.79 124.74 24.83
26.53 6.45 112.82 27.14
36.51 9.01 129.49 23.61
25.56 7.79 116.83 22.51
31.76 13.14 116.47 26.04
68.15
72.90
69.13
69.86
64.14
60.97
60.00
3.65
1.22
1.46
2.80
2.19
1.46
2.68
12.17
9.61
11.93
8.64
8.76
12.66
9.86
0.00
0.49
1.34
1.58
0.85
1.70
0.97
109.53
106.61
108.68
110.26
99.55
99.43
99.55
Haryana
1993-94 8.52
1995-96 7.79
1997 7.06
1998 6.45
2000-02 9.86
2001-02 7.30
2003 10.34
144.82
126.45
127.30
125.35
123.16
110.50
107.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.65
7.67
5.35
7.79
1.95
2.43
4.99
0.00
0.73
0.12
0.12
1.22
0.97
0.73
156.99
142.63
139.83
139.71
136.18
121.09
123.65
18.26
9.49
12.66
11.32
12.54
11.32
14.48
108.31
117.44
104.30
124.26
97.24
94.56
97.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
1.22
0.61
0.12
0.00
0.37
0.12
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.49
0.12
127.79
127.54
117.20
135.57
110.38
106.24
112.45
Karnataka 1993-94 65.72
1995-96 64.01
10.95
11.44
48.68
38.70
1.22
2.31
2.43
3.04
160.64 77.89
150.30 75.09
19.47
18.86
20.69
20.81
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
132.65
131.68
45
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
61.95
59.51
69.98
64.87
70.59
8.28
9.49
11.56
14.36
11.56
47.10
41.01
30.30
34.81
26.41
2.43
0.97
0.49
0.97
0.37
0.37
2.92
1.22
0.61
0.61
142.88
136.43
138.13
135.70
134.60
76.79
80.93
68.03
63.89
71.80
17.16
19.96
19.96
24.10
18.26
16.43
15.46
18.26
20.57
12.17
0.24
0.00
1.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.34
0.12
0.49
0.00
122.80
126.32
116.71
118.78
117.93
Kerala
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
113.18
111.72
115.25
110.14
107.83
102.23
106.00
9.74
10.22
10.10
10.34
13.51
10.59
11.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
122.92
121.94
125.35
120.48
121.33
113.06
117.93
103.45
104.54
98.33
100.28
91.03
94.68
92.13
12.17
14.24
14.24
17.40
15.33
14.24
15.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
115.62
118.90
112.45
117.81
106.37
108.92
107.22
M.P.
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
73.02 70.59 17.04
77.40 72.29 4.02
65.11 75.70 3.65
68.88 71.07 6.57
23.24 100.28 3.77
34.08 82.63 3.29
29.33 95.17 6.21
1.22
1.70
0.12
0.49
0.61
0.12
1.83
9.74
6.09
8.28
3.53
9.37
15.58
15.09
172.81
161.98
153.83
152.25
137.76
135.82
148.35
43.81
53.18
44.42
38.09
24.22
27.26
27.26
88.84
85.80
81.90
83.73
94.80
91.52
92.49
3.65
0.24
1.34
8.28
1.83
0.97
1.46
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.22
0.49
0.37
0.37
1.10
0.97
2.68
137.52
139.71
128.15
130.46
122.19
120.73
124.01
Maharash 1993-94 36.51
tra
1995-96 34.44
1997 34.32
1998 35.66
2000-02 33.59
2001-02 40.65
2003 39.19
26.77
30.18
32.62
28.84
41.38
37.36
39.07
58.42
54.03
51.84
49.53
37.48
41.26
38.46
14.60
15.21
11.93
11.07
15.33
12.17
13.14
0.00
0.73
0.37
0.85
0.37
0.49
0.49
138.74
137.40
132.29
127.18
131.56
133.38
131.68
38.94
39.31
40.04
39.80
41.01
39.67
39.67
53.55
59.27
54.64
53.06
56.10
53.67
52.82
18.26
14.12
12.78
13.87
11.68
11.93
9.98
3.65
1.46
2.56
1.22
3.16
2.68
2.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
114.40
114.28
110.02
107.83
111.96
108.07
105.51
Orissa
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
4.87
6.82
6.57
5.23
6.82
4.38
5.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.12
193.50
204.58
191.92
193.14
184.62
162.83
178.05
137.52
136.18
130.10
137.76
121.09
126.81
129.73
24.34
26.17
28.11
24.58
29.69
27.02
25.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
163.08
162.83
158.82
162.47
152.00
154.19
155.90
Punjab
1993-94 8.52 120.48
1995-96 6.45 118.05
1997 8.15 113.91
1998 7.91 109.29
2000-02 11.80 112.69
2001-02 9.37 112.33
2003 8.88 112.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
2.43
2.68
2.31
1.58
2.19
4.02
2.43
131.44
127.18
125.11
118.90
126.69
125.84
124.13
10.95 97.36
11.93 100.40
10.95 95.05
11.44 106.12
13.51 96.75
11.68 96.39
12.54 97.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.22
0.85
1.46
0.00
0.73
0.37
0.97
109.53
113.30
107.46
117.68
111.11
108.43
111.11
114.40
115.37
111.96
105.88
128.27
100.04
105.51
2.43
0.24
0.37
0.61
1.10
0.24
0.37
38.94
29.45
36.39
32.62
17.28
39.67
29.82
20.69
15.09
9.74
12.66
13.02
14.24
17.16
181.33
162.10
162.71
154.80
162.35
156.75
156.51
7.30
7.18
5.48
3.65
6.69
7.18
5.84
126.57
119.63
119.02
115.13
118.41
115.13
108.80
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.87
2.80
8.03
6.09
4.14
7.30
5.72
1.22
1.46
2.19
1.10
2.31
4.26
4.99
139.96
130.95
134.84
125.96
131.68
133.99
125.35
3.65
2.43
2.43
0.00
142.39 110.75 10.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
122.92
Rajasthan 1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
Tamil
184.98
193.99
182.18
184.13
173.91
153.83
170.14
2.43
1.58
3.16
1.83
2.31
2.19
3.41
1993-94 125.35
46
Nadu
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
122.31
137.64
128.88
119.51
119.14
115.37
4.26
3.53
3.77
2.56
3.65
4.26
0.73
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.24
0.12
1.34
1.34
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.49
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
134.11
149.69
137.28
129.98
127.05
124.50
112.45
109.53
106.97
104.05
100.40
102.11
Uttar
Pradesh
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
48.68
48.07
53.06
46.85
50.02
46.37
59.51
110.75
109.29
105.51
104.05
102.23
99.67
103.08
1.22
0.85
0.24
0.49
0.00
0.12
0.24
3.65
4.14
1.22
2.68
1.34
1.34
1.58
3.65
2.56
2.43
1.22
1.70
3.77
1.58
169.16
166.36
162.96
156.14
155.29
151.27
166.36
West
Bengal
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
166.73
160.16
159.06
157.11
154.68
146.16
152.98
14.60
8.40
12.90
10.10
10.83
13.14
10.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
India
Total
1993-94
1995-96
1997
1998
2000-02
2001-02
2003
85.19
85.07
81.78
83.24
81.54
82.39
83.12
53.55
51.36
55.25
52.09
55.86
50.14
51.36
9.74
8.03
8.15
7.18
4.75
5.35
5.35
6.09
5.48
5.23
4.26
4.02
4.38
4.50
4.87
3.77
3.04
2.68
2.92
3.65
3.77
8.64
9.25
7.91
8.64
7.42
9.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
121.70
119.63
115.37
114.28
108.43
112.69
31.64 102.23
30.91 99.92
35.29 95.05
40.65 97.36
32.25 93.59
28.60 91.52
31.76 97.85
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.37
0.00
0.12
0.61
0.12
1.22
0.24
0.49
0.12
0.97
0.24
0.24
135.09
131.19
131.19
138.01
127.05
120.97
129.98
182.55
168.68
171.96
167.22
165.51
159.43
163.93
105.88
106.85
106.12
107.58
103.81
94.56
92.98
35.29
34.56
32.37
25.56
34.93
32.37
32.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
141.17
141.42
138.62
133.26
138.74
127.18
125.47
163.08
156.87
156.02
151.76
151.27
147.87
150.18
64.50
64.99
62.68
64.14
61.34
57.44
58.66
57.20
57.56
56.23
56.96
55.62
54.89
55.86
4.87
3.65
3.16
3.89
3.16
3.77
2.92
1.22
0.97
1.58
0.85
1.34
1.58
1.46
0.00
0.24
0.49
0.24
0.49
0.49
0.61
129.00
128.52
124.99
126.81
122.67
119.14
120.48
Source: NSSO (1996, 1998, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005) 50, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57 and 59 Rounds
47