Adaptive Management of American Oystercatchers Within the National Seashore System Shiloh Schulte Department of Zoology, North Carolina State University, Box 7617, Raleigh, NC 27695 Dissertation Committee: Theodore R. Simons: Professor of Zoology and Forestry. USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, North Carolina State University Kenneth H. Pollock: Professor of Zoology, Biomathematics and Statistics. North Carolina State University Jaime A. Collazo: Professor of Zoology and Forestry. USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, North Carolina State University Stephen Brown: Director, Shorebird Research and Conservation, Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences, Manomet, Massachusetts. Background and Problem Description Beachfront development along the Atlantic coast is widespread and expected to increase significantly in the next decade, particularly in the southeastern states (Culliton et al. 1990). Natural communities along the coast are at increasing risk from habitat fragmentation, human recreational activity, and introduced predators. Beach nesting shorebirds are increasingly confined to protected areas like the National Seashores, as human use and recreational pressures on these lands grow with each passing year. American Oystercatchers are large, conspicuous shorebirds that nest from Nova Scotia to Mexico (Figure 1). The US Shorebird Conservation Plan lists eastern American Oystercatchers Haematopus palliatus palliatus as a high priority species (Brown et al. 2001), in part because of significant threats from heavy recreational use of coastal breeding habitats, and generally low reproductive success. Because American Oystercatchers are restricted to a narrow band of coastal habitat, they are particularly sensitive to human disturbance and habitat change (Nol 2000, Davis et al, 2001). Oystercatchers nest from April to August, which means they often compete directly with humans for barrier beach habitat. As birds appear to be expanding their range in the Northeast (Nol et al 2000) populations are simultaneously declining in Mid-Atlantic core breeding areas (Mawhinney and Bennedict 1999, Davis et al. 2001). A recent (2002/3) aerial survey of the species’ winter range in the United States resulted in a population estimate of only 10971 +/-298 individuals, with 7500-8000 wintering on the Atlantic Coast (Brown et al. 2003). The small population size, low observed reproductive success, and restricted range, highlight the need for a closer examination of Oystercatcher population dynamics. There is currently no coordinated long-term monitoring effort underway to determine population trends for the American Oystercatcher, and reliable estimates of key demographic parameters such as juvenile and adult survivorship are lacking. The network of National Seashores that extend from Cape Cod to Padre Island presents a unique opportunity for coordinated research and management of the species across much of its breeding and wintering range. Though widely separated, the Seashores share common habitat characteristics and management issues. All nine National Seashores along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts have identified issues related to shorebird management as important priorities in their natural resource management plans. The dynamic barrier beaches that characterize these Parks provide important shorebird nesting habitat, but they also draw large numbers of recreational visitors, particularly during the summer months when the birds are nesting. Perhaps more importantly, many predators of shorebird eggs and young (feral cats, raccoons, and foxes) thrive in the presence of humans. The goals of the National Park Service Biological Inventories Project include describing the distribution and abundance of species of special concern and designing long-term monitoring plans for these species. The American Oystercatcher is an ideal species to serve as the focus of a large scale multi-park research and monitoring initiative for several reasons: 1) Oystercatchers breed on every National Seashore from Cape Cod to Padre Island. 2) They are sensitive to a variety of factors, including; human recreational use of beaches, introduced predators, and shoreline erosion, which are all of management concern on National Seashores. 3) They are conspicuous and long-lived, which facilitates detection and long-term monitoring. These factors combine to make American Oystercatchers excellent indicators of the health of beachfront natural communities on National Seashores. 1 This proposal seeks support for a study of the distribution, movement patterns, and population dynamics of the American Oystercatcher to determine specific management concerns and necessary actions for the protection of this species, and to incorporate American Oystercatchers as a component of long-term natural resource monitoring within the National Seashore system. Objectives: This study has two primary objectives. The first objective is to establish reliable estimates of key demographic parameters, including reproductive success, and survival rates of adults, sub-adults, and juveniles. These estimates will be used to construct a demographic model and project population trends for eastern American Oystercatchers. Information is currently lacking about adult and juvenile dispersal patterns and direct estimates of survival are lacking as well. These data are essential to developing conservation strategies for the species. Four years of color-banding adults and juveniles on Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras have demonstrated that long-term studies of adult and juvenile survival and movement are feasible. Information gained from these studies will be critical to understanding the status and trends of Oystercatcher populations over time, and for evaluating sustainable fecundity and survival rates in remaining populations. The second objective is to use the baseline population projection data to assess and prioritize management objectives for the species. A network of Oystercatcher monitoring programs will be established on National Seashores along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. These programs will build on eight years of research conducted at Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores by Dr. Ted Simons and his students in the cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at North Carolina State University. Ultimately, these Oystercatcher monitoring programs will become part of long-term natural resource monitoring at each National Seashore. Collectively, they will contribute substantially to the management and conservation of the species in the Eastern United States. This proposal is ambitious in scope, but entirely feasible to implement. My advisor, Dr. Ted Simons, is the former Director of the Cooperative Park Studies Unit at NC State and he has worked extensively with National Seashores over the past 20 years. He is currently a member of the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and has studied Oystercatcher population dynamics on Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout for eight years. Dr. Simons currently has funding for four years of Oystercatcher research in North Carolina. With the Canon National Parks Science Scholars Grant I could expand the spatial and temporal scale of this work to meet the objectives of this proposal. While working at the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences I helped design and conduct a series of extensive aerial surveys covering the entire winter range of the eastern American Oystercatcher in the United States. Later, I designed and implemented the American Oystercatcher monitoring plan at Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge, which included nest and chick monitoring, banding, and radio telemetry. Research permits have already been obtained for Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores and the resource managers at Cape Cod, Fire Island, Cape Hatteras, Cape Lookout, Assateague Island, and Gulf Islands National Seashores have all expressed strong interest in this proposal. I have already begun a dialogue with resource management staff regarding ways in which Oystercatcher monitoring protocols could be integrated with existing long-term monitoring programs. With the combined skill set and interest level of the principals involved, I submit that this project is not only important and feasible, but that now is precisely the time to implement it. 2 Research Methods and Data Analysis Study Areas: Complete breeding surveys and productivity monitoring will take place at Cape Cod, Fire Island, Assateague Island, Cape Hatteras, Cape Lookout, Cumberland Island, Canaveral, Gulf Islands and Padre Island National Seashores (Figure 1). The majority of the banding and radio telemetry work will occur on Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores which comprise over 160km of barrier island habitat and support a population of approximately 90 breeding pairs of Oystercatchers. Productivity Monitoring: Field Technicians will be hired to conduct Oystercatcher breeding surveys and monitor Oystercatcher nests and young at participating National Seashores. Technicians will be trained in nest searching techniques including watching for behavioral cues from the birds that facilitate nest detection. Although Oystercatchers do not usually employ “broken-wing” distraction displays like many smaller shorebirds, they do exhibit easily identifiable behaviors such as false incubating and alarm calling as one approaches the nest area. Once in the nest area, nest scrapes will be located by following Oystercatcher tracks or by systematic searching in marsh habitat. Technicians will observe minimal site disturbance practices including using natural features as nest markers, never walking directly to a nest and spending minimal time in the nest area. Once located, nests will be monitored every 2-4 days until hatching or nest failure. If a nest fails, the observer will attempt to determine the cause by searching the nest area for predator tracks or signs of human activity that may have caused the failure. In addition, we may employ “washover cups” to determine if the nest was lost due to a high water event. Washover cups are small covered containers with holes punctured in the sides. These containers are placed in the ground near the nest and parallel to the water. If a flood event reaches the height of the nest during the incubation period the cup will fill with salt water. The status of each nest will be recorded on each visit and will be used to calculate a Mayfield estimate of daily survival (Mayfield 1975). If a nest hatches, the status and number of young will be recorded every 2-4 days until fledging or loss of the chicks. Observers will opportunistically record any information on causes of chick mortality, but due to difficulties in following oystercatcher chicks and determining when and why they disappear, estimates of daily chick survival rates and causes of mortality will be determined primarily through radio telemetry and banding work at Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores. Pre-fledging juvenile survival rates and causes of mortality are very difficult to determine for precocial shorebird chicks. Chicks often leave the nest bowl within a few hours of hatching, after which they are cryptic and highly mobile. If a chick is lost to predators, exposure, or other factors it is usually impossible to determine the chick’s state. Because much of the reduction in annual productivity occurs at this stage several recent studies have stressed the need for a better understanding of the factors affecting chick mortality (Davis et al. 2001, McGowan, 2004). This information is necessary for the formulation of appropriate management strategies to reduce chick mortality rates and will be important in the development of a demographic model. Radio transmitters produced by Holohil Systems Ltd (model LB-2N 0. 4g) will be attached to chicks shortly after they leave the nest and become mobile (1-3 days after hatch). The transmitters are designed to be glued to the chick’s back feathers and will be camouflaged appropriately. Marked chicks will be re-located every 2-4 days through the pre-fledging period. 3 If a chick dies or disappears before fledging, the transmitter will be located to determine the cause of mortality. Surviving chicks will be recaptured and color-banded shortly before fledging (26-30 days). Due to the high cost of telemetry both in time and money, this portion of the study will be confined to Oystercatcher chicks on Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores and nearby dredge spoil islands. Mark-Re-sight Estimates of adult and sub-adult survival and recruitment rates will be obtained through a cooperative mark-recapture study. Color-banding efforts began in 1999 on Cape Lookout and in 2002 on Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Since then, 89 adult and juvenile oystercatchers have been banded on both Seashores. The South Carolina Department of Natural Resources began winter banding of Oystercatchers in 2002 using cannon nets and now has over 200 birds banded. Dozens more have been banded during recent efforts in Georgia, Virginia, and Massachusetts. The goal of this widespread banding effort is to establish a color-banded population to study dispersal patterns and determine survival rates for each age class. Over the past five years a broad collective, grass-roots effort has evolved among researchers working with American Oystercatchers to promote data sharing and standardization of methods. In 2004, with the cooperation of researchers in state and private organizations, a central database of all color-banded Oystercatchers was compiled at North Carolina State University (NCSU), including the date and location of every known re-sighting (Figure 2). Observers report re-sightings of banded birds through a website set up for this purpose. This database will be updated after each field season to include new banded birds from each location. The color-banding effort on Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores will be expanded over the next three years. Breeding adult birds will be captured using a decoy and noose-carpet technique developed at NCSU (McGowan and Simons, in press) and used successfully in North Carolina, Massachusetts, Georgia and South Carolina. This trapping method is based on the bal-chatri raptor trap (Bub 1991) and relies on the aggressive territoriality of the American Oystercatcher. A remote-control decoy and call playback device surrounded by concealed noose carpets is set up within an Oystercatcher territory. When the pair arrives to display to the decoy their feet become entangled in the nooses. This method eliminates disturbance at the nest site and is much more effective then more conventional trapping methods such as walk-in or bow traps (McGowan and Simons, in press). Adults and juveniles will be individually marked with color-bands inscribed with alphanumeric codes in accordance with a banding scheme recently adopted by all researchers working with American Oystercatchers. Under the scheme, each state was assigned a color and a sequence of 625 individual 2-digit codes to be used on all Oystercatchers banded in the state. Captured birds will be sexed and assigned to an age class using morphological measurements (Nol and Humphrey 1994). Systematic re-sighting efforts will be divided into breeding and non-breeding components to obtain bi-annual survival rates for adults and sub-adults. Breeding season re-sighting efforts will coincide with complete annual breeding pair surveys on the Seashores (May-June). All breeding and non-breeding adults and sub-adults will be checked for color-bands by trained field technicians. The non-breeding season re-sighting period will be November-February and will focus on the Oystercatcher population in the southeastern states, the heart of the wintering range (Brown et al. 2003). Winter re-sighting will be a cooperative effort between researchers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. In 2002 and 2003 the South Carolina and Georgia Departments of Natural Resources conducted comprehensive re-sighting surveys in their respective states. In 2004 we will initiate winter re-sighting surveys in North Carolina based on 4 wintering flock locations identified in a 2002-2003 aerial survey (Brown et al. 2003) and coordinate closely with efforts in South Carolina and Georgia. These comprehensive, coordinated re-sighting surveys will ensure equal detection probabilities for banded Oystercatchers in the Southeast wintering population. Population Modeling A series of demographic models will be constructed to achieve the following goals: (1) project population trajectory over time, (2) determine the sensitivity of the population growth rate to each parameter and determine parameter values necessary to prevent population decline, and (3) identify spatial variation in demographic rates among Oystercatcher populations. The models will be parameterized with survival and stage transition estimates obtained through the cooperative mark-recapture effort and estimates of fecundity from over 1000 nesting attempts monitored in North Carolina, Massachusetts and Virginia from 1999-2003 (Simons unpubl. data). I will construct a preliminary stage-based model with the following demographic parameters: fecundity, juvenile survival, subadult survival without transition, subadult survival with transition to adult, and adult survival. Subadult survival is divided into two components because subadults may survive from year i to year i + 1 without establishing a breeding territory and transitioning to the adult stage. Survival estimates will be generated using program MARK (White and Burnham 1999). Four alternative models will be compared using a Jolly-Seber reduced parameter model for open populations (Jolly 1965, Seber 1965) to test whether survival (φ) and re-sighting (ρ) probabilities are constant or vary over time (φtρt, φtρ, φρt, φρ). Model complexity will increase as movement and spatial variation in demographic rates are incorporated. I will use a multistate 3-sample mark-resight model to estimate movement probabilities between sub-populations for birds in each stage. Sub-populations will be defined by state boundaries. This model will be parameterized with spatial transition and sighting probabilities defined as: i,j,k = probability that a bird alive and present in state j during year i survives and is present in state k during year i + 1 Pi,j = Probability that a bird present in region j during year i is sighted during that period. Hestbeck and Nichols (1991) used a similar approach to estimate between-region movement of individually marked Canada Geese wintering in the Atlantic states. I recognize there are many challenges involved in estimating demographic parameters and developing population models. Estimating true survival and transition rates is problematic because mortality is confounded with emigration unless the study area encompasses the entire range of habitats and locations where a banded bird could be. Oystercatchers often use remote areas that are difficult to access, particularly in the winter (Brown at al. , 2003). Oystercatchers are also migratory in the northern part of their range, which means the population is only stable enough to survey during mid-summer and mid-winter. Despite these complications I believe there is a good chance of success. Oystercatchers are confined to a narrow band of coastal habitat throughout the year, which greatly reduces the required search area. The distribution of wintering flocks is well understood thanks to a comprehensive 2002-2003 aerial survey by the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences (Brown et al. 2003), and consistent re-sighting efforts by the South Carolina and Georgia Departments of Natural Resources show that state-wide ground surveys are possible. This information will allow us to implement a cost-effective sampling plan that reduces bias and makes the best use of survey time. It is important to remember that this three-year study is not intended to result in a 5 complete understanding of all aspects of Oystercatcher population dynamics. My goal is to make the best use of the data available to move us toward a better understanding of this complex species, and to provide good information on which to base long term monitoring and management. Expected Results and Products When searching for answers to ecological questions it is vital to study the system in question at an appropriate scale. In Large Scale Ecology and Conservation Biology, Robert May suggests there is an “increasing need for ecologists in general and conservation biologists in particular, to deal with larger spatial scales than most of us are used to, or happy with”. American Oystercatchers are highly mobile, long-lived, and occur along both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. By including nine National Seashores in this multi-Park effort I believe this study of Oystercatcher population dynamics will take place at a scale that is appropriate to the questions asked. A series of spatially explicit demographic models will be constructed to project Oystercatcher population trajectories and identify minimum survival and fecundity rates needed to prevent population decline. Modeling local differences in demographic rates and movement probabilities will permit an examination of source-sink dynamics in eastern American Oystercatcher populations. Sub-populations will be classified as sources or sinks based on whether local fecundity is high enough to offset mortality without immigration (Pulliam 1988). Spatially explicit demographic modeling has significant advantages over simple abundance estimates as it allows us to identify the relative contribution of each region to the growth or decline of the overall population (Pulliam 1988, Sherry and Holmes 1995). This work will lay the foundation for understanding on a sufficiently large scale, the dynamic, spatially variable processes of reproduction, dispersal, movement, and survival in the American Oystercatcher population This research is expected to produce quantitative estimates of the abundance, distribution, reproductive success, survival, and population trend of American Oystercatchers breeding on the National Seashores. The study will establish standard protocols for monitoring Oystercatcher nesting success which will provide the basis for incorporating Oystercatcher population monitoring as a component of long-term natural resource monitoring on the National Seashores. The intended users of project results and products are the resource management staff of the National Seashores and the Regional and Network Coordinators for the National Park Service Biological Inventory and Monitoring Project, as well as other State and private natural resource managers who have an interest in the conservation of shorebird populations. The project results will allow managers to: Produce accurate distribution maps and population estimates of American Oystercatchers breeding at each National Seashore on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Assess how human-related disturbance and introduced predators are affecting the distribution, abundance, productivity, and persistence of Oystercatcher populations. Estimate the importance of the National Seashore system in supporting continental populations of American Oystercatchers. Integrate American Oystercatcher population monitoring into the long-term natural resource monitoring programs on the National Seashores. Meet the goals of the Biological Inventory Project for the Gulf Coast, Southeast Coast, and Northeast Coastal and Barrier I&M Networks. 6 Adaptive Management Environmental and social conditions in coastal regions are constantly changing. The natural process of beach migration, the sea level rise predicted by many scientists (Titus, 1990), and an increasing human presence (Culliton et al 1990) are examples of factors that affect natural resources in the Parks and can introduce uncertainty into the process of natural resource managment. Adaptive management is an iterative process of hypothesis driven design, implementation, and evaluation of alternative management practices. An adaptive management strategy reduces uncertainty about the effects of management actions and can effectively identify the optimal course of action to achieve a stated long-term objective (Johnson and Case, 2000). Adaptive management holds great promise for conserving natural resources as the Parks come under increasing pressure from many sources. Adaptive management of American Oystercatchers on the National Seashores could serve as a model for a broader adoption of this concept within the National Park System. This study will lay the groundwork for an adaptive management strategy for American Oystercatchers on the National Seashores. Critical values for survival and fecundity determined through demographic modeling will be used to set management goals and objectives, while the integrated resource monitoring program will assess the effects of management actions. For example, the NPS could set an objective of maintaining or increasing current Oystercatcher populations on the National Seashores. A specific management goal would be to maintain an annual fecundity (number of chicks fledged per pair) equal to or exceeding the critical level identified in this study through demographic modeling. Hypotheses about the effects of specific management actions on fledging rates would be generated and the actions implemented in such a way as to permit testing of the hypotheses. For instance, the hypothesis that meso-carnivore trapping prior to the nesting season increases Oystercatcher fecundity could be examined by randomly assigning nesting areas to trapping or control treatments. The effect of the management action on fecundity would be evaluated using Oystercatcher productivity monitoring protocols developed during this study and the null hypothesis accepted or rejected based on differences in fecundity in control and treatment groups. This process could be used to quantify the effects of off road vehicle traffic, shoreline erosion, and other management issues. This adaptive management approach is an iterative process through which management actions are constantly evaluated and adjusted to more efficiently address explicit management objectives. Schedule for completion of Research: Summer 2004 – Expand banding program at Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores. Continue comprehensive nest monitoring program in cooperation with both Seashores. Begin radio-telemetry study of juveniles and sub-adults to determine survivorship and causes of mortality. Begin preliminary surveys at other seashores Summer 2005 – Hire Field Techs for Fire Island, Cape Cod, Cape Hatteras, etc. Establish standardized protocols for all seashores. Conduct complete AMOY breeding survey and monitor all nests at these sites for success rates and causes of failure. Begin second year of survivorship study with the radio/gps-telemetry work. Fall/Spring 2005-2006 – Begin building preliminary demographic model using survival rates from the telemetry work and re-sighting database. Summer 2006 – Expand monitoring program to other seashores/recreation areas. Adjust standardized protocols as appropriate at each seashore. Fall/Spring 2006-2007 – Complete demographic model and population viability analysis for the eastern American Oystercatcher. Produce a report that summarizes monitoring efforts and provides detailed management recommendations for each National Seashore. 7 References Brown, S, C. Hickey, B. Harrington, and R. Gill, Eds. 2001. The U. S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, 2nd ed. Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences, Manomet, MA. Brown, S, S. Schulte, B. Harrington, B. Winn, J. Bart and M. Howe. 2003. 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