Doctoral Thesis Research Proposal (2013)
PhD thesis proposal for the School of Geography
Environment and Earth Sciences at the University of Carlifornia, Berkley
Using glacier models to reconstruct climate change over the last 13,000 years
Proposal for Thesis March, 2013
Ph. D. Candidate (Geology) - Victoria Hilton Doctoral Thesis Research Proposal (2010)
School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, University of Carlifornia
Ph. D. Supervisors -
I. ABSTRACT
Instrumental weather data in New Zealand extend back to about 1860 AD, leaving
great uncertainties about longer-term natural climate variability. Glaciers exhibit one of the
clearest and most direct responses to climate change and past glacier extents afford
an opportunity to decipher paleoclimate. Now that the accuracy and precision of moraine
chronologies has improved through advances in surface exposure dating (SED) techniques,
multi-proxy and global climate comparisons have become more refined. Interhemispheric climate
event relationships are valuable when looking for causes or triggers of climate
change; however, the interpreted temperature changes from glacier fluctuations are generally
qualitative rather than quantitative. Here we use numerical modelling
as a tool to quantify paleoclimate fluctuations with a combination of mapped moraine positions, surface
exposure dating chronologies, and modern and proxy climate data for model construction and tuning.
We will evaluate the effects that precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation have on
glaciers through empirical field evidence and numerical modelling from four sites distributed throughout
the Southern Alps of New Zealand. This approach will allow us to constrain an
envelope of possible climatic conditions necessary for the glacier to advance and stabilise at
specified lengths. Detailed moraine chronologies now exist at three of these sites and a
multiple-year glacier mass balance study exists at the fourth site. The modelling results have
the potential to help us better understand (1) the regionality and seasonality of past climate
change within New Zealand, (2) what climatic signals the glaciers are responding to, and (3)
interhemispheric differences in glacier extent, such as why the "Little Ice Age" in New
Zealand was such a minor event compared to others during the Holocene.
II. TOPIC DEVELOPMENT
A) Background
Recent technological advances in surface exposure dating (SED) methods have allowed for
more precise moraine chronologies than previously possible (Putnam et al., in press; Putnam
et al., in prep; Schaefer et al., 2009). These chronologies offer the unique opportunity for
paleoclimate reconstructions with highly accurate ages.
Previous paleoclimate investigations of these moraines focused on geometric reconstructions assuming
an accumulation area ratio (AAR) of 0.66 (Chinn, 2006; Kaplan et al., submitted; Putnam et al., in prep) a
nd resulted in equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates (Porter, 1975). Although these
are reasonable estimates, they can only represent a ‘snapshot’ or steady state reconstruction and canno
t account for the time-dependent evolution of glacier length. Moreover, they do
not account for valley-specific topography, shading, local mass balance, or glacier response time
(Oerlemans, 2005). Here we implement numerical glacier models, based on the physics of
glacier dynamics and modern climate data to interpret paleoclimate from these moraine ages and positi
ons. This proposal focuses on four paleo-glaciers, each different in catchment size, valley
topography, and local mass balance.
The paleoclimate history of New Zealand, as expressed by moraine chronologies and marine and
tarn sediment cores since the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT), differs from records in the
Northern Hemisphere (Schaefer et al., 2009; Vandergoes et al., 2003; Vandergoes et
al., 2008; Newnham and Lowe, 2000; Newnham and Lowe, 2003).
Glacier retreat from the last full glacial to today was interrupted by a series of short-lived stagnations
resulting in moraine sequences in certain valleys in central South Island, New Zealand (Andersen
et al., in prep). Fortunately, unlike in the European Alps, glaciers retreated steadily during the
Holocene in New Zealand and the “Little Ice Age” (LIA) event was relatively minor and the
glaciers did not override and destroy earlier Holocene moraines.
European Alps glaciers readvanced (Kaplan et al., submitted). This climate
asynchrony between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres has been
attributed to the bipolar seesaw, atmospheric CO2, and regional climate feedbacks (Broecker, 1998; Kap
lan et al., submitted; Putnam et al., in prep; Schaefer et al., 2009).
It is essential to test what the New Zealand temperate, maritime glaciers are responding to, be it temper
ature, precipitation, or nonclimatic factors. Rother and Shulmeister (2005) suggest that increased accu
mulation due to synoptic climate change can be the sole cause of glacier advances in high
precipitation regions. Roe (in prep) suggests that glaciers in maritime climates are subject to a
high degree of precipitation variability and therefore have muted
sensitivity to temperature. In contrast, Oerlemans (2001) states that glaciers in wetter
climates exhibit increased sensitivity due to a stronger albedo feedback, a larger effect on the partitionin
g of precipitation between snow and rain, and a longer ablation season because glaciers extend
farther down in elevation. Based on the New Zealand End of Summer Snowline Survey (EOSS),
ELA values of individual glaciers are highly co-related to
the “mean ELA”, demonstrating a single climate zone influence (Chinn et al., 2006). That is to
say, whatever New Zealand glaciers are responding to, they are doing so together, across the Southern A
lps and across precipitation gradients.
B) Previous Work and Geologic Setting
Oerlemans (2005), Oerlemans and Hoogendoorn (1989), and Plummer and Phillips (2003)
emphasised several reasons why numerical models of ice for paleoclimate reconstructions are more
desirable than other methods. By including features such as aspect, slope, bed
topography, local climate and overhead insolation, these models have the potential to produce more
accurate climate histories than AAR / ELA calculations. For example, Anderson
and Mackintosh (2006b) used a glaciological model based on
the physics of glaciers and validated against field evidence from Franz Josef Glacier. They adjusted temp
erature and precipitation
independently in the model to drive the glacier out to the Waiho Loop moraine. The test
showed that either a 4.1-4.7 °C drop in mean-annual temperature, 400% increase in meanannual precipitation, or some combination of the two would be necessary for the glacier to
advance 10 km down valley from its modern position (Anderson and Mackintosh, 2006b).
Recent efforts to date New Zealand moraines, led by the Denton (University of Maine) group,
have focused on the best preserved, most complete moraine sequences (Putnam et al., in prep;
Kaplan et al., submitted; Schaefer et al., 2009). To accompany the SED ages, the digitised
Central South Island Glacial Geomorphology (CSIGG) map assembled by Andersen et al. (in prep) include
s detailed moraine positions and other geomorphic interpretations. These maps have been on display
at several paleoclimate conferences and preliminary examples are available online (Andersen et
al., in prep). Most of the glacier systems chosen for the modelling project
are included in the CSIGG map coverage (Barrell and Suggate, in prep). Detailed Holocene moraine
chronologies exist for Hooker, Mueller and Tasman glaciers
(Schaefer et al., 2009), but these glaciers have a significant surface debris cover
and proglacial lakes, making them difficult to simulate (Hubbard et al., 2000; Kirkbride, 1993).
The New Zealand Southern Alps (41-46°S, 167-173°E) intersect the strong southern middle
latitude westerly winds, which are also influenced by the ocean
currents (Subtropical Front and Antarctic Circumpolar Current). The precipitation gradient from the west
(wet) to east semi-arid) partly determines the mass balance and accumulation area ratios of glaciers acr
oss the divide (Chinn and Whitehouse, 1980). Mean annual precipitation peaks near the central western
névés and decreases almost exponentially with distance east from the main divide of the Southern Alps
(Salinger and Mullan, 1999; Chinn and Whitehouse, 1980). The areas of interest for this study are the Ca
meron Glacier in the Arrowsmith Range, Irishman and Whale streams in the Ben Ohau Range, and Brews
ter Glacier in the Young.
Cameron Glacier - Cameron Glacier lies within the Arrowsmith Range of western Canterbury (-43.340°S,
171.011°E). Southeast of Cameron Glacier, 46 km away, the Mt. Hutt Skifield shows
a modern seasonal temperature fluctuation from -5°C to 30°C at 1600 m
asl (metres above sea level) (NIWA CliFlo, 2007). No previous mass balance data exist for the Cameron
Glacier, but the glacier appears suitable for flow rate and ablation stake studies.
Sir Julius von Haast, who named it Hawker Glacier during his visit in 1864, was the first to record the
presence of the glacier. He also drew the terminal ice position, and remarked on the high
mountain walls, but left no detailed record (Burrows, 2005). A detailed 10 Be exposure-age
chronology now exists for Holocene moraines in the Cameron valley (Putnam et al., in prep).
There is also potential for studying the adjacent Ashburton valley, where sampling for 10 Be
dating has been carried out, but this is still tentative (G. Denton, personal correspondence).
For these reasons, the Cameron site is the most promising candidate for my study.
Ben Ohau Range - The Ben Ohau Range is a long, narrow, north-south trending range, which is located b
etween Lake Pukaki and the Dobson Valley, in the Mt. Cook region (-44.26 to - 43.72°S, 169.90 to
170.11°E). The Irishman and Whale stream sites are both within this range.
The precipitation gradient is steep from north to south with distance from the Main
Divide of the Southern Alps. Rock glaciers still exist in the heads of many of the valleys, and are not suita
ble for mass balance studies to aid in this project. The valley floor is therefore
largely exposed and accurately displayed in topographic maps. Much work has been done
describing the formation of the valley systems in the Ben Ohau (Kirkbride and Matthews,
1998), the distribution of modern rock glaciers (Brazier et al., 1998), and the glacial deposits (Birkland,
1982; Kaplan et al., submitted; Chinn et al., in prep). Nearby weather stations include Mt. Cook
Village and Twizel, which show the astounding precipitation gradient mentioned earlier.
Irishman Stream valley is located in the southern end of the Ben Ohau Range (-43.989°S,
170.050°E). The stream drains southwest toward the Dobson River, which then flows south into Lake
Ohau. Due to its distance from the Main Divide, precipitation rates here are relatively low,
aiding in the preservation of moraines. Close to the valley head lies the moraine sequence
that is now well-dated, displaying Late Glacial ages. These new ages show a marked retreat of the
glacier from 13,000 to 11,400 years ago during the Younger Dryas
(Kaplan et al., submitted).
Whale Stream valley is located north of Irishman Stream and is on the east-facing side of the Ben Ohau R
ange (-43.915°S, 170.035°E). Whale Stream drains southeast into Lake Pukaki. The two main tributaries
of the valley, North Branch and South Branch, join near the position of the dated Late Glacial
moraines (Kaplan et al., in prep). Comparisons between
glacial deposits in the different valleys along the Ben Ohau demonstrate an increase in elevation of the E
LA toward the southern end (Chinn et al., in prep; Porter, 1975; Chinn and Whitehouse, 1980).
Brewster Glacier - Brewster Glacier ranges in elevation from 1660 to 2400 m asl and is in the
West Coast region of the Southern Alps (-44.073°S, 169.436°E). Extensive and detailed mass
balance measurements exist from previous glaciological studies (Anderson et al., in press),
which will aid in producing realistic model results. The glacier terminus was drawn by Sir
Julius von Haast in 1863 (Burrows, 2005) and today is one of the New Zealand index glaciers monitored a
nnually for snowline (Chinn, 2006). Although a moraine chronology does not yet exist for this glacier, a s
ingle Late Holocene moraine is available for dating. With a few rock samples from boulders on this mora
ine, a cosmogenic age will assist in our modelling efforts.
Each study site provides its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally, long moraine records,
extensive glacier mass balance studies, and selecting glaciers in different climatic
regimes would strengthen the model validity and the goals of regional climate comparisons,
but such data does not exist for multiple glaciers in New Zealand. Thus, with local weather station
data, previous geomorphic and glaciologic studies, and several dated moraine
sequences, regional paleoclimate comparisons are still attainable. See Table 1.
Cameron Irishman Whale Brewster Mass Balance Study This study - - ÷
Arrowsmith Range, Cameron Glacier, and the associated Holocene moraines. (top right) Google
Earth image looking northwest to both the North and South Branches of
Whale Stream, Ben Ohau Range. (bottom left) Oblique aerial photograph (by G. Denton) looking east
over Irishman Stream in the Ben Ohau Range toward Lake Pukaki. (bottom right)
Oblique aerial photograph (by T. Chinn) looking northeast toward Brewster Glacier, Young Range.
III. PROPOSED RESEARCH
A) Scope of Research Project
The overall purpose of our numerical modelling is to determine a climate history from several dated mor
aine sequences in South Island, New Zealand. These results will help us assess the relationships
between temperature, precipitation, and New Zealand glaciers. More
specifically, I hope to address the following research questions:
ß What climatic conditions are required to advance the glaciers to their various moraine positions? ß
What are the characteristic response times of the glaciers? ß Are the variations in moraine ages
from basin to basin a result of microclimate
conditions, valley-specific topography, or glacier sensitivity / response time? ß What does the climate
reconstruction (compared with other proxy records) tell us
about past changes in the ocean and atmosphere?
Possible Outcomes- ß Sensitivity test results, which will aid in the discussion of glacier drivers. ß
An envelope of possible climatic parameters necessary for the glaciers to advance to
specific moraine positions. ß Comparisons of the different modelled New Zealand glaciers. ß
Comparisons of the model results with other New Zealand proxy records. ß
The model results will compliment paleoclimate information included in the Central
South Island Glacial Geomorphology map. ß
An on-going collaboration between Victoria University of Wellington, the University of Maine, and the
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory to investigate New Zealand
paleoclimate.
There are four phases to this research project. Phase one includes simulating the glacier as it
is today, followed by a series of sensitivity tests (to investigate the roles of temperature,
precipitation, solar radiation, etc.). Phase two is to force the glaciers out to the dated moraine
positions and develop an envelope of climatic possibilities for each glacier extent. Phase
three involves forcing the energy balance model with a pre-existing temperature curve
sourced from tree ring, pollen (pre-human arrival), foraminifera (SST), or CO2 proxy records.
Comparisons between pollen and moraine records have shown discrepancies in the timing and
magnitude of climatic events, leading to multiple interpretations of New Zealand’s
paleoclimate (Newnham and Lowe, 2003; Newnham, 1999; Singer et al., 1998; Vandergoes
et al., 2008). I hope to gain insight as to why glaciers and vegetation are recording different
climate signals and if this is a regionality or seasonality issue. Phase four is the discussion
and comparison of the different glacier valleys and their chronologies with regards to the
model results and other proxy records.
B) Research Methodology
Numerical models are becoming increasingly common in reconstructing paleoclimate from
alpine glaciers (Oerlemans, 1986; Hubbard, 1997; Shroder and Bishop, 2002; Mackintosh et
al., 2002; Huybers and Roe, 2009; Rupper et al., 2009; Ward et al., 2009; Kull and Grosjean,
2000; Plummer and Phillips, 2003; Anderson and Mackintosh, 2006b). They can account for
the effects of topography, albedo, shading, and mass balance implicitly, which allows an
individual glacier’s ‘sensitivity’ and response time to be considered (Oerlemans and
Hoogendoorn, 1989). Another benefit of an energy balance model is that solar radiation,
cloudiness, temperature, and precipitation amounts can be adjusted independently, therefore
testing the glacier’s sensitivity to each climatic factor.Doctoral Thesis Research Proposal (2010)
8 of 18
Numerical models are most valuable when their boundary conditions are realistic and when model outp
ut can be compared to data during a ‘verification period’. For this, measurements from the modern glac
iers will be obtained where possible. Cameron Glacier will be the focus
of my field research because little glaciological work has been done here previously. Mapped glacial
extents are somewhat out of date for the modern terminal position, but reasonably accurate in
the upper catchment, judging by aerial photographs and satellite images.
Flow rates will be measured using ablation stakes, which are
also used to measure the summer’s snowmelt (installed at the end of winter 5 December 2009, and then
measured and removed at the end of the summer season 15 March 2010). Ground Penetrating Radar d
ata record the ice thickness and a bedrock profile, which will be included in the model topography.
Multiple research projects in the past have focused on Brewster Glacier, thus flow and mass
balance rates are readily available (Anderson et al., in press).
A spatially distributed energy balance model showed that near half of the energy available for melt
comes from turbulent heat fluxes (and thus temperature). Modelled sensitivity of the glacier to temper
ature is -2 m
water equivalent per year per degree Celsius (m w.e. a
-1 °C
-1 ). Meltwater runoff also showed
a high sensitivity to temperature change. At this high-altitude, high precipitation site, it is likely
that small interannual changes in temperature are driving large changes in
mass balance, with precipitation variations playing a secondary role (Anderson et al., in press). Current
glaciers in the Ben Ohau Range are too small to extract meaningful mass balance measurements.
Energy balance models for this range will be constructed and tuned by nearby weather station data
instead of glaciological studies. Weather stations in New
Zealand’s alpine regions are sparse and usually short term, but a database of meteorological records is
available on the NIWA CliFlo website (NIWA CliFlo, 2007).
Mt. Cook Village and Twizel weather stations monitor current temperature, precipitation, and humidity
data. Using a lapse rate of -6°C km -1 I willadjust temperature data to the elevation of the accumulation
areas.
The one dimensional coupled flowline-energy balance model used for this project was
developed by B. Anderson and later modified by myself in the software package MATLAB.
By coupling the two models the glacier geometry is updated as the glacier adjusts. As glacier
height increases, for example, the mass balance feedbacks will be captured when the models
are coupled. Each glacier-specific code includes a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and
climatic data as the boundary conditions. Mass balance is determined using the Energy
Balance equation (Eq 1).
Qm = I(1-a)+ Lout + Lin + QH + QE + QR + QG (Eq 1)
Where Qm is the energy available for melt, I the incoming short-wave radiation, a the albedo, Lout the
outgoing longwave radiation, Lin the incoming longwave radiation, QH the sensible
heat flux, QE the latent heat flux, QR the heat flux from rainfall, QG the heat flux from the ice. The
values for these components are calculated from climatic and topographic data (for
details, see Anderson et al., in press). Measured accumulation and ablation rate data for Brewster
and Cameron glaciers will be used to test and therefore evaluate the model.
During this phase, I will carry out a series of sensitivity experiments, increasing the mass balance by
regular increments (0.5, 1, 1.5 m
snow). Each simulation will allow an animation of the glacier’s reactions to disturbances in
the climate to be produced.
C) How the Proposed Research Builds on the Topic
The aforementioned field sites provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct paleoclimate in
New Zealand over the past 13,000 years using a numerical modelling approach.
approach of combining moraine chronologies and models has been tried elsewhere, in the
Swiss Alps (Kerschner et al., 2006) and in the Sierra Nevada (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) for example.
Results will be aimed toward clarifying the debate about Late Glacial and Holocene climate in
the Southern Alps, an important region distant from previous investigations of this type.
A temperate maritime glacier’s response to climatic drivers can be misleading at times. The reason mari
time glaciers are so sensitive to temperature change is because of high rates of precipitation
(Anderson and Mackintosh, 2006a). In addition, because New Zealand currently
receives one of the highest precipitation rates in the world, a further increase is unlikely. The overall
amount of annual precipitation in general is not highly variable, but the difference
between rain and snow can fluctuate dramatically year to year (Oerlemans, 2001). A change from
liquid to solid precipitation may lead to increased spill-over of snow across the main divide. Thus,
the precipitation gradient across the main divide toward the eastern ranges
could have been less-steep during colder periods compared to the near-exponential decrease
seen today (Chinn et al., in prep). I will examine the glaciers’ sensitivity to increased snow accumulation i
n the selected catchments to gain insight intoa possible shift or levelling-out of the precipitation gradien
t.
Discrepancies between interpretations of paleoclimate in New Zealand are numerous in the
literature from the past four decades (Denton and Hendy, 1994; Burrows, 1975; Birkeland, 1982;
Kaplan et al., submitted; Putnam et al, in prep; Rother and Shulmeister, 2005;
Vandergoes et al., 2008; Newnham, 1999; Newnham and Lowe, 2000; Ivy-Ochs et al., 1999;
Tovar et al., 2008; Fitzsimons 1997). As technologies and chronologies improve, a more
consistent picture of climate since the Late Glacial Chron emerges (i.e. recent SED
chronologies). The proposed modelling results will accompany the ages, making for a more
robust climate history, as well as stand alone as a vital test of New Zealand glacier responses.
D) Preliminary Results
Site Selection - Over the last few years, I have assisted in the collection of rock samples used
in the Schaefer et al. (2009), Kaplan et al. (submitted), and Putnam et al. (in prep) SED
chronologies. I visited Cameron valley and thought it would be the perfect opportunity to
combine glacial geology and glaciology. Other areas, such as the Holocene sequences near
Mt. Cook, would be difficult to model due to the complexity of multiple glacier catchments, proglacial
lake calving, extensive debris cover, and steep valley walls (Kirkbride, 1993;
Hubbard et al., 2000). Remaining are the well-dated Ben Ohau sequences. Brewster Glacier
has a five-year mass balance study that will be used to validate the model. The CSIGG maps
include detailed moraine locations, lengths, and ages.
Field Work - In February 2009, I accompanied A. Mackintosh to Brewster Glacier for
ablation stake measurements and stream gauge data. Afterwards, we travelled to Cameron
valley and flew over the glacier to assess hazards and possible camping sites. In December 2009, I led
a team of four to the Cameron Glacier neve where we camped for three days.
During this expedition, we drilled eight ablation stakes (up to 8 m long), dug a 4 m snow pit
for a snow stratigraphy and density profile, completed five Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR)
transects with both the 500 MHz (for snow depth) and the 25 MHz (for a sub-glacial bedrock
profile) antenna, and collected Global Positioning System (GPS) data along those transects
for the modern glacier surface elevation. A return trip to re-measure stake position, measure
the amount of melt out, and retrieve ablation stakes is scheduled for March, 2010. These data
of mass balance as well as nearby weather station data will be used to ‘tune’ the energy
balance model. The bedrock profile will be included in the flowline model.
Computer Modelling - Model code from previous numerical models of South Island glaciers
are available in the Antarctic Research Centre of Victoria University of Wellington. Under
the instruction of my advisor B. Anderson, I have been able to set up and run several flowline,
mass balance, and energy balance models in the programme MATLAB. Initial steps include
setting up the DEM for each glacier valley, determining and marking the centre flowline, and
calculating the local mass balance (estimations at first and then later tuned, if necessary, using
field data). Figures 4-6 show some of the preliminary modelling runs. Once the actual mass
balance and flow rates have been measured for the Cameron Glacier (March, 2010), this
model will be refined and improved.
Cameron Glacier. Warm colours represent negative mass balance (melt) whereas cool
colours represent positive mass balance (snow accumulation).
E) Potential Problems and Limitations
The energy balance model does not include proglacial lake calving, wind redistribution of snow,
and snow avalanching. This is not a problem because the models deal largely with
mass balance over a yearly timestep and a 100 m grid spacing, and the precise distribution of
snow is not essential. Likewise, large proglacial lake development is unlikely due to the steep
topography of each valley, and modelling calving is not a necessary component to the project.
There have been varying degrees of success with deciphering paleoclimate from moraine
sequences and numerical modelling results (Rupper et al., 2009; Hubbard, 1997; Shroder and
Bishop, 2002). Mass balance studies are the best way to monitor climate change with glaciers
but often more records are from length (Oerlemans, 1994). Although the model is based on
modern mass balance studies of Brewster and Cameron glaciers as well as weather station
data, it is possible that there are other climatic factors that affected the glaciers in the past for which
we have no modern analogue (for example, a levelling in the precipitation gradient
across the Southern Alps due to lower annual temperatures). Large scale changes (such as a
shift in the precipitation gradient) will not be tested specifically, because each model is for a single
glacier catchment, not the larger range. Comparing individual glacier catchment
modelling results to one another is when we will detect large-scale differences, if possible.
With regards to the SED chronologies, it is essential to define what the ages represent in
terms of climate. Most studies of SED moraines will associate the ages to a time when the
moraine stabilised after the glacier retreated from the moraine (Putkonen and Swanson, 2003;
Putnam et al., in prep). This is how I have chosen to interpret SED ages for the comparisons
between the proxy records.
Cameron West Branch Marquee Valley W. South Cameron S. South Cameron Douglas Glacier
IV. FORMAT
I intend to structure my thesis as a series of chapters modified from journal articles that have
or will result from this thesis.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1: The Potential to Infer Paleoclimate through Moraine Chronologies and Glacial
Numerical Models
Chapter 1 will be based on a literature review and I will aim to explain the benefits of
modelling glacier fluctuations in an area with high resolution moraine chronologies. I will
present the conflicts amongst the published New Zealand paleoclimate records and from this,
set goals for what I hope to learn from my proposed experiments.
CHAPTER 2: Climatic Sensitivity of Several New Zealand Glaciers - Modelling Tests
Here, I will discuss the methods and models used in my research before explaining the results
from the sensitivity tests. The numerical model will allow each glacier’s unique response to
shifts in climate to be assessed, by accounting for the topography of the glacier valley as well
as the shape, size, elevation, mass balance, and number of tributary glaciers. Detailed data
from the Brewster Glacier (Anderson et al., in press) are invaluable for evaluating the model.
CHAPTER 3: Late Glacial Climate in the Ben Ohau Range Whale and Irishman stream valleys contain
Holocene and Late Glacial moraines. Because the
Late Glacial climate in New Zealand is unresolved in several proxies (Williams et al., 2005;
Alloway et al., 2007), it is vital to interpret the behaviour of glaciers at that time. Estimates
of changes in past temperature and precipitation could lead to further understanding of
regional differences in paleoclimate (Chinn et al., in prep).
CHAPTER 4: A Holocene Climate Record of Cameron Glacier based on Numerical
Modelling and Moraine Ages
This chapter includes a summation of the modelling, glacial setting, and field measurements
on the Cameron Glacier. In addition, I hope to investigate possible causes of the glacier’s
terminus fluctuations, climatic or otherwise.
CHAPTER 5: Climatic Variations over the Last 13,000 Years
With the combined modelling results from several locations, I will present the problem of
precipitation versus temperature when referring to glacier mass balance and what these New
Zealand glaciers appear to be responding to. I will include comparisons with multiple proxy
records (pollen, tree ring, SST, and CO2) that reflect precipitation and temperature over the
past 13,000 years.
CHAPTER 6: A Synthesis of Using Glacier Models to Reconstruct Climate in New Zealand
Here I will discuss my overall findings and understanding of temperate alpine glaciers, their
mass balance, their reactions to climate, and the interpreted paleoclimate from the preserved
moraine systems.
CHAPTER 7: Conclusions
APPENDIX
REFERENCES
M J J Phase I: Project Development Review computer modelling of glacier systems literature
Review physics of glaciers and their reactions to climate Reconnaissance field work Brewster + Cameron glaciers Attend Outdoor First Aid, Alpine Instruction, and
Defensive Driving courses Begin using MATLAB and familiarise myself with code
Explore existing computer models
Literature review of the Cameron, Brewster, and Ben Ohau glaciers and their climatic histories
Compile preliminary maps in ArcGIS & FreshMap
Plan and execute field work on Cameron Glacier - GPR, GPS, snowpit, ablation stakes
Present at Geol. Soc. NZ Meeting, Oamaru
Present at a departmental seminar
Submit research proposal Phase 2: Data Collection Begin GPR and GPS analyses of Cameron
Computer modelling of Cameron, Whale, Irishman, and Brewster glaciers
Present talk at SIRG Meeting, Queenstown
Prepare manuscript on Ben Ohau model results
Complete followup fieldwork on Cameron
Prepare manuscripts on forcing glaciers to moraines, and
forcing glaciers using pollen temperature records Glacial Modelling Course - Karthaus, Italy
Adjust course material to improve this project
Present at AGU 2010 Meeting, San Francisco
Potential field work on Brewster Glacier
Prepare manuscript on spatial variations
Prepare manuscript on what drives glaciers to advance
Compare findings to similar studies on a global scale,
discuss the habits of maritime glaciers with glaciologists
Present talk at SIRG Meeting, North Island Phase 3: Completion
Publish papers, assemble thesis, compile questions and
issues to explore in future research
Thesis write-up and editing
VI. BUDGET AND RESOURCES
· Access to Linux workstation, capable of running high resolution glacier models
· Software: MATLAB, ArcGIS, Freshmap Map Toaster Topo, Google Earth, DNR
Garmin, Paraview, GPS Pathfinder, REFLEX, and CorelDRAW
· Topographic maps, Central South Island Glacial Geomorphology Maps (GNS), GPS
unit, GPR unit, snow ablation stakes
· Travel to field sites (plane, rental car, helicopter), accommodation, and food
· Collaboration with SIRG, GNS, T. Chinn, University of Maine, and Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory for New Zealand Paleoclimate records
· Glacial modelling computer code from B. Anderson and New Zealand DEM
· Personal alpine field equipment (harness, crampons, helmet, skis, ice axe, rope, snow stakes)
Funding: This project is supported by the New Zealand International Doctoral Research
Scholarship ($20,500 stipend per year plus fees, $2,000 travel allowance, $800 book and
thesis allowance) and the Comer Science and Education Foundation (utilised for field work
costs). Additional funding comes from the VUW Faculty of Science Strategic Research Fund
(up to $9,000) and possibly a Victoria Doctoral Completion Award (up to $6,000). The bulk
of the funding will go toward helicopter flights to and from the field area, as well as travel to
conferences, estimated at $3,000 per year. These resources (money and otherwise) are
sufficient to support the aims of this work.
VII. REFERENCES
Ackert Jr., R., Becker, R., Singer, B., Kurz, M., Caffee, M., Mickelson, D. (2008) Patagonian glacier
response during the Late Glacial - Holocene Transition. Science, v 321, p 392-395.
Alloway, B., Lowe, D., Barrell, D., Newnham, R., Almond, P., Augustinus, P., Bertler, N., Carter, L.,
Litchfield, N., McGlone, M., Shulmeister, J., Vandergoes, M., Williams, P., and NZINTIMATE members (2007) Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the
past 30,000 years (NZ-INTIMATE project). Journal of Quaternary Science, v 22, p 9-35.
Andersen, B., Barrell, D., Denton, G., Lowell, T., Almond, P., Suggate, P., Hendy, C., Vandergoes, M.,
Newnham, R., Schluchter, C., Preusser, F., Schaefer, J., Chinn, T. (in prep) Central South
Island Glacial Geomorphology Maps. To be published by GNS Sciences, Dunedin, New
Zealand, 1:50,000 scale, http://maps.gns.cri.nz/website/csigg/
Anderson, B., Mackintosh, A., Stumm, D., George, L., Kerr, T., Winter-Billington, W., Fitzsimons, S.
(in press) Climate sensitivity of a high-precipitation glacier in New Zealand. Journal of
Glaciology.
Anderson, B., and Mackintosh, A. (2006a) Interactive comment on “Synoptic climate change as a
driver of late Quaternary glaciations in the mid-latitude of the Southern Hemisphere” by H.
Rother and J. Shulmeister. Climate of the Past Discussions, v 1, p S161-S167.
Anderson, B., and Mackintosh, A. (2006b) Temperature change is the major driver of late-glacial and Hol
ocene glacier fluctuations in New Zealand. Geological Society of America, v 34, p 121- 124.
Barrell, D., and Suggate, P. (in prep) Quaternary glaciers of New Zealand. Birkeland, P. (1982) Subdivision
of Holocene glacial deposits, Ben Ohau Range, New Zealand, using relative-dating methods. Geological
Society of America, v 93, p 433-449.
Brazier, V., Kirkbride, M., Owens, I. (1998) The relationship between climate and rock glacier
distribution in the Ben Ohau Range, New Zealand. Geografiska Annaler, v 80, p 193-207.
Broecker, W. (1998), Paleocean Circulation during the Last Deglaciation: A Bipolar Seesaw?,
Paleoceanography, v 13, p 119–121.
Broecker, W., and Denton, G. (1990) What drives glacial cycles? Scientific American, v 262, p 49-56.
Burrows, C. (1975) Late Pleistocene and Holocene Moraines of the Cameron Valley, Arrowsmith
Range, Canterbury, New Zealand. Arctic and Alpine Research, v 7, p 125-140.
Burrows, C. (2005) Julius Haast in the Southern Alps. Canterbury University Press, Christchurch, New
Zealand.
Chinn, T., Barrell, D., Denton, G., Andersen, B. (in prep) Derivation of paleosnowline altitudes using
variable AAR values, in Ben Ohau Range, Southern Alps of New Zealand.
Chinn, T., and Whitehouse, I. (1980) Glacier now line variations in the Southern Alps, New Zealand.
World Glacier Inventory - Proceedings of the Riederalp Workshop, n 126, p 219-228.
Chinn, T., Willsman, A., and Salinger, M. (2006) Glacier Snowline Survey. NIWA Report for
Foundation for Research, Science and Technology.
Denton, G., and Hendy, C. (1994) Younger Dryas Age Advance of Franz Josef Glacier in the Southern
Alps of New Zealand. Science, v 264, p 1434-1437.
Fitzsimons, S. (1997) Late-Glacial and Early Holocene glacier activity in the Southern Alps, New
Zealand. Quaternary International, v 38/39, p 69-76.
Fountain, A., and Vecchia, A. (1999) How many stakes are required to measure the mass balance of a
glacier? Geografiska Annaler, v 81, p 563-573.
Hooke, R. (2005) Principles of Glacier Mechanics - Second Edition. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK.
Hubbard, A. (1997) Modelling climate, topography and palaeoglacier fluctuations in the Chilean
Andes. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, v 22, p 79-92.
Hubbard, A., Willis, I., Sharp, M., Mair, D., Nienow, P., Hubbard, B., Blatter, H. (2000) Glacier massbalance determination by remote sensing and high-resolution modelling. Journal of
Glaciology, v 46, p 491-498.
Huybers, K., and Roe, G. (2009) Spatial patterns of glaciers in response to spatial patterns in regional
climate. Journal of Climate, v 22, p 4606-4620.
Ivy-Ochs, S., Schluchter, C., Kubik, P., Denton, G. (1999) Moraine exposure dates imply synchronous
Younger Dryas glacier advances in the European Alps and in the Southern Alps of New
Zealand. Geografiska Annaler, v 81, p 313-323.
Kaplan, M., Schaefer, J., Denton, G., Barrell, D., Chinn, T., Putnam, A., Andersen, B., Finkel, R.,
Schwartz, R., Doughty, A. (submitted) Glacier retreat in New Zealand during the YD stadial. Nature.
Kaplan, M., Schaefer, J., Denton, G., Barrell, D., Chinn, T., Putnam, A., Andersen, B., Finkel, R.,
Schwartz, R., Doughty, A. (in prep) Holocene glacier retreat chronology for Whale Stream,
Ben Ohau, South Island, New Zeland.
Kerschner, H., Hertl, A., Gross, G., Ivy-Ochs, S., and Kubik, P. (2006) Surface exposure dating of
moraines in the Kromer valley (Silvretta Mountains, Austria) - evidence for glacial response
to the 8.2 ka event in the Eastern Alps? The Holocene, v 16, n 1, p 7-15.
Kirkbride, M. (1993) The temporal significance of transitions from melting to calving termini at
glaciers in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand. The Holocene, v 3, p 232-240.
Kirkbride, M., and Matthews, D. (1998) The role of fluvial and glacial erosion in landscape evolutionL
The Ben Ohau Range, New Zealand. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, v 22, p 317327.
Klok, E., and Oerlemans, J. (2002) Model study of the spatial distribution of the energy and mass
balance of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland. Journal of Glaciology, v 48, p 505-518.
Kull, C., and Grosjean, M. (2000) Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the north Chilean Andes
drawn from a climate-glacier model. Journal of Glaciology, v 46, p 622-632. Mackintosh, A., Dugmore,
A., Hubbard, A. (2002) Holocene climatic changes in Iceland: evidence
from modelling glacier length fluctuations at Solheimajokull. Quaternary International, v 91, p 39-52.
Newnham, R. (1999) Temperature Changes During the Younger Dryas in New Zealand. Science Technical Comment, v 283, p 759a.
Newnham, R., Lange, P., Lowe, D. (1995) Holocene vegetation, climate and history of a raised bog
complex, northern New Zealand based on palynology, plant macrofossils and
tephrochronology. The Holocene, v 5 p 267-282.
Newnham, R., and Lowe, D. (2000) Fine-resolution pollen record of late-glacial climate reversal from
New Zealand. Geology, v 28, p 759-762.
Newnham, R., and Lowe, D. (2003) Pattern and Timing of Lateglacial Climate Change in New
Zealand. Geophysical Research Abstracts, v 5, 05337.
NIWA CliFlo (2007) The National Climate Database. http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/
Oerlemans, J. (1986) An attempt to simulate Historic front variations of Nigardsbreen, Norway.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v 37, p 126-135.
Oerlemans, J. (1994) Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers. Science, v 264, p 243.
Oerlemans, J. (2001) Glaciers and Climate Change, Lisse, etc., A.A. Balkema Publishers.
Oerlemans, J. (2005) Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science, v 308, p 675-677.
Oerlemans, J., Anderson, B., Hubbard, A., Huybrechts, P, Johannesson, T., Knap, W., Schmeits, M.,
Stroeven, A., van de Wal, R., Wallinga, J., Zuo, Z. (1998) Modelling the response of glaciers
to climate warming. Climate Dynamics, v 14, p 267-274.
Oerlemans, J., and Hoogendoorn, N. (1989) Mass-balance gradients and climate change. Journal of
Glaciology, v 35, p 399-405.
Plummer, M., and Phillips, F. (2003) A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow
for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features. Quaternary Science Reviews,
v 22, p 1389-1406.
Porter, S. (1975) Glaciation limit in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. Arctic and Alpine Research, v 7, p
33-37.
Putkonen, J., and Swanson, T. (2003) Accuracy of cosmogenic ages for moraines. Quaternary
Research, v 59, p 255-261.
Putnam, A., Denton, G., Schaefer, J., Barrell, D., Andersen, B., Finkel, R., Schwartz, R., Doughty, A.,
Schluchter, C. (in prep) New Zealand glaciers register the Antarctic Cold Reversal.
Putnam, A., Schaefer, J., Barrell, D., Vandergoes, M., Denton, G., Kaplan, M., Finkel, R., Schwartz, R.,
Goehring, B., Kelley, S. (in press) In situ cosmogenic 10 Be production-rate calibration
from the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Quaternary Geochronology.
Roe, G. (in prep) What do glaciers tell us about climate change?
Rother, H., and Shulmeister, J. (2005) Synoptic climate change as a driver of late Quaternary
glaciations in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Climate of the Past Discussions,
v 1, p 231-253.
Rupper, S., Roe, G., Gillespie, A. (2009) Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in
Central Asia. Quaternary Research, v 72, p 337-346.
Salinger, M., and Mullan, A. (1999) New Zealand climate: Temperature and precipitation variations
and their links with atmospheric circulation 1930-1994. International Journal of Climatology,
v 19, p 1049-1071.
Schaefer, J., Denton, G., Kaplan, M., Putnam, A., Finkel, R., Barrell, D., Andersen, B., Schwartz, R.,
Mackintosh, A., Chinn, T., and Schluchter, C. (2009) High-Frequency Holocene Glacier
Fluctuations in New Zealand Differ from the Northern Signature. Science, v 324, p 622-625.
Shroder, J., and Bishop, M. (2002) Preface: A perspective on computer modelling and fieldwork.
Geomorphology, v 53, p 1-9.
Singer, C., Shulmeister, J., McLea, (1998) Evidence against a significant Younger Dryas cooling event
in New Zealand. Science, v 281, p 812-814.
Tovar, S., Shulmeister, J., Davies, T. (2008) Evidence for a landslide origin of New Zealand’s Waiho
Loop moraine. Nature Geoscience, v 1, p 524-526.
Vandergoes, M., Dieffenbacher-Krall, A., Newnham, R., Denton, G., Blaauw, M. (2008) Cooling and
changing seasonality in the Southern Alps, New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal.
Quaternary Science Reviews, v 27, p 589-601.
Vandergoes, M., and Fitzsimons, S. (2003) The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT) in south
Westland, New Zealand: paleoecological insight into mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere
climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews, v 22, p 1461-1476.
Ward, D., Anderson, R., Guido, Z., Briner, J. (2009) Numerical modelling of cosmogenic deglaciation
records, Front Range and San Juan mountains, Colorado. Journal of Geophysical Research, v
114, F01026
Williams, P., King, D., Zhao, J., Collerson, K. (2005) Late Pleistocene to Holocene composite
speleothem 18O and 13 C chronologies from South Island, New Zealand - did a global
Younger Dryas really exist? Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v 230, p 301-317.
VIII. LIST OF ACRONYMS
SED - Surface Exposure Dating - method used to date the age of moraine deposits
ACR - Antarctic Cold Reversal - Southern Hemisphere Late Glacial climate event
ELA - Equilibrium Line Altitude - line separating the accumulation and ablation zones on a glacier
AAR - Accumulation Area Ratio - Accumulation to ablation area, typically 0.66
LGIT - Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition
LIA - Little Ice Age - a brief cooling in recent centuries, a much bigger event in the Northern Hemisphere
EOSS - End of Summer Snowline Survey - 29 year record of snowline observations on 50 index
glaciers in New Zealand
CSIGG - Central South Island Glacial Geomorphology - map of moraines and associated ages M asl Metres above sea level - elevation in reference to present day sea level
DEM - Digital Elevation Model
SST - Sea Surface Temperature - Oxygen isotope data, commonly from planktonic foraminifera, often
provides a reasonable proxy for the temperature at sea level.
GPR - Ground Penetrating Radar - instrument used to retrieve a two-dimensional image of the ground
layers without being invasive
GPS - Global Positioning System
SIRG - Snow and Ice Research Group - New Zealand
GNS - Geological and Nuclear Sciences - New Zealand Government funded geologic institution
AGU - American Geophysical Union - International conference for geologists