S.T.3C: THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
KEY THEMES: ETHNIC MINORITY INFLUENCE ON ELECTIONS
2007
To what extent do ethnic minorities influence the outcome of elections in the USA?
IMPORTANCE OF MINORITY VOTE
Minorities make up 30% of the US population and
their population share is growing, with Hispanics
being the fastest growing.
Both parties are now publishing manifestos in
Spanish as well as English in some states.
The aging of the US born Hispanic youth bulge
ensures that the electoral strength of the nation's
largest minority group will continue to grow in the
coming decades. And much of that growth will take
place in states that have “swing” congressional seats
and key Electoral College votes.
Concentration on ethnic minority voters in key
‘swing states’ of California, Texas, New York and
Florida gives them disproportionate influence in the
presidential elections
Growing potential impact of the Hispanic vote in
Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico
Traditionally the ethnic minority vote has gone to
the Democratic Party; In the 2008 Presidential
election 95% of African American voters and 66%
of Hispanic voters voted for Obama. Traditionally,
they have been more likely to be poor and therefore
more likely to depend on the government support
which Democratic politicians are more likely to
support.
Minority/Majority districts - most of the Democrat
Blacks in Congress come from majority Black
districts Studies have shown that where a minority
candidate has a chance of winning, turnouts by
minority voters go up.
DEMONSTRATING LACK OF INFLUENCE
Minority groups less likely to either register or vote
than Whites; only African Americans have
registration and turnout in excess of 50%
registration of APIs and Hispanics is less than 40%
and turnout fails to reach 30%
For Whites registration is almost 68% and turnout
just above 60%“apathy” due to many minorities
living in poverty.
It is a fact across all capitalist democracies, that
the poorer you are, the less likely you are to vote,
far less stand as a candidate in elections.
In the USA, if you are a minority, you are more
likely to be poor, hence the lower voter turn outs
Importance of gender (women have tended to be
more significantly supportive of the Democrat
candidate than men); religion (Protestants more
pro-Republican and Catholics more pro-Democrat)
and the “religious right”; the ‘wealth gap’ – not as
influential as it was; geographic region, with the
Northeast having become the new heartland of the
Democratic Party and the Republicans now in control
of the socially-conservative South
At local levels, electoral success may depend upon
involvement of ethnic minority voters in a coalition
with Whites; Antonio R Villariagosa, LA’s first
Latino mayor since 1872 was elected in 2005, with
59% of the vote by forging a coalition that included
Black voters as well as Latinos and Whites
Thanks to gerrymandering and the ease with which
those in power can raise money, usually, 90% of
those who run for the House of Representatives
tend to be re-elected
Redistricting is controversial. In a similar way to
the debate over Affirmative Action, it is argued
that this well intentioned policy, rather than
overcoming racism, actually increases it. It assumes
that only a black representative can represent black
people. It assumes also that these black/Hispanic
voters are all the same and have the same interests.
In a sense it builds a racial divide into the political
system. Supporters claim that if it wasn’t for
redistricting there would never have been the
Nine Indian Americans were winners in the
November 2006 US elections to national, state and
local offices including Minnesota State Senator
Chaudhary (Democrat) whose constituency is largely
White
Increase in ethnic minority role models. Barack
Obama's campaign which focused so much on the
"Yes We Can" message, motivated black voters to
believe that it was possible for a black man to
become President.
Importance of the ethnic minority vote recognised
in the composition of the Bush Cabinet
numbers of minorities elected. Until there is
greater equality in visible, high profile role models,
to encourage minorities to take part, redistricting
is, perhaps, a necessary evil.
Mid-term elections 2010
As usual, the Republicans did much better among
white voters and poorer among blacks and Hispanics.
The Republicans picked up 14% more white voters
than they did in 2008.
The problem for the democrats was that much
fewer black and Hispanic voters turned out than in
2008.
Ethnic minorities are extremely under represented.
For example, Hispanics make up 15% of the USA
population yet only have 5.9% of the
Representatives. If their numbers reflected the
size of their population then they should have 68
members elected. Likewise, both the Blacks and
Asians are under represented. If their numbers
were to reflect their population size then the
Blacks should have 59 and the Asians should have
23 representatives.
Despite America voting for a Black President it
seems that US citizens were not willing to elect
ethnic minorities to the Senate. There are no Black
Senators. This is down from the previous election
when there was one and that was Barack Obama.
Hispanics, again, are extremely under represented.
There are 12 less than there should be if the US
Senate was truly representative. It seems that not
only is the Presidency dominated by White males,
but that the US government is also over
represented by White males.