Chapter 11 Bond Valuation Outline Learning Goals I. The Behavior of Market Interest Rates A) Keeping Tabs on Market Interest Rates B) What Causes Interest Rates to Move? C) The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Yield Curves 1. Types of Yield Curves 2. Plotting Your Own Curves 3. Explanations of the Term Structure of Interest Rates a. Expectations Hypothesis b. Liquidity Preference Theory c. Market Segmentation Theory d. Which theory is right? 4. Using the Yield Curve in Investment Decisions Concepts in Review II. The Pricing of Bonds A) Annual Compounding B) Semiannual Compounding Concepts in Review III. Measures of Yield and Return A) Current Yield B) Yield-to-Maturity 1. Using Semi-Annual Compounding 2. Yield Properties 3. Finding the Yield on a Zero C) Yield-to-Call D) Expected Return E) Valuing a Bond Concepts in Review Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 197 IV. Duration and Immunization A) The Concept of Duration B) Measuring Duration 1. Duration for a Single Bond 2. Duration for a Portfolio of Bonds C) Bond Duration and Price Volatility D) Uses of Bond Duration Measures 1. Bond Immunization Concepts in Review V. Bond Investment Strategies A) Passive Strategies B) Trading on Forecasted Interest Rate Behavior C) Bond Swaps Concepts in Review Summary Putting Your Investment Know-How to the Test Discussion Questions Problems Case Problems 11.1. The Bond Investment Decisions of Kelley and Erin Coates 11.2. Grace Decides to Immunize Her Portfolio Excel with Spreadsheets Key Concepts 1. The important role that interest rates play in the bond investment process and the basic determinants of market rates. 2. The term structure of interest rates and yield curves. 3. Fundamentals of bond valuation, including basic measures of yield and return. 4. The concept of duration and its measurement; how duration is applied in immunizing bond portfolios. 5. Various types of bond investment programs and the ways debt securities can be used by investors. Employment of bond ladders is a passive strategy, whereas buying high duration bonds prior to interest rate drops would be a more active and risky strategy. 198 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Overview 1. Interest rates are an integral component of the bond valuation process. Some class time should be spent discussing the economics of interest rates. The various forces that drive interest rates should be covered next. In this context, the instructor can introduce the term structure of interest rates. 2. The text then presents three different explanations of the term structure of interest rates: the Expectations Hypothesis, the Liquidity Preference Theory, and the Market Segmentation Theory. The discussion of this important topic should include yield curves, how they are plotted, and their use in making investment decisions. 3. The next section discusses the bond valuation process. It shows how, given the market rate of interest and other details regarding the bond (such as the maturity, coupon, and face value), it is possible to compute the “correct” price of the bond. An example showing this computation should be worked out in class, including how fluctuations in the market interest rates induce changes in the price of the bond. The magnitude of price changes depends on the amount of change in the market interest rate, as well as on the maturity and coupon of the bond. 4. The concepts of bond yields and returns, along with the computation and use of current yield, promised yield, yield-to-call, and expected yield, are discussed next. The instructor may wish to demonstrate the trial-and-error procedure, to calculate the yield-to-maturity using tables. It is also important to emphasize that what matters to investors is the return from the bond, not its yield. 5. Bond duration is one of the most important concepts in bond valuation and investing. After demonstrating the shortcomings of yield-to-maturity, the concept and measurement of duration can be illustrated. In this regard, the instructor can work out an example to illustrate how duration and modified duration aid investors in gauging a bond’s price volatility. 6. Bond immunization is presented next. This technique preserves the value of a bond portfolio. Bond immunization involves constructing a bond portfolio with a weighted average duration that matches the investor’s investment horizon. 7. Bond investment strategies can be either active or passive. Passive investment strategies include buyand-hold and bond ladders. Trading on interest rate swings and bond swaps are considered active strategies. The instructor might point out the advantages and disadvantages (risks) of each technique. 8. One interesting teaching strategy is to start out with a bond priced at par and show the decine/rise from an interest rate decrease/increase of the same magnitude. Due to convexity, bond prices will rise faster than they decline! Answers to Concepts in Review 1. There is no single market rate of interest applicable to all segments of the bond market. Instead, a series of market yields exists for a variety of market instruments. In general, the interest rate on a particular bond issue will depend on a variety of issue characteristics, including the type of issuer, the amount of tax exposure, its call feature, coupon, and time to maturity. The investment implications of such a market are simple: Investors can pick the segments which have the return, risk, and other characteristics that best meet their investment needs. For example, they can move from agency bonds with a fairly low return (and risk) to corporate bonds and receive a higher return. In short, it opens up the investment alternatives and investment opportunities for investors. Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 199 2. The behavior of interest rates is perhaps the single most important element in determining the level of return from a bond investment program. Interest rates affect the level of current income earned by conservative investors, as well as the amount of capital gains generated by aggressive bond traders. Whereas conservative investors are primarily concerned with the level of interest rates, aggressive investors are interested chiefly in movements in interest rates (the amount of interest rate volatility). Some of the major determinants of interest rates include: inflation, the money supply, the demand for loanable funds, the amount of deficit spending by the Federal Government, and actions of the Federal Reserve (like changes in the discount rate). Individual investors can monitor interest rates and formulate interest rate expectations on an informal basis through the use of reports obtained from their brokers, from investor services (e.g., S&P’s Creditweek), and/or by following columns/articles in such business and financial publications as The Wall Street Journal or Business Week. 3. The term structure of interest rates is the relationship between the interest rate or yield and the time to maturity for any class of similar risk securities. The yield curve is just a graphic representation of the term structure of interest rates at a given point in time. To plot a yield curve, you need to know the yield to maturity for different maturities of similar risk bonds. As market conditions change, the yield curve’s shape and location also change. The upward-sloping yield curve indicates that yields tend to increase with longer maturities. The longer a bond has to go to maturity, the greater the potential for price volatility and the risk of loss. Thus, investors require higher yields on longer maturity bonds. Flat yield curves indicate that yields will be the same across maturities. Given that longer-term bonds have more default and maturity rate risk, a flat yield curve implies that inflation rates are expected to decline. 4. Analyzing the changes in yield curves over time provides investors with information about future interest rate movements and how they can affect price behavior and comparative returns. For example, if over a specific time period, the yield curve begins to rise sharply, it usually means that inflation is increasing. Investors can expect that interest rates, too, will rise. Under these conditions, most seasoned bond investors would turn to short or intermediate (three to five year maturities). A downward-sloping yield curve would signal that rates have peaked and are about to fall. Differences in yields on different maturities at a particular point in time, or the “steepness” of the curve, is an indication that long-term rates are likely to fall somewhat to narrow the spread, providing an incentive to invest in longer-term securities. Steep yield curves are generally viewed as a signs that long-term rates are near their peak. Even among longer-term maturities, the spread between different longer-term maturities should be considered before making a decision to invest. For example, if the spread between 10 and 30-year maturities is not large enough (say, less than 20 basis points), then the investor should favor the 10-year bond, because he would not gain enough to compensate for investing in the much riskier 30-year maturity. In any case, the investor would have to consider his or her own risk tolerance to determine whether the risk premium was sufficient for the additional risk of buying longer-term securities. Bond prices are driven by market yields. In the marketplace, the appropriate yield at which the bond should sell is determined first, and then that yield is used to find the price of the bond. The yield is a function of certain market and economic forces, such as the risk-free rate and inflation, as well as key issue and issuer characteristics, such as the maturity of the issue and agency rating assigned to the bond. You cannot value a bond without knowing its market yield, which functions as the discount rate in the bond valuation process. 5. 200 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition 6. Bonds are usually priced using semiannual compounding because in practice, most bonds pay interest every six months. Semiannual compounding makes discounting of semiannual coupon payments more precise, resulting in more accurate valuation. However, using annual compounding simplifies the valuation process a bit and does not make very much difference in value. With higher coupons and longer maturities, the difference increases more. Bonds offering semiannual payments will be priced higher. 7. Current yield is a measure of a bond’s current income. It is the amount of current income a bond provides relative to its prevailing market price. Yield-to-maturity is a more complete measure and evaluates both interest income and price appreciation. Yield-to-maturity indicates the fullycompounded rate of return earned by an investor, given that the bond is held to maturity and all principal and interest payments are made in a prompt and timely fashion. Promised yield is the same as yield-to-maturity. Promised yield is computed assuming the bond is held to maturity and the coupon cash flows are reinvested at the bond’s computed promised yield. Realized yield is the rate of return an investor can expect to earn by holding a bond over a period of time that is less than the life of the issue. Realized yield is used by bond traders who trade in and out of bonds over short holding periods. 8. When we are dealing with semi-annual cash flows, to be technically correct, we should find the bond’s “effective” annual yield. But the market convention for finding the annual yield is to double the semiannual yield. This practice produces what the market refers to as the bond-equivalent yield. Thus, given a semi-annual yield of 4%, according to the bond-equivalent yield convention, the annual rate of return of this bond if held to maturity is 8%. This is also the same as the bond’s promised yield or yield-to-maturity. 9. The reinvestment of interest income is an important consideration, because it is this rate that an investor must earn on each of the interim cash throw-offs in order to realize a return equal to or greater than the promised yield on a bond. As cash is received from interest income, the equation for promised yield implicitly assumes this cash payment will be reinvested at a rate of return equal to the issue’s promised yield; failure to do so means the investor will generate a realized yield that is less than promised. 10. Duration is a measure of bond price volatility. It captures both price and reinvestment risks in a single measure and indicates how a bond’s price will react to different interest rate environments. It is the effective maturity of a fixed-income security. On the other hand, the bond’s actual maturity does not consider all of the bond’s cash flows nor does it consider the time value of money. Duration is a far superior measure of the effective timing of a bond’s cash flows, because it explicitly considers both the time value of money and the bond’s coupon and principal payments. When the market undergoes a big change in yield, duration will understate price appreciation when rates fall and overstate the price decline when rates increase. Modified duration is used to overcome this problem by linking interest rate changes to changes in bond price. First, you can compute the modified duration using the bond’s computed duration and the computed yield-to-maturity. Then, the change in bond price based upon a change in interest rates can be computed as follows: Percent change in bond price –1 Modified duration Change in interest rates Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 201 11. Market interest rate changes have two effects: the price effect and the reinvestment effect, which occur in opposite directions. When a bond portfolio is immunized, these two effects exactly offset each other and leave the value of the portfolio unchanged. This happens when the weighted average duration of the bond portfolio is exactly equal to the desired investment horizon. If a portfolio is constructed and continuously rebalanced such that the weighted average duration is equal to the desired investment horizon at any particular point in time, then the portfolio is said to be immunized from the effects of interest rate changes. Bond immunization allows an investor to derive a specified rate of return from bond investments regardless of what happens to market interest rates over the course of the holding period. That is, the investor’s bond portfolio is “immunized” from the effects of changes in market interest rates over a given investment horizon. Portfolio immunization is not a passive investment strategy; it requires continual portfolio rebalancing on the part of the investor in order to maintain a fully-immunized portfolio. The composition of the portfolio should change every time interest rates change, and also with the passage of time. 12. Bond ladders are a passive investment strategy whereby an equal amount of money is invested in a series of bonds with staggered maturities. Suppose an investor wants to confine her investing to fixed income securities with maturities of 10 years or less. She could set up the ladder by investing in roughly equal amounts of 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year issues. When the 3-year issue matures, the proceeds would be reinvested in a new 10-year note. Similar rollovers would occur whenever a bond matures. Eventually, the investor would hold a full ladder of staggered 10-year notes. Rolling into new 10-year issues every two or three years allows the investor to do a kind of dollar cost averaging and thereby lessen the impact of swings in market rates. Tax swaps involve replacement of a bond with a capital loss with a similar security. By selling the bond with the capital loss, an investor can offset a capital gain generated in another part of the portfolio and thereby reduce the overall tax liability. Identical issues cannot be used for this kind of swap; the IRS will rule such swaps as “wash sales” and therefore disallow the capital loss. 13. An aggressive bond investor would employ the highly risky forecasted interest rate behavior strategy. The intent of this strategy is to take advantage of interest rate swings by timing the market. Usually these swings are short-lived, so aggressive bond traders will try to magnify their returns by trading on margin. These investors try to generate capital gains when interest rates are expected to decline and to preserve capital when an increase in interest rates is expected. 14. The interest sensitivity of a bond determines how much the bond’s price will fluctuate for a given change in interest rates. Obviously, when rates drop, bond traders want to capitalize on this and as such, require issues that will respond to these interest rate changes. Bonds with longer maturities and/or lower coupons respond more vigorously to changes in market rates; therefore, they undergo greater price swings. High-grade issues are widely used by active bond traders since these issues are generally more interest-sensitive than lower-rated bonds—for example, market behavior is such that a triple A corporate will generally be far more responsive to interest rates than a triple B issue. A deteriorating economy will result in a decline in the demand for money and hence interest rates, but it might cause more default risk to the holder of the triple B bond issue. 202 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Suggested Answers to Investing in Action Questions There’s More to Bond Returns than Yield Alone (p. 472) What is the difference between bond yield and its return? Answer: The total return on a bond consists of the initial yield, interest on reinvested interest, and bond price changes. Only in the case of short-term investments is yield a good measure of return. For longer-term bonds, the most important factor is the interest earned on one’s investment. Over a single year, a key to return is the change in price of one’s bond. Bond price changes can swamp coupon rates and bond yields. Bonds with high coupon payments are normally priced at a premium, which reduces the yield on these investments. Furthermore, one has to be cognizant of changes in bond price arising from shift in interest rates, firm quality, and other factors. Getting Started in Bond Investment (p. 486) (a) What are the advantages and disadvantages of buying bonds directly? (b) What are the advantages and disadvantages of buying bond mutual funds? Answers: (a) Individual bond investment advantages include knowledge of the interest rate and par value payments and timing. (Zero coupon bonds dates can be purchased at a discount and can be chosen so that their maturity matches your investment horizon.) However, it is difficult to find information on individual bonds. An individual bond might be called, while bond mutual funds simply reinvest the proceeds in other bonds without the need for investor activity. Research has shown that it takes $50,000 invested in bonds to be well diversified. (b) Purchase of a bond mutual fund results in investment in a diversified set of bond meeting an investment objective. Bankruptcy on the part of some issuers is unlikely to wipe out an investor’s position. Bond fund managers also have more information resources at their fingertips in order to assess the issuer ability to meet payment obligations. However, there are load fees, management fees, and transaction fees. In addition one is unable to benefit from positive results of a single issuer (e.g., improved quality resulting in a lower required rate of return and hence a higher bond price). Since mutual funds are continually buying new bonds, you cannot predict a specific cash flow on a future date. As with individual bonds, those funds with higher durations will be more sensitive to interest rate changes. While the duration of an individual bond declines with time as a bond approaches maturity, the duration of a bond fund is more constant. Suggested Answers to Discussion Questions 1. Expectations hypothesis: The yield curve reflects investor expectations above all else. Future behavior of interest rates with respect to the present is affected most by expectations regarding inflation. Higher expected inflation requires higher interest rates today. The result is an upwardsloping yield curve. To produce a downward-sloping yield curve under this hypothesis, the expected future inflation would be lower, but the current rates would remain higher. Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 203 Liquidity preference theory: Long-term bond rates should be higher than shorter-term due to the condition there are more liquid market rates in the short-term. Uncertainty increases over time causing the demand for a higher risk premium (bond interest rate). This theory expects upwardsloping yield curves. Downward-sloping curves would not occur in this theory since it would contradict the basic notion that uncertainty increases with time and the risk premium adjusts accordingly. Market Segmentation theory: The debt market is segmented according to length of maturity and preferences. An equilibrium exists in the short-term between suppliers and demanders of funds. There are different inhabitants in each segment with different motivations. In the short-term, banks predominate, but in the long-term, life insurance and real estate firms determine the equilibriums. In this theory yield curves may be either upward- or downward-sloping, as determined by the general relationship between rates in each market segment. 2. Answers will vary with each student and the conditions prevailing in the markets at the time the assignment is made. 3. (a) (b) (c) (d) 4. (a) An aggressive investor would be more concerned with capital gains, that is, price appreciation. In this process, we would advise her to invest in new companies that may be found on the OTC markets. These companies have higher risk but higher returns. We might also suggest a more speculative strategy such as margin buying or short selling dependent on the current conditions in the markets. (b) A very conservative investor might include only investment grade corporate, government, and municipal bonds in her portfolio. This would produce a minimum of market losses and risk. (c) (1) an insurance company that must rely on predictable income streams (2) an investor who wants to maximize yield (3) an individual or institution that is not as conservative (4) an investor who has a buy-and-hold investment strategy and a specific date at which the funds will be needed 5. Answers will vary with each student. Solutions to Problems 1. Bond A: $1,000 par value, 5% coupon, 15-year life, priced to yield 8% Bond B: $1,000 par value, 7.5% coupon, 20-year life, priced to yield 6% Bond A, with a 5% coupon and an 8% yield, must sell at a discount; it will be priced below $1,000. Bond B, on the other hand, is a premium bond (its coupon is greater than its yield) and it will sell at a much higher price than Bond A: Price of Bond A $50 PVIFA8%,15 yrs. $1,000 PVIF8%,15 yrs. $50 8.560 $1,000 0.315 $428 315 $743 Price of Bond B $75 PVIFA6%,20 yrs. $1,000 PVIF6%,20 yrs. $75 11.470 $1,000 0.312 Higher yields lead to shorter durations, lower yields lead to longer durations. Longer maturities mean longer durations, shorter maturities mean shorter durations. Higher coupons result in shorter durations, lower coupons result in longer durations. Yield-to-maturity has increased. 204 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition $860.25 312 $1,172.25 Chapter 11 2. Bond Valuation 205 Bond prices using semi-annual compounding: (a) 10½%, 15 years, YTM of 8% Price $52.50 PVIFA4%,30 yrs. $1,000 PVIF4%,30 yrs. $52.50 17.292 $1,000(0.308) $907.83 $308 $1,215.83 (b) 7%, 10 years, YTM of 8%: Price $35 PVIFA4%,20 yrs. $1,000 PVIF4%,20 yrs. $35 13.590 $1,000(0.456) $475.65 $456 $931.65 (c) 12%, 20 years, YTM of 10%: Price $60 PVIFA5%,40 yrs. $1,000 PVIF5%,40 yrs. $60 17.159 $1,000(0.142) $1,029.54 $142 $1,171.54 Bond prices using annual compounding: (a) 10½%, 15 years, YTM of 8%: Price $105 PVIFA8%,15 yrs. $1,000 PVIF8%,15 yrs. $105 8.559 $1,000(0.315) $898.70 $315 $1,213.70 (b) 7%, 10 years, YTM of 8%: Price $70 PVIFA8%,10 yrs. $1,000 PVIF8%,10 yrs. $70 6.710 $1,000(0.463) $469.70 $463 $932.70 (c) 12%, 20 years, YTM of 10%: Price $120 PVIFA10%,20 yrs. $1,000 PVIF10%,20 yrs. $120 8.514 $1,000(0.149) $1,021.68 $149 $1,170.68 The price difference using the two compounding methods are: Semi-annual Annual Difference (a) Premium $1,215.83 1,213.70 $2.13 (b) Discount $931.65 932.70 –$1.05 (c) Premium $1,171.54 1,170.68 $0.86 Overall, the difference between bond prices computed using either method are very small, ranging in absolute value from $0.86 to $2.13. As the above comparison demonstrates, if a bond sells at a premium its value is higher with semi-annual compounding. When it sells at a discount, its value is greater with annual compounding. 3. PVIFA9%, 15 periods 8.061 PVIF9%, 15 periods 0.275 Bond price ($758.061) ($1,0000.275) $604.58 $275 $879.57 206 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition 4. PVIFA4%, 40 periods 19.793 PVIF4%, 40 periods 0.208 Bond price ($5019.793) ($1,0000.208) $989.65 $208 $1,197.65 5. Return interest income plus price appreciation Return $100 $50 $150 Holding period return $150/$900 0.1667 or 16.67%. 6. Current yield is equal to annual income divided by current price $80/$1,150 0.0696 or 6.9%. 7. Price of bond today (8%, 18 years, 10% yield): Price $80 PVIFA10%,18 yrs. $1,000 PVIF10%,18 yrs. $80 8.201 $1,000(0.180) $656.08 $180 $836.08 Price of bond in one year (8%, 17 years, 9% yield): Price $80 PVIFA9%,17 yrs. $1,000 PVIF9%,17 yrs. $80 8.544 $1,000(0.231) $683.52 $231 $914.52 If the investor’s expectations are accurate, the price of the bond should go up by $78.44 ($914.52) – $836.08) over the next year. The holding period return will be: HPR Annual interest income Capital gains Purchase price $80 $78.44 18.95% $836.08 8. $1,170.68 (1,000PVIFx%, 20 periods) ($120PVIFAx%, 20 periods) Using 20 years and 10% ($1,0000.149) ($1208.514) $149 $1,021.68 $1,170.68 Calculator solution: 9. 20N, –1170.58 PV, 120 PMT, 1000FV CPT I/Y 10.0 % $1,098.62 (1,000PVIFx%, 20 periods) ($90PVIFAx%, 20 periods) Using 20 years and 8% ($1,0000.215) ($1209.818) $215 $883.62 $1,098.62 Calculator solution: 20N, –1098.62 PV, 90 PMT, 1000FV CPT I/Y 8.0 % Chapter 11 10. Current yield Bond Valuation 207 Annual interest income Current market price of bond $100 * 8.33% $1, 200 *Annual interest income 0.10 $1,000 (assumed face value). Using annual compounding, the promised yield (YTM) on the bond can be calculated as follows: Current price: $1,200 Coupon Payment: $100 Holding period 25 years Future Price $1,000 Let r% be the promised yield. We have the following: 1,200 100 PVIFAr%,25 period $1,000 PVIFr%,25 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the promised yield is: 8.1% Using Semi-Annual Compounding, the promised yield (YTM) on the bond can be calculated as follows: Current price: $1,200 Coupon Payment: $100 ÷ 2 50 Holding period 25 years 2 50 periods Future Price $1,000 Let r% be the promised Yield. We have the following: 1,200 50 PVIFAr%,50 period $1,000 PVIFr%,50 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the promised semi-annual yield is: 4.06% Hence the annual promised yield 4.06% 2 8.12% 11. (a) Current yield Annual interest income/Current market price of the bond $100 $1200 8.33% Yield-to-Maturity (using interpolation) for a market price of $1200 PV @ 4% ($50PVIFA4%,50periods ) ($1000PVIF4%,50periods) $1215 ($50 21.482) ($1000 21.482) PV @ 5% ($50 PVIFA5%,50periods ) ($1000 PVIF5%,50periods) $999 ($50 18.256) ($1000 0.087) Interest Rate 4% I 5% Bond Price $1215 1200 $999 $15 difference $216 difference YTM 4% (15/216) (1%) 4% 0.07% 4.07% 2 8.14% 208 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Yield-to-Call PV @ 3% $1226.30 PV @ 4% $1132.25 ($50PVIFA3%,10periods) ($1075 PVIF3%,10periods) ($508.530) (10750.744) 426.50 799.80 ($50PVIFA4%,10periods) ($1075PVIF4%,10periods) ($508.111) ($10750.676) 405.55 726.70 Interest Rate 3% I 4% Bond Price $1226 1200 $1132 $26 difference $94 difference YTC 3% (26/94) (1%) 4% 0.277% 3.287%2 6.56% Thus, the YTC on this bond is 6.56% while the YTM is 8.14%. Bond traders would compare both rates. Since the convention is to use the lower more conservative measure of yield as the appropriate indicator of value, we would use the YTC of 6.56%. Calculator Solution: Calculator Solution: YTM : 50N, –1200 PV, 50PMT, 1000 FV; CPT I/Y 4.062 8.12% YTM : 10N, –1200 PV, 50PMT, 1075 FV; CPT I/Y 3.272 6.54% $100 $850 11.8% (b) Current Yield Yield-to-Maturity (using interpolation) for a market price of $850 PV @ 5% ($50 PVIFA5%,50periods ) ($1000 PVIF5%,50periods) $999.80 ($50 18.256) ($1000 0.087) PV @ 6% ($50 PVIFA6%,50periods ) ($1000XPVIF6%,50periods) $ 842.10 ($50 15.762) ($1000 0.054) Interest Rate 5% I 6% Bond Price $999 $149 difference 850 $842 $157 difference YTM 5% (149/157) (1%) 5% 0.95% 5.95% 2 11.9% Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 209 Yield-to-Call (using interpolation) for a market price of $850 PV @ 7% ($50PVIFA7%,10periods ) ($1075PVIF7%,10periods) $897.30 ($507.024) ($10750.508) PV @ 8% ($50PVIFA8%,10periods ) ($1000PVIF8%,10periods) $ 833.23 ($506.710) ($10750.463) Interest Rate 7% I 8% Bond Price $897 $47 difference 850 $ 833 $64 difference YTC 7% (47/64)(1%) 7% 0.734% 7.73%2 15.46% Calculator Solution: YTM : 50N, –850 PV, 50PMT, 1000 FV; CPT I/Y 5.942 11.9% YTM : 10N, –850 PV, 50PMT, 1075 FV; CPT I/Y 7.732 15.47% 12. Bond A: Since 10.5% is an interest rate that does not appear in the tables, it is necessary to use a calculator to price the bond. N 202 40 semiannual periods I/Y 10.5/2 5.25 percent per semiannual period PMT 0.09 ($1,000)/2 $45 per semiannual period FV $1000 Compute PV $875.59 Current yield 90 10.3% $876 Yield-to-Maturity PV @ 5% $45PVIFA5%,40period $1000PVIF5%,40period 914 (4517.159) (10000.142) PV @ 6% $45PVIFA6%,40period $1000PVIF6%,40period 774 (4515.046) (10000.097) Interest Rate 5% I 6% Bond Price $914 $38 difference 876 $774 $140 difference YTM 5% (38/140) (1%) 5% 0.27% 5.27%2 10.54% 210 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Yield-to-Call (using interpolation) for a market price of $876 PV @ 6% ($45 PVIFA6%,40periods ) ($1000 PVIF6%,40periods) $917 ($457.360) ($1050 0.558) 331.20 585.90 PV @ 7% ($45PVIFA7%,10periods ) ($1050PVIF7%,10periods) $ 849 ($457.024) ($10500.508) 316.08 533.40 Interest Rate 6% I 7% Bond Price $917 876 $849 $41 difference $68 difference YTC 6% (41/68) (1%) 6% 0.60% 6.60%2 13.2% Bond B: Since 7.5% is an interest rate that does not appear in the tables, it is necessary to use a calculator to price the bond. N 20 annual periods I/Y 7.5 percent per year PMT $80 per year FV $1000 Compute PV $1,050.97 Current yield 7.6% $80 $1,051 Yield-to-Maturity(using interpolation) for a market price of $1051 PV @ 7% $80 PVIFA7%,20period $1000xPVIF7%,20period 1105.52 (8010.594) (10000.258) PV @ 8% $80 PVIFA8%,20period $1000 PVIF8%,20period 1000.44 (809.818) (10000.215) YTM 7% (54.52/105.08) 1% 7% 052% 7.52% Yield-to-Call (using interpolation) for a market price of $1051 PV @ 7% ($80 PVIFA7%,5periods ) ($1050PVIF7%,5periods) $1076.65 ($804.100) ($10500.713) 328 748.65 PV @ 8% ($80PVIFA8%,5periods ) ($1050PVIF8%,5periods) $1034.49 ($803.993) ($1050 0.681) 319.44 715.05 YTC 7% (25.65/42.16) (1%) 7% 0.61% 7.61% 13. PVIF Price/Par 0.209. PVIF of 0.209 for 15 years 11%. Calculator Solution: 15N, –209PV, 1000FV; CPT I/Y 11.0% Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 211 14. Price ParPVIF $1,0000.422 $422.00. Calculator Solution 10N, 9I/Y, 1000FV; CPT PV $422.41 15. Bond terms: 25 years, zero-coupon, priced at 11.625 (price of $116.25). Current yield Annual interest income Current market price of bond $0 $116.25 The easiest (and most accurate) way to find the promised yield of a zero coupon issue without a calculator that has the time value of money function is to use the table of present value interest factors (Table B.3 in the appendix). First solve for the PVIF in the basic present value equation: $116.25 $1,000 PVIF PVIF $116.25 0.116 $1,000 The 25-year factor in Table B.3 that’s equal (or close) to 0.116 is 9%, which lies at the intersection of 25 years and 9%. (Note: Using the approximate yield equation results in a promised yield of only 6.33%, a figure that isn’t even close to the real promised yield—which illustrates why approximate yield is not a very accurate measure of return for zero coupon bonds.) Calculator Solution 25N, –116.25PV, 1000FV; CPT I/Y 8.99% To find the price of this zero coupon bond, find the present value at 12% of $1,000 (par value) in 25 years: Bond price $1,000 PVIF12%,25 yrs. $1,000 0.059 $59 Calculator Solution: 25N, 12I/Y, 1000FV; CPT PV $58.82 16. Using annual compounding, the realized yield on the bond can be calculated as follows: Current price: $800 Coupon Payment: $80 Holding period 3 years Future Price $950 Let r% be the promised yield. We have the following: 950 80 PVIFAr%,3 period $950 PVIFr%,3 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the realized yield is: 15.38% If this is a nine-month holding period, the hold period return is: HPR $950 $800 $60 26.25% $800 The 15.38% is lower than the 26.25% holding period return. The latter is for nine months, while the former is an annual yield. Dividing the nine-month holding period by 0.75 puts both rates on an annual basis; that is, 26.25/0.75 35% annual rate of return. 212 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition 17. (a) Bond terms: 9½%, 20 years, priced at $957.43 Current price: $957.43 Coupon Payment: $95 Holding period 20 years Future Price $1,000 Let r% be the Yield-To-Maturity. We have the following: 957.43 95 PVIFAr%,20 period $ PVIFr%,20 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the YTM is: 10% (b) Bond terms: 16%, 15 years, priced at $1,684.76 Current price: $1,684.76 Coupon Payment: $160 Holding period 15 years Future Price $1,000 Let r% be the Yield-To-Maturity. We have the following: 1,684.76 160 PVIFAr%,15 period $1,000 PVIFr%,15 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the YTM is: 8% (c) Bond terms: 5½%, 18 years, priced at $510.65 Current price: $510.65 Coupon Payment: $55 Holding period 18 years Future Price $1,000 Let r% be the Yield-To-Maturity. We have the following: 510.65 55 PVIFAr%,18 period $1,000 PVIFr%,18 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the YTM is: 12.42% 18. Modified duration Macaulay Duration/(1 Yield) 9.5/1.075 8.84. 19. Percent change in bond price –1modified durationchange in interest rates Modified duration Macaulay Duration/(1 Yield) 8.62/1.08 7.98. Percent change in bond prices –17.980.005 –0.0399 or –3.99% 20. Percent change in bond price –1modified durationchange in interest rates Modified duration Macaulay Duration/(1 Yield) 8.62/1.08 7.98. Percent change in bond prices –17.98–0.005 0.0399 or 3.99% 21. To calculate the duration of the bond, first calculate the bond’s current market price: Bond terms: 10% coupon, 20 years, 8% YTM Price $100 PVIFA8%,20 yrs. $1,000 PVIF8%,20 yrs. $100 9.818 $1,000 0.215 $981.80 $215 $1,196.80 Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 213 Duration analysis: 10% coupon, 20 years, 8% YTM (1) Year (t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 (2) Weighted Annual Cash Flow (C) $100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1,100 (3) (4) PVIF (8%) Present Value of Cash Flows (2) (3) $92.60 85.70 79.40 73.50 68.10 63.00 58.30 54.00 50.00 46.30 42.90 39.70 36.80 34.00 31.50 29.20 27.00 25.00 23.20 236.50 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681 0.630 0.583 0.540 0.500 0.463 0.429 0.397 0.368 0.340 0.315 0.292 0.270 0.250 0.232 0.215 Modified duration (5) PC (Ct) Divided by Current Price of the Bond 4/$1,196.80 0.07737 0.07161 0.06634 0.06141 0.05690 0.05264 0.04871 0.04512 0.04178 0.03869 0.03585 0.03317 0.03075 0.02841 0.02632 0.02440 0.02256 0.02089 0.01939 0.19761 Duration (6) TimeRelative Cash Flow (1) (5) 0.07737 0.14322 0.19902 0.02564 0.28450 0.31584 0.34097 0.36096 0.37602 0.38960 0.39435 0.39804 0.39975 0.39774 0.39480 0.39040 0.38352 0.37602 0.36841 3.95220 10.19 years Duration in years 1 Yield to maturity 10.19 9.44 1 0.08 % change in bond price –1 Modified duration change in interest rates –1 9.44 1% –9.44% If market yields rise 1%, the price of the bond will fall by 9.44%: Price in one year $100 PVIFA9%,19 yrs. $1,000 PVIF9%,19 yrs. $100 8,950 $1,000 0.194 $895 $194 $1,089 The change in bond price is –$107.80, or 9% of the purchase price. The change in price using the modified duration method is 9.44%, overstating the actual price change by 0.44%. Duration is therefore not a good predictor of price volatility if interest rates undergo a big swing. Since the priceyield relationship of a bond is convex in form—but duration is not—the duration measure will overstate the price decline as the market experiences a big increase in rates. Here, although better, the modified duration overstated the decline by almost 0.5%. 214 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition 22. This question is about bond price volatility. We need to measure the responsiveness of a bond’s price to a given change in market interest rates. To maximize capital gains, we need to select the bond that has the maximum price volatility. To do this, first calculate the modified duration of each bond using the following formula: Modified duration Duration in years 1 Yield to maturity Then calculate the price change with the following formula: % change in bond price –1 Modified duration change in interest rates (a) Bond with duration of 8.46 years with YTM of 7.5%: Modified duration 8.46 7.87% 1 0.075 % change in bond price –1 7.87 –0.5% 3.94% (b) Bond with duration of 9.30 years with YTM of 10%: 9.30 8.45% 1 0.10 % change in price –1 8.45 –0.5% 4.23% Modified duration (c) Bond with duration of 8.75 years with YTM of 5.75%: 8.75 8.27% 1 0.0575 % change in price –1 8.27 –0.5% 4.135% Modified duration Bond (b) offers the potential for maximum capital appreciation. To maximize gains, this bond should be selected over the others. (Note: This question can be answered directly by looking at the modified duration. For a given change in interest rates, the bond with the highest modified duration will offer maximum price appreciation potential. Bond (b), with the highest modified duration, is the choice for the investor who wishes to maximize capital gains. 23. Current price of the bonds at 9% market interest: Zero-coupon bond: Price $1,000 PVIFA9%,25 yrs. $1,000 0.116 $116 7½%, 20-year bond (assume annual payments): Price $75 PVIFA9%,20 yrs. $1,000 PVIFA9%,20 yrs. $75 9.129 $1,000 0.178 $862.68 Prices based on 7% rate in 1 year: Zero-coupon bond: Price $1,000 PVIFA7%,24 yrs. $1,000 .197 $197 7½%, 19-year bond (assume annual payments): Price $75 PVIFA7%,19 yrs. $1,000 PVIFA7%,19 yrs. $75 10.336 $1,000 .277 $1,052.20 Capital gains: Zero-coupon bond: Gain $197 – $116 $81 7½% bond: Gain $1,052.20 – 862.68 $189.52 Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 215 To maximize capital gains per bond, buy the 7½%, 20 year bond; but this doesn’t take into account the big difference in the amount (cost) invested. To do that, we should compare holding period returns: HPR Zero-coupon bond: 7½% bond: Interest Capital gains Purchase price $81 69.8% $116 $75 $189.52 HPR 30.7% $862.68 HPR The conclusion remains unchanged. Mary should purchase the zero-coupon bond. We know from Chapter 9 that prices of bonds with lower coupons and/or longer maturities will respond more vigorously to changes in market rates. This is exactly why the zero coupon bond provided better capital gains than the 7½% bond as market rates went down; the zero coupon bond pays no interest and, in this case, had a longer maturity than the other bond. The duration of a zero-coupon bond is equal to its actual maturity, while the duration of a couponbearing bond is always less than its actual maturity. In this case, the zero-coupon bond’s duration is longer (25 years) than that of the 7½% coupon bond. The zero-coupon bond, with its longer duration, should be more price volatile than the other bond under consideration. 24. The duration and modified duration can be calculated using the IMD software. It gives the precise duration measure because it avoids the rounding-off errors which are inevitable with manual calculations. The following answers are computed using a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet set up to mimic manual calculations using present value factors from table B.3. The duration and modified duration measures using IMD are provided for comparison. (a) Duration and modified duration T [PV(Ct ) t ] Duration Pbond t 1 Modified duration Duration in years 1 Yield to maturity Bond 1: 13 years, 8¼, priced to yield 7.47% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 8.74. years 8.74 8.13 1 0.0747 Using the software the duration is 8.58 years and the modified duration is 7.97%. Modified duration Bond 2: 15 years, 77/8 , priced to yield 7.60% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 9.41. years 9.41 8.75 1 0.0760 Using the software the duration is 9.37 years and the modified duration is 8.71% Modified duration Bond 3: 20 years, zero coupon, priced to yield 8.22% With a zero-coupon bond, the duration of this bond is the same as its maturity, 20 years. 20.00 Modified duration 18.48 1 0.0822 216 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Bond 4: 24 years, 7½, priced to yield 7.90% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 11.59. years 11.59 Modified duration 10.70 1 0.0790 Using the software the duration is 11.56 years and the modified duration is 10.72% (b) When Elliot invests $250,000 in each of the four bonds, the weighted average duration of the portfolio is: (1) (2) (3) (4) Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond 3 Bond 4 Bond Particulars 13 years, 8.15% 15 years, 7.875% 20 years, 0% 24 years, 7.5% Amount Invested $250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 $1,000,000 Weight 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.00 (5) Bond Duration 8.74 9.41 20.00 11.59 (6) Weighted Duration (4) (5) 2.1850 2.3525 5.0000 2.8975 12.4350 The duration of the portfolio is 12.44 years. (c) When Elliot invests $360,000 each into bonds 1 and 3, and $140,000 each into bonds 2 and 4, the weighted average duration of the bond portfolio is: (1) (2) Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond 3 Bond 4 Bond Particulars 13 years, 8.25% 15 years, 7.875% 20 years, 0% 24 years, 7.5% (3) Amount Invested $360,000 140,000 360,000 140,000 $1,000,000 (4) Weight 0.36 0.14 0.36 0.14 1.00 (5) Bond Duration 8.74 9.41 20.00 11.59 (6) Weighted Duration (4) (5) 3.1464 1.3174 7.2000 1.6226 13.2864 The duration of the portfolio is 13.29 years. (d) Portfolio (c) has a higher duration than portfolio (b). If rates are about to rise, then it is safer to invest in portfolio (b), because this would be less price volatile than the other portfolio. Solutions to Case Problems Case 11.1 The Bond Investment Decisions of Kelley and Erin Coates In this case, the student is asked to evaluate two bond trading opportunities—one involves using bonds to speculate on short-term interest rate movements, and the other deals with a bond swap. (a) 1. The Coates are attempting to speculate on interest rates by seeking capital gains from an expected drop in rates. Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 217 2. The price of the bond in 2 years (when it has 23 years to maturity): Price of bond Coupon (PVIFA) Maturity value (PVIF) $75 PVIFA8%,23 yrs. $1,000 PVIF8%,23 yrs. $75 10.371 $1,000 0.170 $778 $170 948 3. Using the formula for expected return Current price: $852 Coupon Payment: $75 Holding period 2 years Future Price $948 Let r% be the Yield-To-Maturity. We have the following: 852 75 PVIFAr%,2 period $948 PVIFr%,2 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the YTM is 14% 4. Although this appears to be an attractive investment, one must compare the expected return with other possible alternatives. Presuming the expected rate of return (of 14%) is commensurate with the exposure to risk, Kelley & Erin should seriously consider this bond investment opportunity— unless they feel strongly that they can do better elsewhere. Further, they should be well aware of the fact that this high rate of return is due in large part to their ability to correctly forecast interest rates (no easy task); they should fully appreciate the implications of this kind of risk exposure. (b) 1. We will evaluate the current and promised yields using the text’s formulas. Current yield Annual interest/Current price Beta Corporation $70/$785 8.92% Dental Floss, Inc $75/$780 9.60% Root Canal Products $65/$885 7.35% Kansas City Dental $80/$950 8.42% Insurance Beta Corporation: 785 35 PVIFAr%,30 period $1,000 PVIFr%,30 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 4.87% 2 9.75% Dental Floss, Inc: 780 37.50 PVIFAr%,30 period $1,000 PVIFr%,30 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 5.21% 2 10.42% Root Canal Products: 885 33.50 PVIFAr%,26 period $1,000 PVIFr%,26 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 4% 2 8% 218 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Kansas City Dental Insurance: 950 40 PVIFAr%,34 period $1,000 PVIFr%,34 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 4.28% 2 8.56% 2. Clearly, Dental Floss offers both higher current and promised yields than Beta Corporation. 3. The Coates should swap Beta for Dental Floss to obtain higher current income and promised yield; this presumes the two have equal default risk, and that the Coates are sure the two are of comparable quality. Case 11.2 Grace Decides to Immunize Her Portfolio (a) Current and Promised Yield Calculations Current yield Annual interest income Current market price of bond Bond 1: 12 years, 7½% coupon; currently priced at $895 Current yield $75 8.38% $895 Yield to Maturity: 895 75 PVIFAr%,12 period 1,000 PVIFr%,12 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 8.96% Bond 2: 10 years, zero coupon; currently priced at $405 Current yield 0% for a zero coupon bond Precise yield: Solve for PVIF: $405 $1, 000 PVIF $405 PVIF 0.405 $1, 000 The 10-year factor closest to 0.405 (from Table B.3) occur at 9% (0.422) and 10% (0.386). Because 0.405 is halfway between the two, the promised yield on this security should be 9.5%. Using the software, the YTM is 9.45%. Bond 3: 10 years, 10% coupon; currently priced at $1,080 Current yield $100 9.26% $1,080 Yield to Maturity: 1,080 100 PVIFAr%,10 period 1,000 PVIFr%,10 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 8.77% Chapter 11 Bond Valuation Bond 4: 15 years, 9¾% coupon; currently priced at $980 Current yield $97.50 9.95% $980.00 Yield to Maturity: 980 97.50 PVIFAr%,15 period 1,000 PVIFr%,15 period The r% can be calculated by trial and error using Tables. Using a financial calculator, the expected return is: 10% (b) Duration and Price Volatility Bond 1: 12 years, 7½% coupon; currently priced at $895 to yield 9% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 8.07 years 8.07 7.40 1 0.09 Percent change in bond price –1 Modified duration Change in interest rate Modified duration –1 7.40 0.75 –5.55% The price of the bond will fall by 5.55% if interest rate rise 0.75% and vice versa. Bond 2: 10 years, zero coupon; currently priced at $405 to yield 9.5% The duration of a zero coupon bond is the same as its maturity, or 10 years. Modified duration 10.00 9.13 1 0.095 Percent change in bond price –1 Modified duration Change in interest rate –1 9.13 0.75 –6.85% The price of the bond will fall by 6.85% if interest rate rise 0.75% and vice versa. Bond 3: 10 years, 10% coupon; currently priced at $1,080 to yield 8.75% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 6.89 years. Modified duration 6.89 6.34% 1 0.0875 Percent change in bond price –1 Modified duration Change in interest rate –1 6.34 0.75 –4.76% The price of the bond will fall by 4.76% if interest rate rise 0.75% and vice versa. 219 220 Gitman/Joehnk • Fundamentals of Investing, Ninth Edition Bond 4: 15 years, 9¾% coupon; currently priced at $980 to yield 10% Using Lotus 1-2-3, duration of this bond is 8.41 years. 8.41 7.65% 1 0.10 Percent change in bond price –1 Modified duration Change in interest rate –1 .65 0.75 –5.74% Modified duration The price of the bond will fall by 5.74% if interest rate rise 0.75% and vice versa. (c) When Grace invests 450,000 in each of the four bonds, the weighted average duration of the bond portfolio would be: (1) Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond 3 Bond 4 (2) Bond Particulars 12 years, 7.50% 10 years, zero 10 years, 10% 15 years, 9.75% (3) Amount Invested $50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 $200,000 (4) Weight 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.00 (5) Bond Duration 8.07 10.00 6.89 8.41 (6) Weighted Duration (4) (5) 2.0175 2.5000 1.7225 2.1025 8.3425 The duration of the portfolio is 8.34 years. Grace’s investment horizon is 7 years; therefore, the bond portfolio is not immunized because the weighted average of the portfolio is greater than the investment horizon. (d) The bond with the highest duration is the zero-coupon bond (10 years). The bond with the lowest duration is the 10%, 10-year bond. To lengthen the portfolio’s duration, Grace can invest in higher duration bonds and shorten the duration by investing in lower duration bonds. By investing the entire sum of $200,000 in the 10-year bond, she can achieve the shortest duration portfolio. Obviously, investing the entire portfolio in the zero coupon bond results in the longest duration portfolio. (e) Grace is planning to cash out of the bond portfolio in about 7 years and wants to immunize the portfolio. To do so, we must find a portfolio with a weighted average duration of 7 years. The easiest way to immunize her portfolio from interest rate risk is to invest all of the $200,000 in the 10-year, 10% bond, with its 6.89 year duration. To achieve a fully immunized portfolio with a duration of exactly 7 years, we can consider the 12year, 7.50% bond with its 8.07 year duration and the 10-year, 10% bond with its 6.89 year duration. The following portfolio has a 7.01 year duration and is therefore immunized from interest rate risk: (1) Bond 1 Bond 2 (2) Bond Particulars 12 years, 7.50% 10 years, 10% (3) Amount Invested $20,000 180,000 (4) Weight 0.10 0.90 1.00 (5) Bond Duration 8.07 6.89 (6) Weighted Duration (4 (5) 0.8070 6.2010 7.0080 Chapter 11 Bond Valuation 221 (f) Regardless of how Grace immunizes her bond portfolio, immunization is not meant to be a passive strategy that she can “put away and forget about.” Immunization is a continued portfolio rebalancing process that reflects changes in market interest rates. Outside Project Chapter 11 Realized Returns on Bonds vs. Their Promised Yields What kind of returns have investors earned lately? How do last year’s realized returns stack up against the yields (i.e., yields-to-maturity) promised at the time of purchase? Realized returns on bonds are of interest to investors because past performance may give clues to the current trends and may suggest possible trend shifts. The purpose of this project is to look at holding period returns for the past year on bonds. Obtain a Wall Street Journal that’s approximately one year old, and select four corporate bonds that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange (make sure they’re non-convertible). Select maturities of 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 20 years. Record the prices, coupons, and maturities of your four bonds; also determine the promised yield for each issue. Now, look up the same bonds today. Calculate the holding period return actually realized for each security over the past year. Note the effect of coupon and maturity on each bond’s return. Contrast the promised yield of each bond with its realized return. How do you explain the difference?