Table S1. Predicted and observed development times of immature H. merope under
cycling temperatures. Observed development times were derived from weekly
measurements of 48 larvae raised on potted Panic Veldt grass in a shade house in
Melbourne over the winter of 2007. Cycling temperatures recorded in grass tussocks by
temperature data loggers were converted to CTE and used to predict development times
based on the fitted equations for thermal dependence of development rate for each life
stage. Temperatures within individual grass tussocks varied, resulting in a range of
predicted development times.
Development Stage
Egg
Instar 1
Instar 2
Instar 3
Instar 4
Predicted
development time
(days)
19-20
19-26
21-23
24-27
29-32
Mean
observed
development
time (days)
19.2
29.5
29.6
29.4
26.5
Range of
observed
development
times (days)
8 - 25
18 - 43
20 - 44
23 - 40
22 - 34
Table S2. Climate model simulations used to assess the anthropogenic influence on
historical climate in the Melbourne region.
Data from four different coupled ocean-atmosphere models of the global climate were
used. These data were made available through the World Climate Research Programme’s
Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 multi-model data archive at the Program for
Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison at the Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, US (Meehl et al., 2007).
Model ID
Atmospheric
resolution
Control
run
length
Number of
20th century
simulations
NCAR
CCSM3
Reference
~1.4 x 1.4
horizontal;
26 levels
230 y
5
Collins, W.D., et al., 2006. J. Clim., 19,
2122–2143.
CCCma
CGCM3
~2.8 x 2.8
horizontal;
31 levels
500
5
Flato, G.M., 2005
http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/models/cgc
m3.shtml.
ECHAM5
~1.9 x 1.9
horizontal;
31 levels
500
4
Jungclaus, J.H., et al., 2006. J. Clim., 19,
3952–3972.
NCAR
PCM
~2.8 x 2.8
horizontal;
26 levels
500
4
Washington, W.M., et al., 2000 Clim.
Dyn., 16, 755–774.
To assess whether the observed change in climate can be attributed to human influence,
the observed April-October mean temperature trend for 1944-2007 from the high quality
weather station at Laverton was compared with output from climate model simulations
both including and excluding anthropogenic climate forcing for the single model grid box
overlying Melbourne and Laverton. Anthropogenic climate forcing included observed
increases in greenhouse gases and estimated variations of anthropogenic aerosols, while
natural external climate forcing included estimated changes in solar irradiance and
volcanic aerosols. Multi-member ensembles of simulations from the four climate models
with prescribed changes in both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcing were
used to provide regional temperature data for 1944-2007. The range of possible trends
due to natural internal climate variability was estimated using the variability of 64-year
trends of regional temperature from extended control model simulations (including only
natural climate variation with no changes in external forcing).
Meehl, G. A., et al., 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in
Climate Change Research, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383–1394.
Figure S1. Observed and predicted hourly grass tussock temperatures at Melbourne,
Victoria in a) June, b) July, and c) August. Temperatures predicted by the microclimate
model did not differ significantly from the observed temperatures in any month (paired ttest t1,11= -1.136, P=0.201; July t1,11=2.11, P=0.059 ; August t1,11=1.46 , P=0.173). In
contrast, air temperature (2m) was significantly higher than grass tussock temperature in
all months (paired t-test: June, t1,11=16.275, P<0.001; July t1,11=29.866, P<0.001; August
t1,11=22.845, P<0.001).
Temperature (°C)
a)
b)
c)
Time (h)