FTR Report
Umbrella Programme on Emergency Management
between China and UNDP
Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in
Alpine Areas in Western China and its
Demonstration Project
United Nations Development Programme, China
China International Center for Economic and Technical
Exchanges
National Programme Office
August 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Acronyms
APR
CICETE
cm2
EOP
FTR
kg
km
kW
LNG
m
M
MEP
mg
MNES
MOEF
MoST
MoC
MoF
NPC
NPD
PIR
PMO
ProDoc
QOR
RCB
RTA
STEP
ToR
TPR
UHC
UNDAF
UNDP
UNDP CO
Annual Project Report
China International Center for Economic and Technical Exchanges
square centimeter (area)
end-of-project
Final-Term Review
kilogram (1,000 grams)
kilometer (1,000 meters)
kilowatt (1,000 watts)
Liquefied Natural Gas
meter (1 meter = 100 centimeters)
Million (population)
Ministry of Environmental Protection
milligram
Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (India)
Ministry of Environment and Forests (India)
Ministry of Science and Technology
Ministry of Commerce
Ministry of Finance
National Project Coordinator
National Project Director
Project Implementation Report
Project Management Office
Project Document
Quarterly Operation Report
Regional Central Bureau
Regional Technical Adviser
Sustainable Transport Energy (Perth, Australia)
Terms of Reference
Tripartite review
Unburnt Hydro Carbon
United Nations Development Assistance Framework
United Nations Development Programme
UNDP Country Office
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Final Evaluation Mission
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September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................IV
1.0
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT ..................................................................................................... 1
1.2
PURPOSE OF THE EVALUATION ............................................................................................................... 2
1.3
KEY ISSUES ADDRESSED AND SCOPE OF THE EVALUATION .................................................................... 2
1.4
METHODOLOGY OF THE FINAL-TERM REVIEW (FTR) ............................................................................ 2
1.5
SPECIFIC TASKS FOR THE FTR ................................................................................................................ 4
1.6
LIMITATION OF THE FTR ........................................................................................................................ 4
2.0
PROJECT AND ITS DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT ........................................................................... 5
2.1
PROJECT START AND KEY DATES ........................................................................................................... 5
2.2
ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES ................................................................................................................ 6
2.3
PROBLEMS THAT THE PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS ............................................................................... 7
2.4
IMMEDIATE AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT .............................................................. 7
2.5
MAIN STAKEHOLDERS AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................ 8
2.6
RESULTS EXPECTED AND ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS ......................................................................... 9
3.0
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 11
3.1
ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE ....................................................... 11
3.2
ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOMES ................................................................................................................. 12
3.3
PROJECT FORMULATION REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 12
3.3.1
Conceptualization / Project Design and Work Plan ........................................................................ 12
3.3.2
Project Performance / Timeliness, Quality and Cost-Effectiveness ................................................ 12
3.3.3
Project Impact ................................................................................................................................. 13
3.3.4
Government Policies and Relevance ............................................................................................... 13
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Final Evaluation Mission
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3.4
Flood Forecasting in Western China
PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION REVIEW .................................................................................................... 13
3.4.1
Component Level ............................................................................................................................. 14
3.4.2
Project Level .................................................................................................................................... 14
3.5
4.0
CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................................... 16
RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 19
4.1
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NEXT STAGE ................................................................................................. 19
4.2
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OTHER UNDP PROJECTS .............................................................................. 19
5.0
BEST PRACTICES AND LESSONS LEARNED............................................................................... 20
5.1
BEST PRACTICES ................................................................................................................................... 20
5.2
LESSONS LEARNED ............................................................................................................................... 20
6.0
ANNEX A - LIST OF EXHIBITIONS, CONFERENCES, WORKSHOPS AND SEMINARS ..... 21
7.0
ANNEX B - LIST OF PERSONS AND THEIR AFFILIATIONS .................................................... 21
8.0
ANNEX C - LIST OF DOCUMENTS REVIEWED ........................................................................... 23
9.0
ANNEX D - ACTUAL ACHIEVEMENTS AS OF JUNE 23, 2013 ................................................... 24
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Final Evaluation Mission
III
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Executive Summary
This Final-Term Review (FTR) Report is part of the monitoring and evaluation requirement in the
implementation of the UNDP project entitled “Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in Alpine
Areas in Western China and its Demonstration Project”, which belongs to Umbrella Programme on
Emergency Management. The main Implementing Agencies are Aeromatex Inc. (AEROMATEX) and
Water Resources Department of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (WRD). The objective of
this project is to enhance the flood control and disaster reduction capacity under climate change for
China’s western river-basins, which mostly derive from inland snow and ice melting. Typical riverbasin will be selected as study cases, in which meteorological and hydrological monitoring nets will
be constructed and remote-sensing satellites be used to monitor snow & ice melting. Modeling and
simulating will be undertaken for flood forecasting and a flood management system will be
established to support decision making. Through a phase-based approach (i.e. from pilot study to
demonstration project, then to overall implementation), an emergency management regime will be
explored and established. We hope this project would guarantee a scientific foundation for a
sustainable development in west China.
The attainment of the project’s goal and objective is rated “Satisfactory (S)” while the attainment of
Outcomes 1, 2 and 3 is also rated “Satisfactory”. Therefore, the FTR team rated the overall progress
towards achievement of results for the project to be “Satisfactory (S)”. The most important conclusions
arising from this final-term evaluation includes:
(1) In the aspect of national strategy, the prevention of flood and disaster is an important problem
concerning national economy development and building a well-off society and own the largest impact on
the social stability and safety. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, as the largest provincial cross-sections
of China, had been suffering from the flood and dry disaster. As the climate change and socio-economical
development, the range, frequency and disaster extent of storm disaster showed an upward trend year after
year. Currently, the mechanism in prevention of flood and disaster is incomplete, especially in western
region, which faces many constraints including poor infrastructure, low crisis-management level, climate
change and increased extreme weather events. The completion of this project, the development of
subsystems of data acquisition in snow remote sensing and image processing, provides the foundational
support for snow remote sensing monitoring model and snowmelt flood forecast model and lies a very
good foundation for the prevention of flood and disaster in western China.
(2) In the aspect of technology, the following four achievements are obtained: (1) sensing data product:
complete the acquisition in snow remote sensing data for application in snowmelt flood forecast, where
raster product is provided as Geotiff form and owns well geometry orientation precision; vector product is
provided as shp or Arc Coverage form and owns integrated attribute information. The precision of data
product is above 85%. (2) snow data product: complete statistical analysis of acquired snow data and
generate the statistical distribution of data product in the project region. Finally, an analytical report is
provided. The snow data acquisition in subproject “spatial data acquisition and process in the project
region” achieves some fruits and obtains some snow data including frequency and snow depth, which
provides high-precision data support for flood forecast model study and demonstration project in Alpine
Areas in Western China and promotes the development of data acquisition technology in Alpine Areas in
Western China. (3) data acquisition product in base topography: completes the statistical analysis for
extracted topography and soil data and obtains the statistical distribution of data product in the project
region. (4) data acquisition and analysis product of vegetation and land use sensing data: obtains the land
use data from 1998 to 2007 every five years; meanwhile, the production of this data is classified through
integrated approach of object-oriented classification technology and visual interpretation, leading to the
high-precision classification results for providing fundamental data to the flood forecast system in highcold mountainous districts. However, due to the many aspects of reasons, there is also a distance between
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Final Evaluation Mission
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September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
the main achievements of technological level and snowmelt flood forecast. It is possible that build
snowmelt flood forecast model and management mechanism if this project will obtain some further
investment.
(3) In the aspect of project management, the effective management for this project is completed through
the following three aspects and ensures the successful implementation of this project. (1) scope
management: the successful implementation of this project is ensured through establishing the CCB and
completing argumentation and examination in large alter of project execution to avoid any uncontrollable
deviation and scope extension. (2) schedule management: during the project planning phase, designs the
planning process and organizes the judgments at the point of planning process for ensuring the successful
implementation of this project and completing the tasks early. (3) quality management: intends to project
work according to the designed objective and potential output and effectively ensure the quality of the
project.
(4) in the aspect of the establishment of the partnership, during the project execution, the project
organization and execution units (including UNDP 、 China International Centre for Economic and
Technical Exchanges (CICETE) of the Ministry of Commerce of China, Xinjiang Water Resources
Bureau and Aeromatex Incorporation) establish well communication mechanism and effectively ensure
the successful implementation of this project, and also provide well foundations for other project.
(5) Subjected to the restrictions of time and region, it is difficult that the experts arrive at the scene and
complete the evaluation. It is suggested that some field trip should be arranged in other similar projects.
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Final Evaluation Mission
V
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
1.0 Introduction
This Final-Term Review (FTR) Report is part of the monitoring and evaluation requirement
in the implementation of the UNDP project entitled “Research on Modeling for Flood
Forecasting in Alpine Areas in Western China and its Demonstration Project”, which belongs to
Umbrella Programme on Emergency Management. The main Implementing Agencies are
Aeromatex Inc. (AEROMATEX) and Water Resources Department of the Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region (WRD). The objective of this project is to enhance the flood control and
disaster reduction capacity under climate change for China’s western river-basins, which
mostly derive from inland snow and ice melting. Typical river-basin will be selected as study
cases, in which meteorological and hydrological monitoring nets will be constructed and
remote-sensing satellites be used to monitor snow & ice melting. Modeling and simulating
will be undertaken for flood forecasting and a flood management system will be established
to support decision making. Through a phase-based approach (i.e. from pilot study to
demonstration project, then to overall implementation), an emergency management regime
will be explored and established. We hope this project would guarantee a scientific
foundation for a sustainable development in west China.
On July 2, 2013, the evaluation experts had an appraisal and discussion meeting with the
Local Project Management Offices (LPMO) and China International Centre for Economic and
Technical Exchanges (CICETE) of the Ministry of Commerce of China. During the
inspection, we collected and analyzed data with proper tools to conduct our evaluation. The
Indicators as specified in the annual work plans (AWP) were selected to measure the results.
For case study, quantitative description and analysis were supplied.
1.1 Brief Description of the Project
UNDP emergency plan "Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in Alpine Areas in
Western China and its Demonstration Project " (Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting
in Alpine Areas) is joint implement by UNDP, Ministry of Commerce China International
Economic and Technical Exchange Center (Exchange Center), Water Resources Department
of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. All the activities are carried out under UNDP
nationally executed project management procedures and relevant Chinese laws and
regulations.
Project Steering Committee (PSC) co-chair is composed of UNDP, communication center,
Water Resources Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Steering Committee
responsible for working with the project planning, implementation strategies, management
restructuring decisions and other important matters through the annual review will be held
each year, and popularize the project results at the provincial, national and international levels.
Consider the implementation of the project and water conservancy infrastructure construction
and the state flood control work closely, PSC decide to invite Ministry of Water Resources
and experts in other departments to make up the Coordinating Committee and responsible for
the project implementation process technology, policy and other aspects of the coordination.
The project is mainly carried out the following activities: High mountain hydrological station
design, purchase office equipment and vehicle, meteorological instrumentation selection and
purchasing, select and purchase. Hydrological monitoring equipment selection and purchasing,
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Final Evaluation Mission
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
mountain weather station construction, automatic runoff monitoring stations, automatic
station equipment installation, snow observation station selection, monitoring transmission
platform network information building, software development, remote sensing software
development, GIS software development, three-dimensional modeling software development,
database software development, spatial data processing system building, snow monitoring
remote sensing software building, flood mitigation and management system building,
summary and formulate work plans for next year during project implementation period,
hydrological monitoring method training, flood control and management system application
training, snowmelt flood control management system training.
1.2 Purpose of the Review
This Final-Term Review (FTR) Report is part of the monitoring and evaluation requirement
in the implementation of the project entitled “Research on Modeling for Flood Forecasting in
Alpine Areas in Western China and its Demonstration Project”. This project which started
disbursing on October 2010 and has now reached final-term stage as of July 2013 in terms of
physical and financial delivery and therefore, a final-term evaluation is being conducted now.
The purpose of the FTR is to evaluate the project implementation and management performances.
It will determine whether the project is on track to achieve the project objective and therefore just
need to be sustained as it approaches the end of project (EOP). The project evaluation will also
determine and report on the experiences and lessons learnt during the project implementation so as
to provide guidance in determining the targets and strategies for similar UNDP projects. In this
regard, the findings and recommendations of this evaluation will contribute to identifying best
possible ways to advance the modern modes for Umbrella Programme on Emergency
Management.
1.3 Key Issues Addressed and Scope of the Review
The scope of the FTR covered the entire UNDP-funded project and its components as well as the
co-financed activities in each component of the project. The FTR will assess the project
implementation taking into account the status of the project activities and outputs and the resource
disbursements made up to the final evaluation review date. The evaluation involved analysis at
two levels: component level and project level. The FTR also included such aspects as
appropriateness and relevance of work plan, compliance with the work and financial plan with
budget allocation, timeliness of disbursements, procurement, coordination among project team
members and committees, and the UNDP country office support. Any issue or factor that has
impeded or accelerated the implementation of the project or any of its components, including
actions taken and resolutions, made were highlighted.
1.4 Methodology of the Final-Term Review (FTR)
A Final-Term Review Team comprising Dr. Gordon Huang (International Consultant and Team
Head) and other international consultant and team members was formed by the UNDP. They
conducted the FTR from July 2 to August 30, 2013 taking into account the status of project
activities, outputs and resource disbursements made up to July 2, 2013. The itinerary is shown in
Annex A1- FTR Schedule of Meetings and Site Visits.
Largely, the methodology consisted of:
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Final Evaluation Mission
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China


Flood Forecasting in Western China
Review of key documents such as the evaluator’s Terms of Reference (ToR), final
evaluation report, Project Document (ProDoc) and Project Logical Framework (Log
Frame), Annual Project Review (APR) and Project Implementation Report (PIR),
Quarterly Operation Report (QOR), Combined Delivery Report and Mid-Term Review
Report (MTR) ;
Interviews of PMO, key sub-contracting personnel, and UNDP Country Office
Counterparts (see Annex B - List of Persons and Their Affiliations)


Site visits to Aeromatex Inc. (see Annex A1- FTR Schedule of Meetings and Site Visits)
Review of public awareness and education activities (see Annex A2 - List of Exhibitions,
Conferences, Workshops and Seminars

Review of sub-contract reports

Review of other UNDP projects on government policies in development of Modeling for
Flood Forecasting in China.
After the review of documents, interview of personnel, appreciation of power point presentation
materials and onsite visiting the FTR Team analyzed and synthesized the information to deliver
the following outputs of this final evaluation:


Report presenting the final-term evaluation results of the project, recommendations for
the implementation of any remaining activities, and suggestions for implementation of the
Third National Communication. The report would be submitted to UNDP in electronic
format.
The findings of the evaluation will be used by the project team in preparing the other
UNDP projects in several cities in China.
The FTR followed the rating chart as guidelines in rating the progress and performance of a
project. The details of the rating system are given in the table below:
Table 1-1: Chart for rating the project
Highly
Satisfactory
(HS)
Satisfactory (S)
Marginally
Satisfactory
(MS)
Marginally
Unsatisfactory
(MU)
Unsatisfactory
(U)
Highly
Unsatisfactory
(HU)
Project is expected to achieve or exceed all its major global environmental
objectives, and yield substantial global environmental benefits, without major
shortcomings. The project can be presented as “good practice”.
Project is expected to achieve most of its major global environmental
objectives, and yield satisfactory global environmental benefits, with only
minor shortcomings.
Project is expected to achieve most of its major relevant objectives but with
either significant shortcomings or modest overall relevance. Project is
expected not to achieve some of its major global environmental objectives or
yield some of the expected global environment benefits.
Project is expected to achieve its major global environmental objectives with
major shortcomings or is expected to achieve only some of its major global
environmental objectives.
Project is expected not to achieve most of its major global environment
objectives or to yield any satisfactory global environmental benefits.
The project has failed to achieve, and is not expected to achieve, any of its
major global environment objectives with no worthwhile benefits.
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Flood Forecasting in Western China
1.5 Specific Tasks for the FTR
The specific tasks for the FTR covered the review pertinent documents related to the project such as
project document, quarterly and annual progress reports, other activity/component specific
deliverables, reports and evaluation, if there are any, etc; conduct of structured interview with
knowledgeable parties; and visit various pilot project sites. The evaluation mission will carry out the
following tasks:
1) Review of the project design, and planning to find out whether: (a) the project approaches
and strategy are sound; (b) the immediate objectives and outputs are properly stated and
verifiable in the project logical framework; (c) the timeframe of the project is feasible and
practicable; and, (d) others.
2) Review of project performance: timeliness and quality of inputs; timeliness and costeffectiveness of activities undertaken; quality and quantity of outputs produced; achievement
of outcomes; and a financial review against the project budget.
3) Review the project impact: determine the extent to which the project objectives are expected
to be achieved and what are the short-term and long-term impact of the project, including
efficiency of the project, cost-effectiveness of the project;
4) Study the government policies in development of Modeling for Flood Forecasting for the
Chinese cities and assess the relevance of the project against the national development
priorities and objectives;
5) Analyze the current Modeling for Flood Forecasting projects in other countries, and the
domestic and international market developments in supply and demand of the technology to
find out and advise potentials for possible project expansion;
6) Analyze and report on the good practices and lessons learnt in partnership building of the
project with companies and agencies in introducing the technology of Modeling for Flood
Forecasting and designing Emergency Management actions in expanded demonstration
cities in China
7) Provide recommendations on the improvement or sustenance of the implementation;
potential aspects of Modeling for Flood Forecasting that can be covered in a future planned
Phase of the project; and actions to be taken to support the sustainable development for
Emergency Management actions and applications in China.
8) Revisit the MTR Report to see if the key recommendations have been put into practice in the
process of project implementation.
1.6 Limitation of the FTR
The FTR team was provided by the UNDP and PMO with the required documents prior to the
actual mission to facilitate understanding of the scope of the evaluation, project document,
progress implementation report, financial report and power point presentation of selected sectors.
To supplement the information, the FTR team provided the PMO with a list for supplementary
documents to be filled up after the related site visits. The FTR report is based and limited to
information obtained from onsite visiting and the following documents:
 Project implementation information table;
 Project implementation plan and work plan;
 Project 2011 annual review meeting minutes;
 Project 2011 annual development work summary report;
 Project 2012 annual development work summary report;
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Final Evaluation Mission
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
 Snow remote sensing data processing results report;
 Basic topography and soil data collection and analysis results;
 Vegetation and land use remote sensing data processing results analysis report.
2.0 Project and Its Development Context
Flood control is a major strategic issues and it affects China's economic development social
stability and moderately prosperous society building. Xinjiang is China's largest provincial of the
provincial administrative units, and it often plagued by flood and drought. Xinjiang flood disasters
range, frequency and extent showed an increasing trend with climate change and the economic
and social development. There have been five large floods, during 1996 to 2006, several rivers
encounter hundred year flood in the past 10 years and the cumulative flood losses in Xinjiang
reached 8.368 billion Yuan. The range of snowfall in Xinjiang province more than usual last
winter, over the high incidence of northern snowmelt floods since this spring, Snowmelt occurs
frequently throughout Northern Xinjiang province, floods have occurred 45 times so far, 15.55
million people were affected and three people were killed by the disaster, bring indirect economic
losses more than 300 million Yuan.
At present, China flood control mechanism is not complete, especially in the western regions.
Poor infrastructure and relatively low level of crisis management constraints of traditional factors
still exist. Chinese government attaches great importance to flood and drought. In the calendar
year the central document, both pointed out the need to increase investment for flood control, a
variety of traditional and non-traditional challenges of superposition, the flood control task more
arduous. How to cope with various challenges and achieve sustainable development of society are
China’s serious problems to be solved.
2.1 Project Start and Key Dates
The project chronology and milestones of this 4-year project is shown below:
Task
Activity 1.1
Hydrological
meteorological
instrumentation
selection and
designing：
Activity 1.2 High
mountain
meteorological
station building
Activity 1.3 High
mountain
hydrological
station building
Detail
Meteorological elements automatic monitoring;
hydrological elements automatic monitoring. And
enhance the level of hydrological information
monitoring.
Adjust the preliminary design, complete automatic
weather stations Beidou satellite hardware and
software interface development, the formation of the
final version of the layout of the program.
Four
automatic
weather
station
complete
construction; 3 ultrasonic water level station complete
building.
two mountain weather complete construction, take
Beidou satellite/GSM communication, achieve
automatic data acquisition mountain weather Transmission-accept network platform.
Alpine hydrological monitoring station complete
building.
Completion Time
Jan to May, 2011
Jan to May, 2012
Jul to Aug, 2011
Jul to Aug, 2012
Aug, 2012
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Activity 1.4
Project staff study
and tour abroad
Activity 1.5
Topography, soil,
snow, vegetation
and land use data
acquisition and
processing
Activity
2.5
Remote
sensing
image
enhancement
module
development
Activity 2.6 Image
automatic
registration
module
development
Activity 2.7 Image
geometry
correction module
development
Activity 2.8 Image
mosaic and color
uniform module
development
Activity 2.9 Snow
remote sensing
interactive
information
extraction and
editing
Activity 2.10 Data
quality evaluation
module
development
Activity 2.11
Project annual
summary
Activity 2.12
Annual Review of
the project
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Study snowmelt flood warning control techniques
hydro-meteorological site laid principle flood
forecasting model construction principle and
predictors extraction technology in Canada and the
United States.
Remote sensing monitoring model for the snowmelt
flood forecasting and early warning models based on
topography, soil, vegetation and land use to support
the overall objective of supporting the completion of
the project.
Sep to Oct, 2011
Complet the image enhancement and development
work stretching module, the module can highlight
topics snow and ice data to facilitate post-extraction
operation.
Apr, 2012
Complete module development work; select the
image and the reference image processing control
points as the conditions for geometric correction.
Apr, 2012
Complete module development work with the
original image and the study area space match.
May, 2012
Complete module development work that can splice
multiple images into the completed study area.
Jun, 2012
Complete the snow remote sensing system which can
extract and edit snow cover and snow water calculate.
Sep, 2012
Complete the whole process of the data quality
evaluates.
Sep, 2012
Completed project annual development work
summary report and design work plans for next year.
Nov, 2012
Organized the annual review and invite well-known
experts in the field, and the group agreed that the
successful completion of the annual work.
Nov 14, 2012
Dec, 2011
2.2 Roles and Responsibilities
The CICETE (China International Center for Economic and Technical Exchanges) who oversees
the project assisted the UNDP and the FTR team in preparing for the Final-Term Review of the
project. The FTR Team reported to the UNDP and CICETE. The project’s executing agency
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
(MoST) coordinated all relevant national and the international agencies and companies and
provided in advance copies of the necessary documents needed by the evaluation expert/s.
Likewise, the Executing Agency (Aeromatex Inc. Aeromatex Inc.) arranged and finalized the
itinerary / schedule for the FTR team in consultation with all parties concerned. The project’s
Chief Technical Advisor (CTA) provided insights of the Modeling for Flood Forecasting to the
FTR Team and discussed with them in detail the technology selection for future Emergency
Management. The EA and UNDP coordinated the logistical arrangements for the evaluation.
2.3 Problems that the Project Seeks to Address
The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is China's largest energy reserve base and one of the
border provinces inhabited by ethnic minorities. It is also an important production base for
commodity cotton, grain production base. However, flood threat greatly affected social stability
and development and is not conducive to China's stability and harmonious development. Because
of long-term lack of investment in infrastructure, the hydrology and meteorological elements
monitoring in mountainous area in Xinjiang is not enough. The source water for Xinjiang’ rives
are high in the mountains, but also mainly by mountain snowmelt water. Due to lack of observed
data about mountain precipitation, temperature, snow distribution, there is no real practical flood
forecasting system in Xinjiang. According to statistics, the Xinjiang River melting snow flood is
occupied 39%, storm flood (including rainstorm debris) accounted for 24%, mixed melt water
floods and torrential rain accounted for 34%. Therefore, in addition to its general Basin Flood
Forecast storm flood issues involved, they also need special consideration related to the
temperature and snow snowmelt runoff problems. Xinjiang river runoff formation region is
mountainous, plain lost as runoff area, but now more than 90% rainfall stations layout in the
following 2000mmountain pass or plain. Due to insufficient data on the mountain precipitation,
inaccurate grasp of the flow region, flood forecasting methods and technology lagged far behind
and cannot meet the needs of flood prevention work. This project chooses Kumalak River as the
study area, the river originated in the widest glacier area of the central Tianshan mountains-Khan
Tengri area. With an annual runoff of 4.61×109m3, Kumalak River is one of the two tributaries of
the Aksu River and the major source of floods for Tarim and Akus River. It has typical
characteristics of snowmelt recharge and is a representation of Tarim River Basin, even a
representation of Xinjiang. Take Kumalak River as the research object, complement necessary
mountainous area monitoring, make full use of remote sensing data, develop flood forecast model,
establish snowmelt flood forecasting system have great significance for the flood control, disaster
mitigation and social development in Xinjiang.
2.4 Immediate and Development Objectives of the Project
The goal of the project is focus on the greatest threat to Xinjiang melt water floods and heavy
rains flood control hybrid capacity building, and focus on climate change, flood monitoring
improvement, early warning, disaster management capacity, and promote social stability and
economic sustainable development.
The objective of the project is enhancing the flood control and disaster reduction capacity under
climate change for China’s western river-basins, which mostly derive from inland snow and ice
melting. Typical river-basin will be selected as study cases, in which meteorological and
hydrological monitoring nets will be constructed and remote-sensing satellites be used to monitor
snow & ice melting. Modeling and simulating will be undertaken for flood forecasting and a flood
management system will be established to support decision making. Through a phase-based
approach (i.e. from pilot study to demonstration project, then to overall implementation), an
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Final Evaluation Mission
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September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
emergency management regime will be explored and established. We hope this project would
guarantee a scientifical foundation for a sustainable development in west China.
The expected outcomes of the project are: (1) (2) and (3)
Expected outputs 1. Improve the watershed hydrological information monitoring level, and
provided flood forecasting and flood control management date for the flood forecasting. Expected
outputs 2. Enhance flood prevention capacity; establish snowmelt flood forecast model and
Kumalak River flood control management system, and enhance the watershed flood prevention
capacity. Expected outputs 3. Flood control emergency management capacity building; through
the training of relevant professionals and on-site promotion the flood control capacity local
government management improved.
2.5 Main Stakeholders and Institutional Arrangements
During project implementation, Aeromatex Quantum Digital Technology Company lead the
project, Water Resources Department of Xinjiang province and Aeromatex Quantum Digital
Technology Company set up the project management office and responsible communication and
coordination of the project. Water Resources Department of Xinjiang and Aeromatex Quantum
Digital Technology Company appoint deputy chairman of the Project and responsible for the
implementation of the project. Aeromatex Quantum Digital Technology Company responsible for
the implementation of project activities and daily management under the supervision of UNDP.
PMO set up a project group of expert consultants that consist of Ministry of Water Resources,
aerospace, Xinjiang province, and relevant university. Each committee is headed by a Vice Mayor
of the municipality and included representatives from the following municipal level organizations:
the Science and Technology Commission, the Economic and Trade Commission, the
Development Planning Commission, and the Public Transportation Company. The municipal
advisory committees seek advice from outside experts, as needed. The advisory committee meets
quarterly. Undertaker responsible for fulfill allocation funds, and as a major research project
undertaker (share funds supported by the research project, share institution provide finance bills,
original bill retained by the undertaker).
UNDP PMO is responsible for coordinating the project with the UNDP CO relevant project, and
the final review of the project. The project executing agency responsible for coordinate with the
relevant country institution, international institutions and companies, and provide necessary
document for the evaluation experts. While executing agency responsible for the implementation
and evaluation experts arranged itinerary and organize consultations with the relevant parties.
Project's chief technical expert responsible for providing global promotion of the development of
the project's technical support and future development of the project viable technology selected
informative.
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Final Evaluation Mission
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
PMO
Undertaker
Flood Forecasting in Western China
China International Economic and
Technical Exchange Center
UNDP
Hangtian Quantum Digital
Technology Company
Water Resources
Department of Xinjiang
province
Project Office
Project Director
Project Office
Project Backbone
Project Office
Figure: Organization of Main Stakeholders and Institutional Arrangements
2.6 Results Expected and Actual Accomplishments
Annual targets were also provided to guide the team in implementing the 4-year project. The
effect of the revision is providing more clarify in the expected outputs, what activities to pursue in
order to attain the success indicators at the specified time frame. However, the APR/PIR was not
revised to reflect the modifications. The project’s logical frame work (Log Frame) clearly
indicates the expected results or targets at the end of this four year project.
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Flood Forecasting in Western China
Table 2 2: Results Expected from the Project
Expected
output
1.
2.
3.
Activities
Improve the monitoring levels of watershed water regime
information
Improve the monitoring levels of water regime
information in typical watershed region through a special
construction, provide data base for further flood forecast
and management in prevention of flood and disaster and
build an long-term and effective technological modes in
alpine monitor.
The improvement of flood prevention capability: build
snowmelt flood forecast model and management system
in prevention of flood and disaster, establish systematic
management mechanism of prevention of flood and
disaster for enhancing the prevention capability of
watershed’s flood.
Flood mitigation emergency management capacity
building; through training of relevant professionals and
field promotion, it will enhance snowmelt flood
forecasting system and Kumalak River flood control
management system, and improve the local government's
flood control and management ability
Evaluation criteria
1.1.Build monitoring network of weather, water regime and snow information in Kumalak
River watershed
1.2.Build automatic transfer network of watershed’s water regime information
1.3.Build acquisition platform of sensing monitoring data of snow and hydrological
information in Kumalak River watershed
1.4.Build system development platform
2.1.Propose a monitoring model of snow sensing
2.2.Propose a snowmelt flood forecast model
2.3.Propose a precaution and forecast model in prevention of flood and disaster
2.4.Build a processing system of special data in Kumalak River watershed
2.5.Build a monitoring system of snow sensing in Kumalak River watershed
2.6.Build a precaution and forecast system for flood disaster in Kumalak River watershed
2.7. Build a management system for prevention of flood and disaster in Kumalak River
watershed
3.1 Hydrological monitoring systems training twice，60 people
3.2. Flood control management system application training 3 times，90people
3.3. Snowmelt flood control and management meeting once，20 people.
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
The actual accomplishments vs. the targets at final-term of implementation were reported each
year during the project implementation. All the reports of the sub-contractors were prepared and
submitted. According to the PMO, all the reports had been reviewed by the CICETE and UNDP.
These reports were circulated among all the relevant stakeholders and team members. Some
reports have been submitted to UNDP for dissemination. In addition, some of the sub-contract
results will be used as basis for preparation of next Phase.
There is no activity indicator that did not meet its target as shown in Table 2-3 while tabulation
shows the summary of the evaluation. A total of 16 activity indicators met their targets while 1
exceeded target completion requirement. Among them, 2 activity indicators were completed in
advance while 9 will be completed at EOP and the goal of the project is predicted to be completed
5 years after EOP.
Table 2-3 Evaluation of Actual Accomplishments.
Strategy
Goal
Objective
Component 1
Component 2
Component 3
TOTAL
3.0
not
meets
target
meets
target
exceeds
target
advanced
completion
at EOP
completion
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
7
3
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
7
3
15
5
years
after
EOP
1
0
0
0
0
1
Total
indicators
1
1
4
7
3
16
Findings and Conclusions
The FTR team rated the overall progress towards achievement of results for the project to be
“Satisfactory (S)”.
The project is expected to achieve its major goal.
Further, the project has achieved its major relevant objectives。
Assessment of each objective and outcome is presented by stating the objective, outcome, targets
at end of project, physical and financial achievements as of date, assessment of its contribution to
the objective / outcome and finally a rating of the progress. The detailed assessment is presented
in the sections that follow.
3.1 Assessment of progress towards Development Objective
All activity indicators have met the end-of-project targets and 1 indicator exceeds the targets. The
project has well attained its Development Objective. In terms of financial delivery of the project in
support of the various outcomes, the PMO provided the information shows 100% utilization of
UNDP funds.
Overall Assessment of Progress & Rating
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Flood Forecasting in Western China
The overall assessment of the project is “Satisfactory (S)” since all reports have prepared and
submitted and all output indicators meet targets, and financial delivery is 100% of total UNDP
funds while co-financing from government and private sectors is almost 100% as of end June
2013.
Overall, the project has attained its development objective at end-of-project.
3.2 Assessment of Outcomes
The attainment of the project’s goal and objective is rated “Satisfactory (S)” while the attainment
of Outcomes 1, 2 and 3 is also rated “Satisfactory”. Therefore, the FTR team rated the overall
progress towards achievement of results for the project to be “Satisfactory (S)”. The annual
targets are presented in Annex D as to how the project team was guided over the 4-year project
duration.
3.3
Project Formulation Review
This section focuses on the FTR team’s specific tasks of reviewing the project’s formulation: (1)
design and work plan, (2) project performance, (3) project impact, (4) government policies in
development of Modeling for Flood Forecasting in Alpine Areas in Western China (5) current
projects for Modeling for Flood Forecasting in other countries including international market
developments in supply and demand of the technology to find out and advise potentials for
possible project expansion, (6) good practices and lessons learnt in partnership building of the
project with companies and agencies in introducing Modeling for Flood Forecasting and designing
Emergency Management in expanded demonstration provinces in China, (7) recommendations on
the improvement or sustenance of the implementation, potential aspects on commercialization of
Modeling for Flood Forecasting that can be covered in the planned project, and (8) revisit the
MTR Report to see if the key recommendations have been put into practice in the process of
project implementation.
3.3.1
Conceptualization / Project Design and Work Plan
A review of the conceptual design and work plan was conducted to determine whether: (a) the
project approaches and strategy are sound; (b) the immediate objectives and outputs are properly
stated and verifiable in the project’s logical framework; (c) the time frame of the project is feasible
and practicable; and (c) others. During the course of the initial implementation, minor revisions
were made on the Project Document in order to refine the performance measurement (success)
indicators, baseline, target at end-of-project, sources of verification, and risks and assumptions.
Overall, the project design and work plan remain valid and consistent with the project strategy
(goal, objectives and outcomes). The success indicators and targets continue to be specific,
measurable, achievable, reasonable, and time-bounded to achieve the desired project outcomes.
Therefore, the rating for conceptual design of the project is “Satisfactory (S)”.
3.3.2
Project Performance / Timeliness, Quality and Cost-Effectiveness
A review of project performance was conducted to determine: (a) timeliness, quality of inputs and
cost-effectiveness of activities undertaken; (b) quality and quantity of outputs produced; (c)
achievement of outcomes; and (d) financial review against the project budget. Based on the
reviewed APR/PIR, list of reports completed and sample progress report power point presentation,
all the required inputs, outputs and reports as of 2 July 2013 were obtained and prepared in a
timely manner, of desired quality per reports, and within the financial resources provided for in
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
the project budget. Therefore, the rating for project performance, timeliness, quality and costeffectiveness of the project is “Satisfactory (S)”.
3.3.3
Project Impact
A review of the project impact was made to determine: (a) extent to which project objectives are
expected to be achieved; and (b) what are the short-term and long-term impact of the project,
including the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the project.
Short-term impact of the project:
The application of this project in a typical Kumalak River Basin has the following achievements
as: (1) builds an long-term and effective technological pattern in monitoring the Alpine Areas,
improves the monitoring level of water regime information of watershed, develops snowmelt-type
flood forecast model and management system in prevention of flood and disaster, establishes
systematic management pattern in prevention of flood and disaster, enhance the capability in
preventing flood of watershed region; (2) the train of relational professional personnel and the
promoting meeting in the field improve the management capability of local government in
prevention of flood and disaster and promote the socio-economical development; (3) enhances the
capability in preventing flood, which is the mixed type of snowmelt and storm, and owns the
largest threat for Xinjiang, improves the ability in flood monitoring, forecasting and management
of disaster reduction under the climate change, promotes the society’s stability and economy’s
sustainable development.
Long-term impact of the project:
The achievement in this project is beneficial to the people have suffered from the snowmelt floods
in western China; (2) the successful snowmelt model can be promoted to the entire Central Asia
and is beneficial to the people in other countries through improving the forecasting level in flood
and storm.
3.3.4
Government Policies and Relevance
This section will study government policies in the development of Modeling for Flood Forecasting
in Alpine Areas in Western China and assess the relevance of the project against the national
development priorities and objectives.
(a) the impact of country and province policies on this project during project execution
Currently, the mechanism in prevention of flood and disaster is incomplete, especially in western
region, which faces many constraints including poor infrastructure, low crisis-management level,
climate change and increased extreme weather events, thus, the impact of flood and dry obtains
many concerns from China government. A document issued by the Party Central Committee had
pointed out that, the investment in prevention of flood and disaster should be increased, the
existence of traditional and non-traditional challenges makes the mission in prevention of flood
and disaster much more arduous and complex. How to face these challenges and realize the socioeconomical sustainable development is an important problem.
(b) The reference for country and province policies during project completion
In the aspect of management, enhance the management ability in prevention of flood and disaster
through organized training and technological communications; meanwhile, it is important for
cultivating the general people’s awareness in prevention of flood and disaster. In the aspect of
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
technology, some new models and approaches should be introduced for providing technological
guarantee in storm forecast.
3.4 Project Implementation Review
The FTR team also assessed the project implementation taking into account the status of the
project activities and outputs and the resource disbursements made up to July 1, 2013. A summary
of the status of project activities (accomplishment vs. target) is shown in Table 2-3. The
evaluation of project implementation will involve analysis at two levels: component level and
project level.
3.4.1
Component Level
The evaluation to Project Implementation during the onsite visit for the component level is
summarized below:
Component Level
- Is there effective relationship and communication between/among components
so that data, information, lessons learned, best practices, outputs and crosscutting issues are shared efficiently?
- Are the performance measurement indicators and targets used in the project
monitoring system specific, measurable, achievable, reasonable and timebounded to achieve desired project outcomes?
Kumalak
Y
Y
Y
- Was the use of consultants successful in achieving the component outputs?
- Appropriateness and relevance of work plan, compliance with the work and
financial plan with the budget allocation
- Timeliness of disbursements, procurement, coordination among project team
members and committees and UNDP country office support
- Any issue or factor that impeded or accelerated the implementation of the
project or any of its components, including actions taken and resolutions made
should be highlighted
Y
Y
Y
Based on the compilation of response on effectiveness of project implementation at the component
level, the rating is “Satisfactory (S)”.
3.4.2
Project Level
The evaluation to Project Implementation during the onsite visit for the project level is
summarized below:
Project Level
a) Progress towards achievement of results
- Is the project making satisfactory progress in achieving project outputs vis-à-vis
the targets and related delivery of inputs and activities?
- Are the direct partners and project consultants able to provide necessary inputs or
achieve results?
Kumalak
Y
Y
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
- Given the level of achievement of outputs and related inputs and activities to-date,
is the Project likely to achieve its purpose/objective and contribute to the realization
of its goal?
b) Factors affecting successful implementation and achievement of results
- Is the project implementation and achievement of results proceeding well and
according to plan?
- Or are there any outstanding issues, obstacles, bottlenecks, etc. on the following
sectors that are affecting the successful implementation and achievement of project
results?
consumer (public)
government (national and local)
private sector
public sector as a whole
- To what extent does the broader policy environment remain conducive to
achieving expected project results, including existing and planned
legislations
rules and regulations
policy guidelines
government priorities
- Is the project logical framework and design still relevant in the light of the project
experience to date?
- To what extent do critical assumptions/risks in project design make true under
present circumstances and on which project success still hold?
has the project team validated these assumptions as presently viewed by the
project management?
are there new assumptions/risks that should be raised?
- Is the project well-placed and integrated within the national government
development strategies such as community development, poverty reduction, etc.
and related global development programs?
- Are the Project's institutional and implementation arrangements still relevant and
helpful or hinder in achieving the Project's objectives and outcomes?
or are there any institutional concerns that hinder the Project's implementation
and progress
c) Project management framework (adaptive management framework)
- Are the project management arrangements adequate and appropriate?
- How effective is the project managed at all levels?
- Is it results-based and innovative?
- Do the project management systems, including progress reporting, administrative
and financial systems, and monitoring and evaluation system operate as:
effective management tools
aid in effective implementation, and
provide sufficient basis for evaluating performance and decision making?
- Is technical assistance and support from project partners and stakeholders
appropriate, adequate and timely?
- Validate whether the risks originally identified in the Project Document and
currently in the APR/PIR are the most critical and the assessments and risk ratings
placed are reasonable
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
- Describe additional risks identified during the evaluation, if any, and suggest risk
ratings and possible risk management strategies to be adopted
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Y
- Assess the use of project logical framework and work plans as management tools
and in meeting with UNDP requirements in planning and reporting
- Assess the use of electronic information and communication technologies in the
implementation and management of the project
- On the financial management side, assess the cost effectiveness of the
interventions and note any irregularities
- How have the APR/PIR process helped in monitoring and evaluating the project
implementation and achievement of results?
d) Strategic partnerships (project positioning and leveraging)
Y
Y
Y
- Are the project partners strategically and optimally positioned and effectively
leveraged to achieve maximum effect of Emergency Management.
Efficiency program objectives for the country?
- How do the project partners, stakeholders and co-financing institutions involved in
the Project’s adaptive management framework?
Y
- Are there further opportunities for stronger collaboration and substantive
partnerships identified to enhance the project’s achievement of results and
outcomes?
Y
- Are the project information and progress of activities disseminated to project
partners and stakeholders? Are there areas to improve in the collaboration and
partnership mechanisms?
Y
Y
Based on the compilation of response on effectiveness of project implementation at the project
level, the rating is “Satisfactory (S)”.
3.5 Conclusions
The most important conclusions arising from this final-term evaluation includes:
(1) In the aspect of national strategy, the prevention of flood and disaster is an important problem
concerning national economy development and building a well-off society and own the largest
impact on the social stability and safety. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, as the largest
provincial cross-sections of China, had been suffering from the flood and dry disaster. As the
climate change and socio-economical development, the range, frequency and disaster extent of
storm disaster showed an upward trend year after year. Currently, the mechanism in prevention of
flood and disaster is incomplete, especially in western region, which faces many constraints
including poor infrastructure, low crisis-management level, climate change and increased extreme
weather events. The completion of this project, the development of subsystems of data acquisition
in snow remote sensing and image processing, provides the foundational support for snow remote
sensing monitoring model and snowmelt flood forecast model and lies a very good foundation for
the prevention of flood and disaster in western China.
(2) In the aspect of technology, the following four achievements are obtained: (1) sensing data
product: complete the acquisition in snow remote sensing data for application in snowmelt flood
forecast, where raster product is provided as Geotiff form and owns well geometry orientation
precision; vector product is provided as shp or Arc Coverage form and owns integrated attribute
information. The precision of data product is above 85%. (2) snow data product: complete
statistical analysis of acquired snow data and generate the statistical distribution of data product in
the project region. Finally, an analytical report is provided. The snow data acquisition in
subproject “spatial data acquisition and process in the project region” achieves some fruits and
obtains some snow data including frequency and snow depth, which provides high-precision data
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
support for flood forecast model study and demonstration project in Alpine Areas in Western
China and promotes the development of data acquisition technology in Alpine Areas in Western
China. (3) data acquisition product in base topography: completes the statistical analysis for
extracted topography and soil data and obtains the statistical distribution of data product in the
project region. (4) data acquisition and analysis product of vegetation and land use sensing data:
obtains the land use data from 1998 to 2007 every five years; meanwhile, the production of this
data is classified through integrated approach of object-oriented classification technology and
visual interpretation, leading to the high-precision classification results for providing fundamental
data to the flood forecast system in high-cold mountainous districts. However, due to the many
aspects of reasons, there is also a distance between the main achievements of technological level
and snowmelt flood forecast. It is possible that build snowmelt flood forecast model and
management mechanism if this project will obtain some further investment.
(3) In the aspect of project management, the effective management for this project is completed
through the following three aspects and ensures the successful implementation of this project. (1)
scope management: the successful implementation of this project is ensured through establishing
the CCB and completing argumentation and examination in large alter of project execution to
avoid any uncontrollable deviation and scope extension. (2) schedule management: during the
project planning phase, designs the planning process and organizes the judgments at the point of
planning process for ensuring the successful implementation of this project and completing the
tasks early. (3) quality management: intends to project work according to the designed objective
and potential output and effectively ensure the quality of the project.
(4) in the aspect of the establishment of the partnership, during the project execution, the project
organization and execution units (including UNDP、China International Centre for Economic
and Technical Exchanges (CICETE) of the Ministry of Commerce of China, Xinjiang Water
Resources Bureau and Aeromatex Incorporation) establish well communication mechanism and
effectively ensure the successful implementation of this project, and also provide well foundations
for other project.
(5) Subjected to the restrictions of time and region, it is difficult that the experts arrive at the scene
and complete the evaluation. It is suggested that some field trip should be arranged in other similar
projects.
With respect to evaluation of performance at the component level, the following could be
concluded by the FTR Team:



There is effective relationship and communications between team members so that data,
information, lessons learned, best practices and outputs are shared efficiently, including crosscutting issues.
The performance measurement (success) indicators and targets used in the project monitoring
system are specific, measurable, achievable, reasonable and time-bounded to achieve desired
project outcomes.
The use of consultants has been successful in guiding the Chinese experts and research
institutions in implementing the various activities of the project.
With respect to performance at the project level, the following conclusions were made by the FTR
team:
(a) Progress towards achievement of results (internal and within the project’s control):
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Final Evaluation Mission
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China



Flood Forecasting in Western China
The project is making satisfactory progress in achieving project outputs vis-à-vis the
targets and delivery of inputs and activities at the end of project
The direct partners and project consultants were able to provide necessary inputs and
results
The project is likely to achieve its purpose/objective and contribute to the attainment of
its goal
(b) Factors affecting successful implementation and achievement of results (beyond the Project’s
immediate control or project-design factors that influence outcomes and results):






The project implementation and achievement of results are proceeding well and according
to plan, and there are no outstanding issues, obstacles, bottlenecks, etc. from various
stakeholders However,
The broader policy environment remain conducive to achieving expected project results,
including existing and planned legislations, rules, regulations, policy guidelines and
government priorities.
The project’s logical framework and design remain relevant in the light of the
implementation experience to date.
There are no new critical assumptions / risks that need to be raised on top of what were
previously validated by the project team.
The project is well-placed and integrated within the national government development
strategies such as community development, poverty reduction, etc. and aligned to global
development programs.
The project’s institutional and implementation arrangements are still relevant and helpful
in achieving its goal, objective and outcomes; there are no institutional concerns that
hinder its implementation and progress towards completion
(c) Project management (adaptive management framework):










The project management arrangements remain adequate and appropriate as evidenced by
the progress reports and is observed to be results-based and innovative
The project is well managed at all levels
The project management systems (progress reporting, administrative and financial
systems, and monitoring and evaluation systems) are effective and provide sufficient
basis for evaluating performance and facilitating decision making
Technical assistance and support from project partners and stakeholders were found to be
appropriate, adequate and timely
The risks originally identified in the revised Project Document and currently in the
APRs/PIRs are indeed the most critical and the assessments and risk ratings placed are
still reasonable for which the FTR team also concurs
During the interview by the FTR team, there are no additional risks
The use of project’s logical framework and work plans as management tools and in
meeting with UNDP requirements in planning and reporting is deemed effective and the
FTR team itself found it useful in organizing and analyzing the final-term evaluation
results
The effective use of electronic information and communication technologies in the
implementation and management of the project has greatly automated, simplified,
expedited and made more accurate the gathering of data, reports, calculations and results
The financial management of the project is effective and none noted any irregularities
The APR/PIR process has helped in monitoring and evaluating the project
implementation and achievement of results as it tracks the time of delivery of outputs
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
(d) Strategic partnerships (project positioning and leveraging):




The sub-contracts responded that project partners are strategically and optimally
positioned and effectively leveraged to achieve maximum effect of the sustainable
Transport and Energy Efficiency program objectives for the province.
The project partners, stakeholders and co-financing institutions are involved in some
aspects of the project’s adaptive management framework since they provide us comments
and suggestion during the projects.
There are opportunities for stronger collaboration and substantive partnerships identified
to enhance the project’s achievement of results and outcomes
The project information and progress of activities are disseminated to project partners and
stakeholders
4.0 Recommendations
4.1 Recommendations for next stage
The project activities are implemented according the designed planning, the activities components
are consistent with planning components and the project achievements are integrated. The
research components of this project include the buildings of alpine weather and hydrological
stations, the research of acquisition model of ice and snow, as well as the development of
subsystems of data acquisition in snow remote sensing and image processing, which provide the
foundational support for snow remote sensing monitoring model and snowmelt flood forecast
model and lies a very good foundation for the prevention of flood and disaster in western China.
The achievement in this project is directly beneficial to the people have suffered from the
snowmelt floods in western China. In the future, the successful snowmelt model can be promoted
to the entire Central Asia and is beneficial to the people in other countries through improving the
forecasting level in flood and storm.
4.2 Recommendations for Other UNDP projects
Some organization and management experiences of this project provide well references for other
similar UNDP project, including the establishment of integrated monitoring and management
mechanism through following three aspects and ensures the successful implementation of this
project. (1) scope management: the successful implementation of this project is ensured through
establishing the CCB and completing argumentation and examination in large alter of project
execution to avoid any uncontrollable deviation and scope extension. The committee includes the
chief engineer, expert and project leader. (2) schedule management: during the project planning
phase, designs the planning process and organizes the judgments at the point of planning process
for ensuring the successful implementation of this project and completing the tasks early. (3)
quality management: intends to project work according to the designed objective and potential
output and effectively ensure the quality of the project. In the project implementation, the
monitoring and management mechanism plays an important role and ensures the completion of
this project, where the quality of achievements meets the requirement of project design. Moreover,
in the aspect of the human resource management, all project team members take their respective
roles, including the project chief engineer, evaluation experts, project leader, system design
division, algorithm research division, software research division and system test personnel. The
rational allocation of human resources ensures the successful completion and achievement quality
of this project from the aspects of hardware, software, research and implementation.
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UNDP-People’s Republic of China
5.0
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Best Practices and Lessons Learned
Best practices are meant to document and give recognition to the innovative approaches
undertaken by the project team (UNDP, Project Team, stakeholders, government and private
sectors) to overcome difficulties in order to accomplish the tasks in a cost-effective manner
resulting in leading-edge and quality outputs. On the other hand, lessons learned are highlighted to
remind the project implementers as well as future project undertakers of potential problems or
difficulties that may be encountered so as to ensure that such problems are adequately addressed
in advance to avoid implementation difficulties in the future. One learns indeed from past
mistakes in order to avoid repeating them again in the future.
5.1 Best Practices
In the aspect of project organization, as main execution unit of project, Aeromatex Incorporation
fully exert its technological advantages in the high-tech enterprises; as the cooperative partner,
Xinjiang Water Resources Bureau is offering the activities of building alpine weather stations
and hydrological monitoring stations and achieves good results, which provide the foundation
in the acquisition of meteorological and hydrological data. Moreover, it provides geographical
situation of research region and data support for software development. The well exchange
and communication mechanism are the important for the project completion.
5.2 Lessons Learned
due to the many aspects of reasons, there is also a distance between the main achievements of
technological level and snowmelt flood forecast. It is possible that build snowmelt flood forecast
model and management mechanism if this project will obtain some further investment.
____________________________________________________________________
Final Evaluation Mission
20
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
6.0 Annex A - List of Exhibitions, Conferences, Workshops
and Seminars
Conference scheme
The annual review
conference 2011
The annual review
conference 2012
Location
China International Center for Economic and
Technical Exchanges 12 floor conference room
Aeromatex Incorporation
Time
01/03/2012
People
11
14/11/2012
15
7.0 Annex B - List of Persons and Their Affiliations
Number
1
Name
Huoping
Ding
Wei Zhao
Education
Doctor
3
Hongqiang
Wang
Doctor
4
5
Yan Ma
Changhong
Fan
Zhengxu
Peng
Gang Chen
Bachelor
Bachelor
Yuyang
Shao
Yachao
Wang
Master
Master
Senior
Engineer
10
Jili Yin
Master
Engineer
11
Shi Liang
Master
Engineer
12
Mingqin
Han
Master
Engineer
13
Chao
Xiong
Master
Engineer
14
Li Liu
Master
Engineer
2
6
7
8
9
Master
Doctor
Master
Title/job
Deputy chief
engineer
Deputy chief
engineer
Professor
Senior
Engineer
Engineer
Engineer
Division
Project leader
division
Project expert
Duty
Project chief engineer
Project expert
Technical consultant
Project office
Project leader
Planning and scheduling
Project leader
Senior
Engineer
Senior
Engineer
Engineer
System design
division
System design
division
System design
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System design
Technical consultant
System design
System
design/
Algorithm research
System design
System design
Algorithm research
Algorithm research
Algorithm research
System
____________________________________________________________________
Final Evaluation Mission
21
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
15
Jianhua
Zhou
Doctor
Senior
Engineer
16
Weili
Zhang
Master
Engineer
17
Tao Gao
Master
Engineer
18
Jinhua Liu
Bachelor
Engineer
19
Zhengmin
Li
Master
Senior
Engineer
20
Ang Li
Master
Senior
Engineer
21
Xiaowei
Liu
Master
Engineer
22
Yang Cui
Master
Senior
Engineer
23
Ruoman
Liu
Bachelor
Engineer
24
Jing Dai
Bachelor
Engineer
Flood Forecasting in Western China
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
development
division
System
examination
division
System
examination
division
System
examination
division
System
System
System
System
System
System
System development
System examination
System examination
System examination
____________________________________________________________________
Final Evaluation Mission
22
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
Flood Forecasting in Western China
8.0 Annex C - List of Documents Reviewed
Evaluation file
Form
Analytical report of acquisition and processing achievements of snow
remote sensing data
Analytical report of acquisition achievements of topography and soil
data
Analytical report of acquisition and processing achievements of
vegetation and land use remote sensing data in project region
Information sheet of project implementation
Project implementation scheme and planning
The minutes of meeting of project review conference in 2011
Summary Report of project research work in 2011
Summary Report of project research work in 2012
Analytical report of achievements
Text
Completion
time
2013-06-01
Text
2013-06-01
Text
2013-06-01
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
2013-06-01
2013-06-01
2013-06-01
2013-06-01
2013-06-01
2013-06-01
____________________________________________________________________
Final Evaluation Mission
23
September 2013
UNDP-People’s Republic of China
9.0
Flood Forecasting in Western China
Annex D - Actual Achievements as of July 2, 2013
Work programme
Overseas study
Acquisition
and
processing
of
topography and soil data
Acquisition and processing of snow
remote sensing data
acquisition
and
processing
of
vegetation and land use
Remote sensing image enhancement
module development
Image automatic registration module
development
Image geometry correction module
development
Image mosaic and color uniform
module development
Snow remote sensing interactive
information extraction and editing
Actual completion
Overseas study
Acquisition
and
processing
of
topography and soil data
Acquisition and processing of snow
remote sensing data
acquisition
and
processing
of
vegetation and land use
Remote sensing image enhancement
module development
Image automatic registration module
development
Image geometry correction module
development
Image mosaic and color uniform
module development
The acquisition subsystem of the snow
remote sensing data
Deviation situation
No
No
Comments
No
Added the data analysis
No
Added the data analysis
Data quality
development
Data quality
development
No
evaluation
module
evaluation
module
Added the data analysis
No
No
No
No
No
Extraction and calculation of snow
cover and snow water, and snow
thematic map
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Final Evaluation Mission
24
September 2013