6 CHAPTER SUPPLEMENT Statistical Process Control DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. The Central Limit Theorem provides the basis for the calculation of required sample size. 2. The ultimate goal of the X and R-charts is to ascertain, by a sampling procedure, that the relevant parameter is kept within specific upper and lower bounds. The X bar chart alone tells us only that the average or variable values are within the appropriate limits. The combination of X and the R-charts allows one to determine that both the average and the deviations are within the limits. 3. X -charts: depict the variation in average value of a variable (weight or diameter, for example) R-charts: depict the average range or deviation of a variable p-charts: depict the average value of an attribute (percent defective, for example) c-charts: depict the number of times an attribute (defect, for example) occurs 4. A process can be out of control because of assignable variation, which can be traced to specific causes. Examples include such factors as: Tool wear A change in raw materials A change in working environment (temperature or humidity, for example) Tired or poorly trained labor 5. Walter Shewhart brought his knowledge of statistics to bear on the problems of statistical sampling and quality control, providing the foundations of statistical quality control as we know it. 6. Natural variations are those variations that are inherent in the process and for which there is no identifiable cause. These variations fall in a natural pattern. Assignable causes are variations beyond those that can be expected to occur because of natural variation. These variations can be traced to a specific cause. 7. Occurrences (items) can fall outside of the expected range of the process and still be in control because we expect that to happen in the tails of the distribution. Also, patterns such as trends, too many points on one side of the mean, or strong fluctuations in readings can cause a process to be out of control. 8. Producer’s risk: the risk of rejecting a good lot Consumer’s risk: the risk of accepting a defective lot 9. Type I error: when one rejects a hypothesis that is in fact true (i.e., conclude that a batch is unacceptable when it is not) Type II error: when one accepts a hypothesis that is in fact false (i.e., conclude that a batch is acceptable when it is not) 10. Cpk is the way we express process capability. It measures the difference between desired and an actual dimension of products made in a process. A Cpk of 1.0 means that the process variation is centered within the desired upper and lower specifications. Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 87 11. 12. A “run of 5” implies that assignable variation is present. The 5 steps used to establish X and R charts are: Collect 20–25 samples of n 4 or n 5 from a stable process. Compute X and R , set limits (usually at 3 sigma). If the current process is not stable, use a desired mean instead of X . Graph the sample means and ranges and see if they fall outside the limits. Look for points or patterns indicating the process is out of control. Collect more samples, and revalidate limits if needed. 13. The desired mean is used when the mean of a process being observed is unknown or out of control. 14. A run test is used to help spot abnormalities in a control chart process. It is used if points are not individually out of control, but form a pattern above or below the nominal line. 15. Managerial issues include: Selecting places in their process that need SPC Deciding which type of control charts best fit Setting rules for workers to follow if certain points or patterns emerge END-OF-SUPPLEMENT PROBLEMS . , z3 S6.1 n 10 , X 75 , 195 195 . F H10 IK 76.85 195 . LCL 75 3F I 7315 H K . UCL 75 3 10 S6.2 n 5 , X 50 , 0.18 , z 3 1.72 F H5 IK 52.30 1.72 LCL 50 3F I 47.70 HK UCL 50 3 5 . , D3 0 S6.3 n 5 . From Table S6.1, A2 0.577 , D4 2115 (a) UCL X A R 50 0.577 4 52.308 X (b) 2 LCLX X A2 R 50 0.577 4 47.692 UCLR D4 R 2.115 4 8.456 LCLR D3 R 0 4 0 S6.4 n 6 . From Table S6.1, A2 0.483 , D4 2.004 , D3 0 UCLX X A2 R 46 0.483 2 46.966 LCLX X A2 R 46 0.483 2 45.034 UCLR D4 R 2.004 2 4.008 LCLR D3 R 0 2 0 88 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management S6.5 n 10 . From Table S6.1, A2 = 0.308, D4 1777 , D3 0.233 . UCLX X A2 R 60 0.308 3 60.924 LCLX X A2 R 60 0.308 3 59.076 UCLR D4 R 1.777 3 5.331 LCLR D3 R 0.223 3 0.669 S6.6 Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 X 3.25 3.10 3.22 3.39 3.07 2.86 3.05 2.65 Hour 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 R 0.71 1.18 1.43 1.26 1.17 0.32 0.53 1.13 X 3.02 2.85 2.83 2.97 3.11 2.83 3.12 2.84 R 0.71 1.33 1.17 0.40 0.85 1.31 1.06 0.50 Hour 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 X 2.86 2.74 3.41 2.89 2.65 3.28 2.94 2.64 R 1.43 1.29 1.61 1.09 1.08 0.46 1.58 0.97 Average X 2.982, Average R = 1.02375, n 4 . From Table S6.1, A2 0.729 , D4 2.282 , D3 0.0 . UCLX X A2 R 2.982 0.729 1.024 3.728 LCLX X A2 R 2.982 0.729 1.024 2.236 UCLR D4 R 2.282 1.024 2.336 LCLR D3 R 0 1.024 0 The smallest sample mean is 2.64, the largest 3.39. Both are well within the control limits. Similarly, the largest sample range is 1.61, also well within the control limits. We can conclude that the process is presently within control. However, the first five values for the mean are above the expected mean; this may be the indication of a problem in the early stages of the process. Control Chart X 4.00 3.50 LCL UCL 3.00 2.50 2.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sample Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 89 Control Chart R 2.50 2.00 1.50 LCL UCL 1.00 0.50 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 R 1.3 1.8 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.8 Sample 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 Sample S6.7 Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X 63.5 63.6 63.7 63.9 63.4 63.0 63.2 63.3 63.7 R 2.0 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.6 Sample 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 X 63.5 63.3 63.2 63.6 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.5 63.6 X 63.8 63.5 63.9 63.2 63.3 64.0 63.4 R 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.5 X 63.49 , R 1.5 , n 4 . From Table S6.1, A2 0.729 , D4 2.282 , D3 0.0 . UCLX X A2 R 63.49 0.729 1.5 64.58 LCLX X A2 R 63.49 0.729 1.5 62.40 UCLR D4 R 2.282 1.5 3.423 LCLR D3 R 0 1.5 0 The process is in control. Control Chart X 65.00 64.00 63.00 LCL UCL 62.00 61.00 60.00 0 90 5 10 15 Sample 20 25 30 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management Control Chart R 4.00 3.00 LCL UCL 2.00 1.00 0.00 0 S6.8 Time 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM 5 10 Box 1 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.7 15 Sample Box 2 10.4 10.2 10.5 9.8 10.1 Box 3 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.3 9.9 20 25 Box 4 10.3 9.8 10.1 10.2 9.9 Average 30 Average 10.10 10.00 10.20 10.00 9.90 10.04 Range 0.60 0.40 0.60 0.60 0.40 0.52 n 4 . From Table S6.1, A2 0.729 , D4 2.282 , D3 0.0 . UCLX X A2 R 10.04 0.729 0.52 10.42 LCLX X A2 R 10.04 0.729 0.52 9.66 UCLR D4 R 2.282 0.52 1187 . LCLR D3 R 0 0.52 0 The smallest sample mean is 9.9, the largest 10.2. Both are well within the control limits. Similarly, the largest sample range is 0.6, also well within the control limits. Hence, we can conclude that the process is presently within control. One step the QC department might take would be to increase the sample size to provide a clearer indication as to both control limits and whether or not the process is in control. S6.9 X 19.90 , R 0.34 , n 4 , A2 0.729 , D4 2.282 UCL 19.90 0.7290.34 2015 . (a) LCL 19.90 0.729 0.34 19.65 UCL 2.282 0.34 0.78 (b) LCL 0 (c) The ranges are ok; the means are not in control. . S6.10 X 10 , R 33 . (a) standard deviation = 1.36, x 136 Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 5 0.61 91 (b) Using x UCL 10 30.61 1183 . LCL 10 3 0.61 817 . Using A2 0.577 UCL 10 3.30.577 1190 . LCL 10 3.30.577 810 . (c) UCL 2115 . 3.3 6.98 (d) LCL 0 3.3 0 Yes, both mean and range charts indicate process is in control. S6.11 RDesired 35 . , XDesired 50 , n 6 UCLX X A2 R 50 0.483 3.5 5169 . LCLX X A2 R 50 0.483 3.5 48.31 UCLR D3 R 2.004 3.5 7.014 LCLR D4 R 0 3.5 0 The smallest sample range is 1, the largest 6. Both are well within the control limits. The smallest average is 47, the largest 57. Both are outside the proper control limits. Therefore, although the range is within limits, the average is outside limits, and apparently increasing. Immediate action is needed to correct the problem and get the average within the control limits again. S6.12 Sample Number Sample Range 1 1.10 2 1.31 3 0.91 4 1.10 5 1.21 6 0.82 7 0.86 8 1.11 9 1.12 10 0.99 11 0.86 12 1.20 Sample Mean 46 45 46 47 48 47 50 49 51 52 50 52 , X 48.583 , n 10 . Use X 47 , R 10 R 1049 . . , n 10 UCLX X A2 R 47 0.308 1 47.308 LCLX X A2 R 47 0.308 1 46.692 UCLR D4 R 1.777 1 1.777 LCLR D3 R 0.223 1 0.223 The smallest sample range is 0.82, the largest 1.31. Both are well within the control limits. Almost all the averages are outside the control limits. Therefore the process is out of control. 92 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management While the range is within limits, the average is outside limits, and apparently increasing. Immediate action is needed to correct the problem and get the average within the control limits again. Control Chart X 54.00 52.00 50.00 LCL UCL 48.00 46.00 44.00 0 2 4 6 8 Sample 10 12 14 Control Chart R 2.00 1.50 LCL UCL 1.00 0.50 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 Sample 10 12 14 0.51 0.505 drill bit (largest) S6.13 0.495 drill bit (smallest) 0.49 0.505 0.49 0.015 , 0.015 0.00017 88 holes within standard 0.495 0.49 0.005 , 0.005 0.00017 29 holes within standard Any one drill bit should produce at least 29 holes that meet tolerance, but no more than 88 holes before being replaced. S6.14 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 93 n = 100 p1 p n 1 p Percent Defective (p) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 S6.15 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp UCLp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.062 0.100 0.132 0.161 0.190 n = 200 p1 p n 1 p LCLp UCLp 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0038 0.0096 0.0160 0.0224 0.0294 0.0364 0.0310 0.0497 0.0663 0.0817 0.0962 0.1104 0.1240 0.1376 0.1506 0.1636 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 Percent Defective (p) 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.014 0.020 0.024 0.027 0.030 0.0070 0.0099 0.0121 0.0139 0.0154 0.0168 0.0180 0.0192 0.0202 0.0212 Control Limits for Percent Defective 0.2 0.15 LCL UCL 0.1 0.05 0.00 0 0.02 S6.16 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n 94 0.04 0.06 Percent defective UCLp 0.015 3 0.015 0.985 0.0313 500 LCLp 0.015 3 0.015 0.985 0.0013 or zero 500 0.08 0.1 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management S6.17 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n S6.18 UCLp 0.035 3 0.035 0.965 0.0597 500 LCLp 0.035 3 0.035 0.965 0.0103 500 0.035 0.965 0.0184 100 UCL p 3 p 0.035 3 0.0184 0.0901 p LCL p 3 p 0.035 3 0.0184 0.0201 0 Increased control limits by more than 50%. No, sample size should not be changed, as quality will be seriously affected. S6.19 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n UCLp 0.011 3 0.011 0.989 0.0209 1000 LCLp 0.011 3 0.011 0.989 0.0011 1000 S6.20 n 200 , p 50 10200 0.025 UCLp p 3 p1 p n LCLp p 3 p1 p n UCLp 0.025 3 0.025 0.975 0.0581 200 LCLp 0.025 3 0.025 0.975 0.0081 or zero 200 The highest percent defective is .04; therefore the process is in control. S6.21 Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number Defective 6 5 6 4 3 4 5 Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control Day 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Number Defective 3 6 3 7 5 4 3 Day 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Number Defective 4 5 6 5 4 3 7 95 p pi N 98 0.0467 21100 p1 p n 0.0467 0.9533 0.0211 100 For a 3 p-chart, the upper control level is given by: UCL p 3 0.0467 3 0.0211 0.11 LCL 0 p Chart 0.20 0.15 LCL UCL 0.10 0.05 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sample The process is in control. S6.22 Average blemishes/table 2000 100 20 . Using a normal approximation to the Poisson distribution: c 20 20 4.472 UCLc c 3 20 3 4.472 33.4 or 33 blemishes LCLc c 3 20 3 4.472 6.6 or 7 blemishes Yes—42 blemishes is considerably above the upper control limit. S6.23 c 6 UCL c 3 c 6 3 6 13.35 LCL c 3 c 6 3 6 135 . or 0 Ten complaints are within the control limits, so this many complaints would not be considered unusual. 8135 . 8.00 L M 3 0 N .04 , O L P M QN O P Q 8.00 7.865 0135 . 0135 . . . . Therefore Cpk 1125 or 1125 . , 1125 . 3 0.04 012 . 012 . The process is centered and will produce within the specified tolerance. S6.24 Cpk min of 96 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management S6.25 Cpk min of 41 . 4 L M 3 N01. , 4 3.9 3 01 . 01 . O or L 0.33, P M N 0 . Q 3 O P Q 01 . 0.33 . Therefore Cpk 0.33 . The process will 0.3 not produce within the specified tolerance. S6.26 Cpk min of S6.27 16.5 16 16 15.5 O L 0.5 0.5 L M M3 , 3 O P. Therefore C Q N31 , 31 P Qor N Time 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM Box 1 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.7 Box 2 10.4 10.2 10.5 9.8 10.1 Box 3 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.3 9.9 pk 0.166 . Box 4 Average 10.3 10.1 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.9 Average = 10.04 Std. Dev. = 0.11 101 . 10 10 9.9 0.3 and 0.3 3 011 3 011 . . As 0.3 is less than 1, the process will not produce within the specified tolerance. This makes for an interesting discussion of the control chart for problem S6.8. S6.28 X 61.13136 49.776 38.42064 Upper Control Limit Center Line (ave) Lower Control Limit Hour 26 27 28 29 30 (a) (b) 1 48 45 63 47 45 2 52 53 49 70 38 Range 41.6232 19.68 0.00 Recent Data Sample 3 4 39 57 48 46 50 45 45 52 46 54 5 61 66 53 61 52 X 51.4 51.6 52.0 57.0 47.0 R 22 21 18 25 16 Yes, the process appears to be under control. Samples 26–30 stayed within the boundaries of the upper and lower control limits for both X and R charts. The observed lifetimes have a mean of approximately 50 hours, which supports the claim made by Ward Battery Corp. However, the variance from the mean needs to be controlled and reduced. Lifetimes should deviate from the mean by no more than 5 hours (10% of the variance). CASE STUDIES BAYFIELD MUD COMPANY 1. The first thing that must be done is to develop quality control limits for the sample means. This can be done as follows. Because the process appears to be unstable, we can use the desired mean as the Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 97 nominal line. Desired x 50.0 , s 1.2 (from past results of Wet-Land s n 12 . 6 12 . 2.45 0.489 . At a 99.73% confidence interval Z 3 : Drilling), UCLX X 3 50 3 0.489 50 1.467 51.47 LCLX X 3 50 1.47 48.53 Now that we have appropriate control limits, these must be applied to the samples taken on the individual shifts: Time 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 1:00 Ave 49.6 50.2 50.6 50.8 49.9 50.3 48.6 49.0 Low 48.7 49.1 49.6 50.2 49.2 48.6 46.2 46.4 High 50.7 51.2 51.4 51.8 52.3 51.7 50.4 50.0 Day Shift* Ave Low 48.6 47.4 50.0 49.2 49.8 49.0 50.3 49.4 50.2 49.6 50.0 49.0 50.0 48.8 50.1 49.4 Time 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 Ave 49.0 49.8 50.3 51.4 51.6 51.8 51.0 50.5 Low 46.0 48.2 49.2 50.0 49.2 50.0 48.6 49.4 High 50.6 50.8 52.7 55.3 54.7 55.6 53.2 52.4 Evening Shift Ave Low 49.7 48.6 47.2 48.4 45.3 47.2 44.1 46.8 41.0 46.8 50.0 46.2 44.0 47.4 44.2 47.0 High 51.0 51.7 50.9 49.0 51.2 51.7 48.7 48.9 Ave 49.8 49.8 50.0 47.8 46.4 46.5 47.2 48.4 Low 48.4 48.8 49.1 45.2 44.0 44.4 46.6 47.2 High 51.0 50.8 50.6 51.2 49.7 50.0 48.9 49.5 Time 10:00 11:00 12:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 Ave 49.2 49.0 48.4 47.6 47.4 48.2 48.0 48.4 Low 46.1 46.3 45.4 44.3 44.1 45.2 45.5 47.1 High 50.7 50.8 50.2 49.7 49.6 49.0 49.1 49.6 Night Shift Ave Low 46.6 47.2 48.6 47.0 49.8 48.2 49.6 48.4 50.0 49.0 50.0 49.2 46.3 47.2 44.1 47.0 High 50.2 50.0 50.4 51.7 52.2 50.0 50.5 49.7 Ave 49.2 48.4 47.2 47.4 48.8 49.6 51.0 50.5 Low 48.1 47.0 46.4 46.8 47.2 49.0 50.5 50.0 High 50.7 50.8 49.2 49.0 51.4 50.6 51.5 51.9 * (a) High 52.0 52.2 52.4 51.7 51.8 52.3 52.4 53.6 Ave 48.4 48.8 49.6 50.0 51.0 50.4 50.0 48.9 Low 45.0 44.8 48.0 48.1 48.1 49.5 48.7 47.6 High 49.0 49.7 51.8 52.7 55.2 54.1 50.9 51.2 Bold-faced type indicates a sample outside the quality control limits. Day shift (6:00 AM–2:00 PM): Number of means within control limits 23 96% Total number of means 24 (b) Evening shift (2:00 PM–10:00 PM): Number of means within control limits 12 50% Total number of means 24 98 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management (c) Night shift (10:00 PM–6:00 AM): Number of means within control limits 12 50% Total number of means 24 As is now evident, none of the shifts meet the control specifications. Bag weight monitoring needs improvement on all shifts. The problem is much more acute on the evening and night shifts staffed by the more recent hires. Note also, that the number of samples indicating a “short weight” is much greater than the number indicating excess weight. With regard to the range, 99.73% of the individual bag weights should lie within 3 of the mean. This would represent a range of 6 , or 7.2. Only one of the ranges defined by the difference between the highest and lowest bag weights in each sample exceeds this range. It would appear, then, that the problem is not due to abnormal deviations between the highest and lowest bag weights, but rather to poor adjustments of the bag weight-feeder causing assignable variations in average bag weights. The proper procedure is to establish mean and range charts to guide the bag packers. The foreman would then be alerted when sample weights deviate from mean and range control limits. The immediate problem, however, must be corrected by additional bag weight monitoring and weight-feeder adjustments. Short-run declines in bag output may be necessary to achieve acceptable bag weights. Bayfield Case: Control Chart- X 54.0 LCL UCL 52.0 50.0 48.0 Day Eve Night 46.0 44.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Sample 15 17 19 21 23 SPC AT THE GAZETTE 1. The overall fraction of errors (p) and the control limits are developed as follows: p s Total number of errors 120 0.04 Number of samples Sample size 30 100 p1 p n 0.04 0.96 0.0196 100 Then the control limits are given (for a 95% confidence interval; 95% = 1.96) by: UCL p 196 . s 0.04 196 . 0.0196 0.0784 LCL p 196 . s 0.04 196 . 0.0196 0.0016 Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 99 Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Errors in Sample 2 4 10 4 1 1 13 9 11 0 3 4 2 2 8 Fraction of Errors (n/100)* 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.13** 0.09 0.11** 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.08 Errors in Sample 2 3 7 3 2 3 7 4 3 2 2 0 1 3 4 Sample 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Fraction of Errors (n/100) 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.04 * Bold-faced entries indicate sample fractions outside the quality control limits. ** Indicates sample fractions outside the industry standard quality control limits. Both the table presented above, and the control chart indicate that the quality requirements of the Gazette are more stringent than those of the industry as a whole. In five instances, the fraction of errors exceeds the firm’s upper control limit; in two cases, the industry’s upper control limit is exceeded. An investigation, leading to corrective action, is clearly warranted. p Chart 0.14 0.12 0.10 UCL 0.08 0.06 0.04 LCL 0.02 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 Sample Firm LCL Firm UCL 25 30 Ind LCL Ind UCL INTERNET CASE STUDY GREEN RIVER CHEMICAL CO. This is a very straightforward case. Running software to analyze the data will generate the X -chart as UCLX : 6113 . Nominal: 49.78 LCLX : 38.42 100 Instructor’s Solutions Manual t/a Operations Management and the range chart as UCLR : 41.62 Nominal: 19.68 LCLR : 0.00 Next, students need to take the means and ranges for the five additional samples. Date April 6 7 8 9 10 Mean 52 57 47 51.4 51.6 Range 14 25 16 22 21 The mean and the ranges are all well within the control limits for this week. There is, however, a noticeable change in the original data at time 13, where the range suddenly dropped. It then goes back up at time 16. The data were generated by students in class, and changes in the process were made at the aforementioned times. The control chart identifies that these changes took place. Chapter 6 Supplement: Statistical Process Control 101