WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE COUNCIL PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS, RESEARCH AND SERVICES Fourth session EC-PORS-4/INF.13 Submitted by : Juhani Damski, Kari Luojus and Jouini Pulliainen . Date: 21.II.2013 Lanzhou, China, 13-15 March 2013 AGENDA ITEM: 3.4 REVIEW OF EC-PORS ACTIVITY SINCE EC-PORS-3: SERVICES EMERGING CRYOSPHERIC SERVICES SUMMARY ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED: emerging cryospheric services. For information. This document provides information about DECISIONS/ACTIONS: Discussions on possibilities to incorporate emerging cryosphere services as described in this document in to the PORS framework. EC-PORS-IV/INF.13, p. 2 1. EMERGING CRYOSPHERIC SERVICES 1.1 Hemispherical scale monitoring of cryosphere has been carried out using satellite data for several decades. Operational monitoring of snow cover has been mainly restricted to observations of snow cover extent using optical satellite data. Optical methods provide information solely on spatial extent, lacking information on crucial parameters such as snow depth (SD), snow water equivalent (SWE) and total water content of the snow pack, all crucial variables for many operational end-users. A new methodology, combining satellitebased coarse resolution passive microwave radiometer data and ground-based synopobservations has allowed the operational near-real time monitoring of snow depth and snow water equivalent on hemispherical scale in recent years. 1.2 A methodology developed at Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) combines a forward emission model for snow covered ground in Bayesian assimilation scheme to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of snow water equivalent and snow depth utilizing satellite-based data in conjunction with ground-based Synoptic observations. The methodology has been in operational use for several years providing daily near-real time (NRT) maps of SD and SWE for the land areas of Northern Hemisphere (NH). 1.3 The potential end-users of the snow (SWE & SD) maps include numerical weather prediction (NWP), hydrological forecasting including flood forecasting and water storage optimization for hydro-power applications, avalanche warning centers, climate monitoring institutes, environmental agencies, energy traders and road and railway authorities. 1.4 There are several operational users for the NH SWE maps. A key national user is the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), where the SWE data is used as an input for hydrological forecasting system providing nation-wide information of current and future water resources for flood monitoring and river runoff forecasting. The information from SYKE is operationally utilized by Finnish hydropower companies in hydropower optimization and flood prevention. 1.5 Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission operates the “European Drought Observatory” (EDO) that produces European wide drought-relevant information such as maps of indicators derived from different data sources (e.g., precipitation measurements, satellite measurements, modelled soil moisture content). FMI produces a standardized snow pack indicator (SSPI) product for the EDO that is based on the recently developed SWE mapping methodology. The SSPI is calculated as an anomaly of current SWE conditions when compared with long-term historical SWE conditions. An example map of the SSPI indicator is shown in Figure 1. 1.6 There are on-going studies for utilization of the FMI produced SWE maps for numerical weather prediction by the FMI and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Environment Canada (EC) is investigating the utilization of the SWE maps for their operational daily CMC snow depth analysis system, which estimates terrestrial snow conditions for Northern Hemisphere used as an input for NWP at EC. EC-PORS-IV/INF.13, p. 3 1.7 There is a joint European Commission -funded project including FMI and Icelandic Meteorological Institute to utilize the SWE maps in avalanche forecasting activities within Nordic countries. 1.8 In addition to the near-real time processing of SWE maps, a daily time-series of Northern Hemisphere SWE has been produced spanning more than 30-years within the European Space Agency (ESA) Data User Element (DUE) GlobSnow project. The GlobSnow SWE data record is based on the time-series of measurements by two different space-borne passive radiometers (SMMR and SSM/I) combined with ground-based weather station observations. The time series spans from 1980 to present day at a spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. 1.9 The GlobSnow long-term snow water equivalent data record can be used to reconstruct the snow conditions for the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region also called as the third pole for the past 30 years. This reconstruction, along with a near-real time production of SWE maps for the region, could be utilized to derive an estimate of anomalies/differences on observed every-day snow conditions when compared with conditions people are used to in the past. 1.10 As the GlobSnow data-series is based on coarse resolution passive microwave radiometer observations, its accuracy is limited for mountainous domains, such as the Third pole region. However, on a larger scale, it is indicative of the changes observed within the region. 2. Demonstration of drought/snow pack indicator for the third pole region A demonstration service of drought indicator calculation for a sub-domain of the Third pole region in collaboration with interested partners within the region can be provided. Such a demonstration project should include the following work: A calculation of the snow pack indicator product in NRT for a given selected region A partner/user evaluation of the snow pack indicator product, based on the hemispherical SWE mapping, providing feedback and quality assessment of the product If feasible, inclusion of additional ground-based weather station data for inclusion on the SWE processing chain, and An assessment of the performance improvement due to increased number of groundbased snow depth data. EC-PORS-IV/INF.13, p. 4 3. FIGURES Figure 1. Example of the SSPI product for European domain for the winter 2005-2006. The example is shown with on a monthly basis, calculation is possible on a daily to a weekly and monthly interval.