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Trung Huynh
Prof. Whalen
Econ 128: Term Paper
03 Dec. 2004
Longest Economic Expansion
In the years between March 1991 and March 2001, the United States experienced
the longest economic expansion in history. With innovations in technology and
weakened trade barriers, the U.S. saw its economy grow by 4 ½ percent per year. The
unemployment rate fell to 4 percent, the lowest since 1969. 20 million additional jobs
were created since January 1993. Budget surpluses increased to $124 billion in
2000 and inflation decreased to the lowest since 1965. Strong corporate profits helped
boost the stock market to levels never seen before, creating substantial wealth for
Americans. The United States continued to have the highest income per capita and the
fastest income growth. Overall, the prolific economy was a result of low inflation and
unemployment, and high investment and productivity.
The economy in the early 90s started off slowly because of Iraq’s invasion of
Kuwait and higher debt loads by households and businesses (Kelly). Although the
federal funds rate was reduced to 3 percent in 1992 in an attempt to stimulate the
economy, long-term rates remained high. Additionally, the national deficit was set to hit
the $300 billion mark. To improve the economy, the new Clinton administration
implemented fiscal and monetary policies. The 10-year treasury rate, for instance, was
decreased from 7 percent in 1992 to 5.3 percent in 1993. As interest rates lowered,
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investments increased since financing became cheaper. As a result, companies began to
invest in R&D paving the way for the technology boom that drastically altered the
economic landscape.
There are many factors that led to the tremendous expansion in the latter part of
the 1990s. Probably the most influential factor was the surge in information technology.
Like the industrial revolution, the technology boom of the late 1990s transformed the way
industries operated. New technologies in computer hardware, networking, and software
made companies more efficient by improving the ways goods were produced and
delivered. New production methods were implemented, inventory management was
improved, supply-chain relationships were streamlined, and relationships with customers
were enhanced. The improved efficiency in manufacturing and distribution resulted in
improved efficiency, is reflected in productivity growth measurements. Productivity
grew at an average 4.2 percent per year between 1993 and 1999 (Economic report of
President 1999) compared to 1.4 percent for the previous 20 years in the business sector.
The manufacturing sector experienced productivity growth of 9.3 percent (Roubini).
Because of the increase in productivity, unit labor costs decreased to -0.3 percent in the
90s compared to 2.5 percent in the ‘80s.
As technology became more advanced, prices for technological related goods and
services fell with respect to quality. For instance, computers today are far more advanced
than ones from a few years ago, but their prices have remained the same. Consumers
understood the relationship between quality and price; household ownership of computers
increased from 15 percent to 35 percent between 1990 and 1997 (BLS). Additionally,
companies invested heavily in equipment and software because of the low costs. Since
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the demand for technology related goods and services increased, a chain reaction
throughout the whole economy commenced. Accounting for almost one-third of GDP
between 1995 and 1999, information technology was clearly the leading factor in the
economic expansion.
Since companies became more efficient and prices of technology related goods
decreased because of technology advancements, the demand for new technology
companies intensified. Venture capitalists and other investors expected the technology
sector to remain lucrative for years to come and saw the opportunity to reap monetary
rewards to fulfill the demand for technology. Therefore, they invested heavily into the
information technology sector. In 1991, $3.4 billion in venture capital was invested. By
1996, $10.0 billion was invested (U.S. Small Business Administration). Investments
grew 13 percent per year between the first quarter of 1993 and the third quarter of 2002
(Presidential report). With financial backing from investors, the number of information
technology firms doubled between 1990 and 1997.
As the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0 percent and the stock market increased
due to the expanding technology industry, enough wealth was generated to affect
consumption noticeably. Accounting for almost 70 percent of GDP, consumer
expenditures reached $5.2 trillion (1992 dollars) while inflation-adjusted GDP was only
$2.3 trillion higher at $7.5 trillion. The 3.9 percent growth in the economy in 1998 was
fueled mostly by consumer spending. Increases in consumption were driven by low
inflation rates, increases in disposable income, decreases in the unemployment rate, the
rise in the stock market, and expected future income. The CPI, a measurement of
inflation averaged 2.9 percent in the 90s, compared to 5.1 percent in the 1980s, while the
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average unemployment rate was 5.8 percent for the same time period. Due to the
technology bias, the CPI was actually lower than the measured average of 2.9. The
average unemployment rate is arguably high by today’s standards, but is low compared to
the average unemployment rate of 7.3 percent in the 1980s (Institute of Government and
Public Affairs). Although a low unemployment rate could have pushed productivity
down due to more unskilled people in the workforce, that was not the case in the ‘90s as
seen with the increased productivity growth. Students were hired almost instantly upon
graduation.
The increase in wealth had an adverse affect on the savings rate as would be
expected. The stock market reacted favorably to the boom in investments. The NYSE
Index grew by 9.5 percent in the 90s and the NASDAQ by 20.9% compared to 6.3 and
5.8 percent in the 80s, respectively (Institute of Government and Public Affarirs).
The stock market raised consumption by 1 1/3 percent per year from 1994 to early 2000.
Although consumers spent only 3 ½ cents per year for every $1 earned in the stock
market, the savings rate fell below 0 percent on many occasions while consumer debt
increased to $1.3 trillion in 1998. Consumers purchased durable goods such as
automobiles resulting in increases of 12 percent on big-ticket items (University of
Alabama). Additionally, homeownership rates increased significantly in the 90’s
reaching a historic high of 67.5 percent in 2001 (Housing America). The rise in
consumption and homeownership was attributed to the increase in wealth, low interest
rates, and reductions of the capital gains tax from 28% to 20% in 1997. Low interest
rates made it cheaper for consumers to borrow money for homes and other goods. As
mentioned, consumers dipped into their savings because they were confident that the
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economy would remain at its current level and that future income would be available.
Those who owned stock felt wealthier. Therefore, consumption increased, which in turn
stimulated firms to raise output, thus increased GDP and lowering unemployment.
Another reason for the strong economic growth during the 90s was the reduction
in government spending resulting in a budget surplus of $236 billion or 2.4 of GDP in
2000 (Economic Report of the President 2000). Government expenditures and
investments grew slower than GDP since the world was at relative peace. According to
the House Policy Committee, annual military spending declined in actual dollars by $61.8
billion since the end of the Gulf War to the early part of 2001. The reduction in the
capital gains tax in 1997 caused a 53 percent increase in capital gains revenue. The
increase in revenue reduced the amount of borrowed funds and their associated interest
payments. Therefore, interest rates on national debt decreased accordingly. 1999 was the
first year since 1961 that the cost of interest declined; interest as a share of total expenses
decreased by 6%, representing a savings of $10 billion. The reduction in government
expenditures and increases in revenue resulted in the largest budget surplus ever in
American History, $124 billion by 2001.
The Telecommunications Act of 1996 and Y2K spending further strengthened the
economy. The telecommunications industry was deregulated in 1996 to benefit
consumers with lower prices and better service through competition. Y2K-related
investments played a role by increasing the growth rate of real equipment and software
investment by more than 3 ½ percentage points per year in the late 90s (Economic Report
of the President, 2004).
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Exports were the fastest-growing segment of the economy from 1990 to 1997.
Capital goods such as computers, machinery, and telecommunications equipment
accounted for nearly 70 of the growth in exports and 30 percent of imports according to
the Economic Report of the President. Despite the rise in exports, the rise in imports
continued to result in a higher trade deficit as rapid growth in investment, income, and
wealth caused higher demands for imported goods and services. The trade deficit was
around $270 million in 2000.
The economy during the 1990s and early 2000 was the most robust the country
has ever seen. A combination of monetary/fiscal policy and advancements in technology
led to lower unemployment rates. Armed with first time income or raises in income,
consumers increased expenditures resulting in more capital being put back into
businesses. The cycle from increased consumer consumption to increased corporate
profits continued throughout the 90s creating substantial wealth for many Americans.
However, over speculation of the stock market and the changing global environment put
a halt to the longest expansion in history.
The Last Recession (March 2001 to November 2001)
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared March 2001 to be
the beginning of the latest recession. After the longest expansion in history, the economy
began to take a nose dive. There are several factors that contributed to the slowdown of
the economy. First, the stock market began to weaken due to over speculation. Investors
and households continued to have high expectations for the economy resulting in overvalued stocks in large amounts of debt. Corporate profits reached their peak in 2000 and
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began declining. The Manufacturing industry saw rates of return for the second quarter
slip to 4.5 percent, the lowest since 1992, while the services sector dropped to an eightyear low of 12.4 percent (Tutur2u.com). The drops in rate of returns were attributed to a
decline in business investment in equipment/software and exports. Equity in businesses
fell from $17.5 trillion to under $13 trillion in the third quarter of 2001. The stock
market reflected the decrease. The NASDAQ index fell 67 percent from its peak in
March 2000.
Since stock prices fell due to decreases in corporate profits, household wealth was
reduced. Consumption fell from $180 billion to $135 billion. Production decreased to
match the fall in consumption. Industry capacity utilization, the ratio of actual
production to capacity, sank to 75 percent by the end of 2001, compared to the long-term
average of 82 percent (Lin and Schmidt). Since future income and wealth became
unstable, consumer confidence fell dramatically. The Conference Board calculated the
index at 85.5 in October 2001, the lowest since February 1994 (CNN).
Any change in a segment in the economy will directly affect the entire economy.
The decrease in consumer confidence, stock market wealth, and production utilization,
caused a rise in the unemployment rate. The unemployment increased from 4.2 percent
in January 2001 to 5.4 percent in September 2001. 415,000 jobs were cut, the largest
since May of 1980. Since consumption accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, the rise
in the unemployment rate was a significant setback.
The September 11 terrorist attacks and the war on terrorism reinforced the
recession. A drop in consumer confidence from 114.0 in August to 97.6 in September
caused retail sales and orders for durable goods to drop by $17.6 billion; claims for
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unemployment insurance rose by 50,000 in September (Wesbury). Stock markets closed
for 4 days. Major airlines were grounded and flights were cut by 30 percent when flights
resumed. Hotels became vacant. Overall, 408 major layoffs were attributed to the
attacks, with 70 percent of them coming from the air transportation and travel industries
according to the BLS. Increased security at border crossings decreased the flow of goods
into the U.S. by $9.2 billion in September.
The decline in the world economy also contributed to the recession in the U.S.
and vice versa. The gross world product (GWP) of the world economy increased by only
1.3 percent, compared to 4 percent in 2000 (U.N. Economic and Social Council). In
addition to a rise in oil prices, the world economy suffered from previous monetary
tightening. As a result, U.S. exports decreased causing a ripple effect throughout all
sectors of the U.S., especially in manufacturing as previously mentioned.
To counteract the declining economy, the Federal Reserve eased restrictions on
the money supply by lowering the federal funds rate to 2 percent from 2.5 percent in
November 2001, the tenth cut in the year (CNN Money). Normally, cuts in the funds rate
would trigger a higher inflation rate. However, inflation hovered only around 2 ¾
percent in 2001. The President also signed the Economic Growth and Taxpayer Relief
Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA), which gave the typical family with two children
$1,600 in tax relief (whitehouse.gov). The relaxed fiscal policies were instituted to
induce spending on both the business and consumer sides.
Although the economy was in recession, GDP only registered a total drop of 0.6
percent compared to a lost of 1.5 percent during the 1990-91 recession according to the
Washington State Office of Financial Management. Factors of the “shallow” recession
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include relatively healthy consumer spending, a strong housing market, low interest rates
and inflation, and sustained productivity growth. Consumer spending averaged a 3.8
percent annual growth in late 2001 compared to an annual rate of 4.0 percent two years
prior. Although the September 11 terrorist attacks basically shut down the economy
temporarily, they were the likely sources for the strength in consumer expenditures.
Americans went out and spent simply because they did not want to let the terrorists “win”
by disrupting the economy. Automobiles manufacturers and dealers initiated special
incentives and discounts, which resulted in a near-record pace of 21.1 million
automobiles (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in October 2001 (Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis). Automobile sales contributed 1.88 percentage points to fourth-quarter Real
GDP, the largest since the first quarter of 1971 at 3.66 percentage points. Retail sales
rebounded by 1.2 percent in October from September.
Additionally, the low interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve kept the
housing market afloat. Low Mortgage rates helped raise the National Association of
Home Builder’s Housing Market Index (HMI) by 8 points to 57 in December, the largest
monthly increase since 1998. Along with low mortgage rates, low returns from interestbearing investments and a trend in housing price appreciation caused the housing market
to remain strong during the recession. As a result of the increase of automobile sales and
the stable housing market, consumer confidence jolted from to 93.7 in December 2001,
the first since June of that year (Missouri Economic Research and Information Center).
Productivity growth remained healthy despite a mild decrease in consumption
when compared with the late 90s. Productivity grew at 4 percent per year since the
fourth quarter of 2000. The most likely causes for the sustained productivity growth
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were decreases in capital investments and fear of unemployment due to shrinking profits.
Firms had to utilize existing equipment and resources to their fullest since funds did not
flow back into the firms like they used to (Economic Report of the President, 2004).
Workers were retrained to maximize current resources. Furthermore, the rise in the
unemployment rate most likely caused employees to work harder.
The Economy since the recovery
The economy after the recession grew at an ordinary pace. Real GDP rose at an
annual average rate of 3.4 percent in 2002. There are several factors that slowed down
the growth and also several that sustained it. Improper financial reporting by
corporations such as Enron and WorldCom along with the uncertainty of the war in Iraq
were only few of the factors that slowed down the growth. Consumer expenditures,
however, played a large role in keeping the economy growing at a decent rate.
Consumer Expenditures remained strong after the recession, rising 2.9 percent in
2002, following increases of 3.9 percent in 2001 and 2.8 percent in 2000 (BLS).
Consumer spending was mostly fueled by the continuation of aggressive incentives and
promotions offered by automobile dealers. Automobiles were selling at an annual rate of
18 million in July and August. Low inflation and tax relief also induced consumer
spending. The CPI rose only 2.4 percent in 2002. $78 billion reduced tax liabilities as a
result of the EGTRRA act of 2001 helped raise the nominal income net of taxes at an
annual rate of 9.0 percent. Additionally, nominal personal income rose at an annual rate
of 4.5 percent during the first three quarters of 2002 (Economic Report of the President
2003 28). Although the consumer confidence index sank to 80.3 in December 2002 from
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November 2002, consumers kept spending because of low inflation and growths in
nominal disposable personal income and the still-lucrative housing market (CBS News).
Residential investment continued to create wealth for households through rising
housing prices. Housing prices increased to 6.2 percent from the third quarter of 2001 to
the third quarter of 2002. Low mortgage rates combined with rising demand drove the
housing market. Rates conventional, fixed-rate 30-year loans fell to 5.93 percent by the
end of 2002, lowest since 1965. Rising demand came more immigrants entering the
country and from baby-boomers wanting to purchase second homes since they were at
the peak earning age.
The stock market never fully recovered from the recession, however. According
to the Economic Report of the President, stock holders lost nearly $7 trillion in equity
wealth from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2002. The declining stock
market was influenced by low investor expectations and an increase in the premium that
investors required to hold risky assets. Still shaken from the technology bust, investors
had low expectations. Their pessimistic attitude toward the markets was legit. Corporate
profits fell five straight quarters. On top of falling profits, corporations were under attack
by the government and investors for purposely exaggerating earnings.
The current status of the economy
Although the third quarter of 2004 saw the economy grow at an annual rate of 3.7
percent rather than the expected rate of 4.3, the economy continues to be gradually
improving since second quarter saw a rate of 3.3 percent (Forbes). Stronger consumer
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spending, more robust business investment in equipment/software, residential fixed
investment, and government spending were the main causes of the improvement.
Personal consumption expenditures had a direct impact on the increase in GDP
rising 5.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the
second. Low interest rates and growth in income caused improvements in the demand for
durables, which translated into a higher GDP measurement. Auto sales rose 3 percent to
13.5 million units from October’s four month low of 13.1 million (Briefing). A growth in
income by 0.6% also had a positive influence on the increase in consumer spending.
Although spending has increased the quickest since the end of 2001, consumer
confidence decreased for the fourth straight month from 92.9 in October to 92.9 in
November (The Conference Board). The mediocre growth in the job market and the
higher energy costs were to blame for the lowered consumer confidence. Consumers
saying jobs were “plentiful” decreased to 16.8 percent from 17.4 percent. The
unemployment rate stood at 5.5 in October, unchanged from September. Prices for oil
have increased 30 percent this year due to the weaker U.S dollar and speculation. The
dollar dropped 10 percent against other currencies, raising the dollar price of oil by 7.5
percent. Furthermore, world demand has grown at its fastest pace in 16 years (WSJ).
China, for instance, has increased its oil imports by 20% from a year ago. The demand
for oil is projected to rise to 82.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter from 79
million in the second quarter. Rising oil prices are one of the reasons for the increase in
consumer spending. Nondurable spending jumped 1.5%, reflecting the higher prices of
gasoline. The lowered savings rate of 0.2 percent in October from 0.3 percent in
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October, which factored into the consumer confidence decline, was most likely was
caused by the rising oil prices.
Another reason for the GDP improvement is because of the increased business
investments on equipment and software. Business investments increased to 17.2 percent
in the third quarter, compared to 14.2 percent in the second quarter. The causes for the
higher investments stemmed mostly from repairing damages from the hurricanes in
Florida. If the hurricanes would have not hit Florida, then there would have probably
been a reduction in business investments since domestic corporate profits decreased
$36.5 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $28.3 billion in the second
according to the BEA. The hurricanes may have also caused capacity utilization to rise
since it rose 0.4 percent, to 77.7 percent (Federal Reserve).
Now that the economy is recovering, the Federal Reserve has begun increasing
interest rates. A key short-term interest rate was recently increased by one-quarter
percentage point, the fourth increase of the year. Rates have been bumped up since rising
oil prices have removed fears about deflation. Additionally, interest rates have been
bumped up to combat the high energy and commodity prices. Slow productivity growth
and the weaker dollar are also contributing to the hikes in interest rates. Productivity
growth went from 4.9 percent in the 12 months through June, but decreased to 3.1 in the
12 months ended in September according to The Wall Street Journal. The rise in the
“core” CPI was also cause for the higher interest rates. Excluding volatile food and
energy, the CPI went from 0.2 percent in October to .03% in September, bringing the
annual increase to 2 percent from 1.7 percent. Most likely, the decrease in productivity
growth caused prices to push upwards since wage and benefit cost per unit rose 0.6%.
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The war in Iraq is causing mixed reactions to the economy. The decrease in
consumer confidence can be attributed to the uncertainty of the war. However, federal
government spending on national defense is contributing to the improvement in the
economy. Spending on national defense increased 9.8 percent in the third quarter,
compared to 4.4 percent in the second quarter. Government spending has also had a
negative effect on the economy. The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2004 is
estimated to be over $400 billion. With such a high deficit, tax-cuts to fuel consumption
may not happen in 2005.
Economic Forecast for 2005
The economy should continue to see a slow, but steady improvement in 2005.
Personal consumption and business investments will remain growing at a gradual pace as
seen in 2004. The budget deficit, however, will be the main reason for the sluggish
growth.
Personal consumption held up well during the recession and recovery. There
should be no reason for it to stop expanding at its current pace. Although oil prices will
continue to rise because of supply and demand pressures, spending will not be
dramatically affected since the recent oil price spikes did not seem to harm consumer
spending as can be seen in the past few months. Real disposable income should continue
to increase slowly in the first half of 2005 as trend patterns predict. There may be spikes
in real disposable income if there is a tax cut, which is unlikely since the economy seems
to be doing fairly well on its own at the present.
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Sales of durables may decrease slightly for 2005. Purchases of big-ticket items
will decline somewhat since consumers are still expecting job opportunities to be
mediocre at best; the unemployment rate has remained essentially unchanged as will be
mentioned below. Some may argue that rising gas prices could contribute to more gas
efficient automobile sales, but that seems unlikely since discounts and promotions have
remained available for quite some time now. Consumers would have already purchased
automobiles by now due to the introduction of 2005 models putting downward price
pressures on older models. The sluggish start to the holiday season further demonstrates
that consumers will spend conservatively on big-ticket items. Sales of non-durable goods
should remain at a healthy level since most of them are necessities.
Increases in wealth from the continuation of the housing market will keep
consumption afloat. Having recently been granted permission from federal regulators to
purchase larger individual mortgages in 2005, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may create
lower borrowing costs on homes, resulting in higher home sales for 2005 (USA Today).
The savings rate, at a record low of 0.9 percent in October, should continue to remain
extremely week due to the expected rise in home investments and remodeling. Housing
starts will likely increase due to low 30-year fixed mortgage rates and demand for second
homes. However, mortgage rates will increase slightly in 2005 as the Federal Reserve
continues to increase interest rates.
Since the economy is expected to slowly improve, the Federal Reserve will keep
raising interest rates as seen in 2004. Inflation may be a threat to the economy in 2005.
With the projected growth in productivity, unit labor costs may rise. Additionally, the
steady decline in the value of the dollar will continue to exist as it has for nearly three
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years. The Federal Reserve will keep a close eye on inflation and continue to increase
interest rates if it becomes a larger threat. Overall, the Federal Reserve will take a neutral
stance on the percentage point increases in the interest rates since low targets will
increase the inflation rate while a high target will reduce economic activity, which could
be a blow to the extremely important housing market.
Business investments will play an important role in keeping the economy growing
at the rate seen in 2004. Outdated equipment from the ‘90s will most likely need to be
replaced as the 10-year mark since the economy went into rapid growth is about to be
reached. However, new equipment/software may be significantly improved efficiency
wise, raising productivity growth to a level where additional employees may not be
needed. Moreover, corporate profits will be subdued by the increase in investment and
therefore, lowering the possibility for new employment.
Jobs will continue to remain somewhat difficult to find since the unemployment
rate should hover around 5.5, as it has been around the past few quarter. There does not
seem to be any factors that will affect the employment from rising at a noticeable amount.
However, the economy is not strong enough to sustain its current unemployment rate. It
is projected that jobs in November will only show a net gain of about 112,000, which is
substantially lower than the 303,000 jobs created in October. The increase in business
investments may spur employment temporarily since new equipment/software will need
to be installed. As mentioned, however, the increased investments may also hamper
employment since companies will not have additional funding.
Government spending is projected to be reduced slightly in 2005. Although
military operations will continue in Iraq for years to come, defense spending will fall
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since the defense supplemental appropriations have been signed. Furthermore, the high
budget deficit of $412.55 in fiscal year 2004 will cause the government to cut spending
since the economy will continue to be too fragile for tax increases. The government at
the state and local levels are projected to reduce spending as health care costs have been
rising at a double-digit rate. The number of uninsured Americans has risen from 40
million to 45 million from 2002 and 2003, respectively. This number will only increase
in 2005 as the unemployment rate will remain relatively high and businesses are forced to
pay higher annual premiums for employer-sponsored health coverage according to
Kaiser.
Imports and exports will see fairly strong growth in 2005. Imports will
continue to increase, but at a slower rate due to the decline in the dollar’s value. U.S
imports for 2002 and 2003 were 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Now that the
dollar is weaker, exports of U.S. goods and services should be improved in the twelve
months ahead.
The economy is poised to improve in 2005 at a pace comparable to 2004. It is
expected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent. Consumption is estimated to remain the driving
force behind the improvement. While consumers expect the job market to remain
relatively weak, they will continue to spend since wealth from rising housing market will
be enough counteract the rising oil prices. As mentioned, business investments are slated
to promote the steady rise in GDP since current equipment may need to be replaced.
Spending and deficits on the local, state, and federal levels will most likely be the main
concern in 2005. President Bush plans to overhaul the nation’s tax code and reform
Social Security in hopes of inducing consumption by giving more back to the consumer.
However, the government needs to increase its funds to lower the deficit as it is
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what is essentially holding the economy back. 2005 is going to be an interesting year
since fiscal and monetary policies by Mr. Bush will either make or break the economy.
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Works Cited
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of the President.” The U.S. Government Printing Office. Online. 10 Nov. 2004.
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“Consumer Spending and Consumer Debt.” University of Alabama. Online. 22 Nov.
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<http://money.cnn.com/2001/10/02/economy/fed/>.
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< http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy05/pdf/2004_erp.pdf>.
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“Health Care and the 2004 Election.” KaiserEDU.org. Online. 29 Nov. 2004
<http://www.kaiseredu.org/IssueModules/2004elections/index.cfm>.
Hubbard, Robert Glenn and Randall S. Kroszner, and Mark B. McClellan. “The
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“Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.” The Federal Reserve. 17 Nov.
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“It’s Official: 2001 Recession Only Lasted Eight Months.” CNN Money. 17 Jul. 2003.
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“President’s Agenda for Tax Relief.” The White House. Online 20 Nov. 2004
<http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/reports/taxplan.html>.
Roubini, Nouriel. “Productivity Growth in the 1990s.” New York University. 1998.
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<http://www.forbes.com/energy/2004/06/03/cx_pm_oilslide.html?thisSpeed=150
00',800,700)>.
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“U.S. Job Cuts Soar.” CNN Money. 05 Oct. 2001. Online. 20 Nov. 2004
<http://money.cnn.com/2001/10/05/economy/economy/>.
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