SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY
PS3003: Judgment & Decision Making
Course Handout 2007/8
This handout contains information and advice about the objectives of the course, its structure and
assessment. Please read the handout carefully and retain it for future reference.
KEY STAFF
NAME
ROOM NO.
EMAIL ADDRESS
TELEPHONE
Prof. Peter Ayton
Department Office Contact
Mr. Sam Kearsley
D406
X8524
3rd floor admin
Social Science
Building
X8583
S.Kearsley@city.ac.uk
AIM & OBJECTIVES
Aims
1. To provide students with knowledge and understanding of psychological research in the
field of judgment and decision-making
2. To develop students’ ability to reflect critically upon the nature of different psychological
theories and model of judgment and decision making, their conceptual coherence and their
relation to evidence.
3. To introduce students to approaches to judgment and decision making from other areas
of cognitive science
Objectives
1. Critically evaluate the way in which psychological methods and ideas can inform our
understanding of human judgement and decision-making.
2. Appreciate the relationship between research issues and findings, the human
context, and policy implications.
TIMETABLE
Lectures:
FRIDAYS 10.00-11.50
Location: DLG20
Clinic:
FRIDAYS 12.00-1.00
Location: D406
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COURSE OUTLINE
Topic
1.
Introduction to Normative, descriptive and prescriptive theory
2.
Anomalies in Choice
3.
Prospect Theory
4.
Sunk cost Effect
5.
Emotion Risk and Choice
6.
Deciding about Happiness
7.
Nonconsequentialist reasoning and choice
8.
Bootstrapping of Judgment
9.
Fast and frugal decisions
10.
Behavioral Game Theory
(Proposed topics – but this is somewhat negotiable – we can discuss topics in class from a
larger set listed with references below)
Assessment
80% Exam and 20% coursework (essay). Students will sit one two-hour exam at the end of
the academic year. Two questions to be answered from a choice of six.
Coursework:
One Essay of no more than 2000 words should be submitted.
Title to be discussed AND APPROVED BY ME in the class.
DEADLINE: 4.00 p.m. on FRIDAY MARCH 18th2008.
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Readings
See my webpage for articles.
http://www.staff.city.ac.uk/~sj361/ps3003_judgment_and_decision_mak.htm
The reading of primary sources, particularly journal articles is essential
Arkes, H. and Hammond, K. (eds) (1986) Judgment and decision making. Cambridge University Press.
Ayton, P. (2005) Judgment and Decision Making. In. Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. Cognitive Psychology. Oxford
University Press.
*Baron, J. (2001) Thinking and deciding. (3rd Edition) Cambridge University Press.
Connolly, T. Arkes. H.R., and Hammond, K.R. (1999) (Editors) Judgment and Decision Making: An
Interdisciplinary Reader (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making). Cambridge University press.
Dawes, R.M and Hastie, R. (2001) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: An Introduction to Judgement and
Decision Making. Sage Publications.
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. and the ABC Group (2000) Simple Heuristics that make us smart. Oxford Univ Press.
Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. (2001) (Eds) Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox MIT Press.
Gilovich, T. Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment
Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2002.
Goldstein, W.M. and Hogarth, R.M. (1997) Research on Judgment and Decision Making. CUP.
Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L, and Raiffa, H.L. (1998) Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better
Decisions. Harvard Business School Press.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (Eds) (2000) Choices, Values and Frames. CUP.
Koehler, D.J. and Harvey, N. (Editors) (2004). Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making
Mellers, B.A., Schwartz, A. and Cooke, A.D.J. (1998) Judgment and Decision Making.
Psychology, 49, 447-477.
Annual Review of
Payne et al (1992) Behavioral Decision Research Annual Review of Psychology, (43)
Plous, S. (1993) The psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill
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Introduction to Normative, descriptive and prescriptive theory
Ayton, P. (2005) Judgment and Decision Making. In. Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. Cognitive Psychology. Oxford
University Press.
Baron, J. (2004) Normative models of judgment and Decision Making In Koehler D.J. and Harvey, N. (Eds)
Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making.
Slovic, P. and Tversky, A. (1974) Who accepts Savage's axiom? Behavioral Science, 19, 368-373
Anomalies in Choice
Hsee, C. K. (1996). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and
separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 242-257.
Hsee, C. K. (1998). Less is better; When low-value options are valued more highly than high-value options.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 107-121.
Shafir E (1993) Choosing versus rejecting - why some options are both better and worse than others Memory &
Cognition 21 (4): 546-556.
Prospect Theory
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.. Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263292
Tversky and Kahneman, 1981 Science, 211, 453-458; also reprinted in Wright, G. (1985) Behavioral Decision
Making, Plenum.
Baron, J. (1988) Thinking and Deciding pp 330-341).
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (Eds) (2000) Choices, Values and Frames. CUP.
Sunk cost effect
Arkes, H.R. and Blumer, C. (1985) The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision
Processes, 35, 124-14. Reprinted in Connolly, T., Arkes, H. R. and Hammond, K. R., eds. (2000) Judgment and Decision
Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader, 2nd Ed. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 97-113.
Arkes, H.R. and Ayton, P. (1999). The sunk cost and concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower
animals? Psychological Bulletin, 125, 591-600
Soman D. (2001). The mental accounting of sunk time costs: Why time is not like money. Journal Of
Behavioral Decision Making 14, 169-185.
Emotion Risk and Choice
Hsee, C. K., & Rottenstreich (2004). Music, Pandas and Muggers: On the Affective Psychology of Value.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 133, 23-30.
Shiv, Baba, George Loewenstein, Antoine Bechara, Hanna Damasio, and Antonio Damasio (2005). Investment
behaviour and the negative side of emotion. Psychological Science, 16, 435-439
Slovic, P. (2007) “If I Look at the Mass I Will Never Act”: Psychic Numbing and Genocide. Judgment &
Decision Making, 2.79-95. http://journal.sjdm.org/jdm7303a.pdf
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Deciding about Happiness
Hsee, C. K. & Hastie, R. (2006). Decision and experience: Why don't we choose what makes us happy?
Trends in Cognitive Sciences. 10, 31-37.
Ayton, P., Pott, A. and Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective Forecasting: Why can’t people predict their emotions?
Thinking and Reasoning, 13, 62 – 80
Wilson, T. D. & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). Affective forecasting: Knowing what to want. Current Directions in
Psychological Science, 14, 131-134.
Nonconsequentialist reasoning and choice
Baron, Jonathan (1994) Nonconsequentialist decisions. Behavioral And Brain Sciences 17 (1), 1-10. (And
commentaries) http://www.bbsonline.org/documents/a/00/00/04/26/index.html
Shafir, E. and Tversky, A. (1992) Thinking through uncertainty: Nonconsequentialist reasoning and choice.
Cognitive Psychology, 24, 449-474.
Johnson, E. J. & Goldstein, D. G. (2003). Do defaults save lives? Science, 302, 1338-1339.
http://www.dangoldstein.com/papers/DefaultsScience.pdf
Bootstrapping of Judgment
Refs to appear on website
Fast and frugal decisions
Gigerenzer, G. & Goldstein, D. G., (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality.
Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. and the ABC Group (2000) Simple Heuristics that make us smart. Oxford Univ Press.
Todd , Peter M. and Gigerenzer, Gerd (1999) Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. The precis of: Simple
Heuristics That Make Us Smart, By Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd and the ABC Research Group. (1999)
Behavioral And Brain Sciences Full text available as: HTML
http://www.bbsonline.org/documents/a/00/00/04/69/bbs00000469-00/bbs.todd.html
Behavioral Game theory
Camerer (2003) Behavioral Game Theory. Princeton University Press
Colman, A. (2003) Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction
Behavioral And Brain Sciences 26, 139–198
Heuristics and Biases
Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1994) Subjective Probability: What should we believe? In, Wright, G and Ayton, P.
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY. Chichester: Wiley.
Kahneman, D and Tversky, A. On the reality of cognitive illusions PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1996, Vol.103,
No.3, pp.582-591
Gilovich, T. Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment
Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2002.
Gigerenzer, G. (1994) Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for
psychology (and vice-versa). In, Wright, G and Ayton, P. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY. Chichester: Wiley.
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Gigerenzer, G. (1996) On narrow norms and vague heuristics: Reply PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1996,
Vol.103, No.3, pp.592-596.
Realism of Confidence in Judgment
Gigerenzer_G, Hoffrage_U, Kleinbolting_H (1991). Probabilistic Mental Models - A Brunswikian Theory Of
Confidence PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1991, Vol.98, No.4, pp.506-528
Juslin P, Winman A, Olsson H (2000) Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical
examination of the hard-easy effect PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 107: (2) 384-396 APRIL issue
McClelland, A.G.R. and Bolger, F. The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and Models 1980-1994.
In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley.
Probability and Judgment.:
Fox CR, Rottenstreich Y (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty Psychological Science 14:
195-200.
Fox CR, Levav J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional
probability.Journal Of Experimental Psychology-General 13: 626-642.
Tversky, A. and Koehler, D. (1994). Support Theory: A non-extensional representation of subjective
probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547-567.
Ayton, P. (1997) How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers’ odds and support theory. Organizational
Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72, 99-115.
The construction of preferences
Hsee, C. K, Loewenstein, G. F., Blount, S. & Bazerman, M. H. (1999).
Preference reversals between joint and separate evaluation of options: A review and theoretical analysis.
Psychological Bulletin, 125, 576-590.
http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/christopher.hsee/vita/Papers/PreferenceRevers
al_PB.pdf
Ariely D, Loewenstein G, Prelec D. (2006). Tom Sawyer and the Construction of Value. Journal of Economic
Behavior & Organization 60, 1-10.
http://web.mit.edu/ariely/www/Papers/tom.pdf
Ariely, D. Loewenstein, G. and Prelec, D. (2003). Coherent arbitrariness: Stable demand curves without stable
preferences. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 73-106. http://web.mit.edu/ariely/www/Papers/CA.pdf
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