1 Solution Space In this chapter, we first present the solution space for the problem at hand. It consists of a list of measures that may be implemented to improve the accessibility of Nijmegen centre from the north. This list follows a structure based on a set of solution directions which has been derived from the main conclusions of the problem analysis. The solution space does not contain any thorough evaluation of the effects or feasibility of the measures included. Second, we select the measures from the solution space that are considered more suitable for implementation, according to the evaluation criteria (accessibility, environment, safety and costs) and the stakeholders’ positions. 1.1 Solution directions The goal of this research project is to improve the transport accessibility of the city center for car travelers using the Waalbrug route. To achieve that goal, severity of congestion (which is related to the I/C ratio) must be reduced in order to reduce delays1. Therefore, the first step in the process of developing solution directions was to identify ways to reduce the I/C ratios along the Waalbrug route (see Fig. 1). The I/C ratio can be influenced by: Reducing traffic intensities on the route Increasing the capacity of certain road stretches along the route Reducing intensities and/or increasing capacities (especially on the route’s bottlenecks2) could potentially lead to lower delays and hence improved accessibility. Improve the accessibility of Nijmegen centre from the North (route using the Waalbrug) Reducing car intensity on the route Public Transport Increasing capacity of the route Demand, traffic and parking policy Road infrastructure Figure 1-1 Solution directions The second step in the process of developing solution directions was to identify the types of measures that could influence traffic intensity and/or capacity on the Waalbrug route (see Figure 1-1). Those types of measures are: 1 Travel time delays increase more than proportionally when the intensity/capacity ratio increases (BPR function). 2 Because of the beta factor in the BPR function. 1) Measures aimed at improving public transport service. Regulation and infrastructure measures aimed at improving public transport service can influence travelers’ mode choice behavior and incentivize them to choose public transport or intermodal (car+transit) routes instead of car routes to reach their destination. As a result of modal shift, traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route would diminish (at least in the short term, if no damping effects due to induced demand are taken into account). 2) Demand, traffic and parking policy measures. This class of measures includes demand management, traffic management and parking management measures. Demand management measures can help to reduce car intensity on the route in rush hours, by limiting demand or by distributing demand over time. Traffic management measures can influence both the capacity of the route (by smoothing traffic operations) and traffic intensities (by diverting traffic or limiting traffic access to the route). Finally, parking management measures can be used to reduce traffic intensities on the route (in the short term) by diverting car drivers to specific parking facilities and take them out of the main route. 3) Road infrastructure measures. Building new infrastructure or rearranging existing infrastructure can help to increase the capacity of certain road segments along the Waalbrug route, especially the main bottlenecks. 1.2 Generation of measures The main conclusions of the problem analysis in combination with the solution directions previously mentioned were used as the basis to generate a comprehensive list of measures that may improve the transport accessibility of the city centre (see Figure 1-2). However, at this stage, their effects or feasibility were not evaluated yet. The list is the result of several brainstorming sessions. Improve the accessibility of Nijmegen centre from the North (route using the Waalbrug) Reducing car intensity on the route Public Transport Increasing capacity of the route Demand, traffic and parking policy Road infrastructure 1. Building new bus/tram lines 8. Road pricing 2. Improve existing bus/train services 2a. Increase commercial speed 2b. Increase frequencies 2c. Reduce access times 9. Smart pricing 14. Widen the Waalbrug 10. Dynamic Traffic Management measures 10a. Route guidance system 10b. Dynamic speed management 10c. Traffic lights management 10d. Ramp metering 15. Open Waalbrug’s side lanes to car traffic 3. Improve the Waalsprinter service 3a. Increase comfort 3b. Increase frequencies 4. Improve PT fare system 5. Provide new Park & Ride facilities 13. Build a new bridge to cross the river 16. Reduce/remove conflicts between traffic flows 16a. Reduce/remove conflicts on K. Traianusplein 16b. Reduce/remove conflicts on the Singels 11. Provide better parking information and guidance 12. Improve parking fare system 6. Ferry system 7. Improve image of PT Figure 1-2 Solution Space In the future, even though a new bridge will be built (Stadsbrug), it won't constitute an attractive alternative route for car drivers traveling to/from Nijmegen centre, south and east from/to the northern zones. As a result, the capacity of the Waalbrug route will still not be sufficient to accommodate predicted car traffic demand in peak hours, and car drivers will still experience important delays. By implementing demand management measures based on the concepts of “road pricing” (penalizing car drivers for using the route in peak hours) or “smart pricing” (rewarding car drivers for not using the route in peak hours), car traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route could be more efficiently distributed over time and hence be reduced during rush hours. Car traffic intensities could also be reduced by means of route guidance systems, which can support drivers in choosing quicker routes to their destination in case the Waalbrug route is too congested, thus reducing traffic demand on this route. Other measures could be based on modifying the parking fare system and providing better information about parking availability and guidance; those measures could be used to divert car drivers to specific parking facilities, thus getting them out of the Waalbrug route as soon as possible or reducing the amount of traffic conflicting with traffic on the Singels. Currently, as a result of imbalances between parking supply and demand in different zones of the city centre and the surrounding areas, car drivers who come from different areas in Nijmegen and want to park their vehicle in/near the city centre need to use the Singels or cross them in order to reach the cheapest parking facility. Measures aimed at improving public transport service can also help to reduce car traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route. Although currently all northern zones have a PT connection to the city centre, most of them are not competitive with car routes in terms of travel costs. Providing new PT services (tram or bus lines) with faster and more direct connections and/or improving the service quality of existing train and bus lines could foster modal shift and decrease the car traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route. If new PT were built, however, current plans to expand the PT network in the region in the future (which especially improve the connections between the city centre and Waalsprong, Elst and Arnhem South) should be taken into account. Key elements of existing transit services that could be improved are: a) commercial speed, frequencies and access times, for bus and train services; b) travel comfort and frequencies, for the Waalsprinter. Currently, intermodal routes (car+Waalsprinter) are almost the only routes including use of PT that are competitive with car routes in terms of travel costs. In addition, car+Waalsprinter routes can be used by travelers from all northern origins, so its potential number of users is very high. Therefore, they are the type of PT routes that shows the highest potential to reduce car traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route. Besides improving the Waalsprinter service, new Park & Ride facilities could be built in order to make new intermodal routes available to car drivers. For example, one of such intermodal routes could combine a ferry system with a new Park & Ride facility located in Waalsprong, in the northern shore of the river. Other possible measures that could lead to a higher usage of public transport and lower intensities on the Waalbrug are: providing lower fares (possibly for certain user classes, routes and time periods) and improving public transport’s image (in order to modify the inaccurate perceptions that travelers might have with regard to the benefits of using certain public transport services). As already mentioned, the capacity of the Waalbrug route is not sufficient to accommodate the predicted traffic demand. The Keizer Traianusplein is the main bottleneck, although the capacity of the Waalbrug is also limited. The capacity of the Singels is limited by the high number of conflicts between traffic streams. Several measures could contribute to increase the capacity of the route. First, measures could be implemented to reduce conflicts between traffic streams (e.g. by rearranging flow directions or traffic lights sequences) or even completely remove them (e.g. via tunnels, viaducts, etc); in this way, conflicts may be reduced/removed both on the Keizer Traianusplein and the Singels. Second, the capacity of the Waalbrug could be augmented by physically widening the bridge or by using its side lanes (currently used as bus lane in direction south and as bicycle path in direction north) for car traffic. The possibility of building an extra bridge crossing the Waal could also be considered. Third, dynamic traffic management measures such as ramp metering and dynamic speed management could be used to increase the capacity of route segments that are freeways (such as the Prins Mauritssingel and the Waalbrug). 1.3 Selection of measures After defining the solution space, we selected only those measures that are more suitable for implementation according to the criteria defined in Chapter 4 (accessibility, environment, safety and costs) and the stakeholders’ positions. Indeed, several actors have an interest in improving the accessibility of Nijmegen centre, and their support is crucial for the viability of the solutions to be implemented. In addition, some of the solutions have been discarded because the local government has already implemented similar measures or it is going to do so in the near future (see Table 1-1). Table 1-1 Selected and discarded alternatives # Public transport Demand, traffic and parking policy Road infrastructure Measure Reasons Selected? 1 Building new bus/tram lines No Future HOV plans 2 Improve existing bus/train services No Future HOV plans 3 Improve the Waalsprinter service Yes The WS has the highest potential to attract car users and is connected to all northern zones 4 Improve PT fare system No Financial difficulties 5 Provide new Park & Ride facilities No Competition with existing P&R 6 Ferry system No Long sailing route to cross dike, not competitive 7 Improve image of PT No Beyond the scope of the project 8 Road pricing No Politically difficult to implement 9 Smart pricing No High costs, not sustainable 10a Route guidance system No 10b Dynamic speed management No 10c Traffic lights management Yes 10d Ramp metering No 11 Provide better parking information and guidance Yes 12 Improve parking fare system Yes 13 Build a new bridge to cross the river No High costs, lack of support from stakeholders 14 Widen the Waalbrug No High costs, lack of support from stakeholders Yes Increasing capacity of the Waalbrug Yes Increasing capacity on the main bottleneck No Not feasible, creation of new conflicts 15 16a 16b Open Waalbrug's side lanes to car traffic Reduce/remove conflicts on K. Traianusplein Reduce/remove conflicts on the Singels Complex, does not fit into research framework Marginal effect expected (max.speed = 50km/h) Increasing capacity of the K. Traianusplein and the Singels at low cost Ramps are not the main problem Possibility to influence car travelers' route choice behavior Possibility to influence car travelers' route choice behavior Discarded measures: Measures 1 and 2 have not been selected because the local government already has plans to build three HOV lines which will provide more competitive PT routes for people traveling between the city centre and northern zones such as Waalsprong, Elst, Bemmel or Arnhem South. This new lines will also improve the competitiveness of some of the existing PT routes, such as the train route between Arnhem South and Nijmegen centre (for which the access time will be diminish after building the HOV 2 bus connection). Measure 3 has not been selected because lowering transit fares is a difficult measure to implement. The main reason is that PT service is already publicly subsidized and decreasing revenues may lead to financial viability problems. Measures 4 and 5 have been discarded because providing new P&R facilities along the route could be counter-productive, since the new facilities may compete for travelers with the existing P&R at Ressen and negatively influence the use of the Waalsprinter service. In the case of the ferry system, besides the reason mentioned above, the sailing route is not direct enough as a result of the construction of a second dike in the northern shore of the river Waal, which undermines the competitiveness of such a service. Measure 7 has been discarded because marketing measures are beyond the scope of this research project. Measure 8 has not been selected because a road pricing system is technically complex and politically difficult to implement. Its effects are also uncertain, since Nijmegen is a small city and the public transport network is not competitive enough. Measure 9 was already implemented at the beginning of September 2009 reduce traffic intensities during the reconstruction of the A325 and Prins Mauritssingel. The measure was considered successful but it was very costly. Implementing such a measure on an everyday basis would require high and constant investments in the following years; therefore, it has been discarded. Measure 10a has not been selected because its effects on accessibility are complex to evaluate and because it is a measure that can be useful to deal with traffic demand variability, which has not been analyzed in our project. Measure 10b has been discarded because its effects are expected to be marginal due to the fact that the maximum speed on the route’s bottlenecks (Keizer Traianusplein and Waalbrug) is very low (50km/h). Measure 10d has not been selected because ramps and the weaving movements associated with them are not the main element limiting the capacity of the Waalbrug route’s bottlenecks, thus the potential effects of ramp metering are assumed to be marginal. Measures 13 and 14 have been discarded because of the high investment costs and the lack of support from the main actors involved. They are not desired solutions for the local government, especially building an additional bridge, since a new bridge is already planned (Stadsbrug). Moreover, building an extra bridge would have high investment costs3. The environmental groups are also against investing in more road traffic infrastructure, although the associations of entrepreneurs of the city center back infrastructure measures. Measure 16b has been discarded for two main reasons. First, it is hard to reduce conflicts between traffic streams on the Singels without creating new ones. Second, reducing conflicts would most likely involve major changes on the road layout and this is 3 The cost of the Stadsbrug is estimated to 90 million euro. against the interests of the main stakeholders, who wish to preserve the historic characteristics of the Singels. Selected measures: Measure 3 has been selected because improving the Waalsprinter service is a measure which has a high potential to reduce car traffic intensities on the Waalbrug route, thus relieving congestion. Moreover, it would contribute to improve accessibility of Nijmegen center by public transport, which is a strong interest of most of the stakeholders. Also, it is a non infrastructural measure with relatively low investment costs. Improving the Waalsprinter service can potentially score high on criteria such as travel costs, reliability, environment and costs. Measure 10c is selected because one of the main factors limiting the capacity of the Waalbrug route’s bottlenecks is the waiting time due to red phases of traffic lights (in Keizer Traianusplein and Singels). Optimizing traffic lights sequences in key intersections (in combination with measures to remove/reduce conflicts) could lead to smoother traffic flow, increased capacity and decreased congestion severity, and therefore higher accessibility. This is a non-infrastructural measure and its costs are low, so it could easily be accepted by the main stakeholders. Measures 11 and 12 are selected because a combination of both offers the possibility of guiding car drivers who are looking for parking to specific garages in such a way that they leave the Waalbrug route as soon as possible (if they come from the north) or they do not cross the Singels (if they come from the south). The stakeholders would most likely support such a measure, as it is a soft measure that does not involve building new infrastructure and does not have high investment costs, while it could contribute to lower traffic intensities in the Waalbrug route and reduce conflicts with crossing traffic. Measure 15 is selected because the current capacity of the Waalbrug is deemed to be insufficient and it constitutes one of the main bottlenecks in the route, while there are still two side lanes that could be used by car traffic. These two lanes are currently used as bus lane in direction south and as bicycle path in direction north. This measure does not involve building new infrastructure (only rearranging the layout), therefore its costs would not be high. However, opening the side lanes to car traffic means that cyclists and public transport would be negatively affected. As a result, this measure might generate controversy among stakeholders. Measure 16a has been selected because it can contribute to increase the capacity of Keizer Traianusplein, which has been identified as the main bottleneck in the Waalbrug route, at moderate investment costs. The idea is to smooth traffic flow to the Singels by removing some conflicts and reducing others. Most of the stakeholders would probably support the implementation of this measure. Although it may involve building more infrastructure, the construction costs would be moderate and no extra land would be needed. Furthermore, implementation of this measure would not change the characteristics of the Singels, which is in line with the interests of not only the local government, but also the environmental groups and political parties. Environmental groups may oppose this measure because it involves building more infrastructure for road transport, while they advocate for promoting alternative modes of transportation.