The sales performance of heritage-listed properties: A Tasmanian study: 2008 Background Heritage Tasmania completed a study of the sale-price performance of heritage listed residential properties. Tasmania has many buildings and places with heritage value, a large number of which are privately owned. The impact of heritage listing on resale value is a common concern for prospective buyers. Interstate and overseas research shows that, like any property, the value of a heritage-listed property will be affected by a range of factors including size, location, trends in the real estate market cycle and the quality and maintenance of the property. This study aims to clarify the situation in Tasmania with regards the impact of heritage listing on property values. Study design The study involved: A comparison of the price performance of all heritage-listed residential properties in Devonport, Burnie and Ulverstone over a 17 year period from April 1991 – June 2008. A comparison of the price performance of a random sample of heritage-listed properties in Launceston and Hobart over a 23 year period from April 1985 – June 2008. Table 1 details the number of properties for which sales performance was compared, based on locality. For each property the last sale prices from LIST were compared with the Real Estate Institute’s (REIT) Monthly Median Sales Price for Houses, kindly supplied by the REIT. The REIT data provided a measure of the median property price per month for Ulverstone, Burnie Devonport, Launceston and Hobart. The REIT data covered the period from April 85 – June 2008 for Hobart and Launceston. For Ulverstone, Burnie and Devonport, the REIT data commenced from April 91. The gaps in REIT information limited the comparative analysis, although only slightly. Locality Ulverstone Burnie Devonport Launceston Hobart Total No of properties 19 9 20 50 50 148 Table 1: number of heritage-listed properties by locality for which sales performance measured 1 Results In general, the sales performance of heritage-listed property was more positive than the median sales performance in each of the five localities (see Table 2). Available comparative data in Ulverstone, Burnie and Devonport limited the comparative analysis. In addition, there are very few residential properties in these localities which are permanently entered in the Tasmanian Heritage Register, further limiting the available comparative data. In Ulverstone sales performance prices for only19 of the 66 heritage-listed residential properties was available. Of these 19 properties, only 3 experienced a negative down-turn in sales performance, with REIT monthly median sales prices showing a similar downturn for two out of three of those months. In general, however, the properties exhibited an 85% increase in property value (median), compared with 47% of all property sales in the comparable months (see Table 2). In Burnie, only 10 residential properties are permanently entered on the Tasmanian Heritage Register. Nine of these properties have had recent sales, with only 2 experiencing a negative down-turn in sales, replicating the general movement in sales as provided by REIT Monthly Median Sales Prices. The 9 properties exhibited a median increase in property value of 47%, compared with 15% of all property sales in the comparable months (see Table 2). In Devonport, sales data was available for 20 of the 69 permanently listed places in the Tasmanian Heritage Register. Of these, only 2 properties experienced a down-turn in sales performance. This was not comparable with the positive returns experienced in general in Devonport at that time. The 20 properties exhibited a median increase in property value of 141%, compared with 63% of all property sales in the comparable months (see Table 2). In Launceston and Hobart, the sales performance of only a random selection of permanently listed residential properties was examined. In Launceston, the 50 properties examined were sampled from High Street / Wellman Street, Inveresk, Invermay, Trevallyn and central Launceston. The sample included modest houses through to larger residences. The 50 properties exhibited a median increase in property value of 59%, compared with 32% of all property sales in the comparable months (see Table 2). Only two properties experienced a down-turn in sales performance, both replicating minor downturns in the market (REIT Monthly Median Sales Price data). In Hobart, the 50 properties examined were samples from Battery Point, Sandy Bay, West Hobart, North Hobart and South Hobart. Again, the sample included modest houses through to larger residences. Sourcing sales performance was difficult for places within Battery Point given the lower turn over of properties in that suburb. The 50 properties exhibited a median increase in property value of 84%, compared with 67% of all property sales in the comparable months (see Table 2). Only two properties experienced a down-turn in sales performance, which was inconsistent with the general market movement at that time (REIT Monthly Median Sales Price data). Locality Ulverstone Burnie Devonport Launceston Hobart Median sales performance heritage listed properties (%) 85 47 141 59 84 Median sales performance all properties (%) 47 15 63 32 67 Table 2: Sales performance of heritage-listed properties by locality compared with median monthly sales prices by locality (REIT Monthly Median Sales Price data). 2 A second comparison was undertaken to determine the shift in sales price of the heritage-listed properties against the shift in median sales prices of all properties for the same period. The results of this comparison more clearly show the variable nature of sales performance on heritage-listed properties. The median difference in sales performance was positive across all localities except Ulverstone, which showed a -1% downturn in the increase of property values of heritage-listed properties compared with the increase of property values for all properties in Ulverstone for the same period (see Table 3). Locality Ulverstone Burnie Devonport Launceston Hobart Median increase / decrease in property values -1 26 14 11 3 Table 3: Comparison of shift in sales prices of heritage-listed properties against the shift in median sales prices of all properties for the same period (REIT Monthly Median Sales Price data). An examination of performance against each locality provides a different perspective. At each locality, a number of properties exhibited ‘poor performance’ compared with the market trends at that time. ‘Poor performance’ was defined as having more than a 10% decrease in monthly median sales prices for the exact same period. Looking at each locality, in Ulverstone, 7 out of 19 heritage-listed properties performed poorly compared with the market trends at that time. In Devonport, 4 of the 20 heritage-listed properties performed poorly. In Burnie, only 1 out of the 9 properties performed poorly compared with the market trends at the time (see Table 4). Similar trends were seen for Launceston and Hobart. In Launceston, 10 of the 50 properties examined had poor sales performance compared with the market trends at that time. In Hobart, 19 of the 50 properties examined had poor sales performance compared with the market trends at that time (see Table 4). Locality Ulverstone Burnie Devonport Launceston Hobart No. of properties performing poorly 7 1 4 10 19 41 % of properties examined 37 11 20 20 38 28 Table 4: Number of properties per locality for which sales performance was greater than 10% lower than monthly median sales price for the locality at that time (REIT Monthly Median Sales Price data). Discussion The analysis conducted and outcomes generated provide an indication only of the impact of heritage listing on the sale performance of properties. In general heritage-listed properties perform well compared with monthly median sales figures. For each locality, the median sales price of heritage-listed properties was greater than the median sale price for all properties in the same time period. 3 Looking more closely at individual movements, 28 per cent of properties across Ulverstone, Burnie, Devonport, Launceston and Hobart experienced ‘poor sales performance’ compared with all sales at that time. ‘Poor performance’ was defined as having more than a 10% decrease in monthly median sales prices for the exact same period. The results however are not statistically significant for a number of reasons: Given the low levels of sales movement across heritage properties and the comparatively small number of residential properties which are permanently registered in the Tasmanian Heritage Register, the results cannot be construed as being statistically relevant. Where properties exhibited a significant negative down-turn in sales performance it is impossible to determine whether the poor sales performance resulted from heritage listing in itself or some other factor, eg poor maintenance, significant damage through fire or flood, or the need for a quick sale for personal reasons. Similarly, where significant increases in sales performances were exhibited it is impossible to determine whether the sales performance was affected by other factors such as modernisation of amenities or additions to the residence. Individual properties also caused spikes in the data. For example, the sales price for a property in Ulverstone in February 2006 was 11 times higher than the monthly median sales price. By the time the same property sold in December 07, it doubled in value. However across Ulverstone, median house prices had risen 15 times in the same period. Without more detailed analysis of each property and the reasons behind sales performance, it is impossible to provide conclusive evidence one way or the other whether heritage-listing impacts on sales performance. The results are consistent with interstate and international research. Like any property, property value is affected by a range of factors including size, location, trends in the real estate market cycle and the quality and maintenance of the property. A suburb by suburb analysis of sales performance may reveal a different picture. For example, it is likely to highlight the positive sales performance in areas such as Battery Point, top end of Davey Street Hobart, and the Launceston precincts such as High Street and Wellman Street. Examining random samples in Hobart and Launceston may have provided a different snapshot. However, as indicated earlier, an analysis of these precincts showed limited movement in the market. Summary Heritage Tasmania completed a study of the sale-price performance of heritage listed residential properties. The study involved a comparison of the price performance of all heritage-listed residential properties in Devonport (n=20), Burnie (n=9) and Ulverstone (n=19) over a 17 year period from April 1991 – June 2008, and in a random sample of heritage-listed properties in Launceston (n=50) and Hobart (n=50) over a 23 year period from April 1985 – June 2008. In general heritage-listed properties perform well compared with monthly median sales figures. For each locality, the median sales price of heritage-listed properties was greater than the median sale price for all properties in the same time period. The smallest positive trend was for Hobart, showing a median of 3% greater increase in sales performance compared with all other properties in the same period. Launceston and Devonport showed similar results, with 11% and 14% increases respectively. Burnie exhibited the highest with a 26% greater increase in sales performance compared with all properties in Burnie for the same period. Ulverstone was the only locality to show a downturn – though at 1% it cannot be considered significant. 4 Looking more closely at individual movements, 28 per cent of properties across Ulverstone, Burnie, Devonport, Launceston and Hobart experienced ‘poor sales performance’ compared with all sales at that time. ‘Poor performance’ was defined as having more than a 10% decrease in monthly median sales prices for the exact same period. The results are not, however statistically relevant given the small sample size resulting from low turnover of heritage-listed properties. The inability to determine reasons for sales performance including additions, restorations, damage or poor maintenance, or the need for fast sales for personal reasons can provide only a basic analysis of the data. Heritage Tasmania will continue the research to ensure up-to-date and valid information can be provided to address these limitations. 5