THE MIDDLE EAST IN TRANSFORMATION
POLS 440/571: Spring 2014
Professor Bahgat Korany
Office hours Wed. 2.15-4.15 (These are open house hours. If they are impossible for
some, please contact me for an appointment : Koranyb@aucegypt.edu, )
I.
Objectives:
When this course was first given five years ago (Spring 2009), it was a critique of the
over-emphasis on continuity and the marginalization of the analysis of change , of the
focus on statics rather than the dynamics of socio-political life, nationally and
internationally. In the region where we live, this over-emphasis on continuity was pushed
to the extreme by the assumption of a certain “Arab exceptionalism” - the assertion that
the rest of the world was changing, while this region was not. Now that this static
perception was proven exaggerated and the counter-argument of The Changing ME has
been confirmed by recent events . At present , the challenge is to analyze as scientifically
as possible the different facets of change and their impact , negative or positive.
Tumultuous times since Jan.-Feb. 2011 prove that the Arab Middle East is not at all
“exceptional” , but rather part and parcel of the global process of change. For instance,
globally in 2008 the world was hit hard by the global financial crisis and its multifaceted impact. Oil prices fell in a month or so from about $148 to less than $40 a barrel.
We were told that the crisis would continue for some time and comparison was made
with the 1929-World Depression. But a year later the world crisis seemed to be contained
, oil prices hover now around $ 110 per barrel, and some banks that were threatened by
bankruptcy started to make profits . This world financial crisis coincided with the election
of an Afro-American, Barak Obama to the White House. Obama’s campaign was based
on the motto of effecting change :“ Yes , we can ” ,and he aims at new policies in his 2nd
mandate . These examples, taken from current affairs, show that change is a
characteristic of daily life. It is indeed the only constant .
Of course, it is easier to analyze continuity - business as usual- rather than to shoot
at a moving target . But by focusing on what is easily-done, i.e.continuity , are we not
then giving a one-sided and biased view of social reality, and indeed risking being
irrelevant? For in the era of the “global village,” when contemporary history can be
viewed as a “fast forward” process, is it not unrealistic and even distorting to talk about
the Middle East as unchanging?!
This is why the challenge of analyzing change has to be faced head on, even if the
media as well as some classic books continue to emphasize symbols of continuity,
impressing on us over and over again that the Middle East does not change, or rather
“plus ca change…plus c’est la meme chose.” References in both general I.R. textbooks
and also specialized analysis often confirm this unchanging dimension of regional
politics. (For example, one of the most influential IR books –Brown: The International
Relations of the Middle East - talks about the continuity of Middle East diplomatic
behavior and culture since the time of the Ottoman Empire). The fact that conflict—
Arab-Israeli, 1st , 2nd and 3rd Gulf wars, ethnic and domestic civil strife—has dominated
and continues to persist in the Middle East, helps this bias in favor of continuity as a
characteristic of regional dynamics.
Without neglecting elements of continuity, this seminar takes a different approach. It
zooms in on aspects of change and their causes. Consequently, the prevalence of conflict
will be analyzed—not only as an indicator of continuity—but more importantly as a
factor for transformation, good or bad. Consider the impact of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war,
Sadat’s 1977-‘sacred mission’ to Israel, and the 9/11 attacks and their
American/international impact. Moreover, transformation should be thought of not only
in terms of sudden shifts, but also as incremental changes, i.e. gradual and cumulative
(e.g. demographic growth ; impact of the “youth bulge”; media transformation ;
increasing water scarcity ; status of women ….).
II.
Structure, Methodology and Organization
The seminar is essentially interdisciplinary. Rather than following the traditional view of
separating domestic and international politics, the seminar instead emphasizes their
linkage ( in my chapter in the Oxford book , I call this close INTERnational/doMESTIC
linkage intermestics, and I explain it ). The course aims to combine the assets of history
and the social sciences—whether sociology, political economy, or obviously, political
science. It adopts an overall approach concentrating on general regional dynamics rather
than on any one country per se. The seminar starts by confronting some general I.R.
approaches to international transformation with major Middle East events. The emphasis,
on the one hand, is on how general conceptualization can be refined when confronted
with concrete situations, and, on the other, is on how Middle East empirical events can be
better grasped and rendered more coherent when linked to some general political science
concepts.
In addition to some general I.R. literature on international transformation that will be
considered, basic texts used for this course are:
Bahgat Korany & Rabab el-Mahdy (eds.)The Arab Spring in Egypt : Revolution and
Beyond .New York and Cairo : AUC Press , 2012 ( An Arabic edition is published by
Korany with a special introduction by the Center for Arab Unity Studies , Beirut ,
2012).This is the basic textbook .
Alternative references/readings come from :
Louise Fawcett (ed.) International Relations of the Middle East. Oxford, Oxford
University Press. 2013 (3rd edition).
Bahgat Korany (ed.) The Changing Middle East .Cairo , AUC Press , 2010 ( make sure
you get the 2011-Tahrir paperback edition with the new introduction.)
UNDP: Arab Human Development Report 2013, The People Want…Empowerment .
New York , 2013
The readings for the course , except the UNDP Report , are put on reserve in the library
as well as in the copy center.
III.
Requirements
To get the maximum from this course, regular attendance, prior reading of the texts, and
active participation are prerequisites:
Exams
40% (for undergrads the best two mid-term grades out of three , for
graduates a literature review paper )
Research
30% (final term paper )
Participation 30%
IV.
Though a detailed outline with specific authors/chapters/pages will be
distributed once the class begins , here is an overview of how we are going
to proceed.
Weeks I-II
Weeks II-III
Weeks III-IV
Weeks V-IX
Week X-XIV
Week XV
Introduction/distribution and comment on the syllabus
More on identifying transformation and accounting for it:
framework of Analysis
In Search of Middle East Transformation: an attempt to
reread differently M.E. modern and contemporary history.
Anatomy of a specific case of transformation : Egypt’s Arab Spring
and its group dynamics.…
Students’ research and presentations (with the exception of the
Spring Break April 28 – May 6)
Wrap-up and drawing some general conclusions
B E S T
O F L U C K