Chapter 6 Page 1 of 14 Chapter 6 Normal Curve Spring 2016 (12/26/15) Chapter 6 Page 2 of 14 Chapter 17 Normal Distribution Draw a histogram bar graph of height of 501 basketball players from 2012 frequency table player rosters. height 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 in. number 3 12 20 24 38 33 34 41 45 50 56 52 41 33 11 2 1 players 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 Height If it has the general appearance resembling a bell-shape, it is called a normal distribution or normal curve, and there will be extra information that can be interpreted from the graph for predicting the height of basketball players on future teams. From previous chapter, if we calculate µ (median), µ σ σ (standard deviation) = 79 = 3.47 you can make predictions about height of future year players. Chapter 6 Page 3 of 14 symmetry, µ (median), σ (standard deviation) for basketball players symmetrical symmetrical Curve change point P located 1 σ left of median Curve change point P located 1 σ right of median σ = 3.47 σ = 3.47 0 75.53” 79” 82.47” µ = median Height 50% of future players will be 79” or taller (and 50% will be 79” or shorter) 50% 79” height Quartiles: (25%, 75%) µ - .675 σ = 79 - .675(3.47) = 76.66” Q3 = µ + .675 σ = 79 + .675(3.47) = 81.34” Q1 = 25% future players will be 76.66” or shorter 75% future players will be 81.34” or shorter 25% will be between 76.66” and 79” 50% future players will be between Q1 and Q3 tall (76.66” and 81.34”) 25% future players will be 81.34” or taller 25% 75% future players will be 76.66” or taller 25% 50% 25% 25% 76.66 79 81.34 height Q1 Q3 25% will be between 79” and 81.34” Chapter 6 Page 4 of 14 Standardizing Normal Data - means describing player heights on the horizontal axis in terms of “z” (distance in standard deviations 3.47”) 1 “z” = σ = 3.47 inches curvature change point P σ 3.47 curvature change point P σ 3.47 σ 3.47 68.59 72.06 75.53 z = -3 z = -2 z = -1 79 μ z=0 σ 3.47 σ 3.47 82.47 z = +1 σ 3.47 85.94 89.41” tall z = +2 z = +3 79” + 3.47” = 82.47” is (1) σ to the right of the median or z = +1 79” + 2(3.47”) = 85.94” is (2) σ to the right of the median or z = +2 79” + 3(3.47”) = 89.41” is (3) σ to the right of the median or z = +3 79” - 3.47” = 75.53” is (1) σ to the left of the median or z = -1 79” - 2(3.47”) = 72.06” is (2) σ to the left of the median or z = -2 79” - 3(3.47”) = 68.59” is (3) σ to the left of the median or z = -3 What is 6 foot (72”) in z’s ? 72 – 79 = -7 -7/3.47 = -2.02 z = -2.02 What is 7 foot (84”) in z’s ? 84 – 79 = +5 +5/3.47 = +1.44 z = +1.44 Chapter 6 Page 5 of 14 Practice problems page 193 3.) Given following graph: with 32 and 48 located at the curvature change points…. Curve change points P 32 Find: 48 µ, σ, Q3, Q1 a.) The median µ is located midway in the distance between the curvature change points 32 and 48………32 + 48 = 40 (½ way point) 2 50% 50% P P 8 32 8 40 48 b.) The standard deviation σ is the distance from the median to the curvature change point µ = 40; curvature change point is at 48; σ is 48 – 40 = 8 c.) Q3 = + .675 = 40 + .675(8) = 45.4 ¼ points, 25% each d.) Q1 = - .675 = 40 - .675(8) = 34.6 25% 25% 25% 25% 8 8 32 40 48 34.6 µ 45.4 Q1 Q3 Chapter 6 Page 6 of 14 17.) Given following graph: with µ = 310 and Q3 = 391 310 µ a.) What is “z” for 490? First, find σ: Q3 = µ + .675 σ 391 = 310 + .675 σ 391 – 310 = σ = 120 .675 “z” for 490: 490 – 310 = + 1.5 (means 490 is 1.5 σ 120 b.) What is “z” for 250? to the right of µ) “z” for 250: 250 – 310 = - 0.5 120 z = - 0.5 (means 250 is .5 σ to the left of c.) What is “z” for 220? µ) “z” for 220: 220 – 310 = - 0.75 120 z = - 0.75 (means 220 is .75 σ to the left of d.) What is “z” for 442? µ) “z” for 442: 442 – 310 = + 1.1 120 z = +1.1 (means 442 is 1.1 σ to the right of µ) Chapter 6 Page 7 of 14 (68-95-99.7) RULE - property of normal curves. All Normal curves have the same geometrical characteristics defined by (68-95-99.7) RULE Example: height of 501 basketball players from 2012 frequency table player rosters. µ = 79” σ = 3.47” 68 95 99.7 RULE 99.7 % = 2.35%+13.5%+34%+34%+13.5%+2.35% 95% = 13.5%+34%+34%+13.5% 68% = 34%+34% Curve change point 1 σ left of median 0.15% 2.35% players Curve change point 1 σ right of median 34% of players = 3.47 34% of players = 3.47 9% 25% 25% 9% 13.5% players ( - 2) 72.06 2.5th percentile 16th percentile 25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile 84th percentile 97.5th percentile 99.85th percentile 0.15% 13.5% players Q1 ( -3 ) 68.59 2.35% players ( - ) 75.53 76.66” Q3 Median ( + ) 79 82.47 ( + 2) 85.94 ( + 3) 89.41” tall 81.34” important percentiles add %’s starting from far left; example: 0.15% + 2.35% + 13.5% = 16th percentile Chapter 6 Page 8 of 14 Example- BRICKLAYERS - the American Bricklayers Association, who compiles data for thousands of bricklayers, published the following data for Contracting firms to use for estimating labor requirements: “The median bricklayer can install 60 bricks per hour, and the standard deviation for bricklayers is 5 bricks per hour.” μ = 60 σ= 5 Pretend you work for ABC Construction Co. who will hire 1000 bricklayers to build several new dorms and other buildings on New York campuses. The Project Superintendent asks you the following typical construction questions: 1.) How many bricklayers can lay more than 65 bricks in one hour? Pay them “premium wages” for advanced workers. 2.) How many can lay between 45 and 70 bricks every hour? Assign those men to DORM B. 3.) How many bricklayers will lay less than 45 bricks in one hour? Set up a training program for them. 4.) How many bricklayers will we have for DORM C where we need to lay 70 or more bricks every hour? 5.) How many bricklayers can lay between 55 and 65 bricks every hour? We’ll pay them the standard hourly wage rate for Journeymen. Without knowing anything about Bricks, Bricklaying, or Bricklaying Craftsmen, you can answer all these questions by knowing Normal Curve 68-95-99.7 characteristics. Chapter 6 Page 9 of 14 The Bricklayer Association Normal Curve for this data looks like this: 68 95 99.7 99.7 % = 2.35%+13.5%+34%+34%+13.5%+2.35% 95% = 13.5%+34%+34%+13.5% 68% = 34%+34% Curve change point Curve change point 34% of 34% of bricklayers bricklayers 0.15% 2.35% b’layers 9% 25% 13.5% b’layers 25% 9% 2.35% b’layers 0.15% 13.5% b’layers Q3 50 55 60 65 70 75 BRICKS / HR. Q1 = - .675 (25th percentile) = 60 - .675(5) Q3 = + .675 (75th percentile) = 57 bricks/hr. = 60 + .675(5) = 63 bricks/hr. Q1 45 1.) How many of the 1000 bricklayers will lay 65 bricks/hour or more = (13.5% + 2.35% + .15%) of 1000 = 160 bricklayers 2.) How many of the 1000 bricklayers will lay 45 bricks/hour to 70 bricks/hour = (2.35% + 13.5% + 34% +34% + 13.5%) of 1000 = 974 bricklayers 3.) How many of the 1000 bricklayers will lay 45 bricks/hour or less = .15% of 1000 = 2 bricklayers 4.) How many of the 1000 bricklayers will lay 70 bricks/hour or more = (2.35% + .15%) of 1000 = 25 bricklayers 5.) How many of the 1000 bricklayers will lay from 55 bricks/hour to 65 bricks/hour = (34% + 34%) of 1000 = 680 bricklayers Do practice problems page 194: 29, 31ab Chapter 6 Page 10 of 14 Golf – The PGA (Professional Golfers Association) say that at Battle Island Golf Course in Oswego, the median score is 101, and the standard deviation is 8. = 101 =8 One of your new jobs at work is being the Assistant Golf League Secretary for the Thursday Night League. There are 30 ladies playing this Summer. You don’t know any of them personally. In fact, you don’t even play golf. Still…you can forecast: 1.) How many of the ladies will score 101 or more? 2.) How many of the ladies will score 93 to 101? 3.) How many of the ladies will score 85 to 96? 4.) How many of the ladies will score 85 or less? 5.) How many of the ladies will score 117 or more? 6.) What is the score of the golfer at the 1st Quartile (25th percentile)? 7.) How many golfers will be in the Inter Quartile Range? 8.) How many golfers will score 93 or less? for prizes Chapter 6 Page 11 of 14 The Golf Normal Curve looks like this: 68 95 99.7 99.7 % = 2.35%+13.5%+34%+34%+13.5%+2.35% 95% = 13.5%+34%+34%+13.5% 68% = 34%+34% Inflection change point Inflection change point 34% of golfers 0.15% 2.35% golfers 9% 13.5% golfers 25% 34% of golfers 25% 9% 2.35% golfers 0.15% 13.5% golfers Q3 77 85 93 101 106 109 117 125 Golf Score Q1 = - .675 (25th percentile) = 101 - .675(8) Q3 = + .675 (75th percentile) = 96 strokes . = 101 + .675(8) = 106 strokes 1.) How many of the ladies will score 101 or more? = (34% + 13.5% + 2.35% + .15%) of 30 = 50% of 30 = 15 2.) How many of the ladies will score 93 to 101? shaded = (34%) of 30 = 10.2 = approximately 10 3.) How many of the ladies will score 85 to 96? = (13.5% + 9%) of 30 = 22.5% of 30 = 6.75 = approximately 7 4.) How many of the ladies will score 85 or less? shaded = (0.15% + 2.35%) of 30 = 2.5% of 30 = .75 = approximately 1 5.) How many of the ladies will score 117 or more? shaded = (2.35% + 0.15%) of 30 = 2.5% of 30 = .75 = approximately 1 6.) What is the score of the golfer at the 1st Quartile (25th percentile, Q1)? Q1 = - .675 = 101 - .675(8) = 96 7.) How many golfers will be in the Inter Quartile Range? = (25% + 25%) of 30 = 50% of 30 = 15 8.) How many the ladies will score 93 or less? = (13.5% + 2.35% + 0.15%) of 30 = 16% of 30 = 4.8 = approximately 5 Q1 96 Do practice problems page 194: 41abcd,42abc,43ab,44abcd Chapter 6 Page 12 of 14 Practice problems page 194 29.) Given: 68%, between 42, 54. Find and for following graph: All Normal curves have the same geometrical characteristics defined by (68-95-99.7) RULE 68% = 34%+34% Curve change point Curve change point located above 1 σ right of median 34% of data 34% of data ( - ) 42 Median ( + ) Mean 54 2 σ = 54 - 42 = 12 σ = 12/2 = 6 µ = 42 + 6 = 48 31a,b.) Given: 95%, between 85.2, 98.8. Find Q1 Q3 for following graph: All Normal curves have the same geometrical characteristics defined by (68 - 95 - 99.7) RULE 95% = 13.5%+34%+34%+13.5% Curve change point Curve change point 13.5% ( - 2) 85.2 34% of data ( - ) 4 σ = 98.8 - 85.2 = 13.6 σ = 13.6/4 = 3.4 µ = 85.2 + 3.4 + 3.4 = 92 34% of data Median Mean 13.5% ( + ) ( + 2) 98.8 Q1 = - .675 = 92 - .675(3.4) = 89.71 Q3 = + .675 = 92 + .675(3.4) = 94.30 Chapter 6 Page 13 of 14 Practice problems page 195 Given:µ = 52 = 11 41.) 2500 Students 68 - 95 - 99.7 Inflection change point Inflection change point 34% students 0.15% 2.35% students 13.5% students 30 41 19 2.5th 16th percentile 25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile 84th percentile 97.5th percentile 99.85th percentile 9% 34% students 25% 25% 9% 2.35% students 0.15% 13.5% students Q1 (45) 52 Q3 63 (59) 74 85 41a.) Average Score = Mean = Median = 52 41b.) Score 52 or more = 34% + 13.5% + 2.35% + .15% = 50% of students (.5 X 2500 = 1250 students) 41c.) Score 41 - 63 = 34% +34% = 68% of students (.68 X 2500 = 1700 students) shown shaded 41d.) Score 63 or more = 13.5% + 2.35% + .15% = 16% of students (.16 X 2500 = 400 students) 42a.) Score 30 - 74 = 13.5% + 34% + 34% + 13.5% = 95% of students (.95 X 2500 = 2375 students) 42b.) Score 30 or less = .15% + 2.35% = 2.5% of students (.025 X 2500 = 63 students) shown shaded Chapter 6 Page 14 of 14 42c.) Score 19 or less = .15% of 2500students (.0015 X 2500 = 4 students) 43a.) Score Q1 = µ - .675σ = 52 - .675(11) = 45 points 43b.) Score Q3 = µ + .675σ = 52 + .675(11) = 59 points (IQR = Q3 - Q1 = 59 - 45 = 14 points) 44a.) Score 52 = 50th percentile 44b.) Score 63 = 84th percentile 44c.) skip this question 44d.) Score 85 = 99.85th percentile this questions wasn’t asked but I included it for practice