Supplementary Methods Mixed effects models testing species’ associations with native species richness and P Using mixed effects logistic regressions, we modelled the probability of occurrence for each species in relation to native species richness and sqrt-transformed P. These two explanatory variables were mildly correlated for some species (as indicated by appropriate multi-level analyses), so we modelled them separately for all species. The response variables were binary, but instead of using raw presence/absence responses, we identified the quadrats where a species made up ≥5% of the relative abundance and considered these “occurrences” for the species. This removed instances where the species was present in very low numbers (mainly singletons), and therefore captured each species preferred conditions more clearly. Some species were too rare to model, so we placed a threshold of at least 25 “occurrences” across the dataset, leaving 59 testable species including 46 native species and 13 alien species. For each species, only data from remnants where the species was recorded were included in each model, i.e. we assumed that species could be absent from remnants for reasons unrelated to measured contemporary abiotic factors. All models included remnant and site as nested random effects and binomial errors were employed with a logit link function. For each model, the coefficient for richness or sqrt(P) was recorded, as was the significance of the coefficient based on Wald tests. Null modelling details For count data, the ‘quasiswapcount’ algorithm (Oksanen et al. 2014) was applied, which constrains the number of individuals per quadrat (row totals in the community data matrix) to observed values and also constrains the absolute abundance of each species in each remnant (column totals in the community data matrix). This constrained null model also maintains the observed number of zeros (absences) in each randomised community data matrix. By retaining species’ overall abundances, rare species remain rare and common species remain common. Maintaining the number of absences ensures that individuals from each species are not unrealistically “spread” over many communities to achieve the other constraints. For presenceabsence data we used the swap algorithm (Miklós & Podani 2004) that also constrains row and column totals in each community matrix. Because the data are binary, the constrained row totals mean that observed quadrat richness values are maintained and the constrained column totals maintain each species’ frequency of occurrence. Many neighbour species were rare in the dataset and C-scores calculated from randomised communities included many zeros when these species were included. We therefore limited our calculation of C-score effect sizes to neighbour species that were present in at least 10% of the 90 quadrats in a given remnant. In addition, because the null models randomized species occurrences across entire remnants, they often “placed” target and neighbor species in sites where they were not recorded in the observed dataset. In these cases their observed C-scores were zero by default, resulting in many negative effect sizes of similar magnitude. Therefore, we only considered effect sizes generated from species pairs where both the target and neighbor species were present at the site in the observed dataset. Assessing the importance of absolute versus hierarchy trait variables We modelled all combinations of absolute and hierarchy variables for each species. All models also included the site-scale P variable, and its interaction with hierarchy variables. In models with interactions we ensured that interactions were only ever included when main terms were also included. Given these various candidate models, we then assessed the relative importance (RI) of each trait variable by calculating how many high-ranking models (based on AICc) the variable was included in. Trait variables that were very important were consistently selected in high-ranking models. From these RI values we selected the combination of absolute trait distance and trait hierarchy variables to investigate further for a given target species. Table S1. Data sources for seed mass measurements. “Measured” indicates seed masses that were measured in this study, “genus” indicates where the seed mass of a congener was used and “NA” indicates species for which no reliable seed mass value could be obtained (these are mostly very rare species in the dataset). The remaining were sourced from publications as indicated. Species Data source Species Data source Actinobole uliginosum measured Lolium perenne measured Aira cupaniana measured Lomandra effusa NA Angianthus tomentosus NA Lysimachia arvensis measured Arctotheca calendula measured Medicago minima measured Aristida contorta measured Medicago polymorpha measured Arthropodium curvipes measured Menkea sphaerocarpa NA Arthropodium dyeri measured Mesembryanthemum crystallinum measured Austrostipa elegantissima measured Mesembryanthemum nodiflorum NA Austrostipa macalpinei NA Millotia myosotidifolia measured Avena barbata measured Monachather paradoxus measured Bellida graminea measured Monoculus monstrosus measured Blennospora drummondii measured Moraea flaccida NA Borya sphaerocephala NA Moraea setifolia measured Brachyscome ciliaris genus Myriocephalus guerinae measured Brachyscome iberidifolia measured Neurachne alopecuroidea NA Brachyscome perpusilla measured Nicotiana rotundifolia measured Brassica tournefortii measured Omphalolappula concava measured Briza maxima measured Ophioglossum lusitanicum NA Bromus diandrus measured Parentucellia latifolia measured Bromus madritensis measured Parietaria cardiostegia NA Brunonia australis (Moles & Westoby 2004) Pentameris airoides measured Bulbine semibarbata measured Petrorhagia dubia measured Caesia micrantha (Moles & Westoby 2004) Pheladenia deformis (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Caladenia denticulata (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Phyllangium sulcatum measured Caladenia roei (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Plantago coronopus (Moles & Westoby 2004) Calandrinia corrigioloides (Moles & Westoby 2004) Plantago debilis measured Calandrinia eremaea measured Podolepis canescens measured Calandrinia granulifera measured Podolepis capillaris (Moles & Westoby 2004) Calocephalus multiflorus NA Podolepis lessonii measured Calotis hispidula measured Podotheca angustifolia (Moles & Westoby 2004) Species Data source Species Data source Calotis multicaulis measured Podotheca gnaphalioides measured Carrichtera annua (Moles & Westoby 2004) Pogonolepis muelleriana measured Centrolepis aristata measured Polycarpon tetraphyllum NA Centrolepis drummondiana NA Poranthera microphylla measured Cephalipterum drummondii measured Prasophyllum sp. (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Ceratogyne obionoides measured Ptilotus declinatus NA Chamaescilla versicolor measured Ptilotus drummondii NA Cheilanthes austrotenuifolia NA Ptilotus exaltatus (Moles & Westoby 2004) Chthonocephalus pseudevax measured Ptilotus gaudichaudii measured Cotula bipinnata NA Ptilotus polystachyus (Moles & Westoby 2004) Crassula closiana genus Ptilotus spathulatus NA Crassula colorata measured Quinetia urvillei measured Cyanicula amplexans (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Rapistrum rugosum measured Cyanicula gemmata (Arditti & Ghani 2000) Rhodanthe chlorocephala measured Dampiera lavandulacea (Moles & Westoby 2004) Rhodanthe citrina measured Daucus glochidiatus measured Rhodanthe humboldtiana measured Dianella revoluta (Moles & Westoby 2004) Rhodanthe laevis measured Dichopogon capillipes measured Rhodanthe manglesii measured Drosera erythrorhiza NA Rhodanthe polycephala measured Drosera glanduligera NA Rhodanthe pygmaea measured Echium plantagineum measured Rhodanthe spicata measured Ehrharta longiflora measured Romulea rosea measured Emex australis measured Rostraria pumila (Moles & Westoby 2004) Enchylaena tomentosa (Moles & Westoby 2004) Rytidosperma caespitosum (Moles & Westoby 2004) Erodium aureum measured Schoenia cassiniana measured Erodium botrys measured Schoenus nanus measured Erodium cicutarium measured Senecio glossanthus measured Erodium cygnorum measured Silene nocturna measured Erymophyllum ramosum measured Sonchus oleraceus measured Euphorbia drummondii measured Stackhousia monogyna NA Gilberta tenuifolia measured Stenopetalum lineare measured Gilruthia osbornei measured Thysanotus manglesianus NA Gnephosis tenuissima measured Thysanotus rectantherus measured Gonocarpus nodulosus measured Trachymene cyanopetala measured Goodenia berardiana measured Trachymene ornata measured Goodenia krauseana (genus; Moles & Westoby 2004) Trachymene pilosa measured Goodenia occidentalis measured Trifolium glomeratum measured Goodenia pusilliflora measured Trifolium hirtum NA Species Data source Species Data source Haloragis odontocarpa measured Trifolium subterraneum (Moles & Westoby 2004) Hedypnois rhagadioloides measured Triglochin isingiana measured Hordeum leporinum measured Urospermum picroides measured Hyalosperma demissum measured Ursinia anthemoides measured Hyalosperma glutinosum subsp. glutinosum measured Velleia cycnopotamica measured Hyalosperma glutinosum subsp. venustum measured Velleia rosea measured Hydrocotyle pilifera measured Vulpia bromoides measured Hypochaeris glabra measured Vulpia myuros measured Isoetopsis graminifolia measured Wahlenbergia capensis measured Isotropis juncea NA Wahlenbergia gracilenta measured Lamarckia aurea measured Waitzia acuminata measured Lawrencella davenportii measured Waitzia nitida measured Lawrencella rosea measured Wurmbea densiflorus measured Levenhookia dubia measured Wurmbea drummondii NA Levenhookia leptantha NA Wurmbea sp. Paynes Find NA Lobelia gibbosa (genus; Moles & Westoby 2004) Zaluzianskya divaricata measured Zygophyllum iodocarpum measured Table S2. Results from the incidence-based SWAP null-modelling approach (provided for comparison with Table 1 in the main text). Bolding indicates the trait variable that had the highest relative importance for a given trait and a given target species. “Not tested” indicates situations where the trait rank for the target species was very low or very high, resulting in absolute and hierarchy variables that were almost identical. In these cases only the hierarchy variables were examined. Target Species # Sites / # Trait Remnants Trait Rank Relative Importance Abs. Distance Hierarchy EXPLOITERS Arctotheca calendula (Asteraceae) Avena barbata (Poaceae) Ehrharta longiflora (Poaceae) 15/56 41/56 39/56 0.17 39/10 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 0.82 0.20 0.62 0.17 0.29 28/7 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 29/54 54/54 54/54 0.01 Not Tested Not Tested 0.97 0.99 0.73 19/5 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 52/53 47/53 44/53 Not Tested 0.01 0.11 0.99 0.99 0.84 33/7 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 41/54 17/54 7/54 0.24 0.00 0.37 0.36 0.99 0.63 52/9 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 20/55 25/55 13/55 0.17 0.03 0.66 0.52 0.97 0.33 24/5 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 5/54 28/54 14/54 0.19 0.16 0.31 0.32 0.50 0.69 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 56/56 9/56 18/56 Not Tested 0.00 0.26 0.36 1.00 0.64 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 27/56 32/56 52/56 0.43 1.00 Not Tested 0.38 0.00 COEXISTERS Aira cupaniana (Poaceae) Pentameris airoides (Poaceae) Zaluzianskya divaricata (Scrophulariaceae) NATIVES Calandrinia eremaea (Portulacaceae) Trachymene cyanopetala (Araliaceae) 57/10 51/10 0.88 Waitzia acuminata (Asteraceae) 51/9 SLA Max. Height Seed Mass 4/56 45/56 19/56 Not Tested 0.12 0.63 0.92 0.88 0.36 Table S3. The number of quadrat occurrences recorded in 2010 (dry) and 2011 (wet) for target and neighbour species across the three northern remnants included in the temporal analysis. A total of 270 quadrats were sampled each year (in the same site locations within remnants). Target species are indicated in bold with their “type” in brackets: N = native, C = coexister and E = exploiter. Note: On average, each remnant received 100 mm less rainfall in 2010 than in 2011. Native species 2010 2011 Difference Actinobole uliginosum 27 40 13 Austrostipa elegantissima 93 78 -15 Blennospora drummondii 13 15 2 Brachyscome perpusilla 38 37 -1 Bulbine semibarbata 3 16 13 Calandrinia eremaea (N) 23 141 118 Calandrinia granulifera 1 13 12 Calotis hispidula 19 56 37 Calotis multicaulis 24 41 17 Cephalipterum drummondii 31 35 4 Chthonocephalus pseudevax 0 22 22 Crassula closiana 0 16 16 Crassula colorata 65 208 143 Daucus glochidiatus 15 27 12 Erodium cygnorum 95 145 50 Euphorbia drummondii 19 0 -19 Gilberta tenuifolia 14 9 -5 Gnephosis tenuissima 16 15 -1 Gonocarpus nodulosus 0 13 13 Goodenia berardiana 57 79 22 Goodenia pusilliflora 5 12 7 Hyalosperma glutinosum 65 69 4 Hydrocotyle pilifera 6 34 28 Lawrencella rosea 30 30 0 Phyllangium sulcatum 4 21 17 Plantago debilis 45 49 4 Podolepis canescens 46 38 -8 Podolepis lessonii 20 19 -1 Pogonolepis muelleriana 57 62 5 Ptilotus gaudichaudii 31 45 14 Rhodanthe laevis 8 30 22 Rhodanthe polycephala 31 29 -2 Rhodanthe spicata 48 30 -18 Schoenia cassiniana 4 11 7 Schoenus nanus 0 24 24 Stenopetalum lineare 7 15 8 Trachymene cyanopetala (N) 65 111 46 Trachymene ornata 16 44 28 Velleia cycnopotamica 2 14 12 Velleia rosea 35 33 -2 Wahlenbergia gracilenta 2 18 16 Waitzia acuminate (N) 103 100 -3 Waitzia nitida 126 110 -16 Aira cupaniana (C) 15 37 22 Arctotheca calendula (E) 45 78 33 Avena barbata (E) 34 43 9 Bromus rubens 23 37 14 Echium plantagineum 45 48 3 Ehrharta longiflora (E) 10 26 16 Erodium aureum 5 11 6 Hedypnois rhagadioloides 12 29 17 Hypochaeris glabra 66 74 8 Lolium perenne 9 14 5 Medicago minima 7 10 3 Medicago polymorpha 8 13 5 Mesembryanthemum crystallinum 0 15 15 Monoculus monstrosus 25 39 14 Moraea setifolia 32 43 11 Parentucellia latifolia 11 18 7 Pentameris airoides (C) 98 131 33 Petrorhagia dubia 34 60 26 Silene nocturna 1 13 12 Sonchus oleraceus 10 18 8 Trifolium subterraneum 18 18 0 Urospermum picroides 3 10 7 Vulpia myuros 37 74 37 Zaluzianskya divaricate (C) 2 34 32 Alien species Figure S1. Plots of significant relationships between seed mass hierarchies and segregation (C-score effect sizes) for Coexisters: (a) A. cupaniana, (b) P. airoides and (c) Z. divaricata, and Natives: (d) C. eremaea, (e) T. cyanopetala and (f) W. acuminata. Grey points are mean effect sizes for each neighbour species and grey bars are +/- 1 SE. Fitted lines were derived from intercept and slope coefficients from averaged trait hierarchy models. Dashed lines are 95% confidence intervals that capture uncertainty in both the slope and the intercept estimates. Zero on the X-axis shows the position of the target species in the seed mass hierarchy. Figure S2. Ordination plots (non-metric multi-dimensional scaling) illustrating changes in composition from 2010 (drier growing season) to 2011 (wetter growing season). Each point is a site in a given year and colors indicate the remnant that each site was in. Arrows point from sites in 2010 to the same site in 2011. Large points and thick arrows indicate high P sites (those with steep P gradients) and small points and thin arrows indicate sites typical of low P (natural) conditions. Three dissimilarity metrics were investigated: (a) Bray-Curtis which incorporates abundance information, (b) Sørensen which is similar to Bray-Curtis but considers only presence/absence information and (c) Raup-Crick which is also based on presence/absence, but accounts for richness differences using a null modelling approach (Chase & Myers 2011). Figure S3. Same plots as shown in Figure 6, but using the incidence based null model to estimate segregation (instead of the abundance-based null model). Upper panels are coefficient plots from models assessing changes in segregation between the drier 2010 and wetter 2011 growing seasons, assessed using data from three northern remnants that were surveyed in both years. Points are averaged coefficient estimates and bars are corresponding 95% CIs. High P sites were those with average mean phosphorus levels >5.5 mg g-1, with other sites considered low P sites. Lower panels are associated plots of mean (+/1 SE) segregation values per site in each year. Lines join sites where the target species was present in both years. Figure S4. Plots exploring relationships among seed mass, probability of occurrence and species’ abundances: (a) ln(seed mass) versus probability of occurrence, (b) ln(seed mass) versus mean species’ ln(abundance) and (c) mean species’ ln(abundance) versus probability of occurrence. In all plots point symbols follow the legend in (a). The fitted lines in (b) are from basic linear regressions fitted separately to native and alien species. These plots show data from all species that had at least 10 occurrences across the dataset, and for which seed mass data were available. Figure S5. Pairwise scatterplots of species’ mean ln(SLA) mean ln(seed mass) and ln(maximum height). Solid red points are alien species and hollow grey points are natives. Red splines are loess smoothers fitted to all species. Spearman’s rho correlation values for each pairwise combination are also shown. References cited in supplementary information 1. Arditti J. & Ghani A.K.A. (2000). Tansley Review No. 110. Numerical and Physical Properties of Orchid Seeds and Their Biological Implications. New Phytol., 145, 367-421. 2. Chase J.M. & Myers J.A. (2011). Disentangling the importance of ecological niches from stochastic processes across scales. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 366, 2351-2363. 3. Miklós I. & Podani J. (2004). Randomization of presence-absence matrices: comments and new algorithms. Ecology, 85, 86-92. 4. Moles A.T. & Westoby M. (2004). Seedling survival and seed size: a synthesis of the literature. J. Ecol., 92, 372-383. 5. Oksanen J., Blanchet F.G., Kindt R., Legendre P., Minchin P.R., O'Hara R.B., Simpson G.L., Solymos P., Stevens M.H. & Wagner H. (2014). Vegan: Community Ecology Package. R package version 2.0-10. http://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=vegan.