To: workshop participants PREDICT October 15, 2015
Date:
August 19, 2015
Topic:
PREDICT meeting
Contact:
N. van Os
Tel: 06-51341450
Dear participant,
Firstly, thank you for your willingness to participate in the PREDICT workshop to be held on October 15 in conference room 4.10 of the safety region South Holland
South, Romboutslaan 105 in Dordrecht.
The aim of the workshop is to arrive at an initial assessment of the tools developed by various partners in the framework of the PREDICT project. Using your assessment, the PREDICT tools will be further developed such that in October 2016, the tools can be tested in an exercise setting.
To regard the use of the tools from a common frame of reference, for the PREDICT project we are working with some fixed scenarios.
The Dutch scenario is that of a flood of the Alblasserwaard due to a breach in Gorinchem.
Most of you are already familiar with the scenario, but for completeness is a global case study is attached to this invitation.
The a ppendix contains an overview of the three test cases that are used in PREDICT.
To ensure that the PREDICT tools improve the decision-making processes, we want to use the upcoming workshop for a "cognitive task analysis" (CTA).
Our goal is to get an insight into the steps of thought and information processing that is required to arrive at recommendations and decisions.
In preparation we ask for you to imagine that you have approximately four days before an expected flood peak is expected, you are drafted for an ROT meeting.
This project received a contribution from the European Union from the
Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Development under grant agreement no. 607 697

The operational leader has, given the suspected breach location, a number of questions:
In general:
What are the (cascade) effects of a dike breach in Gorinchem over time and consequence (effect tree) within and outside the region?
More specifically:
What are the chances of a timely and successful evacuation, related to the availability of vital functions such as transport and communications and how much time we have is available?
Under what circumstances do non evacuated residents will have to stay in the area.
What does this mean for the period within which they must be saved and then where to start first?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of early "shutdown" of vital services such as electricity, ICT, water, transport routes for the immediate security, the effectiveness of evacuation and / or rescue and recovery afterwards?
What are the consequences elsewhere in the country?
Is it possible / desirable and useful to protect certain facilities from the effects of flooding?
Which areas lend themselves well and which are not suited for sheltering evacuees, relief workers etc. stabling considering availability critical infrastructure in that area.
It is not the intention that we will answer all these questions extensively. However, for the benefit of the CTA, the first part of the workshop is led by an operational leader ROT, and will simulate a situation where one or more of these questions are addressed.
In preparation we ask that you already think after what factual information you would need in your own organization to answer such questions, whether this is actually available and what questions you might have while for others.
For the purpose of the analysis, this part of the session will be recorded.
We kindly ask you, to let us know in advance, if you have any objections against being recorded.
This project received a contribution from the European Union from the
Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Development under grant agreement no. 607 697

The program of the day is as follows:
09:00 meeting starts with a short introduction of the project, goals of the day, and working method
09:15 case discussion on the basis of the questions asked conducted operational Leader
10:15 evaluation decision in 1st block
11:00 break
11:15 generic introduction Tools / PREDICT / questionnaires
12:00 lunch
12:45 individual introduction of tools in 2 subgroups.
subgroup 1 (Dutch): SBR developed by Thales-NL subgroup 2 (in English): Myriad developed by Thales-NL
14:30 break
14:45 structured feedback on presented instruments and filling in evaluation form
(this form is sent to you separately, shortly before the workshop
)
15:30 Short presentation on processing feedback, other developments PREDICT and outlook 2016
16:00 end meeting
For questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Sincerely,
N. van Os
Veiligheidsregio ZHZ
Appendix: - Scenario breach Gorinchem
- General information Predict testcases
This project received a contribution from the European Union from the
Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Development under grant agreement no. 607 697