International Biometric Society
ESTIMATE CAUSE SPECIFIC SURVIVAL IN SOFT TISSUE RETROPERITONEAL
SARCOMAS IN THE PRESENCE OF COMPETING RISKS: RELATIVE AND NET
SURVIVAL
Annalisa Orenti1, Ilaria Ardoino1, Elia Biganzoli1, Patrizia Boracchi1
1
Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Italy
Soft Tissue Sarcomas (STSs) are a rare and heterogeneous group of malignancies that
originate from mesenchymal cells almost everywhere in the body. To evaluate therapyrelated benefit, disease specific survival is surely of interest, being related to the mortality
associated with the specific cancer diagnosis and disease evolution. Such a probability
measure refers to the hypothetical situation of cause removal, i.e. only the cause of interest
is acting.
The naïve classical approach to estimate net/cause specific survival is based only on the
events attributable to the disease, while times to other death causes are censored. This is
appropriate only under independence among causes of death.
However, from the statistical viewpoint, cause specific survival refers to the context of
‘competing risks’ and its estimation to a non identifiable problem, due to the interrelation
among different causes of death.
In population based cancer survival studies, relative survival methods were proposed for
estimating the excess mortality with respect to that would be expected for the population to
which patients belong, matched for sex, age, and year of birth. The observed excess
mortality is assumed to be cancer related, capturing both directly and indirectly related death
events. Although this approach does not provide a direct estimation of net survival, under
specific assumptions can be interpreted as a net survival. However, this is not always holding
and, in the presence of a reliable classification of the causes of death relative survival should
be compared with a direst estimate of net survival.
Several non parametric estimator based on copula functions have been proposed, but they
are rarely used in clinical application, mainly because of the lack of dedicated software. The
copula allow to specify the bivariate distribution among causes of death, leaving unspecified
the marginal ones and several copula structures have been proposed so far. An advantage
of these approaches is to provide an estimate of association among times to different causes
of death, which could be itself of clinical interest. The choice of the appropriate copula
structure is mainly based on clinical considerations since, in the presence of competing risks,
it is not possible to assesse the goodness of fit. Nevertheless published simulation studies
showed the robustness of Archimedean copulas.
The aim of the present work is to compare relative and net sarcoma survival estimates in a
clinical-epidemiology observational cohort setting in which the classification of causes of
death is reliable, to have insights on other studies on the same pathology where the causes
of death is not available.
192 adult patients with retroperitoneal STS admitted at the National Cancer Institute in Milan
from January 1985 to September 2007 who underwent surgery on primary localized disease
were included in the present analysis. The results highlighted that patients who underwent a
diagnosis of retroperitoneal sarcoma had an excess mortality. The relative survival Poisson
regression model showed that age, surgical margins, grading and tumour size are prognostic
factors. These results were compared to the net survival curve estimated by Copula graphic
estimator with pertinent confidence intervals.
International Biometric Conference, Florence, ITALY, 6 – 11 July 2014