Special Function Rooms and Features Fall Away as Housing Market Continues Slow Recovery Several residential architecture construction sectors begin to stabilize, improving business conditions at residential architecture design firms. By Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA AIA Chief Economist The U.S. housing market is starting to gain traction. Still, households have remained hesitant to add space to their homes through special function rooms, with a few exceptions such as home offices and mud rooms for the storage of everyday items. Home features and products that are attracting attention are generally focused on energy efficiency or accessibility around the home, as well as wireless systems and low maintenance, sustainable products. These are some of the key findings from the AIA’s Home Design Trends Survey, covering activity during the second quarter of 2012. Business conditions continue to trend up for residential architects, as design billings increased for the second consecutive month, the first two-quarter increase in billings since 2007. Even though the growth slowed somewhat in the second quarter, inquiries for new projects remained strong. Project backlogs – the amount of design work in-house and under contract – have been increasing very slowly, but currently are at their highest level since early 2008. And while design work for improvements to existing homes remains very strong, there are signs that key construction sectors, including entry-level homes, trade-up homes, and custom and luxury homes, are beginning to stabilize and may soon move back to an expansion mode. Optional special function rooms clustered in a few categories Even though home sizes appear to be slowly increasing in most markets and in most housing segments, optional special function rooms are limited to just a few key uses. Over a third of residential architects participating in the Home Design Trends Survey identified home offices as the most popular special function room at present. With the continued popularity of telecommuting, with many workers looking for the option of catching up on work on nights and weekends, and with a growing share of the labor force working on a self-employed or contract basis, home offices continue to be a priority. Two other areas were reported to be popular special functions areas of the home. Over one-in-five residential architects selected mud rooms/drop zones (for backpacks, outerwear, or even personal electronics) as the most popular special function room, while almost as many respondents selected outdoor living areas/outdoor rooms as the most popular. Both of these selections reflect the growing informality in lifestyle for the typical household (figure 1). Even these areas of the home are not seeing as much an increase in popularity as they were seeing a year ago. Likewise, the popularity score for homes offices also declined a bit. Scores for mud rooms/drop zones increased slightly over the past year. Many of the popular special function rooms seen during the housing boom have all but left the scene during this past downturn. For example, almost 40 percent of residential architects reported that media rooms/home theaters are declining in popularity now, while only 12 percent reported them to be increasing in popularity. Likewise, 28 percent of respondents reported exercise/fitness/sauna spaces to be declining in popularity, with only 13 percent reporting increases. Even interior greenhouses, which might be expected to be gaining in popularity with the renewed interest in gardening and eating locally grown foods, are declining in popularity (figure 2). Home features promote sustainability and accessibility As with trends toward simplicity in special function rooms, household interest in special features in the home tends to focus on a few key pragmatic objectives: energy efficiency, and making the home more accessible for an aging population. Merely adding some insulation in the attic remains a hugely popular home feature, as over two-thirds of respondents report it to be increasing in popularity and hardly any see it decreasing. Most of the other popular special features deal with improved accessibility: a first floor master bedroom, ramps/elevators (including adding a shaft for a future elevator), easy-to-use features for handles and faucets, and non-slip floor surfaces. Many of these features fall under the aging-in-place category, which allow older residents to remain in their home as they grow older. As the Baby Boom generation reaches retirement age, they are more concerned with these home features. But it’s not just about homeowner demographics. Given the lack of residential mobility caused by the plummeting property values seen in the housing crash of several years ago, many aging households plan to continue living in their current home for the foreseeable future (figure 3). Popular home systems at present are heavily focused on sustainability. Energy management systems top the list of features growing the most in popularity, with 52 percent of respondents reporting them to be growing in popularity, and only 4 percent reporting declining popularity. Solar panels, geothermal heating and cooling systems, and water reclamation systems are all reported to be increasing in popularity, although they are not mainstream yet in most markets. Wireless telecommunications and data systems are just as popular as energy management systems. The growing popularity of home offices may be generating more interest in wireless technology. The two systems that have seen the greatest gains in popularity are back-up power generation systems, and electrical docking stations. Growing interest in back-up power generation is no doubt resulting from the recent unpredictable weather patterns throughout the country that have left millions without power for days at a times. Growing interest in electrical docking stations reflects the increased popularity in electrical vehicles; still limited, but building momentum (figure 4). Home products with low maintenance requirements top the list of the most popular items. Synthetic and engineered materials also remain quite popular, in part due to their low maintenance characteristics. Other popular home products fall into the sustainability category: energy efficient products such as triple-glazed windows, tankless or point-of-use water heaters, water saving or conserving devices such as low-flush toilets, and recycled or salvaged materials all are high on the product popularity list. Enhanced lighting/task lighting and thermal moisture control systems aimed at mold reduction also were rated as being increasingly popular for households. (figure 5). Business conditions trending up Residential architecture firms have been reporting generally negative business conditions in the AIA’s Home Design Trends Survey since the middle of 2007. However, the past two quarters have seen relatively healthy gains, with the strongest billings scores since the second quarter of 2007. Since these figures are not adjusted for seasonal variation, there may be a back slide in the third or fourth quarters, even though general market conditions continue to improve. Inquiries for new work have strengthened significantly over the past two years. The inquiries index saw slower growth in the second quarter, most likely because of seasonal trends. The general upward movement in inquiries suggests that billings should also continue to move up in the coming quarters (figure 6). One sign of improving business conditions is the trend in firm backlogs. Prior to the housing downturn, residential architecture firms were averaging about five months of project backlogs, meaning that they could keep their current staff employed for about five months with no additional project activity. During the heart of the downturn, backlogs declined to an average of under three months. Backlogs have been slowly climbing back up, reaching 3.8 months on average during the second quarter of this year. As conditions continue to improve, backlogs should continue to trend up, but are unlikely to hit the levels they did during the housing boom, at least on an ongoing basis (figure 7). Residential architecture firms in most regions have followed the national trend of a general upward movement in business conditions. The one major exception has been residential architecture firms in the Northeast, which reported fairly steep declines in billings during the second half of 2011 and again in the second quarter of 2012. Firms in the other three major regions have reported healthy growth in billings through the first half of this year (figure 8). Improvements to existing homes remain the strongest sector of the housing market. For both kitchen and bath remodels as well as additions and alterations to existing homes, over half of respondents report market conditions to be improving, while fewer than 10 percent report them to be weakening. However, there are finally signs of market conditions stabilizing for several of the new construction categories. The first-time buyer/affordable, move-up, custom and luxury home sectors are all seeing a growing number of respondents reporting market conditions to be improving. While all three still have negative scores, these sectors may be nearing their bottom. In contrast, market condition scores for townhouse/condominiums and second/vacation homes still remain quite negative. For townhouse/condos, fewer than 15 percent of respondents report market conditions to be improving, while over 40 percent indicate that they are still weakening. For second/vacation homes, almost 60 percent report continuing weakening, while fewer than 12 percent report improvement. These two market sectors are likely to be the last to see a national recovery (figure 9). Recent Related: Turnaround in Home Sizes, In-Home Amenities, and Property Enhancements Kitchens and Baths Continue to Attract Design Focus Community Design Trends Emphasize Infill Development Conditions Stabilizing, with Focus on Energy Efficiency Reference: Visit the Residential Knowledge Community homepage on AIA KnowledgeNet. The HDTS panel is open only to principals, partners, or other firm leaders of AIA member–owned firms with a residential specialization. Apply to join the HDTS panel by completing a brief background information form on your firm here. Visit the AIA Research Resource Center. Watch Architect Live: Residential Design-Build. Back to AIArchitect September 14, 2012 Go to the current issue of AIArchitect