Density and Accessibility, with Growing Interest in Neighborhood
Amenities, Define Community Design Trends
As the housing market improves, households look for simplicity and affordability in home styles
By Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA
AIA Chief Economist
As the housing market continues its recovery,
households’ evolving needs are turning towards more
urban and accessible types of development. The security
that comes with relative residential isolation is giving way
to accessibility to jobs, commercial opportunities, and
transportation options. Age-restricted communities are
losing popularity to more diverse neighborhoods.
Households are looking for home exteriors that are low
maintenance, relatively simple and sustainable, yet
Illustration: Randy Lyhus, 2012.
encourage integration with the broader urban fabric that
typically occurs within an infill context.
These are some of the main findings from the AIA’s Home
Design Trends Survey for the third quarter of 2012, which
focused on contemporary neighborhood and community
design trends. While households remain cautious in their
housing decisions, the residential markets are finally
seeing healthy growth. Billings at residential architecture
firms have increased each quarter since the beginning of
2012, and are currently growing in every region of the
country. The home improvement market remains very
healthy, and an increasing number of new construction
Q3 HDTS Graphs
segments are finally seeing growth.
Density and accessibility driving development
In lieu of the large greenfield housing developments that
were common during the pre-recession housing boom,
home building is occurring on a much smaller scale today.
Current production levels are only about a third of what
they were during the peak of the market in early 2006,
and less than half of what they are expected to be when
the market fully recovers. As such, development activities
are significantly scaled back in most markets across the
country.
Higher-density infill development remains a very
attractive option in this economic environment. Many
infrastructure development costs are reduced or
eliminated in an infill setting. Also, other consumer
community preferences—access to public transportation,
commercial options, and employment—are generally
improved with infill development. While higher density is
viewed as a positive for many households, they are also
looking for some of the amenities associated with lowerdensity locations. Residential architects noted that
community gardens, dedicated open space, and more
recreational opportunities integrated into the
development were among the top elements growing in
popularity. (Figure 1)
Residential architects also value generational diversity in
their projects. While multigenerational housing
opportunities were seen as growing in popularity, agerestricted communities were one of the few design
preferences that architects noted as declining in
popularity. Subsidized and affordable homes included in
developments, as well as greater diversity of home styles,
homes sizes, and lot sizes within communities, were also
in the second tier of neighborhood characteristics
growing in popularity.
Within these broader neighborhood and community
design parameters, home styles have demonstrated a fair
degree of stability. Front and side porches, which offer
greater connection to the neighborhood, remain popular
features. Simpler exterior detailing and single-story
homes also remain generally popular. Somewhat in
contrast, contemporary (as opposed to more traditional)
home styles have attracted some renewed interest.
(Figure 2)
Home exteriors reflect the current interest in simplicity.
Far and away the most popular feature in this category is
the use of low-maintenance and durable materials for
home exteriors. Somewhat related is the trend toward
simpler exteriors using fewer materials, as well as fireresistant exterior materials. Sustainable roofing is also
gaining in popularity. Both cool roofs with solar reflective
characteristics and the use of sustainable roofing
materials are reported as popular options. (Figure 3)
Business conditions turning up
After a prolonged downturn beginning in 2008,
residential architects have been reporting healthy levels
of revenue gains, beginning with the first quarter of 2012.
Though the quarter-to-quarter comparisons in revenue
are not seasonally adjusted, they show strong
improvements from year-ago comparisons. Inquiries for
new project activity also show healthy growth, indicating
that the gains in billings in recent quarters should
continue for the coming quarters. (Figure 4)
This increase in workloads has also shown up as
increased backlogs at residential architecture firms.
Indicating the amount of work currently in-house and
under contract, backlogs are typically measured as the
number of months these projects would keep current
staff fully employed if no new work came in.
Architecture firms were reporting average backlogs of 3.7
months in the third quarter, well below the levels seen
during the last upturn but well above the depths of the
downturn in 2009 and 2010. During the first three
quarters of 2012, backlogs have averaged just over 3.6
months, compared to less than 3.2 months for the first
three quarters of 2011. (Figure 5)
Evidence of a broad-based upturn in residential design
activity can be seen in regional revenue trends. In
aggregate, firms in each of the four major U.S. Census
regions reported revenue growth in the third quarter
relative to the second quarter. Firms in the Midwest in
particular reported strong revenue growth in the third
quarter, while firms in the long-suffering West also
reported healthy conditions. These trends are significant,
since a disproportionate share of home building activity
occurs in these two regions. (Figure 6)
The upturn in the residential markets can also be seen in
the number of residential sectors that reported growth
this quarter. While the major home improvement sectors
(additions and alterations, as well as kitchen and bath
remodeling) have been relatively strong throughout the
downturn, in the third quarter of 2011 all of the major
new-construction sectors were still in steep decline,
according to residential architects. By the third quarter of
2012, there was significant progress in design billings for
new home building activity. Design activity for move-up
homes (among owners who are trading up to a more
expensive house), as well as for entry-level homes for
first-time buyers, were both reported as increasing
slightly, the first time either of these sectors has seen
revenue growth since early 2006.
Revenue from design activity for custom and luxury
homes was stabilizing in the third quarter, while the
townhouse and condo markets have seen only a slight
waning. Second and vacation home markets are still
mired in steep decline. (Figure 7)
Recent Related:
Visit the Housing Knowledge Community homepage on AIA KnowledgeNet.
The HDTS panel is open only to principals, partners, and other firm leaders of AIA member–owned firms with a
residential specialization. Apply to join the HDTS panel by completing a brief background information form on your
firm here.
Visit the AIA Research Resource Center.
Reference:
Special Function Rooms and Features Fall Away as Housing Market Continues Slow Recovery
Turnaround in Home Sizes, In-Home Amenities, and Property Enhancements
Kitchens and Baths Continue to Attract Design Focus
Community Design Trends Emphasize Infill Development
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