Policy Research Fund Proposal
Title: The impact of organised crime on governance in developing countries
Key Policy Issue/Research Question
What influence does Organised Crime have on political settlements in 3 developing countries – and
what impact does this have on the poor?
What are the key questions to be addressed?
1) What influence do Organised Criminal Groups have on the political settlement in 3
developing countries?
2) What are the observable developmental impacts of this influence, for example in terms of
outputs and outcomes in the security and justice sectors?
What is the expected duration/timeframe for delivery – to a maximum of 12 months
January – October 2011
Proposed Budget
TBC approx £90,000
How will the research contribute to;a) new knowledge and insights to inform policy and
b) build on existing studies and research knowledge.
a) Academic research on the effects of organised crime on governance is virtually non-existent.
Despite a wide range of criminological literature, and some consideration of organised crime
on the fringes of the Governance and Conflict literature, there are few if any peer reviewed
studies which look specifically at the impact of organised crime on governance. Too many
sources draw on journalistic or insubstantial evidence to make sweeping assertions about
the threat posed by organised crime. Although the World Development Report 2011 on
Conflict, Security and Development will cite organised crime as one of the key factors driving
post-conflict violence in fragile states, it will not contain any detailed analysis of the impact
of organised crime on the state.
b) The research will draw on a literature review carried out for DFID in early 2010 which sets
out the key texts which address these issues. Beyond this, as there has been limited prior
work in this area, the research will need to draw on detailed work done on, for example,
political settlements, warlord politics, and local governance and security in the countries
under review.
What is the overall purpose of the research and what is it intended to accomplish?
The research will be one of the first ever detailed, scholarly investigations into organised crime from
a development perspective. The overall aim of the research is to help to build a more rigorous
evidence base to judge the impact of organised crime on governance in developing countries. It is
hoped that the research will help to make the global debate on this subject better informed and less
dependent on media allegations. It should also help DFID and other donors tailor their approach to
statebuilding in fragile states, and provide a basis for effective cross-HMG work in key developing
countries.
What type of research initiative is proposed? How will it be carried out and what methods might be
used to generate the findings and outputs (desk reviews, surveys, fieldwork, etc.)?
The research will involve an inception report, 3 country case studies and a final report bringing
together the findings. Selection of countries will be done in consultation with the researchers and
country governance advisers.
The inception report will set out a theoretical framework for considering the influence of organised
criminals on governance of the state, which may draw on the Asia Foundation’s occasional paper on
political settlements and/or the IDS Centre for the Future State’s An upside down view of
governance. Central to the approach will be an analysis of the impact of organised crime on the
political and economic incentives of elites. The report will also establish broad guidelines about the
kinds of groups and activities that will be considered ‘organised crime’ for the purposes of the
research (without necessarily attempting to resolve wider debates about defining organised crime).
It will set out detailed research questions and methodologies for the country case studies, for
example suggestions about the kinds of evidence that will be investigated to determine the
influence of organised criminals on the state and the impact of this evidence.
The country case studies will:
a) provide an assessment of the influence of organised criminal actors over the state, through a
‘political settlements’ framework. As the research is to be published, it may not be possible
to name senior individuals in the political settlement who are alleged to have links to
organised crime. However case studies will give an overview of the political settlement and
outline the influence of organised criminal interests in terms of broad structures and groups.
b) provide evidence of the observable developmental impact of the influence of organised
criminals on the state. This could cover a wide range of potential impacts, depending on the
evidence available – e.g. economic policy making and private sector development;
effectiveness of law enforcement; impartiality and effectiveness of the justice system;
integrity of local and national bureaucracies, etc. Examples should focus on changes
attributable to organised criminal activity which have a clear impact for poor people
(positive or negative). Care must be taken to specify whether observable impacts are merely
correlated with organised criminal activity or can be attributed to it.
The case studies will draw on existing literature to the extent possible, but the majority of evidence
will come from in-country fieldwork. Fieldwork should collect both ‘objective’ evidence (e.g. data on
appointments in the police, progress of court cases etc) and ‘subjective’ evidence (from interviews
and other qualitative fieldwork).
The overarching report will summarise evidence gathered through the case studies. It will identify
common trends in terms of the influence of organised criminals on the states reviewed, and
summarise the impacts on development and poverty reduction. It may also provide generalised
recommendations for development agencies, for example in terms of their choice of partners in
country or possible modifications to the design of programmes.
Research outputs
By March 2011: inception report
By July 2011: Three country case studies
By October 2011: Final report
Skills and personnel
The research will require a team comprising:

A team leader with a strong understanding of organised crime and its impact on governance.
Ideally the team leader will have both a good grasp of the most recent academic work on
governance (particularly statebuilding and peacebuilding), and experience of researching
organised crime at field level. The lead will draft the inception report and final report, and
will provide guidance and support to the country case study authors.

Three authors of country case studies. These should all have a detailed knowledge of
governance and political structures in the country under review. Prior experience of
researching organised crime in country is desirable but not essential. Researchers must,
however, have good contacts and a sufficiently detailed understanding of power structures
in country to be able to comment on the influence of organised criminal groups on the
political settlement and the developmental impacts of this influence.
Potential Users/User Engagement - inside DFID, across HMG and in partner countries
 DFID – several DFID country offices (e.g. Afghanistan, Jamaica, West African Offices) are
struggling with how and whether to consider Organised Crime in their work. Some have
identified organised crime as a key potential driver of conflict and poor governance in
country, but lack solid evidence about its impact and guidance about what to do about it.
Other offices are not sure whether organised crime is a serious threat to development and
would value an analytical tool to determine this. The research would be relevant for these
country offices’ business plans and could also act as a pilot for potential future assessments
of the influence of organised crime in other DFID countries.

DFID and HMG – the research will provide an important part of the evidence to inform new
cross-Government approaches to building accountable states. In his speech at the Royal
College of Defence Studies on 16 September 2010, the Secretary of State talked of
“question[ing] important assumptions both in the military and in the development
community” such as the “assumption that strengthening states is an end in itself”. He said
that “in some countries the state may well be part of the problem” and recommends
“putting the development of inclusive politics at the very heart of our response”. The
hypothesis behind this research is that Organised Crime is often a critical factor which can
make the state “part of the problem.” The research will generate new evidence for
determining the extent to which fragile states are compromised by organised crime and
what this means in terms of HMG’s response.

HMG – beyond the diplomatic/ military community, several Government departments and
agencies have an interest in combating organised crime. Their efforts would benefit from
additional evidence about the infiltration of the state by organised criminal interests.

International Development Community – there is a small but growing policy community in
international development agencies which are interested in the links between organised
crime and development. The World Bank’s forthcoming World Development Report 2011 on
Conflict, Security and Development will feature drug trafficking and other organised crime as
key drivers of violence and conflict in developing countries (although it will not provide
detailed analysis of how organised crime impacts on governance and conflict). Other
agencies with an interest in this include USAID; the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade; the European Union; and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
Communication strategy – engaging users and communicating findings (including R4D etc)
The findings of the research will be submitted for peer reviewed journal publication. They will be
placed on the DFID R4D website. They will also be communicated through a workshop to which key
DFID, HMG and other participants will be invited.
Areas of potential conflict of interest or reputational risk
The research must be publishable on a DFID website and in a peer reviewed journal. Given that
organised criminals’ position in political settlements in developing countries is usually highly
sensitive, the research providers will need to ensure that reports do not make politically
controversial allegations that might undermine the UK’s broader work in country. It is also critical
that publication of findings does not put researchers’ own security at risk. This problem will probably
be best solved by:
(i) making references to systems and structures rather than individuals;
(ii) focusing on concrete evidence rather than unproven allegations;
(iii) potentially – and subject to discussion with the research team selected – producing an
unpublished annex which would only be available to HMG.
Nominated supplier OR list of suppliers for competition
Three potential suppliers:
LSE Enterprise (may bid through AG Research and Analysis Consultancy Ltd).
Institute of Development Studies.
NYU Centre on International Cooperation.