NT Pastoral Feed Outlook
December 2014
The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry
such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in
central Australia and fire risk.
You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are
interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2014
Individual District Summaries:
Darwin District
Katherine District
Victoria River District
Sturt Plateau District
Roper District
Gulf District
Barkly District
Tennant Creek District
Northern Alice Springs District
Plenty District
Southern Alice Springs District
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – December 2014
KEY
Green = low risk
Orange = watch
Red = high risk
KEY
↑ = increasing trend
↓ = decreasing trend
↔ = steady
Northern Territory Pastoral Districts
Darwin
Katherine
VRD
Sturt
Plateau
Roper
Gulf
Barkly
Tennant
Creek
Northern
Alice
Springs
Plenty
Southern
Alice
Springs
2014/15 total
pasture growth
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↑
↓
↔
Arrows indicate trend
compared to the long-term
median.
Current estimated
standing biomass
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↔
↓
↔
Arrows indicate trend since
previous quarter.
Indicator
Comments
Current seasonal
outlook
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter and
taking into account the
forecasted model predictions.
Current fire risk
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter.
For further information about this Outlook, please contact Dionne Walsh on 8999 2178 or Chris Materne on 8951 8135
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 2 of 15
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at December 2014
Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/
The national outlook for December 2014 to February 2015 indicates that:
 Drier than normal across the NT
 Warmer than normal days and nights more likely across the NT
Climate influences include El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and
average to cooler than average waters surrounding northern Australia.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
December 2014 to February 2015
Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.
December 2014 to February 2015
Seasonal Indicators
Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño-like impacts emerge in a number of areas
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Many climate indicators remain close to El Niño thresholds, with climate model
outlooks suggesting further intensification of conditions remains likely. Whether
or not an El Niño fully develops, a number of El Niño-like impacts have already
emerged. Indicators close to the El Niño thresholds include tropical Pacific
Ocean temperatures, which have now exceeded El Niño levels for a month, and
the Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained at or near El Niño levels for
three months. Other indicators, such as tropical cloud, trade winds and rainfall
patterns, have either remained near average or only temporarily approached
thresholds. This indicates a typical El Niño ocean–atmosphere interaction may
not be fully locked in.
El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and aboveaverage daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in
some locations over the past several months.
Current outlook:
El Niño Alert
El Niño ALERT
Level
(70% Chance)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The IOD index remains neutral.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
The latest weekly index value to 30 November is +0.2 °C. Climate models
surveyed in the model outlooks favour a continuation of neutral IOD values for
the remainder of the year.
The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to
April.
A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter conditions to inland southern
Australia during winter and spring.
Current outlook:
Neutral
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 3 of 15
Darwin District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth*
(% of district)
Below Average
72%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
28%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
0%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
86%
<1,000kg/ha
80%
High
64%
Average
14%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
20%
Moderate
36%
Above Average
<1%
>3,000kg/ha
<1%
Low
<1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
22% (since 1 July 2014)
* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and
keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously
because the actual difference between years is relatively small.
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July – December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 4 of 15
Katherine District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
47%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
53%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
0%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
85%
<1,000kg/ha
76%
High
47%
Average
15%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
24%
Moderate
53%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
<1%
Low
<1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
17% (since 1 July 2014)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July – December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 5 of 15
Victoria River District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
37%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
61%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
2%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
39%
<1,000kg/ha
25%
High
92%
Average
46%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
65%
Moderate
7%
Above Average
15%
>3,000kg/ha
11%
Low
1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
20% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July – December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 6 of 15
Sturt Plateau District
Risks:
- As at 1 December 2014, 36% of the district had been burnt
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
19%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
81%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
0%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
49%
<1,000kg/ha
60%
High
69%
Average
50%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
39%
Moderate
23%
Above Average
1%
>3,000kg/ha
1%
Low
8%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
36% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 7 of 15
Roper District
Risks:
- As at 1 December 2014, 28% of the district had been burnt
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
73%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
26%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
1%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
63%
<1,000kg/ha
47%
High
77%
Average
36%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
49%
Moderate
23%
Above Average
1%
>3,000kg/ha
4%
Low
<1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
28% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 8 of 15
Gulf District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
51%
<1,000kg/ha
100%
Average
49%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
<1%
>2,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
47%
<1,000kg/ha
43%
High
81%
Average
50%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
51%
Moderate
16%
Above Average
3%
>3,000kg/ha
7%
Low
3%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
23% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July – December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 9 of 15
Barkly District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
35%
<500kg/ha
100%
Average
57%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
0%
Above Average
8%
>1,000kg/ha
0%
Below Average
19%
<500kg/ha
45%
High
47%
Average
73%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
30%
Moderate
40%
Above Average
8%
>1,000kg/ha
25%
Low
13%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
2% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 10 of 15
Tennant Creek District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
89%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
11%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
0%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
27%
<500kg/ha
26%
High
79%
Average
67%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
35%
Moderate
19%
Above Average
6%
>1,000kg/ha
38%
Low
2%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 11 of 15
Northern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
34%
<250kg/ha
83%
Average
53%
>250 & <500kg/ha
13%
Above Average
13%
>500kg/ha
4%
Below Average
12%
<250kg/ha
8%
High
77%
Average
75%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
39%
Moderate
20%
Above Average
13%
>1,000kg/ha
53%
Low
4%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 12 of 15
Plenty District
Risks:
-
The district has experienced consecutive poor seasons. Both the 2012/13
and the 2013/14 seasons were well below average. As at 1 December 2014,
49% of the district had below average total standing dry matter and 29%
had extremely low levels (<250kg/ha).
2014/15 Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
100%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
<1%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
0%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
49%
<250kg/ha
29%
High
21%
Average
47%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
56%
Moderate
68%
Above Average
5%
>1,000kg/ha
15%
Low
12%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
0% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July – December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 13 of 15
Southern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Season (as at 1 December 2014)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
49%
<250kg/ha
99%
Average
45%
>250 & <500kg/ha
1%
Above Average
5%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
21%
<250kg/ha
8%
High
72%
Average
68%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
63%
Moderate
26%
Above Average
11%
>1,000kg/ha
29%
Low
2%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(December 2014 – February 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July - December 2014)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 14 of 15
Pasture Information
The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.
AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate
data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can
be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape
scale.
Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock
numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total
standing dry matter may be erroneous.
Disclaimer
While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and
correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may
impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or
assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice
contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.
You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or
investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your
particular situation.
The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards
any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES