NT Pastoral Feed Outlook
September 2015
The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry
such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in
central Australia and fire risk.
You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are
interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at September 2015
Individual District Summaries:
Darwin District
Katherine District
Victoria River District
Sturt Plateau District
Roper District
Gulf District
Barkly District
Tennant Creek District
Northern Alice Springs District
Plenty District
Southern Alice Springs District
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – September 2015
KEY
Green = low risk
Orange = watch
Red = high risk
KEY
↑ = increasing trend
↓ = decreasing trend
↔ = steady
Northern Territory Pastoral Districts
Darwin
Katherine
VRD
Sturt
Plateau
Roper
Gulf
Barkly
Tennant
Creek
Northern
Alice
Springs
Plenty
Southern
Alice
Springs
2014/15 total
pasture growth
↔
↔
↑
↔
↔
↓
↑
↑
↑
↓
↓
Arrows indicate trend
compared to the long-term
median.
Current estimated
standing biomass
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
Arrows indicate trend since
previous quarter.
Indicator
Comments
Current seasonal
outlook
↑
↑
↑
↔
↔
↔
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter and
taking into account the
forecasted model predictions.
Current fire risk
↑
↑
↔
↔
↑
↑
↓
↔
↔
↓
↓
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter.
For further information about this Outlook, please contact Dionne Walsh on 8999 2178 or Chris Materne on 8951 8135
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 2 of 15
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at September 2015
Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/
The national outlook for September to November 2015 indicates that:
 Wetter than normal spring is more likely across the southern NT
 Warmer than normal days more likely across the northern NT
 Warmer than normal nights more likely across the entire NT
The current outlook reflects the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and
the El Niño in the Pacific
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
September to November 2015
Seasonal Indicators
Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98.
The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with
sea surface temperatures well above El Niño thresholds,
consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern
Oscillation Index.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring
rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime
temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
ENSO tracker raised to El Niño status on the 12 May 2015.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview
Current outlook:
Warmer & Drier
El Niño Alert
El Niño ALERT Level
(El Niño status)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
Current outlook:
Neutral
Values of the IOD index have been at or above the threshold
level of +0.4 °C for four weeks.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean are warmer
than average over much of the basin, and the Indian Ocean as a
whole has been at near-record temperatures in recent months.
For a positive IOD event to be considered, the IOD would need to
remain at or above +0.4°C through September 2015.
A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and
spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 3 of 15
Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.
September to November 2015
Darwin District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth*
(% of district)
Below Average
71%
<1,000kg/ha
0%
Average
28%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
58%
Above Average
1%
>2,000kg/ha
42%
Below Average
82%
<1,000kg/ha
58%
High
87%
Average
18%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
40%
Moderate
13%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
2%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
21% (since 1 July 2015)
* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and
keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously
because the actual difference between years is relatively small.
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 4 of 15
Katherine District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September, 98% of the district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
64%
<1,000kg/ha
0%
Average
31%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
53%
Above Average
5%
>2,000kg/ha
47%
Below Average
72%
<1,000kg/ha
36%
High
98%
Average
28%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
62%
Moderate
2%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
2%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
6% (since 1 July 2015)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 5 of 15
Victoria River District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September 2015, 98% of the district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
35%
<1,000kg/ha
17%
Average
61%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
49%
Above Average
4%
>2,000kg/ha
34%
Below Average
50%
<1,000kg/ha
20%
High
98%
Average
44%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
67%
Moderate
2%
Above Average
6%
>3,000kg/ha
13%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
2% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 6 of 15
Sturt Plateau District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September 2015, 97% of the district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
10%
<1,000kg/ha
6%
Average
81%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
47%
Above Average
9%
>2,000kg/ha
46%
Below Average
53%
<1,000kg/ha
24%
High
97%
Average
47%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
76%
Moderate
3%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
<1%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
2% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 7 of 15
Roper District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September 2015, 96% of the district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
66%
<1,000kg/ha
4%
Average
33%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
49%
Above Average
1%
>2,000kg/ha
47%
Below Average
72%
<1,000kg/ha
26%
High
96%
Average
28%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
70%
Moderate
4%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
4%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
13% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 8 of 15
Gulf District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September 2015, 95% of the district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
65%
<1,000kg/ha
12%
Average
32%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
65%
Above Average
3%
>2,000kg/ha
23%
Below Average
82%
<1,000kg/ha
36%
High
95%
Average
18%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
58%
Moderate
5%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
7%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
1% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 9 of 15
Barkly District
Risks:
- As at the 1st September 2015 the majority of the district’s south eastern
corner has less than 200kg/ha of total standing dry matter
2014/15 Wet Season Summary
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
5%
<500kg/ha
20%
Average
76%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
40%
Above Average
19%
>1,000kg/ha
40%
Below Average
23%
<500kg/ha
33%
High
61%
Average
71%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
36%
Moderate
29%
Above Average
6%
>1,000kg/ha
31%
Low
10%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 10 of 15
Tennant Creek District
Risks:
- None to report
2015/16 Season (as at 1 September 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
1%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
92%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
7%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
29%
<500kg/ha
22%
High
83%
Average
58%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
23%
Moderate
16%
Above Average
13%
>1,000kg/ha
55%
Low
1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 11 of 15
Northern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- None to report
2015/16 Season (as at 1 September 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
31%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
66%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
3%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
12%
<250kg/ha
5%
High
87%
Average
85%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
37%
Moderate
10%
Above Average
3%
>1,000kg/ha
58%
Low
3%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 12 of 15
Plenty District
Risks:
-
The district has experienced three consecutive poor seasons. Pasture growth
during the past two quarters has slightly improved the amount of total
standing dry matter, but pasture levels are still low in many parts of the
district
2015/16 Season (as at 1 September 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
37%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
61%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
2%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
45%
<250kg/ha
26%
High
34%
Average
53%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
60%
Moderate
57%
Above Average
2%
>1,000kg/ha
14%
Low
9%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
0% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 13 of 15
Southern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- None to report
2015/16 Season (as at 1 September 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
69%
<250kg/ha
100%
Average
30%
>250 & <500kg/ha
0%
Above Average
<1%
>500kg/ha
0%
Below Average
34%
<250kg/ha
12%
High
57%
Average
64%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
66%
Moderate
41%
Above Average
2%
>1,000kg/ha
22%
Low
2%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
0% (since 1 July 2015)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(September – November 2015)
Total 2015/16 Pasture Growth
(July – August 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 14 of 15
Pasture Information
The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.
AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate
data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can
be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape
scale.
Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock
numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total
standing dry matter may be erroneous.
Disclaimer
While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and
correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may
impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or
assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice
contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use, and disclaims any liability or
responsibility or duty of care towards any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or
reliance on this information.
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES