NT Pastoral Feed Outlook
June 2015
The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry
such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in
central Australia and fire risk.
You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are
interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at June 2015
Individual District Summaries:
Darwin District
Katherine District
Victoria River District
Sturt Plateau District
Roper District
Gulf District
Barkly District
Tennant Creek District
Northern Alice Springs District
Plenty District
Southern Alice Springs District
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES
Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – June 2015
KEY
Green = low risk
Orange = watch
Red = high risk
KEY
↑ = increasing trend
↓ = decreasing trend
↔ = steady
Northern Territory Pastoral Districts
Darwin
Katherine
VRD
Sturt
Plateau
Roper
Gulf
Barkly
Tennant
Creek
Northern
Alice
Springs
Plenty
Southern
Alice
Springs
2014/15 total
pasture growth
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↓
↑
↑
↑
↓
↓
Arrows indicate trend
compared to the long-term
median.
Current estimated
standing biomass
↔
↔
↔
↔
↓
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
Arrows indicate trend since
previous quarter.
Indicator
Current seasonal
outlook
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↑
Current fire risk
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↔
↔
For further information about this Outlook, please contact Dionne Walsh on 8999 2178 or Chris Materne on 8951 8135
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 2 of 15
Comments
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter and
taking into account the
forecasted model predictions.
Arrows indicate the trend
since previous quarter.
Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at June 2015
Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/
The national outlook for June to August 2015 indicates that:
 Drier than normal across the top end of the NT
 Wetter than normal across the southern NT in July
 Warmer than normal days more likely across the northern NT
 Warmer than normal nights more likely across the entire NT
Both the Pacific and Indian oceans are influencing this outlook. The El Niño in the Pacific (which
models indicate will strengthen) is having a drying impact on eastern Australia, while continued
warmth in the Indian Ocean, coupled with the El Niño in the Pacific, is tending to enhance
rainfall in southern WA.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
June to August 2015
Seasonal Indicators
Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO tracker raised to El Niño status on the 12 May 2015.
The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. Most oceanic and
atmospheric indicators are consistent with El Niño. International
climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest
further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with sea surface
temperatures forecast to remain above El Niño thresholds for the
remainder of the year. Therefore, the ENSO Tracker status has been
raised to El Niño status on the 12 May 2015.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall
over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over
the southern half of Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview
Current outlook:
Warmer & Drier
El Niño Alert
El Niño ALERT Level
(El Niño status)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
Current outlook:
Neutral
Models suggest the IOD index will remain neutral throughout
winter.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five
international models that provide IOD outlooks, two suggest a positive
IOD is likely later in 2015, with a third model just shy of thresholds.
A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring
rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 3 of 15
Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.
June to August 2015
Darwin District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth*
(% of district)
Below Average
65%
<1,000kg/ha
0%
Average
33%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
58%
Above Average
2%
>2,000kg/ha
42%
Below Average
88%
<1,000kg/ha
16%
High
72%
Average
11%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
79%
Moderate
28%
Above Average
<1%
>3,000kg/ha
5%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
48% (since 1 July 2014)
* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and
keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously
because the actual difference between years is relatively small.
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 4 of 15
Katherine District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
60%
<1,000kg/ha
0%
Average
33%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
53%
Above Average
7%
>2,000kg/ha
47%
Below Average
77%
<1,000kg/ha
13%
High
45%
Average
24%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
83%
Moderate
55%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
4%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
28% (since 1 July 2014)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 5 of 15
Victoria River District
Risks:
- As of the 1st June 96% of district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
35%
<1,000kg/ha
17%
Average
62%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
49%
Above Average
4%
>2,000kg/ha
34%
Below Average
48%
<1,000kg/ha
14%
High
96%
Average
46%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
67%
Moderate
4%
Above Average
6%
>3,000kg/ha
19%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
34% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 6 of 15
Sturt Plateau District
Risks:
- As of the 1st June 96% of district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
12%
<1,000kg/ha
6%
Average
79%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
47%
Above Average
10%
>2,000kg/ha
46%
Below Average
41%
<1,000kg/ha
11%
High
96%
Average
59%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
87%
Moderate
4%
Above Average
<1%
>3,000kg/ha
2%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
39% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 7 of 15
Roper District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
72%
<1,000kg/ha
4%
Average
27%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
50%
Above Average
1%
>2,000kg/ha
46%
Below Average
78%
<1,000kg/ha
11%
High
86%
Average
22%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
77%
Moderate
14%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
11%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
41% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 8 of 15
Gulf District
Risks:
- As of the 1st June 96% of district had a high fire risk
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
68%
<1,000kg/ha
12%
Average
30%
>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha
65%
Above Average
3%
>2,000kg/ha
23%
Below Average
79%
<1,000kg/ha
21%
High
99%
Average
21%
>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha
65%
Moderate
1%
Above Average
0%
>3,000kg/ha
14%
Low
0%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
37% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 9 of 15
Barkly District
Risks:
- The majority of the district’s south eastern corner has had less than
500kg/ha of pasture growth
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
6%
<500kg/ha
20%
Average
66%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
40%
Above Average
28%
>1,000kg/ha
40%
Below Average
19%
<500kg/ha
20%
High
78%
Average
70%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
29%
Moderate
19%
Above Average
12%
>1,000kg/ha
51%
Low
3%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
5% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 10 of 15
Tennant Creek District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Wet Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
6%
<250kg/ha
24%
Average
70%
>250 & <500kg/ha
32%
Above Average
25%
>500kg/ha
44%
Below Average
28%
<500kg/ha
18%
High
88%
Average
58%
>500 & <1,000kg/ha
22%
Moderate
12%
Above Average
13%
>1,000kg/ha
60%
Low
<1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
2% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 11 of 15
Northern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- 90% of the district currently has a high fire risk.
2014/15 Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
3%
<250kg/ha
14%
Average
86%
>250 & <500kg/ha
20%
Above Average
10%
>500kg/ha
66%
Below Average
11%
<250kg/ha
4%
High
90%
Average
83%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
31%
Moderate
8%
Above Average
6%
>1,000kg/ha
65%
Low
2%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 12 of 15
Plenty District
Risks:
-
The district has three experienced consecutive poor seasons. Pasture growth
during the past two quarters has slightly improved the amount of total
standing dry matter, but pasture levels are still low in many parts of the
district.
2014/15 Season (as at 1 June 2015)
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
14%
<250kg/ha
67%
Average
86%
>250 & <500kg/ha
27%
Above Average
0%
>500kg/ha
6%
Below Average
34%
<250kg/ha
19%
High
51%
Average
64%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
64%
Moderate
44%
Above Average
2%
>1,000kg/ha
16%
Low
5%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
0% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 13 of 15
Southern Alice Springs District
Risks:
- None to report
2014/15 Season (as at 1 June 2015
Pasture Growth
(% of district)
Below Average
35%
<250kg/ha
79%
Average
63%
>250 & <500kg/ha
15%
Above Average
2%
>500kg/ha
6%
Below Average
30%
<250kg/ha
9%
High
70%
Average
67%
>250 & <1,000kg/ha
65%
Moderate
28%
Above Average
4%
>1,000kg/ha
26%
Low
1%
Currently
Total Standing Dry
Matter
(% of district)
Fire Risk
(% of district)
Area Burnt
(% of district)
<1% (since 1 July 2014)
Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha)
(Running Total)
Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth
(June – August 2015)
Total 2014/15 Pasture Growth
(July 2014 – June 2015)
Current Estimated
Total Standing Dry Matter
© Northern Territory Government, Feb-16
Page 14 of 15
Pasture Information
The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.
AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate
data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can
be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape
scale.
Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock
numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total
standing dry matter may be erroneous.
Disclaimer
While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and
correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may
impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or
assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice
contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.
You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or
investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your
particular situation.
The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards
any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY AND FISHERIES