Hazard Summary
Hazard classification and identified hazards in the ORTDM
HAZARDS IDENTIFIED IN ORTDM
HAZARD CATEGORY
NATURAL HAZARDS
These are natural processes or phenomena occurring in the biosphere that may constitute a
damaging event. Natural Hazards are typically classified into:
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Natural processes or phenomena of atmospheric, hydrological
Floods
or oceanographic nature
Drought
Severe storms:
Lightning
Strong wind/tornado
Hail and/or Cold Snap
Geological Hazards:
Geological hazards include internal earth processes, such as
earthquakes and related geophysical processes such as mass movements, landslides,
Landslides, rock fall, mudflow
Sinkholes
rockslides, surface collapses, debris or mud flows.
Biological Hazards: Processes of organic origin or those conveyed by biological vectors,
Veld fire
including exposure to pathogenic micro-organisms, toxins and bioactive substances
Human diseases (Cholera, HIV/Aids,
Tuberculosis)
Animal diseases (African swine fever,
Foot and Mouth)
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS:
Technological hazards are defined as danger originating from technological or industrial
accidents, dangerous procedures or certain human activities, which may cause the loss of life
or injury, property damage, social and economic degradation.
Transport accidents
Railway accidents
HAZMAT by road/rail
Service delivery failure or disruption
Critical infrastructure disruption
Structural collapse/failure
Structural fire
Shipping incident – Oil Spill
ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS:
These are processes induced by human behaviour and activities (sometimes combined with
natural hazards), that damage the natural resource base or adversely alter natural processes
or ecosystems1.
Loss of biodiversity
Soil erosion
Coastal Erosion
Overgrazing
Air pollution
Land degradation
Surface water pollution
Groundwater pollution
The table above illustrate the types of hazards that pose disaster risk within the ORTDM and their possible
effects. The communities at risk can be derived from the risk lists, and are also shown in the Risk Assessment
that was conducted for the area
1
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 2002. Living with Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives.
Relative Risk Priorities
To ensure that all the parameters (Hazard Score; Vulnerability Score; Coping Capacity Score) required for
calculating risk were equally weighted, all their respective scores were reclassified and rated from 1 to 3.
Calculate Relative Risk Priorities: The following simple mathematical model was used to calculate the relative
priorities of the risks to which the communities in each region are exposed:
Relative Risk Priority Score = Hazard rating X Vulnerability rating /Coping Capacity Score




Extremely High Risks (Relative Risk Priority ≥ 7): Should the relative risk priority of a particular hazard
event impacting on a community be higher than or equal to 7, that community faces a potentially
destructive risk with a high probability of occurrence, for which they are unprepared. This combination
equates to an extremely high risk and is a disaster in the making. For these extremely high risks you
must prepare urgent risk reduction interventions.
High Risks (4.5 ≤ Relative Risk Priority < 7): If the relative risk priority of a particular hazard event
impacting on a community is between 4.5 and 7, the risks to which these communities are exposed are
potentially destructive, but the community is modestly prepared for the hazard event occurrence. This
combination equates to a high risk and you must prepare a combination of risk reduction interventions
and preparedness plans for these risks.
Tolerable Risks (2 ≤Relative Risk Priority < 4.5): Relative risk priorities of a particular hazard event
impacting on a community between 2 and lower than 4.5 translate into an acceptable risk for a largely
prepared community. This combination equates to a tolerable risk and you must prepare preparedness
plans for these risks
Low Risks (Relative Risk Priority < 2): Relative risk priorities of a particular hazard event impacting on a
community lower than 2 translate into a very small risk for a largely prepared community. This combination
equates to a low risk and any hazard preparedness plans are sufficient for these risks.
ORTDM Risk Register
Floods
Drought
Strong
Winds/Tornado
ORTDM
ORTDM
ORTDM
Affected
Area
Options:
Whole
area
affected,
various
distributed
pockets
affected
within
area,
several
points
affected
within
area,
single
pocket /
point
affected
within
area.
Whole
area
Hazard Indices
Score:
3=Likely
2=Normal
1=Unlikely
Severity
3
3
9
2
3
6
3
2
6
Veldfires
Human
Disease
ORTDM
Animal Disease
ORTDM
Landslides,
Rockfalls and
Mudflows
ORTDM
Sinkholes
ORTDM
Road Accident
ORTDM
Fire (Structural)
ORTDM
3
HAZMAT Spill
ORTDM
2
Critical
Infrastructure
Disrusption/Key
Srevice
Disruption
Structural
Failure (Mud
dwellings,
bridges)
Shipping
Incident (Oil
Spill)
3
1
3
2
2
4
3
3
9
3
3
9
2
2
4
3
1
3
2
3
ORTDM
Loss of
Biodiversity
ORTDM
Coastal Erosion
ORTDM
ORTDM
ORTDM
Societal
Economic
Environmental
Critical
Facilities
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
3
2
3
2
2
2
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
Awareness
Legislative
Framework
Early
Warning
Systems
Government
Response
Government
Resources
Existing
Risk
Reduction
Measures
Public
Participation
Measures
Municipal
Management
Capability
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
5
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
11
9
9
8
8
10
7
9
6
10
9.900
high
11
4.909
tolerable
10
5.400
tolerable
10
2.400
low
12
2.667
low
13
6.923
tolerable
16
3.938
tolerable
13
2.769
low
13
1.385
low
10
1.000
low
2
1
9
2
2
1
1
6
2
12
4.500
tolerable
3
9
3
2
2
1
8
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
12
6.000
tolerable
2
4
3
1
2
2
8
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
11
2.909
low
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
11
5.727
tolerable
11
1.909
low
11
2.455
low
1
3
3
3
9
3
1
3
7
1
3
3
3
3
9
2
1
3
1
2
2
3
1
2
1
3
1
3
1
2
2
3
3
3
1
2
2
3
2
3
3
3
9
2
2
4
1
3
3
3
9
3
2
6
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
7
3
3
Managability
Rating
1
ORTDM
ORTDM
Vulnerability
Rating
1
ORTDM
Overgrazing
Managability / Capacity to Cope Score:
1=Poor
2=Modest
3=Good
2
ORTDM
Soil Erosion
Land
Degradation
Ground/Surface
Water Pollution
Vulnerability Score:
1=Not Vulnerable
2=Vulnerable
3=Extremely Vulnerable
Probability
Lightning
Hail and Cold
Snap
ORTDM
Score:
3=Extreme
2=Moderate
1=Insignificant
Managability / Capacity to Cope indices
Hazard
Rating
ORTDM
ORTDM
Vulnerability Indices
Relative Risk Priority
Jurisdiction
/ Local
Municipality
Relative Risk Rating
Hazard
2
3
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
9
7
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
13
4.846
tolerable
8
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
12
6.000
tolerable
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
13
2.154
low
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
11
2.182
low
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
12
7.500
high
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
14
3.857
tolerable
7
8
10
9
Table 1: Risk Prioritisation for the O.R. Tambo District Municipality
ORTDM Risk Ratings
Hazard
Relative Risk
Priority
Floods
high
Land Degradation
high
Veldfires
tolerable
Fire (Structural)
tolerable
Overgrazing
tolerable
Critical Infrastructure
Disruption/Key Service
Disruption
tolerable
Strong Winds/Tornado
tolerable
Drought
tolerable
Soil Erosion
tolerable
Road Accident
tolerable
Human Disease
tolerable
Ground/Surface Water Pollution
tolerable
HAZMAT Spill
low
Animal Disease
low
Hail and Cold Snap
low
Shipping Incident (Oil Spill)
low
Lightning
Coastal Erosion
low
Loss of Biodiversity
low
Structural Failure (Mud
dwellings, bridges)
low
Landslides, Rockfalls and
Mudflows
low
Key findings
Top hazards for each local municipality
TOP PRIORITY HAZARDS IDENTIFIED IN EACH LOCAL MUNICIPALITY
Ingquza Hill LM
Port St Johns LM
Nyandeni LM
1. Human
Disease
HIV/Aids and
TB
2. Veld Fires
3. Infrastructure/
Service
Delivery
Disruption
4. Severe
Storms
1. Severe
Storms
2. Drought
3. Infrastructure
/Service
Delivery
Disruption
4. Human
Disease
5. Veld Fires
1. Veld Fires
2. Human
Disease –
HIV/Aids
and TB
3. Severe
Storms
4. Road
Transporta
tion
Hazards
Mhlontlo LM
1. Veld Fires
2. Severe
Storms
3. Human
Disease –
HIV/Aids
King Sabata
Dalindyebo LM
1. Floods
2. Infrastructure/
Service
Delivery
Disruption
3. Human
Disease
–
HIV/Aids and
TB
4. Severe
Storms
The list below illustrates the types of disasters that pose the highest risks within the area of the O.R. Tambo
Municipality and their possible effects.
The hazards identified as posing the most significant risk across the ORTDM include:





Hydro-meteorological
Land Degradation
Fire Hazards
Road Transportation Hazard
Infrastructure Failure/Service Delivery Failure
Summaries of the risks
From the aggregated risk registers for the ORTDM it is evident that hydro-meteorological, fire hazards, land
degradation, road transportation hazard, and infrastructure failure/service delivery failure are the high risk
priorities.
Hydro-meteorological
Hydro-meteorological hazards is a wide variety of meteorological, hydrological and climate phenomena that
may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social
and economic disruption, or environmental damage. The main hydro-meteorological hazards considered a high
risk for ORTDM are severe storms, flooding and drought. Severe storms are atmospheric disturbances usually
characterised by strong winds, with rain, flash flooding, hail, thunder and lightning, in various combinations.
Severe storms are localised events, usually affecting smaller areas than tropical cyclones and floods, so their
devastating impact is often under-estimated.
Climate change, dependency on subsistence farming along with ORTDM’s current vulnerability profile, has
emphasised the need for decisive action with regards to the management of hydro-meteorological risks in the
ORTDM.
Fire Hazards
Fire hazards posing a high risk in the ORTDM refers to both veld and settlement fires. Veld fires can have a
significant impact on rural communities, due to their reliance on subsistence farming. Increased urbanisation
and the growth of informal settlements have also increased the risk of informal settlement fires in the ORTDM.
Land Degradation
Land degradation poses a significant risk in the ORTDM. It is defined as a decline in the overall quality of soil,
water or vegetation conditions due to human activities and is often the catalyst of desertification of an area.
Road transportation
Accidents which occurred or originated on a way or street open to public traffic; which resulted in one or
more persons being killed or injured and in which at least one moving vehicle was involved.
Infrastructure failure/service delivery failure
Failure can be caused by inadequate design, inadequate planning, poor maintenance or phenomena such as
flooding, fire, etc. Infrastructure and service delivery failure can increase disaster risk. It is important to
emphasise the design, construction and maintenance of infrastructure in order to avoid service disruption.
Delivering public services is a top priority to make progress towards the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) and to strengthen civic engagement. The involvement of communities in political and municipal
processes continues to be a big challenge in South Africa. Lack of municipal response to community problems
fuels community frustrations. The need remains for municipalities to prioritise community concerns and creating
functional communication channels.