Supplementary material to “Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socio
economic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves”
J. Kros, M.M. Bakker, P. Reidsma, A. Kanellopoulos, S. Jamal Alam, W. de Vries
A complete description of the model linkage used in this study is given in the figure below.
Apart from the models FSSIM,RULEX and INITIATOR, use is made of: (i) the crop model
WOFOST, predicting changes in crop yields that are used by FSSIM and RULEX, (ii) the market
model CAPRI, predicting changes in prices used by FSSIM and (iii) the hydrological model
NHI predicting changes in ground water level used by INITIATOR and (iv) the deposition
model OPS predicting N deposition in response to changes in NH3 and NOx emissions.
Figure 1: Main flows of inputs and outputs to and from the integrated impact analysis in the
Baakse Beek.
1
WOFOST
WOFOST (www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/ResearchInstitutes/alterra/Facilities-Products/Software/WOFOST.htm) is a crop growth model that is
suited to perform yield calculations at large spatial scales and for a large number of
combinations of different weather data, soil characteristics, and crop species. It simulates
agricultural yield potential in view of physiological (crop characteristics), physical (soils,
climate) and agronomic information (irrigation, fertilizer application) (Boogaard et al. 2013).
The principles underlying this model have been discussed in detail by Van Keulen (1986) and
the implementation and structure have been described by Van Diepen et al. (1989).
WOFOSTcalculates crop growth and production on a daily time step using daily weather
data, soil characteristics, crop parameters and information about management practices as
input. Assumptions for the current application are described inWolf et al. (2011), and
resulting changes in crop yields are documented in the FSSIM applications by
Kanellopouloset al. (2014; arable) and Paas (2013; dairy). For grass yields, LINGRA (Bouman
et al. 1996) was used instead of WOFOST.
CAPRI
CAPRI (www.capri-model.org/dokuwiki/doku.php) is a comparative static partial equilibrium
model for the agricultural sector, developed for policy impact assessment of the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP) and trade policies from global to regional scale, focusing on EU27
level (Britz and Witzke 2012). CAPRI has the capacity to assess economic consequences at
the regional level over Europe, based on the linkage of a supply module with a focus on
Europe and a global market module. The supply module which covers the EU27, Norway,
Western Balkans and Turkey, represents all agricultural production activities and related
output generation and input use at regional or farm type level (Gocht and Britz 2011)
captured by the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The model includes variable costs for
the different production activities and captures the effects of labour and capital on farmers’
decisions. Prices are exogenous in the supply module and are provided by the market
module. The core of the market module consists of a spatial global multi-commodity model
for about 50 primary and processed agricultural products, covering about 80 countries or
country blocks in the world in 40 trading blocks. This module delivers the output prices used
in the supply module and allows for market analysis at global, EU, and national scale
2
including a welfare analysis. CAPRI results include different income indicators such as
variable costs, revenues, gross margins, etc., both for individual production activities as for
regions and farm types. The CAPRI model has been used in several integrated studies, e.g.
for the quantification of greenhouse gas emission profiles of livestock sectors(Lesschen et al.
2011) and agricultural N budgets in Europe (Leip et al. 2011). In this study CAPRI results on
future price changes are used in FSSIM to assess impacts on cropping patterns and thereby
on farm gross income, farm net income, and farm labour demand.
AMIGO/NHI
AMIGO, the regional version of National Hydrological Instrument (NHI) (Van Ek et al. 2012,
www.nhi.nu), was used to assess the changes in groundwater levels, water fluxes and water
contents in the Baakse Beek. AMIGO/NHI combines the models MODFLOW (water flow in
the saturated zone), MetaSWAP (water flow in the unsaturated zone), WOFOST (crop
growth) and DM MOZART (surface water flowin rural water courses). AMIGO/NHI originally
operates at a spatial resolution of 250 m x 250 m and a daily time step, but was adapted for
the Baakse Beek application towards a spatial resolution of 25 m x 25 m at the same daily
time step (Van Ek et al. 2012). MODFLOW (Harbaugh et al. 2000) is a three-dimensional (3D)
finite-difference groundwater model. It simulates and predicts groundwater conditions and
groundwater/surface-water interactions for the unsaturated zone. DM MOZART (Van den
Braak et al. 2006) is a regional surface water model calculating the effects of changing
discharges on surface water levels. MetaSWAP (Van Walsum and Veldhuizen 2011), a meta
model for the unsaturated zone, includes components for water flow and evaporation,
based on calculations with the model SWAP(Kroes et al. 2000) in response to ground water
level changes. For each time step, the transient vertical water flow in the unsaturated zone
is read from a file with pre-calculated SWAP results.
Deposition calculations
The OPS (Operational Priority Substances) model (Van Jaarsveld 2004; Van Pul et al. 2004),
was used for the calculation of the dispersion and deposition of NH3 (and NOx). OPS
simulates the atmospheric process sequence of emission, dispersion, transport, chemical
conversion, and deposition for a wide variety of pollutants including SOx, NOy, NHx and fine
particles. OPS represents a combination of a Gaussian plume model for local3
scaleapplication and a trajectory model for long-range transport. Especially in the case of
ammonia the local scale plume modelallows for a detailed approach of the low level release
height in combination withnear-source deposition. Dry and wet deposition of NHx is
calculated with a spatial resolution mainly dependent on the resolution of the emission data.
In this study we used OPS version 4.3.12, which is the version that was also used for the
Dutch national deposition estimate for 2009 (Velders et al. 2010).
With the combination of INITIATOR and OPS, the NH3 deposition due to agricultural NH3
emission in the Baakse Beek (i.e. the landscape emission) was calculated at a spatial
resolution of 100 m × 100 m. The NH3 emissions from housing and storage systems and from
the field, both also at a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m and calculated by INITIATOR,
were used as input for OPS.
The background deposition of NH3was derived at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Therefore we
used the national total NH3 deposition map, also calculated with OPS, at resolution of 1 km ×
1 km for the year 2009 (Velders et al. 2012) as starting point. From this map we subtracted
the NH3 deposition due to landscape emissions at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. These were
calculated by an additional OPS run at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. To enable a comparison
with the critical N deposition, the total N deposition in nature reserves was calculated by
combining the:

NH3 deposition due to landscape emissions at 100 m × 100 m.

NH3 deposition due to emissions outside Baakse Beek (and non-agricultural NH3
emission inside the Baakse Beek) at a 1 km × 1 km resolution.

NOx deposition at a 1 km × 1 km resolution from the national deposition maps
(Velders et al. 2010).
References
Boogaard H, Wolf J, Supit I, Niemeyer S, van Ittersum M (2013) A regional implementation of
WOFOST for calculating yield gaps of autumn-sown wheat across the European Union. Field
Crop Res 143:130-142
Bouman BAM, Schapendonk AHCM, Stol W, van Kraalingen DWG (1996) Description of the
growth model LINGRA as implemented in CGMS. Quantitative Approaches in Systems
Analysis No. 7. AB-DLO (Wageningen/Haren) & PE (Wageningen), 56 pp. + 32 pp. appendices
4
Britz W, Witzke P (2012) CAPRI model documentation, URL: http://www.caprimodel.org/docs/capri_documentation.pdf. University of Bonn,
Gocht A, Britz W (2011) EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI—How to consistently
disaggregate sector models into farm type models. Journal of Policy Modeling 33(1):22
Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC, McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW-2000, The U.S.
Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - User Guide to Modularization Concepts
and the Ground-Water Flow Process. USGS Open-File Report: 2000-92. Geological Survey
(U.S.),
Kanellopoulos A, Reidsma P, Wolf J, van Ittersum MK (2014) Assessing climate change and
associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of
benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling. European Journal of Agronomy 52:69-80
Kroes JG, Wesseling JG, van Dam JC (2000) Integrated modelling of the soil-wateratmosphere-plant system using the model SWAP 2.0 an overview of theory and an
application. Hydrol. Proc. 14(11/12):1993-2002
Leip A, Britz W, Weiss F, De Vries W (2011) Farm, Land, and Soil nitrogen budgets for
Agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI. Environmental Pollution
Lesschen JP, van den Berg M, Westhoek HJ, Witzke HP, Oenema O (2011) Greenhouse gas
emission profiles of European livestock sectors. Anim Feed Sci Tech 166-167:16-28
Paas W (2013) Impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers dairy farms in ‘the
Baakse Beek’, the Netherlands. Wageningen University
Van den Braak WEW, de Graaff BJA, Bakker MR, van Wijk GP (2006) Herziening
schematisatie oppervlaktewater MOZART in ‘peilbeheerst’ Nederland. HKV Lijn in water
Van Diepen CA, Wolf J, van Keulen H, Rappoldt C (1989) WOFOST: a simulation model of
crop production. Soil Use and Management 5:16-24
Van Ek R, Janssen G, Kuijper M et al (2012) NMDC-Innovatieproject. Van Kritische zone tot
Kritische Onzekerheden: case studie Baakse beek. Deltares, Delft, pp. 185
Van Jaarsveld JA (2004) The Operational Priority Substances model. Description and
validation of OPS-Pro 4.1. RIVM Report. National Institute of Public Health and the
Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, pp. 156
Van Keulen H (1986) A simple model of potential crop production. Modelling of agricultural
production : weather, soils and crops, Simulation monographs. Pudoc, Wageningen, pp. 4160
Van Pul WAJ, van Jaarsveld H, van der Meulen T, Velders G (2004) Ammonia concentrations
in the Netherlands: spatially detailed measurements and model calculations. Atmos. Environ.
38(24):4045-4055
Van Walsum PEV, Veldhuizen AA (2011) MetaSWAP_V7_2_0. Rapportage van activiteiten
ten behoeve van certificering met Status A. WUR, Wageningen, pp. 116
Velders GJM, J.M.M. Aben, van Jaarsveld JA, van Pul WAJ, de Vries WJ, van Zanten MC
(2010) Grootschalige stikstofdepositie in Nederland. Herkomst en ontwikkeling in de tijd. In:
500088007/2010 P.-p. (ed). Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Bilthoven,
Wolf J, Mandryk M, Kanellopoulos A et al (2011) Integrated assessment of adaptation to
Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level. Wageningen University, pp. 137
5