Roosevelt University – Institute for Politics
430 S. Michigan Avenue
Chicago, Illinois 60605
Paul M. Green – Director
The 2014 Illinois Primary:
A Vote Analysis
I. Statewide Turnout
A. Republicans
B. Democrats
II. Republican Primary Results
C. Governor
D. United States Senate
III. Democratic Primary Results
E. Governor
F. 26th State Representative District
May, 2014
Research Assistance
Ms. Jearlean Fleming
Ms. Kathy Murphy
This report is a non-partisan analysis of the 2014 Illinois primary. It is produced by the Institute for
Politics – is author is Institute Director, Paul Green, who is solely responsible for the contents of this
report. The Institute wishes to thank the Illinois State Board of Elections, the Cook County Clerk’s Office,
and the Chicago Board of Elections for their assistance in gathering the returns.
Comments on this material are welcomed – email – pgreen@roosevelt.edu.
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Preface –
Glossary of geographical breakdown terms:
1. Chicago –
50 Wards
2. Suburban 30 –
Suburban Cook County’s 30 Townships
3. Collars 5 –
DuPage – Kane – Lake – McHenry – Will.
Counties that surround Cook County
3. Downstate 96 –
The rest of Illinois’ 96 Counties
4. In total –
Illinois has 102 Counties
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2014 Primary
I. Statewide Turnout
I. Republican Turnout
The hotly contested Republican gubernatorial primary generated two interesting results.
First – the GOP primary turnout overwhelmed the sleepy Democratic primary turnout by over
337,000 votes (see Table 1). Second – though pundits predicted a low primary turnout – they
were only half-right. As shown below, the Democrats had a massive drop in turnout compared
to the 2010 primary, but the Republicans saw a turnout increase of over 54,000 votes.
All four voting regions of the state saw increased GOP turnout (Chicago – 30 Cook
County townships – the 5 Collars and the 96 downstate counties). However, nearly 50% of the
Republican turnout came from the 96 downstate counties – a percentage increase of the total
GOP primary vote from 2010 of 2.4%. Immediate political speculation suggested this
downstate GOP surge was due in large part of Democrats and independents (mainly public
employees, and their family and friends) taking Republican ballots. However, a look at
Democratic downstate turnout shows that though this region has a turnout drop (66539 votes)
it increased its share of the statewide Democratic total vote by nearly 9%.
1-A. Republican Turnout – Chicago
Table 1 shows a 7677 vote increase in GOP Chicago turnout. The northwest side 41st
ward (4050 votes) and the southwest side 19th ward (3181 votes) were by far the biggest GOP
vote producers. The rest of the Top Ten were north side lakefront wards as well as other
northwest side wards.
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The low GOP turnout wards as expected were African-American south and west side
wards and a couple of heavily Hispanic wards. Number-wise, eleven Chicago wards had GOP
turnouts of less than 200 votes but all were above a 100 vote turnout. In the 2010 GOP
primary, ten wards had Republican turnouts of less than 100 voters – thereby revealing a slight
potential Republican uptick in the coming November general elections.
I-A. Republican Turnout – Suburban 30
Wheeling township in the northwest part of Cook County easily led the GOP-Suburban
30 turnout parade. Wheeling (11142 votes) was the only township to top a 10000+ GOP
turnout threshold as it easily bested the 2nd best turnout township - Maine (also in the
northwestern part of the county) by 2263 votes. Overall, ten townships had 5000+ turnouts
and most of these were northwest townships. Only Worth, Orland and Lyons in southwest
Cook made the top ten GOP turnout townships.
Finally, an interesting tidbit – in only twelve townships did Democratic turnouts beat
Republican turnouts. Except for Evanston and Niles townships – these Democratic turnout
victories were located in south suburban and near west suburban parts of the county.
I-A. Republican Turnout – Collars 5
DuPage county GOP turnout (93918 votes) topped the combined vote of the next two
highest GOP Collar turnouts (Will and Kane). On paper this should have been a huge boost for
the county’s native son and resident gubernatorial candidate – State Senator Kirk Dillard – but
as will be shown later in this report, this would not be the case. As Table 1 reveals, the Collars
had only a slight increase of GOP voters compared to 2010 and its percentage of the statewide
Republican primary vote dropped 2.1%
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I-A. Republican Turnout – Downstate 96
Central Illinois dominated downstate Republican turnout. Sangamon county led the
way (25372 votes) with McLean (23504) - Champaign (14683 and Peoria (14553) counties being
the other top five turnout counties. Only Winnebago county in northwestern Illinois (Rockford)
broke the central Illinois turnout monopoly with 20,674 votes.
Other high turnout counties were Madison and St. Clair in far southwestern Illinois;
Kendall a fast growing northeastern county; one other central Illinois county – Tazewell and two
more northwestern counties – Ogle and Rock Island. Obviously, the key question concerning
the downstate GOP turnout vote - was the potential Dillard/Democratic crossover factor impact
on the Republican gubernatorial race? This report will answer that question in Section II-C.
I-B. Democratic Turnout
The 2014 Democratic statewide primary was a low interest – low turnout event. Table 1
depicts an incredible vote drop-off compared to the 2010 primary (- 459357 votes). Leading
the drop-off parade was the Democratic bastion – the city of Chicago (-175414 votes).
II-B. Democratic Turnout – Chicago
The top Democratic turnout city was as usual the far southwest side 19th (Beverly 7335
votes). Close behind the 19th was the African-American south side 8th ward (7290 votes) which
was the long time stronghold of former Cook County Board President John Stroger. The other
“top” Democratic wards were five other mainly black south side wards (#21 - #34 - #7 - #6 - #9)
– another southwest side ward #13 (Speaker Michael Madigan’s home turf); two mixed race
south side wards #4 and #5 and one west side ward #29.
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At the low end of the “turnout table” were as usual many heavily Hispanic wards and
the upscale prominently white north lakefront wards #44 - #42 and #43. All three of the later
wards were top ten GOP turnout wards – demonstrating that many near north lakefront voters
jumped over to GOP’s gubernatorial primary battle.
II-B. Democratic Turnout – Suburban 30
Only two townships – Thornton (11201 votes) and Proviso (10800 votes) had 10000+
Democratic turnouts. Both of these townships had significantly higher turnouts than the top
Chicago wards – showing once again the growth of Democratic party strength in suburban
Cook.
Other top Democratic turnout townships reflected heavy African-American and liberal
residents. In the north – it was Evanston and Niles townships – in the south besides Thornton –
it was Rich – Bloom and Bremen. In the west besides Proviso – Oak Park made the list and
lastly, Worth township in southwestern Cook – which more and more resembles its neighbor to
the northeast – Chicago’s 19th ward.
II-B. Democratic Turnout – Collars 5
Like in Chicago and the Suburban 30 – Collars 5 had a major decrease in Democratic
primary turnout. Table 1 reveals a vote drop off compared to 2010 of over 82,000 votes.
Three counties had 10000+ voter turnouts – DuPage (15843) – Will (14840) and Lake
(11095). It should be noted Cook County’s Thornton township had a higher Democratic turnout
than either Lake, Kane or McHenry county. Clearly, the south suburbs led by Thornton
township has become a major player in statewide politics and elections. Any diminution of the
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Thornton township vote would be painful for a Democratic candidate in a close statewide
election.
II-B. Democratic Turnout – Downstate 96
The DS-96 Democratic numbers in Table 1 show one of the more remarkable aspects of
the 2014 primary. Though overall Democratic turnout was down from 2010 (- 66539 votes) the
DS percentage share of the statewide party vote increased nearly 9%.
The twin southwestern Illinois counties – St. Clair (16752) and Madison (12907) led the
Democratic turnout rankings. Champaign came in third with 8547 votes. Big counties made up
the most of the Top Ten turnout counties but, also on the list were two counties – Macoupin in
central Illinois and Randolph next to St. Clair in the southwestern part of the state.
Only fourteen DS-96 counties saw Democrats top the Republicans in turnout. Almost all
of these counties are located in southern Illinois stretching east to west. In all honesty, I am not
sure why the above occurred – the possible causes are debatable, but one thing is for sure –
Democrats will need a strong November campaign to turn out their voters in the heavily
populated northern sections of the state.
II-C. Republican Primary Results
Unquestionably, the Republican gubernatorial nomination fight dominated the 2014
Illinois primary. Businessman and primary winner Bruce Rauner exploded on the state’s
political scene with a massive amount of campaign cash. He controlled the airwaves with slick
ads and a well-thought-out campaign against three rivals – all of whom currently held political
office. His sometimes over the top denunciations of “Springfield politicians” was generally
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aimed at Democrats who control state government but in his “carpet bombing” of them, he
cleverly included – by inference – his GOP rivals as well.
In the other contested statewide race – long-time candidate and businessman, State
Senator James Oberweis defeated newcomer Douglas Truax in the U.S. Senate primary.
Oberweis will have the opportunity to challenge incumbent Senator Dick Durbin in November.
II-C. Republican Governor – Chicago
Table 2 reveals Bruce Rauner gaining a narrow margin over his chief rival, State Senator
Kirk Dillard. The two other candidates - State Senator Bill Brady and State Treasurer Dan
Rutherford won no wards and their combined vote was under 20%.
Rauner carried twenty-two wards. His biggest victories were along the north lakefront.
Rauner’s two 1000+ margin wins over Dillard (Dillard finished second in every one of Rauner’s
twenty-two ward wins) were in lakefront wards #42 (1056 votes) and #43 (1029 votes). Rauner
won every north lakefront ward except #49; he also won the gentrifying so-called “hipster”
wards #32 - #47 - #27. Clearly, his appeal in the upscale areas of the city was reflected in his
ward victories.
Rauner’s lakefront popularity can be seen even clearer in his ward percentages. These
wards gave him over two-thirds of their vote (#2 - #43 - #42) while five others gave him a
majority of their vote (#44 - #32 - #27 - #1 - #3). Special mention should be made of the lst and
3rd wards. Ward #1 is a near west side Hispanic and hipster ward that is gentrifying east to
west, while ward #3 stretches from the south side to the gentrifying south Loop area. Sections
of both of these wards were fertile territory for Rauner’s all-out air blitz.
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Kirk Dillard – short of money throughout most of the campaign, managed to still carry
twenty-eight Chicago wards. Unfortunately, for Dillard – his two best margin wards - #19 –
southwest side (888 votes) and #41 on the northwest side (575 votes) could not match Rauner’s
lakefront top margin wards. In all, Dillard had five other wards that gave him 100+ vote
margins over Rauner – all were located on the far northwest or southwest sides.
Keying Dillard’s second place finish in Chicago was the story of his best percentage
wards. Dillard won a 50%+ majority in five wards and except for ward #19 – the rest were
south side mainly African-American wards. Simply stated, these wards – overwhelmingly
Democratic – could not produce enough GOP voters so that Dillard’s percentage wins would
produce significant margin victories for him.
As for Brady and Rutherford – they were totally overmatched. Brady had twelve wards
where he garnered over 20% of the vote – almost all of these wards were either black or
Hispanic. Rutherford had only four wards where he won at least 10% of the vote and was not
even a minor factor anywhere else in the city.
II-C. Republican Governor – Suburban 30
Rauner swept all thirty suburban Cook County townships. Also, in all thirty townships
Dillard was the second place finisher.
Margin-wise, seven of Rauner’s top margin township wins were in the northwest
suburbs. New Trier (3789 votes) led the way with Northfield (2931 votes) and Palatine (209
votes) coming in second and third in the Rauner margin derby. Four southwest townships,
Orland, Lyons, Palos and Worth also gave Rauner 1000+ margins.
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As for percentage wins – New Trier township gave Rauner nearly 77% of their vote.
Barrington and Northfield were 60%+ for Rauner, while thirteen other townships gave the
political newcomer a majority of their vote. As expected, all but one of these 50%+ Rauner
victories were in the north and southwest parts of the county. Only River Forest (57.4%) in the
western part of suburban Cook was outside Rauner’s territorial dominance.
Dillard topped 40% of the vote in only Oak Park and Wheeling. In thirteen townships mainly south and west – he tallied over 30% of the vote – the exception here was Evanston
(38.6%). In nine other townships he received over 35% of the vote while in twelve others he
registered 30% to 35%. In seven townships, Dillard fell below 30% (Northfield – Barrington –
Palatine – Hanover – Norwood Park and Cicero). In the seventh – New Trier – he received only
15.1% of the vote (which was still good enough for a second place finish in this township).
Brady and Rutherford were even less of a factor in the Suburban 30 than they were in
Chicago. Table 2 shows that their combined vote was just over 15% and neither one of them
came close to contesting a single township.
Cicero (22.1%) was Brady’s only 20%+ township in the Suburban 30. In most of the
other townships, he received percentages in the “teens” and in seven of the mainly northern
townships, his percentages dropped to below 10%. Rutherford had no township give him at
least 10% of their vote. Cicero (9.5%) was his best percentage township while New Trier was
his worst – with Rutherford percentage of 2.6%.
II-C. Republican Governor – Collars 5
Rauner swept all the Collars. In perhaps the biggest surprise in this primary – Dillard, a
long-time collar county Republican was able to garner only a little more than a third of their
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vote while Rauner just missed capturing a majority of the collar vote. Like in the Suburban 30 –
Dillard came in second to Rauner in each of the Collars 5.
Margin-wise, Lake (11061 votes) was by far Rauner’s biggest collar county victory. His
lowest winning margin came in Kane (5174 votes) and DuPage (5811 votes).
As for percentages, Lake and McHenry GOP voters gave Rauner a majority of their vote.
His lowest percentage win was in Dillard’s home county of DuPage (45.8%). Only in this collar
county was Dillard competitive – losing the county by slightly more than 6.0% of the vote.
Dillard lost the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nomination in his home collar county region.
His vote percentages ranged from 39.5% in DuPage to 29.4% in Lake. Unlike in the 2010 GOP
gubernatorial primary, he was the “lone” collar candidate. Clearly, Rauner’s outsider campaign
– financed by tons of TV ad money – struck the right note with collar Republicans eager to take
back the state mansion – and in doing so, gave the fatal blow to Dillard’s nomination hopes.
Once again – Brady and Rutherford were non-players – this time in the Collars 5.
Brady’s collar percentages ranged from Will county high (13.6%) to a DuPage county low
(10.6%). Rutherford again brought up the far rear. He had a high percentage in McHenry
county (5.1%) to a low percentage in DuPage county (4.1%).
Overall, Rauner defeated Dillard by 35,458 votes in the collars, while Dillard lost the
state to Rauner by only 23814 votes. Obviously, if Dillard could have just been competitive with
Rauner in his home turf – he – not Rauner would have become the 2014 Republican
gubernatorial nominee.
II-C. Republican Governor – DS-96
Table 2 reveals a convincing DS-96 victory for Dillard over Rauner by 39,080 votes.
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However, given the disaster Dillard faced in the northeast part of the state – the DuPage county
State Senator needed even a more lopsided triumph over his rival. Obviously, complicating
Dillard’s need to demolish Rauner downstate, was the performance here of both Brady and
Rutherford – two downstaters. Unlike in Chicago, Suburban 30 and Collars 5 – both
downstaters (especially Brady) showed some electoral strength against the two front-runners.
Rauner won twenty-seven DS-96 counties. Most were located in the north, northwest
and north central parts of the state – though Rauner did carry St. Clair in southwestern Illinois.
Rock Island (2109 votes) gave him his biggest margin victory while Kendall (1004 votes) was the
only other county providing him a 1000+ margin.
Percentage-wise, Rock Island (47.2% led the way while seven other counties (Mercer –
DeKalb – Kendall – Kankakee – LaSalle – Henry and Gundy) were in the 40%+ range.
Dillard’s best margin county – by far – was Sangamon (11139 votes) the home of the
State Capitol. Amazingly, Dillard’s Sangamon margin over Rauner was greater than Rauner’s
margin over him in Lake county – a huge collar county. In twelve other counties, Dillard beat
Rauner with 1000+ margins. Adams county – the home of his running mate, State
Representative Jill Tracy, was his second best DS-96 margin county (3321 votes) while Peoria
(2447 votes) was his only other 2000+ margin county. Almost all of Dillard’s 1000+ margin wins
were Central Illinois – neighbors of Sangamon county – though he did well in the southern
Jackson and Menard counties. Nevertheless, whether these central Illinois voters were
Democratic or independent crossovers or traditional Republicans – it seems probably there was
a public employee and union connection to Dillard’s strength in this region.
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Percentage-wise, Dillard’s DS-96 vote power becomes even clearer. Nine counties gave
him 60% of their vote with Brown county coming in at nearly 80%, while Adams county was at
almost 70%. Overall, eighteen DS-96 counties gave Dillard a majority of their vote and it’s key
to remember that unlike in the northeast part of the state – in DS-96 – it was often a three or
four man vote contest.
Brady carried four DS-96 counties (Mason 35.4% – Wayne 33.8% - Washington – 33.7%
and McLean (his home county – 31.6%). Given Brady’s long history representing this region in
the Illinois General Assembly – his vote performance here was – in a word – “shocking.”
Brady’s overall DS-96 showing saw him garnering county percentages ranging from the
mid-teens to the high 20% levels. Overall, downstater Brady came in third in DS-96 – losing to a
couple opponents from the northeastern part of the state – indeed – it was a dramatic
turnaround from his 2010 run for the state mansion.
State Treasurer Rutherford – another downstater (Livingston county) barely won 10% of
the DS-96 vote. He triumphed in only three counties (Livingston – 50.4% - Wabash – 29.2% Hardin – 29.0%). In fifty-one counties, he received less than 10% of the vote.
If Brady’s DS-96 performance was “shocking” – Rutherford’s was “embarrassing.” To be
sure, the accusations about inappropriate conduct by a former state treasurer employee played
a big role in turning his campaign into a near total disaster. In retrospect, Rutherford should
have withdrawn from the contest weeks before primary day – given the above controversy – he
never had a chance to be competitive – let alone win.
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II-D. United States Senate – Chicago
Given all the publicity generated by the party’s gubernatorial nomination slugfest – the
GOP’s Senate primary was more of a shadow boxing contest. The better known and financed
candidate defeated a relatively unknown and under-financed opponent. This scenario worked
out perfectly for the victor – State Senator James Oberweis, overcame a late campaign “MIF”
(Missing In Florida) to defeat Douglas Truax by over 90,000 votes.
Table 3 shows Truax narrowly beating Oberweis in Chicago by 2355 votes. Truax had
400+ vote margins in three near northside/lakeside wards - #42 - #2 - #43. He also won
significant 200+ margins (for a GOP primary in Chicago) in other lakefront wards as well as the
southwest side 19th and northwest side 39th.
Percentage-wise, Truax received 60%+ in five wards – three lakefront - #2 - #42 - #43
and two near southside wards - #5 and #4. And, though Truax and his opponent each won
twenty-five wards – Truax’s best ward victories came in wards with “significant” Republican
voters.
Oberweis had only two wards give him 100+ vote margins – both on the southwest side,
#13 (132 votes) and #23 (118 votes). His other ward victories were scattered around the city,
but none were on the northwest and southwest sides or on the north lakefront.
Perhaps the most disturbing insight for Oberweis concerning his Chicago performance
was that all his top percentage wards were located in heavily Democratic African/American and
Hispanic wards. In his November tussle with incumbent Senator Dick Durbin – Oberweis faces a
real possibility that his weakness against Truax in wards with Republicans may find his
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campaign facing a landslide losing margin in Chicago. In fact, Oberweis’ best primary city wards
will be his worse general election wards.
II-D. United States Senate – Suburban 30
Truax carried eighteen of thirty townships in beating Oberweis by 6016 votes. Truax
had three townships give him 1000+ vote margins – Northfield (1872 votes) – Lyons (1258
votes) and New Trier (1161 votes). In general, there were no significant regional vote bases for
either candidate in the Suburban 30 – though on the whole Truax did best in more upscale
townships.
Five townships provided Truax with 60%+ of their vote – Evanston 69% - Oak Park 67% Northfield 65% - River Forest 62% - New Trier 60%. Again, the above are among the most
affluent townships in suburban Cook County.
Oberweis had one 1000+ vote margin township – Schaumburg (1212 votes). His other
major margin wins came in Hanover – Wheeling – Cicero – Elk Grove and Thornton townships.
Percentage-wise, only Cicero – 67% and Hanover – 61% gave Oberweis 60%+ of the vote. In
these geographically mixed returns, both candidates had wins in all parts of the Suburban 30 –
unfortunately for Oberweis, many of his opponent’s wins had larger margins.
II-D. United States Senate – Collars 5
Table 3 reveals a close race between Truax and Oberweis in the Collars 5. Truax won by
a little less than 4%.
Truax carried three of the five counties – DuPage – Kane and Will. Undoubtedly, his
best collar was DuPage (9654 vote margin/54.5%). In Kane, his numbers were 2911 vote
margin/54.1% and in Will – 1711 vote margin/52.1%.
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Oberweis won the other two collars, McHenry – 4434 vote margin/57.7% and Lake 906
vote margin/51.1%. Like Dillard in the gubernatorial primary, Oberweis – a collar county State
Senator – could not win his region. However, unlike Dillard and due to the fact that this was a
two-man contest – Oberweis’ downstate vote power would provide margins to overwhelm his
opponent.
II-D. United States Senate – Downstate 96
DS-96 was a landslide for Oberweis, as he won 65.2% of the vote and registered a
whopping 109,248 vote margin over Truax. As Table 3 reveals, Oberweis easily overcame his
losses in the state’s other three voting regions, by unleashing his downstate firepower. How
did he do it? He did it everywhere. Truax was able to win only one county – DeKalb and even
there he was barely able to gain a victory. His DeKalb numbers were 71 vote margin/50.5%.
On the other hand, Oberweis had 6000+ vote margins in McLean and Sangamon
counties, 4000+ vote margins in Madison, St. Clair and Champaign, 2000+ vote margins in seven
more counties and finally twenty-four 1000+ margin county wins.
Percentage-wise, Oberweis’ vote appeal in the DS-96 was even more impressive. Led by
Monroe county (79.7%) Oberweis had twenty-five 70%+ county victories and equally
astounding in only twelve of his winning counties, did Oberweis not reach the 60% vote level.
Perhaps no other race comparison reveals the importance of money in modern-day campaigns.
Truax had little money to spend on advertising and thus his name recognition remained low in
DS-96 counties from the campaign’s start to finish. Compare this to Rauner --both men were
unknowns as the campaign begun, but at the end Rauner was a household name throughout
the state, while Truax remained – Who? Name recognition in DS-96 provided the votes for an
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Oberweis victory as the party’s gubernatorial showdown ate up most of the media’s political
reporting.
III. Democratic Primary Results
As Table 1 revealed, Illinois Democrats had a sleepy 2014 primary. The turnout drop-off
from the 2010 primary was over 459,000 votes. Governor Pat Quinn had a challenger named
Tio Hardiman – an African/American community organizer. Hardiman made headlines in May,
2013 by being arrested for domestic violence – even though the charge was dropped – it cost
him his high profile position as Executive Director of Cease Fire – an organization dedicated to
reducing violence on Chicago’s south and west sides.
Table 4 shows that Hardiman, with little money or publicity, garnered over 28% of the
vote against Quinn, while carrying thirty downstate counties. Obviously, this vote was
overwhelmingly anti-Quinn and not pro-Hardiman. Nevertheless, some pundits suggested it
shows diminished support among Democrats for the Governor. Maybe yes – maybe no – but it
is important to remember in the 1994 Republican gubernatorial primary – incumbent Jim Edgar
saw his challenger Jack Roeser win 25% of the GOP vote. Edgar went on to trounce Democrat
Dawn Clark Netsch in the general election .
III-E. Governor – Chicago
Quinn swept all 50 Chicago wards. His best two margin wards, #19 (3984 votes) –
southwest side predominantly white and #8 – (3807 votes) south side ward predominantly
black. The Governor had sixteen other wards provide him with 2000+ margins and they too,
were generally scattered throughout the city.
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The vote percentage figures tell an even clearer story of this contest. Quinn’s lowest
winning percentage was in the west side 37th ward (72.8%). Twenty wards gave the incumbent
80%+ of their vote with the near north lakefront wards #44 - #43 - #42 – all coming in above
87%.
As for Hardiman – he held Quinn under 75% of the vote in five wards, #37 - #30 - #36 #15 - #17 – all predominantly African/American wards. Hardiman gained 1000+ votes in eleven
wards – again these are mostly black – though he did go over 1000 votes in the 19th ward
(mainly because of its relatively large turnout – it was also Quinn’s best margin ward) and the
mixed race south side 4th ward.
III-E. Governor – Suburban 30
As he did in Chicago, the Governor swept all thirty suburban Cook townships. The
Governor’s lowest township percentage was Stickney 68.6%. In ten townships, Quinn topped
80% - all these landslide Quinn wins were in north and western parts of the county.
Thornton and Proviso gave Quinn 5000+ margin wins with Evanston (4936 votes) close
behind. Overall, fourteen other townships provided the Governor with 1000+ vote margins.
Besides Stickney – Hardiman kept Quinn below 75% in four other townships – Berwyn –
Lemont – Leyden – Norwood Park. Why? Not sure. The immediate response would be race,
but none of these five townships have a significant amount of African/American voters.
III-E. Governor – Collars 5
Again, as in Chicago and he Suburban 30 – Quinn swept the field. His Collars 5
percentages ranged from Lake 81.9% to Will 71.5%. DuPage (8864 votes) provided Quinn’s
biggest victory margin, while McHenry was at the low end (1480 votes). Hardiman was a non18
factor throughout the Collars 5 – though his overall percentage of the vote was a few points
higher than his Chicago and Suburban 30 numbers.
III-E. Governor – DS-96
Downstate provided the only excitement in the Quinn v. Hardiman primary battle. The
unknown and unpublicized Hardiman carried thirty counties and won an impressive 43.5% of
the DS-96 Democratic vote.
Most of Hardiman’s wins came in the southern part of the state though a few southcentral Illinois counties also joined his victory column. Hardiman did not carry a single county
north of I-80.
It is likely that Quinn’s efforts to close southern Illinois correctional facilities was behind
much of Hardiman’s vote totals in the region. Marion county gave Hardiman 72.4% of its vote,
while six other southern counties – Shelby – Union – Alexander – Clinton – Washington and
Jefferson gave him 60%+ vote.
Shelby (801 votes) and Randolph (626 votes) gave Hardiman his best margin victories.
Twelve other counties (almost all south) gave him 100+ margin wins.
As for Quinn, he ran best in the northern and southwestern part of the state (St. Clair,
Madison and Monroe counties). In three counties – DeKalb – Kendall and Monroe – Quinn had
winning percentages over 70%, while twenty-two other counties were 60%+ for the Governor.
Margin-wise, St. Clair led the way (4455 vote margin). Champaign and Rock Island were
in the 2000+ category and coming in at 1000+ for Quinn, were Peoria, McLean, Sangamon and
Madison counties.
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Clearly, the Quinn campaign must be concerned about his DS-96 showing. Besides the
prison issue – the Governor could be facing a Sheila Simon problem. The Lieutenant Governor –
a Jackson county resident (Carbondale) and the daughter of southern Illinois’ legendary U.S.
Senator, Paul Simon “opted-out” of running with Quinn for re-election, and instead is running
for State Comptroller. Whatever the reasons for her move – Quinn has lost his southern
connection and his new running mate, Paul Vallas will likely prove of little help in this part of
the state.
III-F. State Representative - 26th District
This all-Chicago-state representative primary contest between incumbent Christian
Mitchell and challenger Jhatayn “Jay” Travis turned into a high-priced duel between Democratic
leaders Mayor Rahm Emanuel, County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and other party
luminaries (Mitchell) v. the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) led by Karen Lewis (Travis). It may
also be seen as a prelude to the upcoming February, 2015 Chicago mayoral election.
Both Mitchell and Travis were articulate and ambitious African/American candidates.
The district (which in many ways resembles the one that then State Senator Barack Obama
represented) spans ten wards and stretches from the far south side to the near north side Gold
Coast.
The only real issue in this direct-mail driven expensive primary, was Mitchell’s vote for
pension reform and Chicago public schools in general.
As Table 5 reveals, Mitchell won by 556 votes, with 53% of the vote. It also shows that
he only carried four of the district’s ten wards - #2 - #42 - #43 on the near north side and the
south side’s 8th ward. Travis’ six winning wards were all located on the south side.
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Mitchell won because two of his ward victories -- #42 (701 vote margin/77.7%) and #2
(519 vote margin/79.8%) (which make up a significant chunk of the district) gave him
overwhelming support. Both of these wards will most likely be Rahm Emanuel strongholds in
the coming mayoral election. Also, contributing to his victory was his ability to be competitive
in south side wards where CTU linked Mitchell with Emanuel and even threw in the mayor’s
policy of school closings.
Mitchell’s hard won victory aside, the significance of this race is the looming 2015
mayoral election. CTU and Lewis want Emanuel OUT. Subtlety will not be part of their overall
strategy. Emanuel – one of the least subtle men alive – will go all out to win re-election – no
matter who or how many oppose him. The Mitchell/Travis battle shows the north lakefront will
be Emanuel country and any challenger(s) must find a vote base somewhere in the city to be
competitive.
Conclusion
Undoubtedly, the 2014 Illinois Governor’s race will dominate the state’s political scene
in the upcoming months. This report shows that both men have vote weakness in downstate
Illinois – Quinn/Southern and Rauner/Central. In a close contest, how each candidate
overcomes their regional DS-96 unpopularity – could decide the election.
Beyond downstate – both candidates must invigorate and energize their party’s vote
base – Quinn/Chicago – Rauner/Collars 5 and Republican areas of the Suburban 30. Illinois is in
a financial crisis – big and small cities and other local governments are also facing budget shortfalls. And of course, there is the issue of PENSIONS. Over-the-top rhetoric and thirty second
21
ads will not solve these daunting dollar problems – hopefully voters throughout Illinois will
demand realistic answers to these issues and vote accordingly.
Whatever happens in November, 2014, the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University
will be there to analyze – criticize and praise all candidates’ vote performances.
22
Illinois Voter Turnout
Major Party Regional Breakdown
Comparing 2014 to 2010 Primary
Table 1
REPUBLICANS
Total Vote
2010
% of State
Total Vote
2010
Total Vote
2014
% of State
Total Vote
2014
Vote Gain or
Loss
% Vote Gain or
Loss
DEMOCRATS
Total Vote
2010
% of State
Total Vote
2010
Total Vote
2014
% of State
Total Vote
2014
Vote Gain or
Loss
% Vote Gain or
Loss
City of
Chicago
Sub 30
Cook
County
Totals
Collars 5
Downstate
96
Statewide
Totals
34666
127212
161878
250978
370204
783060
4.4%
16.2%
20.6%
32.1%
47.3%
100%
42343
127579
169922
251561
415911
837394
5.1%
15.2%
20.3%
30.0%
49.7%
100%
+7677
+367
+8044
+583
+45707
+54334
-.3%
-2.1%
+2.4%
+.7%
-1.0%
City of
Chicago
Sub 30
Cook
County
Totals
Collars 5
Downstate
96
Statewide
Totals
357697
238450
596147
134056
229318
959521
37.2%
24.9%
62.1%
14.0%
23.9%
100%
182283
103445
285728
51657
162779
500164
36.4%
20.7%
57.1%
10.3%
32.6%
100%
-175414
-135005
-310419
-82399
-66539
-459357
-.9%
-4.1%
-5.0%
-3.7%
+8.7%
23
Republican – Governor
2014 Primary
Table 2
*Rauner
*Dillard
Brady
Rutherford
Chicago
Votes
Margin
%
Wards Won
17,900
1894
43.1%
-22-
16006
5285
2366
38.5%
-28-
12.7%
-0-
5.7%
-0-
Sub 30
Votes
Margin
%
Townships Won
66279
25542
52.5%
-30-
40737
13411
5851
32.3%
-0-
10.6%
-0-
4.6%
-0-
Five Collars
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
121593
35458
49.1%
-5-
86135
28555
11439
34.8%
-0-
11.5%
-0-
4.6%
-0-
123162
162242
39080
40.1%
-62-
76457
42292
18.9%
-4-
10.5%
-3-
305120
123708
61948
37.2%
-62-
15.1%
-4-
7.6%
-3-
Downstate 96
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
Statewide Totals
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
30.5%
-27-
328934
23814
40.1%
-33-
*Margins based on Rauner v. Dillard
24
Republican – United States Senator
2014 Primary
Table 3
James Oberweis
Douglas Truax
17578
19933
2355
53.1%
-25-
Chicago
Votes
Margin
%
Wards Won
Sub 30
Votes
Margin
%
Townships Won
Five Collars
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
46.9%
-25-
56469
47.5%
-12-
114176
48.1%
-2-
62485
6016
52.5%
-18-
123193
9017
51.9%
-3-
Downstate 96
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
234874
109248
65.2%
-95-
125626
Statewide Totals
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
423097
91860
56.1%
-97-
331237
34.8%
-1-
43.9%
-5-
25
Democrat – Governor
2014 Primary
Table 4
Pat Quinn
Tio Hardiman
Votes
Margin
%
Wards Won
130215
95625
79%
-50-
34590
Sub 30
Votes
Margin
%
Townships Won
76263
56821
79.7%
-30-
19442
Five Collars
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
37377
26031
76.7%
-5-
11346
Downstate 96
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
77963
17841
56.%
-66-
60122
Statewide Totals
Votes
Margin
%
Counties Won
321818
196318
71.9%
-72-
125500
Chicago
21%
-0-
20.3%
-0-
23.3%
-0-
43.6%
-30-
28.1%
-30-
26
Democrat – State Representative
26th District
2014 Primary
Table 5
Christian Mitchell
Jhatayn Travis
Ward
Votes
%
Margin
Votes
%
2
3
4
5
7
8
10
20
42
43
561
276
1376
566
741
126
48
202
983
70
79.8%
41.5%
45.9%
46.4%
48.1%
52.7%
35.8%
41.6%
77.7%
76.1%
519
142
389
1622
653
800
113
86
284
282
22
20.2%
58.5%
54.1%
53.6%
51.9%
47.3%
64.2%
58.4%
22.3%
23.9%
Vote
Total
Vote %
Margin
13
701
48
4949
4393
53.0%
556
47.0%
Margin
113
246
87
59
38
82
27