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Monsoon / Multi-Hazards Hazards Early Warning / Monitoring in Pakistan
Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD)1 has a broad mandate of supporting agro-based economic activities, air
and maritime traffic safety, disaster mitigation efforts and disseminating weather forecasts to numerous end
users;
With respect to fulfilling the disaster mitigation mandate World Metrological Organization (WMO) supports PMD
in disseminating forecasts and advisories on cyclonic activity and other hazards over North Arabian Sea;
Other national actors whose capacities are utilized to reinforce Monsoon Hazards Early Warning are Water and
Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Provincial Irrigation Departments. Both monitor flood prone rivers
/water channels’ flows and WAPDA deploys a time sensitive telemetry system for this purpose;
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Link http://www.bing.com/search?q=pakistan+metreological+department&src=IE-SearchBox&Form=IE8SRC
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In addition Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO)2, maritime agencies like
Pakistan Navy, Maritime Security Agency (MSA) and air space users like Pakistan Air Force also reinforce
monsoon weather and impact monitoring efforts;
Following devastating floods of 1992, national Flood Early Warning system was reinforced through creation of
Lahore based Floods Forecasting Division, an affiliate organization of PMD. It is the national focal point for
monsoon early warning dissemination and broadly its mandate covers:
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Dissemination of daily floods forecasts during the monsoon season3; and
Flood situation reporting like disseminating data on flood levels in various rivers ;
FFD based Riverine Floods Forecasting System (refer to the Organogram on page 3) benefits from the inputs of:
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Network of nation- wide weather forecasting radars;
Doppler radars that provide quantified flood warning in the Kashmir catchment 4;
Telemetric system which transmits real time inputs on flood quantums;
Satellite coverage which includes indigenous capacity, support from Chinese and WMD satellite network; and
Flood information received from India as part of Indus Water Treaty
However, for tropical cyclone early warning PMD maintains Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Karachi and it is
linked to WMO’s regional Warning Centre in New Delhi (India);
Similarly PMD benefits for tsunami early warning from Japan Meteorological Agencies (JMA) and US Tsunami
Early Warning Centre in Hawai;
PMD also undertakes Drought and Seismological hazards monitoring;
Brief Analysis of National Monsoon Hazards Forecasting System
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Vulnerable regions with respect to riverine floods early warning are: Upper KP (along rivers Kabul and
Swat), Gligit Baltistan (GB), Upper AJK and where Chenab enters Pakistan in eastern Punjab. Early Warning
for major floods in these areas span from 6-18 hours;
Flood early warning coverage of Kabul and Indus catchments in upper KP is relatively weak;
There is no effective early warning system in place for flash floods which tend to occur country wide:
across GB, upper KP, upper AJK, along Indus Right Bank through KP, Punjab and Balochistan. Only one
telemetry based system is deployed to early warn Rawalpindi of flash floods along Leh Nullah 5;
Past experiences affirm that accuracy of seasonal forecasts is tentative at best as accurate forecasts
normally cover shorter periods: a fortnight or even less;
Please note that PMD’s Monsoon Seasonal Forecast is anticipated before 10 June;
However, past experiences affirm relatively more accurate tropical cyclone monitoring and land-fall
predictions which facilitated proactive responses.
SUPRCO’s services are utilized more for gauging disaster impact through satellite imagery.
The official monsoon season in Pakistan spans 15 July to 15 September
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Kashmir catchment mainly feeds the four eastern rivers: Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej.
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Most of Islamabad constitutes its catchment
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Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Floods Early Warning Organogram
Flood Early Warning
Weather &
Flood Radars
Satellite Cover
WAPDA
Field
Stations
INDIA-IWT
FED
Agencies
Armed
Forces
Telemetry
FFD Lahore
NDMA
PDMA
Provincial
Irrigation
Agencies
Dept
DCOs