TEPPC Data Sharing Team Concerns with Current WECC Data Sharing Policy July 16, 2015 Background Early in 2015, TEPPC formed a task force to review WECC’s data sharing policy based on concerns that the current policy may restrict the ability of TEPPC and its subcommittees’ and work groups’ abilities to complete important planning work. The task force considered the following primary questions: What data does TEPPC and its stakeholders need that is currently unavailable or restricted as a result of the WECC Information Sharing Policy and/or the Peak Reliability UNDA? What will happen if data identified above is not obtained and/or not available for public posting? Are there workarounds that could be implemented if this data is not available? How would releasing and/or using the protected data be harmful? Stakeholder needs for data to support TEPPC studies and their own studies are changing commensurate with the evolution of the tools and models. In general, TEPPC’s analytic platform is becoming much more data intensive across increasingly diverse time frames. This report presents the results of the task force’s discussions. WESTERN ELECTRICITY COORDINATING COUNCIL 155 North 400 West, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114 Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 2 1. Is there data that TEPPC and its stakeholders need that is currently unavailable or restricted as a result of the WECC Information Sharing Policy and/or the Peak Reliability UNDA? Data Needed Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Comments Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy 1. TEPPC Planning Data 1.1. Projected peak demand (years 410) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information 1.2. Projected energy forecasts (years 410) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information 1.3. Scheduled peak hour outages (years 410) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information WESTERN ELECTRICITY COORDINATING COUNCIL 155 North 400 West, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114 Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 3 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments 1.4. Actual year peak outages Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information 1.5. Projected increment al resources (years 410) Mapped to bus level Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information 1.6. Plant retiremen t informati on Mapped to bus level Ten-year forecast, by year This is public information 2. Confidential Information under Section 1500 of the NERC Rules of Procedure or the WECC Confidentiality Policy W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 4 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments 2.1. Projected peak demand (years 1-3) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Years 1-3 Whoever needs the data can get it, but cannot share it publicly unless it is aggregated or averaged. This limitation is inconsistent with TEPPC’s policy of sharing all analyses and data transparently and publicly. 2.2. Projected energy forecasts (years 1-3) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Years 1-3 Whoever needs the data can get it, but cannot share it publicly unless it is aggregated or averaged. This limitation is inconsistent with TEPPC’s policy of sharing all analyses and data transparently and publicly. 2.3. Scheduled peak hour outages (years 1-3) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Years 1-3 Whoever needs the data can get it, but cannot share it publicly unless it is aggregated or averaged. This limitation is inconsistent with TEPPC’s policy of sharing all W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 5 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments analyses and data transparently and publicly. 2.4. Project increment al resources (years 1-3) Monthly, by TEPPC Load Area (BAA) Years 1-3 3. Peak Reliability UNDA covered Data 3.1. Actual line, transform er, and path flow and limit data W Hourly E S T E R N Historic, for past 10 years E Whoever needs the data can get it, but cannot share it publicly unless it is aggregated or averaged. This limitation is inconsistent with TEPPC’s policy of sharing all analyses and data transparently and publicly. This data may not be confidential. It is shared today and the data policy did not change that. We may need to check with Chris Albrecht. This information may only be shared with signatories of the UNDA in accordance with the terms therein. Is this data not shared because of the WECC data sharing policy or because of the Peak UNDA? If it is the UNDA, is it a WECC or a Peak issue? TEPPC relies on Peak Energy historical path/line data to gain an understanding of the historical use of the transmission system. This information is important to TEPPC’s transmission L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 6 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments expansion planning effort as it quantifies historical transmission path usage – both of which are helpful in a robust planning process. This information is also useful for verifying model representation for power flow and production costing analysis. 3.2. Scheduled line, transform er, and path flow and limit data Hourly Historic, for past 10 years Same as 3.1 3.3. Actual generatio n data Hourly, by unit Historic, for past 10 years TEPPC relies on historical hydro generation hourly data as input in all three hydro modeling algorithms: about 35% of total hydro plants are modeled using as actual W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 7 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments hourly shapes; PSLF & HTC uses historic data to generate the P & K factors. Currently TEPPC uses NREL wind and solar hourly forecasts. Since the NREL data is model generated, TEPPC can use actual hourly data from Peak Energy to calibrate and improve model generated data. 3.4. Historic demand data W Hourly, by BAA E S T E R N Historic, for past 10 years E TEPPC relies on BA-level historical load shapes as an input into its production cost datasets. TEPPC utilizes 2005 historic load shapes in its current planning model, but would like to have the flexibility to use historical hourly load profiles for other years. Hourly load shapes are required to break down the monthly LRS peak and energy load L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 8 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments forecasts to hourly loads, as required in TEPPC production cost modeling. 3.5. Energy Efficiency (EE), DemandSide Managem ent (DSM) and Distribute d Generatio n (DG) data Hourly, by BAA 4. Intra-Hour Load Data 4.1. Oneminute or fiveminute load data that can W Oneminute or five-minute load data One-minute or five-minute load data is needed to determine flexibility reserves estimates in TEPPC simulations. The intra-hour database E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 9 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed be used to determine flexibility reserves. Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments was previously developed in the Variable Generation Submitted (VGS) been turned over to TEPPC. The alternative approach to to using historic intrahour one minute data as shapes when developing the intra-hour forecast would be to contract with the Norwest National Labs who uses an algorithm that includes using load forecast errors when breaking down the hourly data to five minute or fifteen minute data. In addition to determining flexibility reserves, stakeholders are calling on TEPPC to update the intrahour production cost database that is used in EIM and RTO analysis. Remaining one minute data includes wind and W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 10 Time Granularity Period Needed Needed Data Needed Access Limited by WECC Policy, Peak UNDA or Specific Reliability Challenge(s) Other Created By Current Policy Comments solar that is covered by NREL. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L TEPPC Data Sharing Team Concerns with Current WECC Data Sharing Policy June 19, 2015 2. What will happen if data needed above is not obtained and/or not available for public posting? Question Response What will happen if load data for years 1-3 is not available? An alternative way to build year 1-3 loads is to extrapolate between historic data and year 4-10 forecast. Forecasts for this time horizon are inherently imprecise, and, thus, their market sensitivity is limited. However, load forecasts within a 12 month horizon can be commercially sensitive. Which specific analyses/reports cannot be produced without the data identified above? TEPPC approved building a near term database for several purposes including to calibrate the model and future dispatch and to address stakeholders needs. For example, BPA, ColumbiaGrid, and NTTG want to build interim year dispatch data, starting with the near term database (operating year). However, this data base could not be constructed without data for the operating year and the next five years. If granular data cannot be released, could aggregated data be made available? If so, at what level could it be released? Would it allow completion of the desired analyses/reports? Hourly supply and demand data for loads and resources are essential for building the hourly database. “Must have” data include: Historic hourly loads at the BAA level Historic hourly DSM, EE and distributed generation data at the BAA level Hydro generation data at the unit level Is there any problem with obtaining the required data by signing an NDA? Would doing so allow completion of the desired analyses/reports? The foundation of TEPPC was based on FERC Order 890 that calls for open and transparent process that continues under FERC Order 1000. Are there work arounds that could be implemented if this data is not available? Questions to address: Should all data covered by the UNDA be truly WESTERN ELECTRICITY COORDINATING COUNCIL 155 North 400 West, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114 Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 12 Question Response considered sensitive data in view of the facts that: Partial sets of path flows are posted on the BPA and CAISO sites; FERC Order 714 allows posting BAA level historic hourly data with a one-year lag; Utilities post monthly forecasts for years 1-3 in their IRPs, although not all utilities file IRPs; and EPA CEMS posts thermal plant historic hourly data. As a last resort, an NDA may be required. How much error is introduced by extrapolating the data between known data points? Why would this not work? Is there any other way of producing meaningful results without this data? This is hard to predict. Different utilities use different methodologies for developing their load forecasts (e.g., some may use econometric models, others may use sophisticated tools that factors in stochastics and socioeconomics.) Prior to the latest changes to the Information sharing policy, no year 1 to 3 load data was available. How did TEPPC or its stakeholders do their work at that time? This data is now classified as Transmission Function Information and is now available if an NDA is executed. Is this not a better situation than before when it was not shared externally? Building a near term, operating case is new in TEPPC modeling. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L Data Sharing Team Preliminary Report 13 3. How would releasing and/or using the protected data be harmful? Question Response How would data providers be harmed? The rationale that year-ahead and year 1-3 load forecast data provided to the LRS is commercially sensitive is not supportable. Much of this load forecast data is already available publicly through IRP filings. It is a common practice among utility regulators and governing bodies to keep such information public to maintain transparency and provide for outside review and quality improvement. Which specific entities would be harmed by the release (e.g., companies, industries, stakeholders)? Smaller utilities such as COOPs and Municipalities may choose to not share “monthly” level data, so as to not compromise their respective position as they may consider “monthly” data to be commercially sensitive. However, most smaller entities’ loads are part of aggregate BAA loads. W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L