Meeting Notes
Committee:
Data Work Group
Committee
Leader:
Jamie Austin
From Date
10:30 – 10:40
10:40 – 10:45
10:45 – 11:00
11:00 – 11:30
11:30 – 11:50
October 17, 2014
To Date
November 11, 2014
11:50 – 12:00
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Welcome, Introductions
WECC Anti-Trust Policy Summary
Existing Wind Profiles & Assumptions in the TEPPC 2024 CC
Framing the Issue
NREL New Data set:
o Comparison of methodology & results
o Data availability and necessary implementation support
Next Steps
Meeting Objectives
Project developers suggested at Ocotober TEPPC\TAS meetings that the old Vestas V-90-3 wind turbine
data used as “middle-ground” technology in developing the 2004-2006 wind curves is dated, and if TEPPC
continues to use them it will definitely put their respective projects at a disadvantage.
In addressing these concerns, DWG is hosting this meeting to explore practical options that include adjusting
the power curve to reflect newer technologies or possibly using equivalent-- year energy shapes from the
“new” NREL data (years: 2007 – 2013), representing median conditions.
Existing Wind Profiles & Assumptions in the TEPPC 2024 CC
Jamie welcomed participants and explained that the reason for having the meeting is to respond to concerns
raised by stakeholders at the October TEPPC quarterly meeting that the wind profiles in the TEPPC 2024CC
are dated as they were configured based on old wind turbine technology. Although, NREL has just finished
compiling wind shapes for years 2007 through 2013, they did not redo years 2004 through 2006. The need
to continue using year 2005 shapes is dictated by having coincident energy shapes from the same year for all
energies: e.g., wind, solar, hydro, loads, EE, etc.
Jamie reviewed the agenda with participants and turned the meeting over to Dan Beckstead to start by
explaining fixes that were already implemented in the case following consolations by E3 and NREL that lead
to using highest capacity factors from available wind profiles.
Dan explained that stakeholders initiated the TEPPC review to identify possible discrepancies between the
results with the Capacity Factors currently being used in the model and expected performance. Ultimately
WECC used the WREZ-expected generation data to create regional capacity factor targets, creating the
TEPPC CC profiles to match expected output.
Further Dan explained that the approach used to determine capacity factor, based on capacity factor for 1500
or 3000 MW blocks, depending on resources available in the zone. See Dan’s enclosed presentation for
more details.
Acrobat Document
1
Dan concluded that there are sufficient profiles in the 2005 NREL wind dataset to meet historical capacity
factor goals without sacrificing locational diversity.
Steven Wallace inquired if the method WECC used for choosing wind profiles is the opposite of the method of
using power curves …have you tested their differences?
Dan responded that tried to get in-line with expectations.
Bill Hosie asked for clarification, as it applies to existing wind?
Dan explained, we’ve separated our process into two separate sections targeting existing and future plans.
Steven asked if Vestas V-90 technology was used when converting wind to electrical energy.
Dan responded that they did not use a specific model, but rather that the estimation was based on what is
expected for the targeted region.
Ben reminded the group that the staff did not have better data a year ago when the work began on the
TEPPC 2024 CC.
Bill Pasco concluded that on slide 13, ended up with 35% for CO-SE whereas the table “results”-slide 11 has
42% recommended capacity factor. This is a big gap and that leads him to question gaps for other areas?
Framing the Issue
Bob Burner, Pat Shanahan and Bill Hosie representing Duke Energy suggested an approach for fixing the
NREL 2005 wind profiles is simple, just apply a multiplier correction; the multiplied would be upgrading wind
power outputs from Vestas 90 to higher performance, based on currently available turbines. See Bob’s
enclosed presentation:
Microsoft PowerPoint
Presentation
Duke Energy is simply presenting the following “PROPOSAL” for consideration:
1. Starting with NREL 2005 data,, representing V90 that produces the maximum of 35% annual capacity
factor for better quality wind areas
2. Apply the GE 1.6-100 turbine 46% capacity factor, maintaining the use of the NREL 2005 hourly data
(e.g., 2x2 Km square and 10 minutes increments).
3. No other change is necessary but eventually can implement the better data NREL now has.
4. The proposal applies to all future wind. No changes needed for existing wind.
Jan Strack commented that the new wind technology does not comport with what E3 had provided for capital
costs. Unless this is fixed, we will have a mismatch when comparing with other technologies.
Nick Schlag of E3 added clarification that the cost estimate for new technology is a mid-cost point estimate
that falls in the middle of the swath.
BC Hydro representative asked if the wind power curve represents all new technologies. How practical is it
to go back and find multipliers for all technologies?
Dan added that the wind speed in the 2005 dataset are not normalized for density. This will also compound
the problem. Earlier, NREL advised against this approach.
2
Pat reaffirmed that the proposed Duke technique is much simpler than changing locations for different
profiles.
NREL The Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit
Bri-Mathias Hodge explained that the Western Wind old dataset (years: 2004, 2005 and 2006) were
developed five to six years ago. The goal is now to provide data focused on power output; we now have
higher resolution wind power data.
 Want to reflect realistic wind output
 Capacity factors are represented
 Want time-synchronous with load profiles
 Used recent 4 years to evaluate inter-annual variability
See Bri’s enclosed presentation. The “new” data is now available for years 2007 through 2013
Acrobat Document
The weather research and forecasting model is setup for:
 6 km nest for forecast and 2 km for re-analysis
 Model output: 1 h for forecasts, 5 min for re-analysis
Note that the “new” Power Conversion Curve represents a “composite” Power Curve summary that plots
normalized output plotted against wind speed (m/s) for all technologies.
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The Power Conversion – Turbines table – slide 11 shows a summary to technology represented by
class and their respective rated output.
After much discussion, it is noted that the “new” Power Conversion – Composite Curves – slide 12 is useful to
use when implementing the Duke Energy multiplier.
Jan reminded – we need to make sure we do not bias by using non-representative capital costs.
Henry Tilghman commented, “I’m not sure you need to update “Capacity Costs” if you modify the “Power
Curves”.
The WECC prospective has to do with not having had a chance to use the capital costs developed by E3,
however the “proposal” calls for changes.
Ron Lehr explained that we’re using capital cost averages across regions as well as into the future; this
already provides for a sliding scale, especially 10 years forward. Given that we will not have time to review
prices, we can incorporate the new NREL Power Curves, he supports moving forward with the Duke Energy
proposal. Caveat, add to the proposal “capital costs can vary”.
3
Next Steps
Jamie summarized that we have consensus to move forward with the “Proposal”, caveated to add “Capital
Costs can vary”. Additionally, Bri has indicated the fixes as suggested in the proposal are simple and would
take little effort to apply. Consistently, for next steps:
1.
Bob Burner - Duke Energy will work with Bri-Methias Hodge – NREL to validate results; Bri will
determine if go, no-go?
2.
DWG will take final recommendation to TAS for final approval.
3.
Staff will implement in the 2014 study program.
Action Items :
1. Jamie to initiate resurrecting the DSM\EE survey, working with the DSM Task Force.
2.
Name
Austin, Jamie
Amjadi, Amir
Alvarado, Al
Anderson, Grace
Brathwaite, Leon
Bailey, Michael
Barbose, Galen
Bayless, Rich
Brownlee, Ben
Beckstead, Dan
Belval, Ron
Brathwaite, Leon
Brinkman, Gregory
Brooks, Donald
Brown, Elise
Brush, Ray
Burner, Bob
Carr, Tom
Carvallo, Juan Pablo
Charles, Gillian
Chhajed, Pushkar
Chisholm, Tom
Colburn, Mitch
Coe, Scott
Cole, Brian
Corum, Ken
Davis, Enoch
Deaver, Paul
Denker, Brendan
In attendance at the 111114 Meeting:
Company
Name
PAC
x
Landrum, Jon
Larsen, Peter
Le, David
CEC
Lee, Peter
CEC
Lehr, Ron
CEC
Liotiris, Caitln
WECC
Linvill, Carl
LBNL
Mao, Megan
NTTG
WECC
x
WECC
TEP
CEC
NREL
CPUC
SPSG
Western
Duke Energy
WIEB
IID
x
x
x
NPCC
LCG
Consulting
BPA
IPC
NWPCC
WECC
CEC
SRP
x
Marrs, Richard
McLean, Christopher
McCann, Richard
McIntosh, Henry
Mejia, Roni
Misca, Catalin
Miller, Tom
Moore, Jack
Moussa, Effat
Moyer, Keegan
Newman, Raymond
Nail, George
Nothstein, Greg
O’Neill, Ean
Pacheco, Ezquiel
Pacini, Heidi
Papic, Milorad
Pascoe, Bill
Piper, David
Prochnik, Julia
Pryor, Mark
Company
LBNL
CAISO
BPA
x
RAP
SCE
CEC
SDG&E
SCE
CAISO
PG&E
E3
SDG&E
WECC
x
x
PN&M
CEC
IID
ICF
IPC
x
SCE
NRDC
CEC
4
Depenbrock, Fred
Dekiep, Brian
Donnohoo, Pearl
Didsayabutra, Paul
Eaton, Pam
Evans, Mike
Ezequiel
Fisher, Emily
Freeman, Bryce
Green, Irina
Griffin, Karen
Nevada Hydro
NPCC
NREL
COGRID
SPSG
Shell Energy
IID
NREL
Puglia, Peter
x
CAISO
CEC
Grau, Judy
Gutierrez, Noe
Hamilton, Roger
Haenichen, Jack
Hands, Betsey
Harris, Gerald
Harris, Kevin
Harwood, Patrick
Hein, Jeff
Heutte, Fred
Hodge, Bri-Mathias
Holland, Stan
Hosie, Bill
Huang, Wenxiong
Jenka, Raub
Jensen, Richard
Johnson, Anders
Johnson, Colby
Jourabchi, Massoud
Kates, David
Kelly, Nancy
Kennedy, Robert
Ketabi, Noushin
Kim, Songtae
Klapka, Paul
Klein, Joel
Knudsen, Steve
Kujala, Ben
Kravchuk, Luba
IID
x
MT
Reos
COGRID
WAPA
Xcel
NWEC
NREL
WECC
Duke Energy
PLEX
SRP
CEC
BPA
WECC
NWPCC
Nevada Hydro
CEC
Energy
Division
PAC
SCE
CEC
BPA
NWPCC
x
x
x
x
Quick, Kirha
Raub, Jenika
Rucker, Magdalena
Sapp, Shawn
Satchwell, Andy
Schlag, Nick
Schanahan, Patrick
Schellberg, Ron
Schilmoeller, Michael
CEC
WECC
SRP
x
Ventyx
LBNL
E3
x
x
IPC
NWPCC
Schmidt, Jason
Xcel Energy
Simmons, Steve
NWPCC
Simons, Dick
Simonson, Gary
Singh, Harliv
Spears, Michael
Starck, Jan
Tanghetti, Angela
Trinh, Lan
Tilghman, Henry
Wang, Xiaobo
Wallace, Steve
Wheeler, Dan
Williams, Stan
White, Keith
White, Stephen
Weiss, Steve
Woertz, Byron
Wong, Lana
Xiong, Lei
WECC
Xcel Energy
SDG&E
CEC
ABB
x
x
x
CAISO
CPS
Gaelectric
BPA
CPUC
BPA
BPA
WECC
CEC
Alberta Electric
System Operator
(AESO)
x
Young, Patrick
Zewe, Janice
Zhang, Yi
Zhu, Jin
Zhang, Hui
Zichella, Carl
CAISO
ABB
x
5
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