4.6
Transport services and infrastructure
Key messages

Data on past climate-related impacts on transport is restricted to individual extreme events, and
attribution to climate change is generally not possible.

Information on the future risks of climate change for transport in Europe has improved recently
due to several EU research projects focusing on climate change, extreme weather events and
inland water transport.

Climate change is projected to have both beneficial and adverse impacts on transport, depending
on the region and the transport mode.

Available projections suggest that rail transport will face the highest percentage increase in costs
from extreme weather events. The British Islands, central Europe/France, eastern Europe and
Scandinavia are projected to be most adversely impacted.
4.6.1
Overview
Land-based transport infrastructure and operation are sensitive to changes in climate, including snow
and rainfall patterns, coastal and inland flooding, wind storms and heat waves. In the far north, semipermanent frost structures may become unusable for larger portions of the year. Water-based transport
is particularly sensitive to river droughts and changes in ice cover of oceans and inland waters. Some
impacts of climate change may be positive, such as a decrease in the ice cover of oceans and rivers,
but most of them will be negative (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009). In the Arctic, climate change is
opening up new transport lanes and enables the exploitation of both natural and mineral resources (see
Subsection 2.3.6 on Arctic sea ice). While this can be of benefit for the regional and global economy,
it will also have repercussions on the Arctic’s fragile environment if not managed with the utmost
care (EC, 2012).
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climate change on transport infrastructure.
Table Error! No text of specified style in document..1
Overview of climate change
effects and impacts on transport infrastructure
Factor
Effect
1. Temperature
Change of distribution patterns, higher average and maximum
temperature
1.1 High temperatures and heat
waves
Overheating
Infrastructure equipment, lifetime reduction,
reliability of the electronic and the electric
components (i.e. rail rolling stock equipment);
slope instabilities due to the thawing of
permafrost in alpine regions
1.2 Sudden temp changes
Tension,
overheating
Rail track buckling, slope fires, signalling
problems
1.4 Freezing and thawing cycles
Soil erosion
Damage to embankments, earthwork
2. Precipitation
Change of distribution patterns, more extreme events
2.1 Intense rainfall
Soil erosion, landslides,
flooding
1.3 Intense sunlight
Impact on Infrastructure/Services
Damage to embankments, earthwork
Road traffic safety: risk of collisions as a result
of bad weather conditions
Risk of weather-related delays in all modes of
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services
2.2 Extended rain periods
Slower drainage, soil
erosion
2.3 Flooding: coastal, surface water,
fluvial
Landslides
Desiccation
2.4 Drought
Rail infrastructure assets, operation
Drainage systems, tunnels, increased scour of
bridges
Risk of weather-related delays in all modes of
services
Earthworks desiccation
Road traffic safety: risk of collisions as a result
of dust on road and consequent decrease of
wheel grid
Increased abrasion of mechanical
components
Potential change of water levels on navigable
rivers (very low levels during summer and high
levels in rain periods)
2.5 Snow and ice
Heavy snowfall,
avalanches
Restrictions/disruption of train operations
Road traffic safety: risk of collisions as a result
of bad weather conditions
Risk of weather-related delays in all modes of
services
3. Wind
Change of distribution patterns, more extreme events
3.1 Storm/gale (inland)
Higher wind forces
Damage to rail installations, catenary
All modes potential traffic disruptions and
safety concern
Uprooting of trees
Restrictions/disruption of train operation
Road traffic safety
3.2 Coastal storms & sea-level rise
Coastal flooding
Embankments, earthwork, operation
4. Lightning strikes and
thunderstorms
Overvoltage
Catenary, traffic control and
communications systems
5. Vegetation
Faster plant growth, new Vegetation management
plants
Source: Adapted from (Nolte et al., 2011) to incorporate main impacts on all modes of transport.
Data on past climate-related impacts on transport are restricted to individual extreme events, and
attribution to climate change is generally not possible. Some countries in Europe have assessed
potential climate impacts on their transport infrastructure and/or adaptation options (e.g. the UK
(UKCIP, 2011; Thornes et al., 2012), Spain (Crespo Garcia, 2011), Germany (Deutsche
Bundesregierung, 2008) and Switzerland (BAFU, 2012). The level of detail in the analysis and the
consideration of the potential risks and impacts on the different modes and on the transport sector as a
whole differ considerably. The UK CCRA for the transport sector highlights extreme weather events
as the main challenge for the maintenance and operation of existing infrastructure.
The literature on potential economic impacts of climate change on transport infrastructure is still
scarce but rapidly evolving. Most sector-specific studies on potential climate impacts and adaptation
options focus on river transport (see Subsection 4.6.2) and on rail infrastructure (Nolte et al., 2011).
Climate impacts on road transport can be both beneficial and adverse. Reduced snow and ice cover
would improve traffic conditions, but increasing severity of storms would worsen them (see also
Subsection 4.6.3). The remainder of this section presents results from three research projects
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addressing climate change impacts on transport that were funded under the Seventh Framework
Programme for Research (FP7) of the European Commission.
4.6.2
Inland water transport
The FP7 project ECCONET (1) assesses the impact of climate change on inland waterway transport
(IWT) as well as possible adaptation measures. The project uses the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor as
a case study with special emphasis on low water situations, which are most problematic for IWT.
Over a period of 20 years, the average annual welfare loss due to low water levels on the Rhine was
calculated at EUR 28 million; the 2003 extreme low-water year was associated with a welfare loss of
EUR 91 million (Jonkeren et al., 2007). Other climate-related changes, such as high water levels,
changed ice formation or a change in visibility due to fog, are assessed only briefly in ECCONET.
Results based on projections from different climate models show no significant effects on low flow
conditions for the Rhine canal and the Rhine–Main–Danube canal until 2050. The upper Danube
would experience a moderate increase in low flow conditions. The trend towards drier summers and
wetter winters will gain in importance towards the end of the 21st century. Disposition for ice
formation on both the Rhine and Danube will most likely decrease over the whole 21st century
(Nilson et al., 2012).
Simulations with the NODUS transport model (Jonkeren et al., 2011) suggest that projected climate
change until 2050 is unlikely to impact the Rhine hydrology strong enough to induce any significant
shift in modal shares. The study estimates that a ‘dry’ year leads to approximately a 6–7 % increase in
total transport cost compared to a ‘wet’ year, but these variations are already present under the current
climate conditions and will not be influenced heavily by climate change until the 2050s. Low water
levels could also trigger further impacts due to interruptions of coal supply to power stations
(Rothstein and Halbig, 2010).
4.6.3
Impacts of changes in weather extremes
Two FP7 projects assessed the impacts of climate change and extreme weather conditions on transport
systems: WEATHER (2) and EWENT (3). The WEATHER project aimed at identifying risks,
economic impacts, and suitable crises management and transport adaptation strategies for all modes of
transport across Europe. The EWENT project looked more deeply into long-term weather scenarios
and the sensitivities of transport modes by following a standard risk assessment process. Note that the
definition of extremes strongly varies between approaches. In both projects it had to be acknowledged
that there is a lag of reliable statistical data for a sound vulnerability assessment of transport modes in
the European region.
The WEATHER project considered the following extreme events: hot and cold spells, floods,
landslides, wild fires and storms. Data were gathered through studies of various weather phenomena
on transport in North America, Australia, Europe and New Zealand, a review of over 1 000 damage
reports for 6 countries, and an assessment of available transport operator data for some European
transport networks. The combined results have been extrapolated to eight European climate zones
using meteorological indicators as well as infrastructure coverage and transport performance
indicators. The standard cost values were considered specifically for public transport services, time
1
See http://www.ecconet.eu online.
See http://www.weather-project.eu online.
3
See http://ewent.vtt.fi online.
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losses and safety impacts for transport users. In addition, the assessment of indirect costs imposed by
transport disruptions on other economic sectors was estimated.
For the assessment period 1998 to 2010, the total costs borne by the transport sector (damages, repair
and maintenance costs of infrastructures, vehicle damages, increased system operation costs, etc.)
across all weather phenomena were estimated at EUR 2.5 billion per year. The indirect costs of
transport disruptions on other sectors were estimated at EUR 1 billion per year. Rail is the most
affected transport mode in relation to passenger and tonne kilometres, with hot spots in eastern
Europe and Scandinavia largely caused by hydrological phenomena and their consequences. The
effects on roads are more evenly distributed across Europe with somewhat higher costs in mountain
areas and Scandinavia. The high vulnerability of road and rail infrastructure in mountain areas can be
explained by the usually expensive infrastructures, while the high vulnerability of rail is due to the
more complex reaction mechanisms in emergency cases. Projections for the period 2040–2050 (based
on predictions of extremes taken from the EWENT project) suggest that rail will face the highest cost
increase, with particular emphasis on the British Islands, central Europe and Scandinavia, mostly due
to increases in hydrological extremes.
The EWENT project assessed average annual costs due to weather extremes for the current (1998–
2010) and a future (2041–2070) time period. Costs comprise accident costs, time costs, infrastructure
damage and maintenance, and effects on freight and logistics. EWENT estimates costs from extreme
weather events in the baseline period of more than EUR 15 billion, which is dominated by the costs of
road accidents. This estimate is more than four times above the estimates of direct and indirect costs
from the WEATHER project. The main reasons for this difference are a wider definition of extreme
events in EWENT, inclusion of externalities (accidents), and the explicit consideration of nonmotorised travel and logistics among other aspects, which were omitted by the WEATHER project.
According to results from EWENT, different regions in Europe will respond to future changes in
different ways. In Northern Europe, cold spells will become less frequent but the amount of snow
(especially for the thresholds of deeper snow coverage) will increase. Continental climate in Eastern
Europe will continue to warm up and this results in less cold spells and snow. Similar developments
will be observed in Central Europe and the Alpine region. In the maritime region the main threat is
the potential increase in strong winds. This will also be observed in the Mediterranean region, where
also the heat waves are becoming more prolonged by 2050 (Leviäkangas et al., 2011; Vajda et al.,
2011). Road transport is projected to experience beneficial and adverse impacts, with somewhat
complex regional patterns. Rail transport experiences mostly negative impacts, with the exception of
the Iberian Peninsula; the most severe impacts are projected for the British Isles and France. Aviation
is projected to experience negative impacts throughout Europe. Negative impacts across all transport
modes are projected for Scandinavia, the British Isles, France, and Eastern Europe. These projections
are largely consistent with those of the WEATHER project discussed above.
EWENT also assessed changes in the overall costs of extreme events on the transport sector. These
costs are projected to decrease substantially in the future but this decrease is driven primarily by
reduced costs of road accidents due to improved vehicle safety technologies. Follow-on costs on
freight and logistics are expected to increase substantially but this increase is primarily driven by the
projected increase in freight volumes. In summary, the costs of weather extremes on the transport
sector are expected to be influenced more strongly by changes in technology and transport demand
than by changes in weather extremes.
The overall risks of extreme weather were assessed in EWENT for EU-27 Member States. A risk
indicator based on probabilistic weather hazards and resilience and vulnerability of each Member
State revealed that countries with poor quality infrastructures, dense traffic volumes and population,
and low income levels are usually most at risk and will face the severest consequences (Molarius et
al., 2012).
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