Reliability
The University of Toledo
MIME
(MIME, 5690) (31707)
Instructor:
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Office Hours:
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Prof. Efstratios Nikolaidis
enikolai@eng.utoledo.edu
MT 9:30 - noon
4006D NI
419-530-8216
Spring 2015
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PL 3200
TR 3:30-4:45 PM
(Insert Building/Office #, if applicable)
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COURSE/CATALOG DESCRIPTION
Reliability of components and multicomponent systems. Static and dynamic reliability models for both
independent and dependent failures. Effects of hot and cold redundancy. Reliability testing consideration
and renewal theory.
STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the conclusion of this course, you should be able to:
Explain the basic concepts of reliability and reliability-based engineering design.
Understand the non- deterministic way of thinking, and learn to appreciate the facts that real life design
problem involves uncertainties and any system can fail.
Learn how to assess the reliability of a component or a system.
Learn how to design a system to meet given reliability requirements.
TEACHING STRATEGIES
Class Lectures:
Each class will start with a 5-10 minute review of the previous class. Then we cover new
material and close with an overview. I typically ask a lot of questions during class to make sure
you understand the material and wait until somebody answers. I encourage you to try to
answer the questions.
Posted Lectures:
Recorded lectures have been uploaded on YouTube and links are provided on the course web page:
http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/~enikolai/5690.htm Watch all posted lectures. Each recorded lecture
starts with a 5-10 minute review. Then we cover new material and close with an overview of what we
covered.
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PREREQUISITES AND COREQUISITES
Graduate standing
Related courses: MIME 2650 (Manufacturing Processes), MIME 4010 (Engineering Statistics II)
REQUIRED TEXTS AND ANCILLARY MATERIALS
Kapur, K. C., and Lamberson, L. R., Reliability in Engineering Design, John Wiley and Sons, 1977 (required).
E. Nikolaidis, D. M. Ghiocel, S. Singhal, Engineering Design Reliability Handbook, CRC Press, Boca Raton,
FL, 2004 (recommended).
Nikolaidis, Efstratios, Zissimos P. Mourelatos, and Vijitashwa Pandey. Design decisions under uncertainty
with limited information. Vol. 7. CRC Press Llc, 2011.
TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS
Access to Internet: http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/~enikolai/5690.htm
Access to MS Excel
UNIVERSITY POLICIES
The University is an equal opportunity educational institution. Please read The University’s Policy
Statement on Nondiscrimination on the Basis of Disability Americans with Disability Act Compliance.)
Academic Accommodations
The University of Toledo is committed to providing equal access to education for all students. If you have a
documented disability or you believe you have a disability and would like information regarding academic
accommodations/adjustments in this course please contact the Student Disability Services Office.)
ACADEMIC POLICIES
Exams, homework and grading: There will be 10 homework assignments, one project and five quizzes.
You are encouraged to collaborate in the homework and the project, but not on quizzes. Copying another
student’s homework or project is unacceptable. I will email you when each assignment/quiz has been
posted.
Missed homework or exams: If you are unable to submit a homework or take the final exam because of a
genuine emergency (such as illness, jury duty and funeral) then you should contact me by E-mail or in
person and provide written documentation as soon as possible. Submit your assignment as soon as
possible. In case you have to miss the final exam I will decide if I will give you a make-up exam or adjust
the weight of the final exam or other homework assignments. If you fail to provide proper written
COURSE EXPECTATIONS
Students are expected to attend classes, watch lectures and submit assignments on time. No late
assignments are eccepted.
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GRADING
Your grade will be based on the following the homework assignments, the project and the
quizzes, and will be calculated as follows:
Quizzes (50%), Homework (25%), Project (25%)
The grade will be determined based on the following scale:
Overall score
Letter grade
90-100 A or A80-89.99
B or B+ or B-
70-79.99
C or C+ or C-
60-69.99
D or D+ or D-
COMMUNICATION GUIDELINES
Email the instructor your questions
COURSE TOPICS AND SCHEDULE
Material and assignments:
1. Introduction (Hwk 1)
Design under uncertainty
Why use probabilistic methods
Success stories
Reliability-based design
2. Reliability Measures and Hazard Models (Hwk 2-4)
Reliability, failure rate and hazard functions
Reliability and hazard functions for common probability distribution functions
Hazard models
Estimating reliability measures from data
Fatigue reliability
3. System Reliability (Hwk 5)
Series systems
Parallel systems
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Parallel and series systems combinations
Complex systems, redundant systems with progressive failure scenarios
4. Dynamic Reliability Models
Series, parallel, standby systems
System effectiveness measures: operational readiness, availability, maintainability
5. Combination of Random Variables, Probability Calculus (Hwk 6, 7)
Finding the probability distribution of a function of random variables
Approximations of the mean and standard deviation, error analysis
Statistical tolerancing
6. Reliability Computations (Hwk 8-10)
General expression for reliability, level I, level II and level III methods for computation of reliability
Reliability computation for common probability distributions
7. Probabilistic Engineering Design (Project)
Methodology
Stress and strength probability distributions
Safety factors and reliability
Reliability Design Examples
8. Numerical Methods for Reliability Computations
First order methods; Taylor expansion about the mean values, Taylor expansion about most
probable failure point, Hasofer-Lind safety index
Rosemblatt transformation, normal tail approximation.
Monte-Carlo simulation
Course web page: http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/~enikolai/5690.htm. The web page contains
assignments, old exams, summaries of the chapters and administrative information.
The professor will post the solutions of a homework or design project on the course web page
after the submission deadline. Assignments submitted after the solutions have been posted will
receive a zero grade.
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In order to pass the class, students must submit all assignments and quizzes before the deadline
posted.
Computer usage: Some homework problems can be solved efficiently using computer. You can
use any software program you like including FORTRAN, MATLAB, Excel, or MathCad.
Course web page: http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/~enikolai/5690.htm. The web page contains
assignments, old exams, summaries of the chapters and administrative information.
References:
Probability Theory
Nikolaidis, E., Mourelatos, Z. P. and Pandey, V., Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited
Information, CRC Press, 2011, Chapter 3.
Papoulis, A., Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes, Mc Graw Hill, 1965.
Element Reliability
Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S. and Lind, N. C., Methods of Structural Safety, Prentice Hall, Englewwod
Cliffs, NJ, 1986.
Melchers, R. E., 1987, Structural Reliability, Analysis and Prediction, Ellis Horwood Limited, West
Sussex, England.
Ditlevsen, O., and Madsen, H. O., 1996, Structural Reliability Methods, John Wiley and Sons.
Ang, A. and Tang, W, 1975, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Vol. I Basic
Principles, J. Wiley and Sons, New York.
Ang, A. and Tang, W, 1984, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Vol. II Decision, Risk
and Reliability, J. Wiley and Sons, New York.
System Reliability
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Thoft-Christensen, P., and Murotsu, Y., 1986, Application of Structural Systems Reliability Theory,
Spinger-Verlag, New York.
Reliability-based Design
"Reliability Based Optimization: A Safety Index Approach," E. Nikolaidis and R. Burdisso,
Computers and Structures, Vol. 28, No. 6, June 1988, pp. 731-788.
"Probabilistic Torsional Vibration Analysis of a Marine Diesel Engine Shafting System: The Level
Crossing Problem," E. Nikolaidis, A. N. Perakis and M. G. Parsons, Journal of Applied Mechanics,
Vol. 56, No. 4, December 1989, pp. 953-959.
"System Reliability Optimization of Aircraft Wings," J. S. Yang, E. Nikolaidis, and R. T. Haftka,
Computers and Structures, Vol. 36, 1990, No. 6, pp. 1057-1066.
"Reliability-Based Optimization: An Analytical-Experimental Study," E. Nikolaidis and W. J.
Stroud, AIAA Journal, Vol. 34, No. 10, October 1996, pp. 2154-2161.
Nikolaidis, E., Mourelatos, Z. P. and Pandey, V., Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited
Information, CRC Press, 2011, Chapter 1.
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