Projections Expert Panel Meeting
Tuesday 12th May, Milan, Italy
Chairs: Nadine Allemand, Melanie Hobson
11:30
PEP introductions and aims of the session
Chairs
11:40
GAINS emission projections for the EU Clean Air Policy
Package
Zig Klimont
12:00
Sweden’s national projections system
Tomas Gustafsson
12:20
The UK’s emission projections
Yvonne Pang
12:40
AOB including discussion on the projections chapter in the
guidebook and the Reporting Guidelines
All
13:00
Meeting ends
PEP introductions and aims of the session
The Chairs opened the 2015 meeting for the Projections Expert Panel.
GAINS emission projections for the EU Clean Air Policy Package.
The main points arising were:
- Bilateral consultations have been held with 28 Countries to review the emission projections
that are utilised in the GAINS. This was to eliminate potential misunderstandings, correct
mistakes in input data and identify differences in perspectives on future development.
Graphs were provided to show the changes in 2005 emissions between the 2012 and 2014
inventory versions. The largest changes were seen for PM2.5 and NMVOCs. NMVOCs are
particularly variable due to the large number of sources with high uncertainties. This
therefore makes it challenging in the GAINS model as the reference point against countries’
inventories doesn’t stay the same for long.
- However at the EU 28 level the model is fairly robust. For example, for NOx there is only a
0.4% difference.
- There are often discrepancies between the energy statistics used in national inventories and
what has been submitted to Eurostat.
- Projections impacts split into 3 groups – changes in activity levels (many Member States
have different perspectives on future activity), existing emission control legislation (for
example, different expectations of the Eco Design Directive), additional measures needed in
order to meet the targets.
- The updated proposals for the national emission ceilings in 2030 were presented. The
emission reduction requirements proposed are technically feasible for the PRIMES 2013
Reference Scenario (with one exception).
-
Updated emission ceilings have been produced for WPE and the costs have declined by a
third.
Sweden’s national projections system.
The main points arising were:
- At present the national system for projections as in many other countries mainly supports
the needs for GHG emission projections and not air quality pollutant projections. There is a
need for one coordinated national system.
- In 2015 there was national agreement to establish and secure data flows between national
agencies in accordance with EU MMR (GHG only)
- The air pollutant emission projections are mainly based on the same activity drivers and
assumptions as the GHG emission projections. The road traffic emission projections are
produced by the Swedish Transport Administration.
- The aim of the Swedish clean Air and Climate Research program is to develop a conceptual
emission projection and scenario model for both GHG and air pollutants.
The key areas for improvement are coordinating the work flow and assumptions; make the
data more accessible and usable including providing detailed documentation of data,
assumptions and limitations; better integration with the GAINS model; improved QA/QC.
The UK’s emission projections.
The main points arising were:
- The presentation covered the background to the UK’s emission projection compilation and a
sector example using road transport.
- Projections are undertaken as far as 2030, apart from for road transport for which data is
projected to 2035.
- The emission projections have a wide application including UK integrated assessment
modelling and regional scale air quality modelling.
- For the road transport emission projections, vehicle technology up to and including Euro
6/VI is included in the model. Activity data is obtained from the UK’s department for
transport national transport model (NTM). It is assumed that traffic growth in Northern
Ireland is the same as in Great Britain.
AOB including discussion on the projections chapter in the Guidebook and the Reporting
Guidelines
- This year for the first time, the session was held separately to the other expert panel
meetings and was part of the main plenary session. This worked well as the majority of the
TFEIP meeting attendees joined the session.
- The issue surrounding whether updates / modifications are needed to the Projections
chapter in the EMEP / EEA Guidebook was raised. It was concluded that no changes were
required at the present time.
- References to the Projections section(s) in the Reporting Guidelines were discussed to
ensure that it was clear. It was felt that this was satisfactory.
The Chairs closed the 2015 meeting for the Projections Expert Panel.