Unit 5: Probability
Chance and Uncertainty
Robbyn Amy
Table of Contents
Page Number
Focusing Questions………………………………………………………………………………..…2
Unit Organizer………………………………………………………………………………………....2
Key Concepts………………………………………………………………………………………...…2
Unit Summary………………………………………………………………………………………….3
Learning Outcomes…………………………………………………………………………………..3
Unit Assessment Plan……………………………………………………………………………….4
Unit Schedule at a Glace……………………………………………………………………………6
Detailed Unit Schedule……………………………………………………………………………..7
Unit Resources…………………………………………………………………………………………11
1
Focusing Questions:
How can probabilities be expressed in different ways?
How can an independent event be identified?
How can outcomes be organized into tree diagrams or tables?
How can the sample space of a probability problem involving two independent
events be identified?
What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability?
Unit Organizer:
Topic 1: Probability
1.1 Finding the Probability of an Event in Different Ways
1.2 Giving Answers as Probabilities from 0%-100%
Topic 2: Organize Outcomes
2.1 Identifying Independent Events
2.2 Outcomes of Independent Events
2.3 Organizing Outcomes Using Tables or Tree Diagrams
Topic 3: Probabilities of Simple Independent Events
3.1 Solving Probability Problems Involving Two Independent Events
Topic 4: Applications of Independent Events
4.1 Solving Probability Problems Using Tree Diagrams or Graphic Organizers
Topic 5: Conduct Probability Experiments
5.1 Conducting Probability Experiments
5.2 Comparing Experimental with Theoretical Probability
Key Concepts:
 Probability
 Outcome
 Favorable Outcome
 Independent Event
 Sample Space
 Tree Diagram
 Random
 Experimental Probability
 Theoretical Probability
2
Unit Summary: In this unit, students will work with probability. Students will not
only be able to calculate probability but also represent it in the form of a fraction,
ratio, decimal and percent. Students will organize probability outcomes into tables
and tree diagrams. They will use these organizational methods to them solve
probability problems. Students will also compare experimental and theoretical
probability and predict the probability of events.
Learning Outcomes (Alberta Program of Studies):
Statistics and Probability General Learning Outcomes
GLO 2: Use experimental or theoretical probabilities to represent and solve
problems involving uncertainty.
Statistics and Probability Specific Learning Outcomes:
SLO 4: Express probabilities as ratios, fractions and percents.
[C, CN, R, T, V]
SLO 5: Identify the sample space (where the combined sample space has 36 or
fewer elements) for a probability experiment involving two independent events.
[C, ME, PS]
SLO 6: Conduct a probability experiment to compare the theoretical probability
(determined using a tree diagram, table or other graphic organizer) and
experimental probability of two independent events.
[C, PS, R, T]
Legend:
[C] Communication
[CN] Connections
[ME] Mental Mathematics and Estimation
[PS] Problem Solving
[R] Reasoning
[T] Technology
[V] Visualization
3
Unit Summative Assessment Plan:
Outcomes
SLO 4
SLO 5
Summative Assessments
Problem Set #1: This
assessment piece will have
students working
individually or in small
groups to demonstrate
their knowledge of
representing probabilities
in several different ways,
explaining how to identify
an independent event and
how to determine and
organize the outcomes of
two independent events.
Weighting
15%
SLO 4
SLO 5
Problem Set #2: This
assessment piece will have
students working
individually or in small
groups to demonstrate
their knowledge of solving
probability problems
involving two independent
events. They will also solve
probability problems using
tree diagrams and other
graphic organizers.
15%
Lesson #6
SLO 4
SLO 5
Quiz: This assessment
piece will have students
individually demonstrate
their knowledge of
representing probabilities
in several different ways,
explaining how to identify
an independent event and
how to determine and
organize the outcomes of
two independent events.
This assessment piece will
have students individually
demonstrate their
20%
Lesson #8
4
Due Date
Lesson #3
SLO 6
SLO4
SLO5
SLO 6
knowledge of solving
probability problems
involving two independent
events. They will also solve
probability problems using
tree diagrams and other
graphic organizers.
Project: This assessment
piece will have students
working in small groups to
demonstrate their
knowledge of SLO 6.
Students will conduct a
probability experiment to
compare the theoretical
probability (determined
using a tree diagram, table
or other graphic organizer)
and experimental
probability of two
independent events.
Unit Test: This assessment
piece will have students
individually demonstrate
their knowledge of all SLOs
of the Probability: Chance
and Uncertainty Unit. This
test will be composed of
multiple choice and written
response style questions.
5
25%
Lesson #9
25%
Lesson #12
Unit Schedule at a Glace
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Lesson 1: Introduction
Day
Lesson 2: Topics 1 and
2 Direct Instruction and
Practice Problems
Lesson 3: Topics 1 and
2 Problem Set
Lesson 4: Topic 3
Direct Instruction and
Practice Problems
Lesson 6: Topic 3 and 4
Problem Set
Lesson 7: Topics 1-4
Review
Lesson 8: Topics 1-4
Lesson 9: Topic 5
Quiz and Topic 5 Project Project
Lesson 11: Review
Lesson 12: Unit Test
Lesson 5: Topic 4
Direct Instruction and
Practice Problems
Lesson 10: Review
Detailed Unit Schedule:
Lesson
and Time
SLO
Content
Teaching Strategies/ Activities
7
Assessments
Materials
#1
45 min
Introduction
Lesson
-Getting to Know Miss. Amy
-Classroom Expectations
-Folders
-“Who am I?” Booklets
-Clock Buddies
-Interest Surveys
-Multiple
Intelligence
Testing
-Goal Setting
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work
-Intro to Unit with The Probability
Song You-Tube Video
-Students will set up a “Terms” page
to be used for the unit
-Direct instruction will be used to
review probability, outcomes,
favorable outcomes, independent
events, sample space and tree
diagrams.
-Students will complete practice
problems in small groups based on
ability
-Two questions will be presented as
an exit slip. Students will complete
the question they feel confident
answering.
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work completed using Think-PairShare
-Bell Work using
Think-Pair-Share
-Observation
#2
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topics 1 and
2
#3
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topics 1 and
2
8
-Prezi “Getting to
Know Miss. Amy”
-Sticky Notes
-Folders
-Name Stickers
-Name Tags
-“Who am I?”
Booklets
-Clock Buddies
-Bell Work
-You-Tube Video
-Observation
-SMARTBoard
-Thumbs
Presentation
-Practice Problems -MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slip
-Exit Slips
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-Problem Set #1
#4
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topic 3
#5
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topic 4
-Previous practice problems will be
reviewed
-Students will be working
individually or in small groups to
complete Problem Set #1. This will
be handed in as a summative
assessment
-Students will complete an exit slip
indicating their confidence level of
the materials learned so far
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work
-Direct instruction will be used to
review random events and how to
find the probability of a specific
outcome
-Students will complete practice
problems in small groups based on
ability
-Two questions will be presented as
an exit slip. Students will complete
the question they feel confident
answering
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work
-Previous practice problems will be
reviewed
-Direct instruction will be used to
explore how tables and tree
diagrams can be used to organize
9
-Thumbs
-Problem Set #1
-Exit Slip
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
-Bell Work
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Practice Problems
-Exit Slip
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
-Bell Work
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Practice Problems
-Exit Slip
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
#6
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topics 3 and
4
#7
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4 and 5
Topics 1-4
outcomes of complex independent
events
-Students will complete practice
problems in small groups based on
ability
-Two questions will be presented as
an exit slip. Students will complete
the question they feel confident
answering
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work completed using Think-PairShare
-Previous practice problems will be
reviewed
-Students will be working
individually or in small groups to
complete Problem Set #2. This will
be handed in as a summative
assessment
-Students will complete an exit slip
indicating their confidence level of
the materials learned so far
-Pre-Assessment Question for Bell
Work
-Direct instruction will be used to
answer any questions that students
still have about topics 1-4
-Students will work in groups of
varying abilities to answer practice
problems in a round table format
10
-Bell Work using
Think-Pair-Share
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Problem Set #2
-Exit Slip
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-Problem Set #2
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
-Bell Work
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Practice Problems
-Exit Slip
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
#8
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4, 5 and 6
Topics 1-5
#9
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
6
Topic 5
#10 and
Statistics and
Topics 1-5
-Two questions will be presented as
an exit slip. Students will complete
the question they feel confident
answering
-Students will individually complete
a quiz to demonstrate there
understandings of Topics 1-4. This
will be handed in as a summative
assessment.
-Direct instruction will be used to
explore experimental and
theoretical probability and
probability experiments
-Students will complete practice
problems in small groups based on
ability
-Two questions will be presented as
an exit slip. Students will complete
the question they feel confident
answering
-Students will conduct a probability
experiment to compare the
theoretical probability (determined
using a tree diagram, table or other
graphic organizer) and
experimental probability of two
independent events. This will be
handed in as a summative
assessment
-Students will complete a unit
11
-Quiz
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Practice Problems
-Exit Slip
-Quiz
-SMARTBoard
Presentation
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Exit Slips
-Project
-Observation
-Thumbs
-Project
Instructions
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Observation
-SMARTBoard
#11
45 min x2
Probability SLO
4, 5 and 6
#12
45 min
Statistics and
Probability SLO
4, 5 and 6
Unit Test:
Topics 1-5
review on Topics 1-5
-Thumbs
-Review will be gone over and any
-Unit Review
questions will be answered to
prepare for the unit test
Individually, students will write a
-Unit Test
unit test to demonstrate their
knowledge of all SLOs of the
Probability: Chance and Uncertainty
Unit. This test will be composed of
multiple choice and written
response style questions.
Presentation
-Unit Review
-MathLinks 7 Text
-Unit Test
**Anchor Activity Booklet will be used when students finish the lesson material
Unit Resources:
McAskill, B., Watt, W., Ablett, S., Backe, R., Johnson, B., & Webb, M. (2007). MathLinks 7. Toronto, Canada : McGraw-Hill Ryerson
Ltd.
The Probability Song . (2011, May 31). In You-Tube. Retrieved January 2, 2014, from
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xm1SDlnvh4
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