SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 1
Simulation Specifications
Table SM1.1. Species data parameters.
Sexual
Shade
Fire
Disp.Dist
Disperal Dist
Vegetative
Sprout
Age
Post-Fire
Longevity
Maturity
Tol.
Tol.
Effective*
Maximum*
Reprod Prob
Min
Max
Regen
-------------
------------
--------
-----
-------------
--------------
-------
-----------
----------
--------
cold_st_ld
100
20
4
2
900
900
0
0
0
none
cold_si_ld
100
20
2
2
900
900
0
0
0
none
cold_st_sd
100
20
4
2
300
300
0
0
0
none
cold_si_sd
100
20
2
2
300
300
0
0
0
none
warm_st_ld
100
20
4
2
900
900
0
0
0
none
warm_si_ld
100
20
2
2
900
900
0
0
0
none
warm_st_sd
100
20
4
2
300
300
0
0
0
none
warm_si_sd
100
20
2
2
300
300
0
0
0
none
Name
*Dispersal distances are measured in meters. Cell size is 100m
Species => Environmental niche (warm/cold), light constraints on regeneration (st: shade tolerant / si: shade intolerant),
dispersal capabilities (sd: short distance / ld: long distance).
Tables SM1.2. Succession parameters
SeedingAlgorithm Ward algorithm for dispersal
Shade class (percent maximum biomass (equal to all cells)
Shade class
1
2
3
4
5
Percent maximum biomass
0.5 %
0.9 %
1.1 %
1.4 %
2.0 %
SufficientLight [Describes probability of establishment under different shade
classes for each species trait]
Shade
Intolerant
Shade
Tolerant
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
Tables SM1.3. Disturbance parameters
Methods and results of disturbance calibration
Our objective for the fire calibration was to develop two scenarios with substantially different amounts
of disturbance frequency on the landscape. We based the calibration primarily on disturbance rotation
period (DRP), which is analogous to the concept of fire rotation period (FRP). We borrowed the concept
from fire ecology, and it is suitable in our simulations since we are using a fire extension to simulate
disturbances. Fire rotation period (FRP) is defined as the time it takes to burn an area equivalent to the
size of the area of analysis. Thus, it jointly accounts for the frequency and the area affected by the
disturbance.
The differences between the two scenarios is related to the probability of ignition which is double in the
case of low frequency scenarios. All other parameters remain constant
Disturbance characteristics
Disturbance
scenario
Low
Frequency
High
Frequency
Mean. Event
Size
50
Min. Event
Size
5
Max Event
Size
3206
Ignition
Prob.
0.0001
k parameter
50
5
3206
0.0002
4
4
Fuel Curve Table - Severities
S1
3
S2
5
S3
10
S4
15
S5
20
Disturbance damage (FireDamage)
Cohort age longevity
20 %
50 %
85 %
100 %
Fire Severity-Fire Tolerance
-2
-1
0
1
Results of parameterization - Disturbance regimes characterization
Changes in the probability of ignition result in the characterization of the fire frequency as well as other
disturbance characteristics. In general the low frequency scenario represents a slightly more intense
disturbance albeit lower frequent with lower affection in the landscape. On the contrary High frequency
disturbance scenarios double the rotation period, with slightly bigger disturbance events and maximum
affected area in each disturbance.
Mean disturbance characteristics using 5 simulations of fire for 300 years.
Low Frequency
scenario
High Frequency
scenario
Simulated mean
area affected
(cells)
0.78 %
Maximum area
affected in single
event(cells)
391.20
Simulated mean
severity
4.72
Disturbance
rotation Period
(years).
201
1.11 %
539.60
4.00
106
Figure SM1.4. Climate change dynamics. Plot measuring the niche center
displacement across time during the simulated climatic change. Rates of
increase are slightly accelerating through time.